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BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 31 July–04 August, 2023: Fundamentals Federal Reserve's Kashkari noted that the door remains open for a rate hike in September as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains data-dependent. He also noted that, as it currently stands, it appears that the US will avoid a recession, and he hopes that remains true. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) President Lagarde noted that the door remains open for a September hike and mentioned that they are closely monitoring the risks of a wage-to-price spiral. She also noted that inflation is undoubtedly falling and that the second-quarter GDP figures for France, Germany, and Spain are encouraging. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its interest rate unchanged at 4.10%. The key notes in their policy statement were: The decision to leave rates unchanged gives them more time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates to date and the outlook for Australia's economy. Inflation in Australia is declining but is still too high. Returning inflation to the 2% target within a reasonable timeframe is still the main priority. Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Deputy Governor Uchida noted that he is cautious about the inflation outlook in Japan. He also noted that Japan is now at a phase where it's important to patiently maintain easy policy and that there is still quite a long way to go before conditions fall in place to raise the short-term rate target. The Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25%. The key notes in their policy statement were: Bank rate vote: 8-1 vs. 7-2 expected (Dhingra dissented; Haskel and Mann voted for a 50 basis point increase). CPI inflation remains well above the 2% target. The labour market remains tight, but there are some indications that it is loosening. Fitch downgraded the US long-term credit rating to AA+ from AAA. According to Fitch, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years in the US, and they forecast a general government deficit of 6.6% of GDP in 2024 and a further deficit of 6.9% of GDP in 2025. Key Data The Eurozone July Preliminary CPI Y/Y came in at 5.3% vs. 5.3% expected and 5.5% prior, while the M/M number came in at -0.1% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.3% prior. The Eurozone Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q came in better at 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected and -0.1% prior. GDP Y/Y also came in better at 0.6% vs. 0.5% expected and 1.0% prior. The Eurozone June Unemployment Rate came in better at 6.4% vs. 6.5% expected and 6.4% prior (revised from 6.5%). The US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.4 vs. 46.8 expected and 46.0 prior. The US Job Openings for June came in worse at 9.528 million vs. 9.610 million expected and 9.616 million prior (revised from 9.824 million). New Zealand's Employment Change (Q2) came in at 1.0% vs. 0.5% expected and 0.8% prior. The Unemployment Rate came in worse at 3.6% vs. 3.5% expected and 3.4% prior. The US ADP July Employment came in better at 324K vs. 189K expected and 455K prior (revised from 497K). US Jobless Claims came in expected at 227K and 221K prior. The US ISM Services PMI came in at 52.7 vs. 53.0 expected and 53.9 prior. The US NFP came in worse at 187K jobs added vs. 200K expected and 185K prior (revised from 209K, and prior months were also revised lower). The Unemployment Rate came in better at 3.5% vs. 3.6% expected and 3.6% prior. Canada's July Employment Change came in worse at -6.4K vs. 21.1K expected and 59.9K prior. The Unemployment Rate came in expected at 5.5%, and 5.4% prior. Technicals  The US dollar had a strong start to the week but had a weak finish against its major counterparts. AUDUSD 1W Chart An indecisive week for AUDUSD. Long wicks on either side of the candle show the indecision. The market has broken under the 20 EMA and bounced off the lower Bollinger band. USDJPY 1W Chart USDJPY was heading towards the 145.073 resistance level until a price rejection spike just under the 144 level at 143.891. Long-term, the market still looks bullish due to the higher highs and higher lows and is also still above the 20 EMA. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD had a pullback to the 20 EMA support, bounced off it, and has now established an ascending price channel. There is potential for another re-test of 1.11000. GBPUSD 1W Chart GBPUSD's potential head and shoulders pattern is forming on the 1W chart; the head and left shoulder have been formed, waiting for a possible right shoulder to now form. The 20 EMA support is very strong at the moment; the market has not been below it for almost six months. The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be: Thursday: US CPI, US Jobless Claims Friday: US PPI, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the trading week ahead. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 17–21 July, 2023: Fundamentals The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its meeting minutes, and the key notes were: Considered holding rates steady or hiking by 25 basis points. Noted the squeeze on household finances and the risk that unemployment could rise more than needed. Inverted yield curve pointed to tighter conditions, slowing growth. The labour market is very tight, with weak productivity adding to labour costs. Annual wage growth is seen rising to 4% in Q3. Consumer spending is currently weak in Q2. A rebound in the housing market will support consumption. European Central Bank member Knot noted that rate hikes past July are possible; however, it is not certain as it looks like core inflation has steadied. Knot noted that he is optimistic to see inflation reaching their 2% target in 2024 but added that there is still a lot of key economic data due to be released between now and September. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda noted that there is still some way to go for the economy to sustainably achieve the 2% inflation target and that unless their assumption on the need to sustainably achieve the target changes, their narrative on monetary policy will not change. Bank of England (BoE) member Ramsden noted that the CPI at 7.9% is still too high despite falling significantly. He also confirmed that he "cannot rule out that the next interest rate cycle will get back to the lower bound and need to have room for new quantitative easing." Rumours coming out of Japan noted that the BoJ is leaning towards keeping yield curve control (YCC) steady next week, citing five sources familiar with the central bank’s thinking as policymakers prefer to scrutinise more data to ensure wages and inflation keep rising. This resulted in Yen weakness, and the currency sold off against its counterparts following the news. Key Data US Retail Sales came in worse at 0.2% vs. 0.5% expected and 0.5% prior (revised from 0.3%). Canadian CPI Y/Y came in at 2.8% vs. 3.0% expected and 3.4% prior, while the M/M number also came in at 0.1% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.4% prior. New Zealand's Q2 CPI Q/Q came in at 1.1% vs. 1.0% expected and 1.2% prior. The Y/Y number came in at 6.0%, vs. 5.9% expected and 6.7% prior. The UK June CPI Y/Y came in at 7.9% vs. 8.2% expected and 8.7% prior, while the M/M number came in at 0.1% vs. 0.4% expected and 0.7% prior. US Housing Starts came in worse at 1434 million vs. 1480 million expected and 1559 million prior (revised from 1631 million). Building Permits also came in worse at 1440 million vs. 1490 million expected and 1491 million prior. The Australian Jobs Report came in better at 32.6K jobs added vs. 15K expected and 75.9K prior. The unemployment rate also came in better at 3.5% vs. 3.6% expected and 3.6% prior. Japan’s Government increased their inflation forecasts for the Fiscal year 2023–2024 to 2.6% vs. 1.7% prior. The US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index came in at -13.5 vs. -10.0 expected and -13.7 prior. US Initial Jobless Claims came in better at 228K vs. 242K expected and 237K prior. Japan's CPI Y/Y came in at 3.3% vs. 3.5% expected and 3.2% prior. Core inflation in Japan is at a 40-year high. UK June Retail Sales M/M came in better at 0.7% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.1% prior (revised from 0.3%). Canada's May Retail Sales came in worse at 0.2% vs. 0.5% expected and 1.0% prior (revised from 1.1%). Technicals  The US dollar rebounded strongly this week against its major counterparts. AUDUSD 1W Chart AUDUSD is now ranging and looking for a direction to continue in. We are still in the symmetrical triangle and have now formed a range zone within the triangle, looking for a breakout to either side. USDJPY 1W Chart USDJPY is on a retracement wave from the recent bearish momentum; the market is back above the 140 level. The market bounced off our support at 137.915, which is the area we had the previous bullish breakout from. Next week is very important; if the Yen's weakness continues, the 145.073 resistance level will be the next target. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD is now retracing the impulsive wave we have had over the past month and a half. There was price rejection at 1.12757, and it is looking to retest the 1.10956 level as support. GBPUSD 1W Chart GBPUSD is back under the 1.30000 level and is currently trading around 1.28500. The market is still in an ascending price channel, with the price action showing consistent higher highs and higher lows. If we get a break and close below the price channel, there is support at 1.24486. The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be: Monday: US Services PMI and Global PMIs Tuesday: US CB Consumer Confidence Wednesday: Federal Reserve Rate Decision Thursday: ECB Rate Decision, US Jobless Claims, US GDP Friday: BoJ Press Conference We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the trading week ahead. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
GOLD speculation, what to expect!Making a top down analysis from higher TF, starting from weekly, looking at the ascending trend line, gold is in uptrend, after weeks of correction that broke the trend line into the strong demand zone, moving to daily TF and seeing a reversal candle stick star pattern on the strong demand zone it could be the end of the corrective move. on 4H TF price is in range between two opposing zone , if the supply is out as in 1937.63 loll there will be a possible rise to next supply zone as in 1967.72 level.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ExtraOrdy
USDJPY I Weekly outlook and trade opportunity!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
4
GBPUSD TRADE IDEAThese are the types of setups I really like to see. several blocks of confirmation stacking up on each other. Buyside was taken as we can see on the 4H chart, we then see a break of structure to the downside after that with an imbalance formed. This imbalance, FVG, as highlighted on the chart falls in the OTE zone of the Fib. I didn't add that because I don't like cluttered charts, so bear with me. On the daily timeframe you can see a clean break of structure with price returning to the orderblock and rejecting off it, Going into this week, I would like to see price head lower to the fair value gap below and possibly the lows. Just my opinion though, Don't take my word for it. #GBPUSD #dollar #tradeidea
Short
by shady_sage
COLPAL- Weekly/Monthly Timeframe-Channel BreakoutNSE:COLPAL COLPAL is looking bullish in weekly/monthly time frame. Last month there was a rejection from the top. However, it did not receive follow up for bearish momentum. Instead, stock has took support on last month’s closing levels 1590-1600. This is the good opportunity to go long if monthly/weekly candle closes near 1700-1710. We may see a big upside momentum in upcoming months. SL: 1580-1585. This idea is only for educational purpose, please manage your risk accordingly.
NSE:COLPALLong
by Rushikesh_09
Gold long idea Based on the weekly market structure the following statements can be made: - Following the previous 3 week's trend, we are looking at a classic market maker dump&pump scheme. 1) price is dropping on Monday and thuesday. 2) On Wednesday price normally makes a fakeout to the downside, trapping breakout traders 3) Market makers pump prices to the opposite direction on thuesday, collecting the liquidity from the trend. We have 5 confluences for bullish price action: 1) Price touched a 4h orderblock 2) Price broke below a previous low, creating a discounted price on Wednesday. 3) price created a triple wick rejection with bullish engulfing candle on the 1h chart 4) We have trapped volume from wednesday's New York session 5) selloffs are bought back instantly (seen on the 5m chart) Trade wisely, Peter
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by peti199