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Nifty 50: October week 1 Weekly Market SetupWeekly Review Nifty 50 declined by 0.18% last week to close at 19,638. The major meltdown was seen on last Thursday (weekly expiry) where the index lost close to 200 points where it touched its key support around 19,495 as per our expectations too. While broadly market is now showing mixed sentiments and is largely looking to be a stock specific trading only. Week Ahead:, On Daily charts, technical indicators shows bulls giving a good fght to pick up pace for what all the gains were lost in previous few weeks. Momentum is starting to build u but higher levels at 19,740-795 remains key hurdle to continue the larger rally. On the lower side 19495, 19438 and 19376 are important support to hold on. From levels perspective, I believe it has been quite a downfall and we should see some uptick or a sideway markets now but to say further the outlook would completely depend on how Q2 numbers starts rolling out and what holds post RBI’s MPC meeting results. *Disclaimer*: I am not SEBI registered analyst and hence the above market outlook is for only educational study and research purposes only. In no way do I endorse this opinion to take a trade or for any investments in markets in any form by any Participant. Be a responsible investor with proper risk management and keep learning as a true focus.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by chandakpulkit
Nifty 50: Meltdown @19,600Week Ahead: On Daily charts, the index has lost all its momentum even though the fall has slown down but it has left huge runaway gaps between daily candles. Ideally such situation woul need to trade within crucial candles range and be mindfull of taking trades when Index trades near the gaps, as the saying goes, most of the time index always closes on gaps. From levels perspective, Nifty is still vulnerable to fall around 19,600. Key levels aroun here are 19,502-19,595 and much on lower side are 19,386 , 19,326-19,230. If the markt settles around 19,600 then a move beyond 19,795 will make the fog clear around the botton of this last week’s meltdown.
NSE:NIFTY
by chandakpulkit
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 18–22 September, 2023: Fundamentals The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the Meeting Minutes of its September meeting. Key notes were: They considered raising rates by 25 basis points or holding rates at the September meeting. The economy still appears to be on a narrow path by which inflation returns to target and employment grows. They are concerned about productivity growth not picking up as anticipated and service inflation remaining an issue. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) Villeroy hinted that the ECB has currently finished hiking; other key mentions from him were: The ECB will maintain interest rates at 4% for a sufficiently long time. The current ECB rates are at a good level; it is better to be patient now. Once inflation is back to around 2%, rates can start to fall again. The Bank of Canada released the minutes of its September meeting. Key notes were: The lack of improvement in underlying inflation is a major worry. They anticipate that rising oil and gasoline prices will push inflation up in the coming months. The balance between economic supply and demand will play a pivotal role in determining future core and total inflation. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25% to 5.50%, as expected. At the following press conference, Fed Chair Powell spoke, and key notes from him were: Growth in real GDP has come in above expectations. Labour demand still exceeds supply. Expects labour market rebalancing to continue, easing upward pressure on inflation. Inflation remains well above their long-term goal of 2%. Getting inflation down to the 2% target still has a long way to go. The Fed is prepared to raise rates further if appropriate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left interest rates unchanged at 1.75%, which came as a surprise as the market expected a 25 basis point hike to 2%. The Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, which also came as a surprise as the market expected a 25 basis point hike to 5.50%. The bank vote also came as a surprise, as the bank vote was 4-5 vs. 8-1 expected (Bailey, Broadbent, Dhingra, Pill, and Ramsden voted to hold). Key Data New Zealand Services PMI came in worse at 47.1 vs. 48.0 prior. The US Housing Starts data came in worse, while Building Permits came in better. Housing Starts came in worse at 1.238M vs. 1.440M expected and 1.447M prior (revised from 1.452M). Building permits came in better at 1.543M vs 1.443M expected and 1.442M prior. The UK CPI came in worse across the board: CPI Y/Y came in worse at 6.7% vs. 7.0% expected and 6.8% prior. CPI M/M came in worse at 0.3% vs. 0.7% expected and -0.4% prior. Core CPI Y/Y came in worse at 6.2% vs. 6.8% expected and 6.9% prior. Core CPI M/M came in worse at 0.1% vs. 0.6% expected and 0.3% prior. The New Zealand Q2 GDP came in better across the board: GDP Q2 Y/Y came in better at 1.8% vs. 1.2% expected and 2.2% prior. GDP Q2 Q/Q came in better at 0.9% vs. 0.5% expected and 0% prior (revised from 0.1%). The US jobless claims came in better across the board: Initial claims came in better at 201K vs. 225K expected and 221K prior (revised from 220K). Continuing claims came in better at 1662K vs. 1695K expected and 1683K prior (revised from 1688K). The Australian Manufacturing PMI came in worse; however, the Services PMI came in better. Manufacturing PMI came in worse at 48.2 vs. 49.6 prior. Services PMI came in better at 50.5 vs. 47.8 prior. The Japanese CPI came in mixed across the board: Japan CPI Y/Y came in worse at 3.2% vs. 3.3% prior. Japan Core CPI Y/Y came in better at 3.1% vs. 3.0% expected and 3.1% prior. The UK August retail sales came in worse across the board: Retail sales Y/Y came in worse at -1.4% vs. -1.2% expected and -3.1% prior (revised from -3.2%). Retail Sales M/M came in worse at 0.4% vs. 0.5% and -1.1% prior (revised from -1.2%). German PMIs came in better across the board: Manufacturing PMI came in better at 39.8 vs. 39.5 expected and 39.1 prior. Services PMI came in better at 49.8 vs. 47.2 expected and 47.3 prior. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in mixed across the board: Manufacturing PMI came in worse at 43.4 vs. 44.0 expected and 43.5 prior. Services PMI came in better at 48.4 vs. 47.7 expected and 47.9 prior. The UK Services PMI came in mixed across the board: Manufacturing PMI came in better at 44.2 vs. 43.0 expected and 43.0 prior. Services PMI came in worse at 47.2 vs. 49.2 expected and 49.5 prior. Technicals A mixed week for the forex majors, a bad week for GBP, especially with another week of worse-than-expected data leading to more weakening for the currency. AUDUSD 1W Chart AUDUSD held strong above the support level at the yearlow low and is trading comfortably above the 0.64000 area. The market briefly went above the 0.65000 area, which has not been seen since the end of August. USDJPY 1W Chart USDJPY is quickly approaching 150. The market is now trading just above the 148 level. The 150-level line lines up perfectly with the top of the ascending channel. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD is still continuing to head downwards after the support break of the rising wedge. A doji candle has formed on the 1W, which signals indecision, so we must be wary of this. GBPUSD 1W Chart GBPUSD is continuing its bearish momentum after the wedge support break. The next support area is around the 1.22000 level. The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be: Monday: German IFO. Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence Wednesday: Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes, Australia Monthly CPI, US Durable Goods Orders Thursday: Australia Retail Sales, US Q2 Final GDP, US Jobless Claims Friday: Japan Tokyo CPI, Japan Unemployment Rate, Japan Retail Sales, UK Q2 Final GDP, Eurozone CPI, Canada GDP, US Core PCE We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the upcoming trading week. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
5
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 11–15 September, 2023: Fundamentals Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Governor Ueda stated that his focus is on a "quiet exit" to avoid significant impacts on the market. Other key mentions from him were: They could have enough data by year's end to determine whether they can end negative rates. The BOJ will patiently maintain an ultra-loose policy. Wage increases are beginning to push up service prices. The key is whether wages will keep rising next year. Bank of England’s Mann noted that she prefers to use Economic Rates of Return (ERR) on the side of overtightening; other key mentions from her were: If she is wrong and inflation and the economy drop more significantly, she wouldn't hesitate to cut rates. We all need to prepare for a world where inflation is more likely to be volatile. The European Central Bank (ECB) hiked interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, bringing the interest rate to 4.00% vs. 3.75% prior. At the press conference, President Lagarde highlighted the slowing of the Eurozone economy. Other key mentions from her were: Rates will remain at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary. Rates were hiked to 'reinforce commitment to our target'. The economy is likely to remain subdued in the coming months. In the coming months, inflation will fall. Key Data The UK August Payroll came in worse at -1K vs. 30K expected and -4K prior (revised from 97K): The July unemployment rate came in as expected at 4.3%, up from 4.2% prior. July employment change came in worse at -207k vs. -185k expected and -66k prior. The German September ZEW survey came in worse at -79.4 vs. -75.0 expected and -71.3 prior. The Japanese PPI came in better month over month and came in as expected year over year. PPI M/M came in better at 0.3% vs. 0.1% expected and 0.1% prior. PPI Y/Y came in as expected at 3.2% and 3.4% prior (revised from 3.6%). The UK monthly GDP came in worse at -0.5% vs. -0.2% expected and 0.5% prior. The US CPI came in better year on year and came in as expected month on month: CPI Y/Y came in better at 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected and 3.2% prior. CPI M/M came in expected at 0.6% and 0.2% prior. The Australian August Jobs Report came in better across the board. Employment change came in better at 64.9K vs. 23.0K expected and -14.6K prior. Full-time employment came in better at 2.8K vs. -24.2K prior. Part-time employment came in better at 62.1K vs. 9.6K prior. The unemployment rate came in as expected at 3.7% (same as prior). The US jobless claims beat expectations across the board. Initial Claims: 220K vs. 225K expected and 217K prior (revised from 216K). Continuing Claims: 1688K vs. 1695K expected and 1684K prior (revised from 1679K). The US retail sales came in mixed across the board: Retail sales M/M came in better at 0.6% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.5% prior (revised from 0.7%). Retail sales Y/Y came in worse at 2.5% vs. 2.6% prior (revised from 3.2%). The US August PPI came in better across the board: PPI Y/Y came in better at 1.6% vs. 1.2% expected and 0.8% prior. PPI M/M came in better at 0.7% vs. 0.4% expected and 0.4% prior (revised from 0.3%). The New Zealand Manufacturing PMI came in worse at 46.1 vs. 46.6 prior. Technicals There was a strong end to the week for the US dollar after a slow start to the week against its major counterparts. AUDUSD 1W Chart AUDUSD again tested the 2023 low at 0.63646 and found support there. There was more bullish momentum at the support level this week to take the market near the 0.65000 level, which the market has not seen in a couple of weeks. The outlook on this pair is bullish, as it looks to be oversold. USDJPY 1W Chart USDJPY is quickly approaching 150. The market is now trading just under the 148 level. The 150 level lines up perfectly with the top of the ascending channel. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD is still continuing to head downwards after the support break of the rising wedge. The market has now broken below the 1.07000 handle, and there is an area of support around the 1.06000 level. GBPUSD 1W Chart GBPUSD is continuing its bearish momentum after the wedge support break. There is an area of support near the 1.23805 level. The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be: Monday: New Zealand Services PMI, Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes, US Building Permits, and Housing Starts Wednesday: UK CPI, FOMC Policy Decision Thursday: New Zealand GDP, Swiss National Bank Policy Decision, BoE Policy Decision, US Jobless Claims Friday: Japan CPI, Bank of Japan Policy Decision, UK Retail Sales, Flash PMIs for Australia, Japan, UK, Eurozone, US We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the upcoming trading week ahead. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
4
Nifty 50 Weekly Market OutlookWeekly Review Nifty 50 continued to fall for the 5th week straight. The index has retraced -3.64% from its all-time highs. Although in mid-week bulls tried to outnumber the bears as index witnessed a good rally till 19,585 levels but was soon rejected as it faced huge selling pressure pushing the index to 19,265 with a gap down opening the very last day of the week. Week Ahead : On Daily charts, the Nifty 50 index seems to form a falling wedge which shouldn’t go unoticed as we have seen a euphoric rally in past mid week. This indicates a strong push by bulls to regain their fort but that’s a conditional outlook if the index is breached beyond the falling trendline (downward sloping-upper trendline) with sustained move till 19,300-19,375. A break above 19,600 is a crucial resistance for any rally beyond that level and given the fact that market still holds 19,494 as crucial level. On the lower side if the selling pressure weighs heavy, a possibility of 19,194 , 19,076 and 18,977 can’t be ignored.
NSE:NIFTY
by chandakpulkit
New week, new opportunities!I’m expecting the week to start and take all of the liquidity above those highs (red dots). The volume of that move higher will be very important to take into consideration. The issue is, the week needs to make a new low and that fact alone will probably give bears an advantage from my POV. To make a significant low on the weekly, price will probably have to break H4 structure and if it does, the next demand that I’ll be paying attention is around 1.075. As traders, we need to take into consideration different scenarios and how to act upon them. So here’s how I’ll trade next week. If price starts breaking bellow Fridays low, I’ll start looking for shorts aggressively and considering the possibility that it will reach 1.075. When it does, I’ll look for longs, because price should take liquidity from above, before continuing with bearish momentum if that’s the case. Also important to notice that level is inside weekly demand and if it breaks, the bearish momentum would be very aggressive. I don’t consider that as likely to happen, unless there’s some catalyst from high impact news. The other scenario that I’ll be looking for, is price holding Fridays low and continue higher to take the liquidity as mentioned above. In that case, I’ll consider shorts from around 1.097 BUT since price is coming from daily demand it will depend on how it gets there and even if I take positions, I’ll manage my expectations about the results. Monday and Tuesday don’t have any high impact news, which is perfect for price to grind higher, which is my main expectation for the beginning of the week. Wednesday there’ll be PMI data on EU and US, should be very volatile. Thursday, unemployment claims from the US and Friday consumer sentiment and Powell speech after. The goal is to remain truthful to the plan and enjoy trading for what it is!
Long
by CirculoForex
Thursday BTC Analysis (07/20/2023) - Weekly BTC Analysis Welcome to the first episode of our weekly BTC analysis, where we carefully examine the market to identify the most likely setup that could unfold. Over the past few weeks, the market has been confined within a tight range, with prices fluctuating between 31,500 and 29,500. Despite several attempts to break out on both the upside and downside, none have been successful so far. Currently, the recent price action seems to be tilting towards a potential breakdown rather than a breakout to the upside. This observation raises caution as the lack of significant positive momentum, despite positive news and uptrending traditional markets, suggests that BTC might face downward pressure. Notably, even amidst positive developments in other markets, BTC has remained sideways throughout this period. If these events fail to push the price higher, there is an increasing likelihood of a downward move towards the 28,000 mark. Additionally, we need to consider the impact of options expiring on Friday, which has tended to be bearish three out of the last four weeks. As we are already at the bottom of the range and the increased volume from these expirations may contribute to a potential slide down towards 28,000. If the options give a lot of selling pressure. Thank you for taking the time to read our analysis, and we look forward to sharing more market updates and trade ideas in our upcoming episodes. Don't forget to follow us for regular insights and updates!
Short
by MoneyBagTrading
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 14–18 August, 2023: Fundamentals The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes of the August 2023 policy meeting, where the central bank kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.1%. The key notes from the meeting were: The board considered raising rates by 25 basis points, although they saw a more credible path back to the inflation target with cash rates at the current 4.1%. The need for further hikes would depend on data and the assessment of risks. The board agreed it was possible some further tightening might be needed. Inflation is heading in the right direction, though service inflation is still too high. The Federal Reserve's Kashkari noted the steady progress on inflation in the US due to the positive inflation readings but stated that inflation is still too high and that he remains wary of the risks of letting go too early, as they do not want to make the same mistakes as they did in the 19070s when they stopped hiking interest rates too early. He did also note, however, that at some point next year, the Federal Reserve may need to lower rates and that the economy is currently exceeding expectations. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.5%, as expected. Key notes from their policy statement were: New Zealand's economy is progressing as anticipated. Headline inflation and inflation expectations have declined, but measures of core inflation are still too high. The Committee is confident that with interest rates remaining at a restrictive level for some time, consumer price inflation will return to within its target range of 1 to 3% per year. In the following press conference, RBNZ Governor Orr noted that he is encouraged to see inflation fall, although it is still too high. He also noted that they are very comfortable with where the current interest rate is and that there was not much discussion of a rate cut; therefore, it was easy to reach consensus on the unchanged decision. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July FOMC meeting. The key notes were: Most participants said inflation risks could require further interest rate hikes. A number of participants warned of the risks of accidentally tightening policy too much. A couple of participants favoured holding interest rates steady at the July meeting. Most participants said inflation was still 'unacceptably high,' and more evidence is needed to be confident that price pressures are diminishing. They no longer see the economy entering a mild recession this year. A number of participants said the labour market is still 'very tight,' although signs are emerging that labour demand is in better balance. Key Data Australian wage data for Q2 came in worse across the board: The Wage Price Index Y/Y came in worse at 3.6% vs. 3.7% expected and 3.7% prior. The Wage Price Index Q/Q came in worse at 0.8% vs. 1.0% expected and 0.8% prior. The UK July Jobs Report showed another increase in wage growth, with the unemployment rate rising again. The unemployment rate came in worse at 4.2% vs. 4.0% expected and 4.0% prior. Average weekly earnings came in better at 8.2% vs. 7.3% and 7.2% prior (revised from 6.9%). The US July retail sales came in better across the board: Retail sales M/M came in better at 0.7% vs. 0.4% expected and 0.3% prior (revised from 0.2%). Retail sales Y/Y came in better at 3.17% vs. 1.5% expected and 1.6% prior (revised from 1.49%). The UK July CPI figures were mixed across the board: CPI Y/Y came in expected at 6.8% and 7.9% prior. CPI M/M came in worse at -0.4% vs. -0.5% expected and 0.1% prior. Core CPI Y/Y came in better at 6.9% vs. 6.8% expected and 6.9% prior. Core CPI M/M came in better at 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior. The Australian Jobs Report figures came in worse across the board: Employment change came in worse at -14.6K vs. 15.0K expected and 32.6K prior. Full-time Employment came in worse at -24.2K vs. 39.3K prior. The unemployment rate came in worse at 3.7% vs. 3.5% expected and 3.5% prior. The US initial jobless claims came in better, while continuing claims came in worse. Initial jobless claims came in better at 239K vs. 240K expected and 250K prior (revised from 248K). Continuing jobless claims came in worse at 1716K vs. 1700K expected and 1684K prior. Japan's CPI Y/Y came in better at 3.3% vs. 2.5% expected and 3.3% prior. The UK retail sales came in worse across the board: Retail sales M/M came in worse at -1.2% vs. -0.5% expected and 0.6% prior (revised from 0.7%). Retail Sales Y/Y came in worse at -3.2% vs. -2.1% expected and -1.6% prior (revised from -1.0%). Technicals The US dollar had gained some ground against its major counterparts across the board this week. AUDUSD 1W Chart AUDUSD has broken its 2023 low at 0.64583 and is approaching its 2022 low at 0.61702. The symmetrical triangle on the 1W chart was broken to the downside, and if the 2022 low of 0.61702 is also broken, then the long-term target level will be the psychological level of 0.60000. USDJPY 1W Chart A strong start to the week for USDJPY as the pair broke the 145.073 resistance level and also broke 146 before finding resistance at 146.564. The market is now on a pullback and is trading back in the 145 area; 145.073 will most likely be support now. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD is approaching the bottom support line of the rising wedge. We are looking for swings with less momentum and for them to have lower highs and lower lows to show signs of possible reversal and break the wedge. GBPUSD 1W Chart GBPUSD's potential head and shoulders pattern is still forming on the 1W chart; the head and left shoulder have been formed, and the right shoulder is now forming very well. The market has now reached the 20 EMA support; therefore, the reversal of the bullish trend may come quicker than expected. The 1.26800 support has not had a close under it for 2 months, so for the potential reversal to occur, there must be a break and close under 1.26800. The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be: Wednesday: New Zealand Retail Sales, Global PMIs, Canada Retail Sales Thursday: US Jobless Claims We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the upcoming trading week ahead. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
6
Gujarat Fluorochemicals: Symmetrical Triangle breakout CMP: 2916 | Industry: Chemicals P/E: 26.3 | Industry P/E: 29.9|ROE: 13.7% | ROCE: 27.1% |BV: INR 503 | EPS: INR 111| MCAP: 32,033 Cr. Aggressive Entry: 2,916 | Resistance Levels: 3,152 | 3,552| 4,076 Stop Loss: 2,680 Confirmation entry levels > 3,049 | CCI: -82 | EMA (9d): 2,793 | S. RSI: 25 Analysis: GFCL has been in the formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern since June 2022. It has rejected to break out from a declining trendline twice previously in Oct’22 and May’23. This time stock seems to be in strong momentum with rising volumes for 2 weeks consecutively. Momentum indicators are recovering from Oversold regions and with an uptick in direction too. If the stock closes above 3,049 entries can be taken for the nearest breakout levels of 3,152, 3,559 and the long-term target of 4,076. In case of pattern failure stop stands at close below 2,680.
NSE:FLUOROCHEMLong
by chandakpulkit
Bullish on Nifty equal weight relative to Nifty 50?Nifty 50 Equal Weight index to Nifty 50 index relative strength (NIFTY50EQUALWEIGHT/NIFTY) chart seems to have broken out of an ascending triangle type consolidation on the weekly time scale. The price action on the relative strength chart has broken out of the consolidation and has completed the retracement on the support/resistance zone. Will we see a continuation of the bullish breakout? If the breakout is successful, we are likely to see bullish price action on PSEs, PSU Banks, Pharma, and Metal stocks while Banks and IT stocks are likely to face headwinds.
NSE:NIFTY50EQUALWEIGHTLong
by vipulmehta817