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Oil Prices Climb on Inventory DrawdownOil prices edged higher on July 3rd, 2024, buoyed by signs of a significant decline in U.S. crude oil stockpiles. Brent crude, the benchmark for international oil prices, for September settlement rose 0.1% to $86.34 a barrel by 10:21 AM in London. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. oil benchmark for August delivery, inched up to $82.88 a barrel. This price increase comes amidst a wider risk-on sentiment in the global financial markets. Equity markets, including the S&P 500, have been reaching record highs, and this optimism appears to be spilling over into the oil market. Inventory Drawdown: A Cause for Optimism The primary driver behind the oil price increase is a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicating a substantial drawdown in U.S. crude oil inventories. According to sources familiar with the data, crude inventories fell by a significant 9.2 million barrels last week. If confirmed by the official figures released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) later this week, this would mark the largest single-week decline in stockpiles since January 2024. A decline in stockpiles indicates a tightening of supply, which can lead to higher prices. This is because crude oil is a fungible commodity, meaning a barrel of oil from one source is generally equivalent to a barrel from another. So, if stockpiles decline in the United States, it can impact global supply and drive prices up. Geopolitical Tensions and Summer Driving Season Lend Support Apart from the inventory drawdown, several other factors are contributing to the current oil price rally. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated around the world, particularly in the Middle East. The ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah, along with potential upcoming elections in France and the UK, are keeping investors on edge. Disruptions to oil supplies from these regions could significantly impact prices. Summer is typically a season of increased demand for gasoline due to vacation travel. While the API report also indicated a decline in gasoline stockpiles, concerns linger about weak U.S. gasoline demand, which could temper the current price uptick. Looking Ahead: Factors to Consider The oil market remains susceptible to several factors that could influence prices in the coming weeks and months. Here are some key elements to keep an eye on: • Confirmation of API Inventory Data: Official confirmation from the EIA regarding the inventory drawdown will be crucial. If the data is validated, it will solidify the current bullish sentiment in the market. • Global Economic Growth: The health of the global economy, particularly major oil-consuming countries like China, will significantly impact demand. A strong global economic recovery will likely lead to higher oil demand and consequently, higher prices. • The Upcoming Hurricane Season: The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st, 2024. If major hurricanes disrupt oil production facilities or shipping routes in the Gulf of Mexico, it could lead to price spikes. • Geopolitical Developments: Any escalation of geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East could lead to supply disruptions and price increases. Overall, the recent oil price increase is a result of a confluence of factors, including a potential decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, a risk-on sentiment in the financial markets, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. While some headwinds exist, such as concerns about weak U.S. gasoline demand, the near-term outlook for oil prices appears cautiously optimistic. In conclusion, the oil market is currently in a state of flux. While several factors currently support higher prices, the path forward remains uncertain. Close monitoring of inventory data, global economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and the Atlantic hurricane season will be crucial for understanding how oil prices will behave in the coming months.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish reversal off overlap supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 82.69 which is an overlap support. Stop loss is at 80.80 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 84.45 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
WTI Crude Oil - 4H Still BullishWTI Crude Oil shows promising bullish momentum as it consolidates above a key static support zone, indicating potential for further gains. The price action demonstrates two major bullish legs, with the current position in the middle of the second major leg, suggesting continued upward movement. Additionally, the presence of a second minor leg forming suggests that the bullish momentum might lead to a breakout, propelling prices to higher targets. Traders should monitor the minor leg’s completion and potential further advances in the price of oil, taking advantage of the bullish trend.
TVC:USOILLong
by Sober_Trading
WTI OIL Testing 9-month Resistance.WTI Oil (USOIL) has so far ignored last week's 1D Death Cross formation and made a strong jump yesterday that isn't about to only test Resistance 1 (84.50, the April 26 High) but also the Lower Highs trend-line, a 9-month Resistance going back to September 28 2023. The 1D RSI approaching the 70.00 overbought level after a Double Bottom at 30.00, which is a pattern we last saw leading to the January 29 2024 High. That was also a Resistance test. As a result, it is now worth attempting a tight SL sell (using that level as stop) and Target 77.00, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, being the target of the February 05 correction. That will also make a technical test of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is again what happened on Feb 05. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
WTI Oil H4 | Pullback support at bullish Ichimoku CloudWTI oil (USOIL) could fall towards a pullback support and potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 80.42 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 79.50 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 82.34 which is a pullback resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
Oil is still under Bearish PressureHello Guys, I see a larger Timeframe Consolidation since some Years from 98 - 70 Dollars. We have approached the middle Line of this Yearly Consolidation Line and see some weekness taking place. However, for this idea to be confirmed I will wait for the black trendline to be broken and have a bearish pattern below it. This may take place from the green highlighted area of 84-86 - a break of the area with a retest would be bringing more optimism from bullish territories into the fields. Below this I believe that we are going to see a leg lower - with the targets being 80 - 75 - 70 Dollars. I will use my trading strategy to enter safely on the lower timeframes. Ideally this will happen on the 2h-4h Chart - but I prefer to enter on the hourly.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by MeruEU
WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) 1-hour chart - SELLThe market is currently in an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. Recent price action suggests a potential reversal or pullback from the resistance zone. Resistance Zone: The shaded grey area around 82.127 - 82.220 is a significant resistance zone where the price has shown rejection. Support Levels: Immediate support is around 80.473 - 80.417, marked by the red lines. A stronger support level is at 77.000, a psychological round number that aligns with previous lows. Above the resistance zone at 82.220, there may be buy-side liquidity where buy stops from short positions could be placed. Below the support level at 80.417, there may be sell-side liquidity where sell stops from long positions could be resting. The overall analysis suggests a bearish bias for USOIL (WTI), expecting a potential reversal or pullback from the resistance zone around 82.127 - 82.220.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by TopGBanks
WTI support continues to attract buyers.WTI - 24h expiry Bespoke support is located at 80.70. Offers ample risk/reward to buy at the market. Our short term bias remains positive. 50 4hour EMA is at 80.73. 80.59 has been pivotal. We look to Buy at 80.75 (stop at 79.95) Our profit targets will be 82.75 and 83.25 Resistance: 81.50 / 82.24 / 83.00 Support: 80.50 / 79.50 / 79.00 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by OANDA
WTI Crude Oil: Geopolitical Tensions and Technical SignalThe US crude oil benchmark, is trading near $82.00 on Monday. This modest uptick is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of increased oil demand during the summer season. Geopolitical Tensions and Market Impact The prospect of a broader conflict in the Middle East, which could threaten crude oil supplies from the region, is fueling the rise in WTI prices. The UN Secretary-General’s statement on Sunday, warning that a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah would be disastrous, has further intensified these concerns. Technical Analysis: Signs of a Possible Retracement Technically, there are signs that WTI might experience a price retracement. The current levels suggest a potential pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement within a bearish channel, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating overbought conditions. This setup hints at a possible near-term correction before any further upward movement. Outlook In conclusion, while geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand are bolstering WTI crude oil prices, technical indicators suggest a potential retracement. Market participants should remain vigilant, watching for price movements around the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the behavior of the RSI in the coming sessions.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by FOREXN1
1
WTI turns lower after surprise crude stocks buildNews of a surprise inventories build in the US has caused oil prices to give up earlier gains and turn lower. The EIA US weekly crude oil inventories came in at +3591K vs -2850K expected and -2547K prior. The 3.6-million-barrel build suggests weaker demand despite hopes that inventories would draw down more meaningfully due to the US driving season. However, gasoline stocks also rose, coming in at +2654K vs -1024K expected, while the refinery utilization fell to -1.3% vs +0.1% expected. As a result, crude oil prices turned lower on the session to take out the lows of the past several days. The key support to watch is at $80.00 – if it breaks this level decisively now then we could see some follow-up technical selling towards $79.00 next. However, if instead oil prices rise to hit a new high on the session, then this would invalidate any bearish signals we may have seen today. So, watch the closing prices attentively. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
2024-06-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil comment: Trading range at the highs but bears printing bigger bars and they broke out of the bull channel that started 2 weeks ago. Measured move down would bring us to around the breakout retest price area 78.5 / 78.8. Bulls still want to break above 82 for 83/84 and test the bear trend lines again. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 80 - 82 bull case: Bulls still see this as a second leg of a pullback around the lower bull trend line and they want to start their third leg (W5) up to 83/84. They need to keep it above 80 or bears might get cheeky and want to push it to the daily ema around 78.8, which would also be a breakout retest. Invalid below 80. bear case: Bears are not able to print two decent looking consecutive bear bars on higher time frames. Until they get much stronger or give up again, best they can probably hope for is sideways around 80. Selling today looks like a leg inside a trading range and not a stronger pullback below 80. short term: Neutral 80-82. It’s moving sideways. Don’t make it more complicated. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Clear key levels given
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
WTI Oil H4 | Bullish uptrend to resume?WTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 80.42 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 79.60 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 84.45 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
1
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to support area 72.631 (Wave 5).Dear Colleagues, as in the last forecast I assume that the price was moving in wave “4” and is currently completing this wave. I expect the wave to start downward movement and reach the support area (minimum of wave “3”) at 72.631. Because this movement will be the development of wave “5” in the ending diagonal. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
10
#202426 - priceactiontds - weekly update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil futures Quote from last week: bull case: Strong week by the bulls with 3 pushes up but still a lower high. Their next target is to get back above 80.22. Right now they have momentum going but big down, big up mostly creates confusion and that means trading range. Above 79.5 I will probably long for 80. They need to stay above 77 or odds favor a retest of the lows below 74. comment: Bulls just had amazing follow through since Monday and have bought everything on lower volume. The tight bull channel is valid and Monday or Tuesday could set up another good buying opportunity. I don’t think bears want to die on that 82 hill and bulls can bring this easily back to 82.5 or 84.5 where two upper bear trend lines run through. current market cycle: big trading range or smaller bull trend inside of it. Triangle is still playing out. key levels: 72-84 bull case: Another very strong week. Can only look for longs in oil currently, until bears show up again. Bulls had two big legs up and want a third one to around 83.5/84.5. The current pullback could continue 1-3 days before more up but bulls should not let it break the lower bull channel around 79.7ish Invalidation is below 79.5. bear case: Bears clearly see the pattern and only doing small intraday scalps until the market get’s nearer to either bear trend line as drawn. The big one started 2 years ago, so you can be sure, there will be a reaction. Not saying bears will be strong enough to reverse it directly but at least stall it around that price area. As of now, bulls are in full control and far above the daily ema. Don’t look for shorts unless strong momentum. Invalidation is above 82.1. outlook last week: “short term: Neutral right under the bear channel line and daily ema at 77.5. Can break to either side.” → Last Sunday we traded 78.45 and now we are at 80.73. Not a good outlook but I would always write the same. As strong as it was before last Monday, it was the high of the trading range and it could have been the top for some days. short term: More sideways to down movement expected (not much down, max 79.7ish) before bulls try the third leg up. Can’t be anything but bullish looking at this chart until bears build bigger selling pressure. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. Market did indeed reversed hard over the past 3 weeks and we are almost at the top of the triangle again, where I expect more sideways movement until one side clearly wins again. Odds favor the bears if they stay below 85. current swing trade: None chart update: Bear channel was clearly broken and therefore removed. Tight bull channel with a 5-wave series added.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
oil crudewe anticipate a long term buy for crude oil based on the following analysis of crude oil which is an amalgamation of both fundamental technical analysis. WTI crude oil continues its upward trajectory, with hourly prices testing the upper bounds of the ascending channel. If the short-term ceiling holds, prices could still experience a rapid pullback. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level stands at $80.02, with larger pullbacks potentially reaching the 50% level at $79.51, followed by the 61.8% level at $78.99 near the channel bottom and the 200-day SMA dynamic inflection point. The stochastic oscillator dropping from overbought territory indicates rising selling pressure, with room for oscillators to decline further before reflecting bearish exhaustion, which suggests that the correction could persist until such exhaustion is observed. The RSI is also trending downward, indicating that crude oil prices may follow suit until oversold conditions are met and oscillators rebound. However, the overall structure shows the 100 SMA above the 200 SMA, confirming that the path of least resistance remains upward, or that support levels are more likely to hold than break. In this scenario, oil prices may continue to rise toward the swing highs around $81.69 or higher. In terms of trading strategy, it is recommended to buy the dips. ENTRY ; 80.00 tp 85 sl 78.80 risk reward ratio ; 120;500 (approximately 5 times more reward). Follow us for such market related updates contents and news boost us for increasing our reach to more people.
TVC:USOILLong
by realmillionairefx
WTI OIL Shifted to longterm bullish, but expect correction firstWTI Oil (USOIL) broke above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and invalidated April's Channel Down. Last time we saw such a Channel Down bullish break-out following a rebound on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) was on December 20 2023 and before that on May 17 2023. The common characteristic was that a 1D MACD Bullish Cross accompanied all those break-outs and the last two formed a 1D Death Cross. On both previous occasions, the price pulled back to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, touching the 1W MA50 again. As a result, even though we have confirmed a new long-term uptrend, we will turn bearish on the short-term, expecting a pull-back towards the 0.618 Fib, targeting $76.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot