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Weeklymarketsanalysis

EURUSD Trying to reach Crucial 1.1600 level and Weekly 50EMA !For a long while, EURUSD has been confined in descending wedge and currently hovering at the descending trendline of the wedge. By looking at the current weekly charts, the price shows thats its confined in a wedge. last year the price action formed head and shoulders pattern, adding to this the neckline was also broken to confirm the pattern completion. On A long term scale based on technical analysis the price is forecasted to continue its decline further below. However in this particular case, EURUSD seemed to be focused on targeting the ascending trendline of the wedge before making its next move!. So what are the confluence factors supporting this statement? we will be analyzing them below First of all, have a look at the current weekly charts. the price seemed to have bottomed for now and its slowly ascending higher. technically there is a channel present on the daily charts that needs to be broken in order to confirm this move. have a look at this image below of daily charts showing the price confined in the channel For the channel to break on the daily charts, the price needs to break the ascending trendline and retest slightly before we can go LONG on this trade. our target would be focused on the weekly 50 EMA where also the 1.16000 level resistance lies!. We can opt to take this pair further LONG in the near future if the weekly EMA 50 breaks and could target 1.1700 level Fundamentally this pair is under pressure as donald trump is pressuring the FED not to raise rates and 2019 seems is likely to be slow as FED might not raise the rates more than 2 times or it can be even less. the trade war seems also to be showing its effect in some major economic calendar events not in favor of the USD. To add to this, the EUR itself is not doing so great but on the balance of things taking this pair LONG seems to make sense for now. Once the criteria are met i will post the update to this trade in the comments below. For i am just waiting for the channel to break on the daily charts before i can think to take action. stay tuned for any updates
Long
by FX618Analysis
Canadian interest rate decision and CPI inflation data in focusBoc and inflation During the upcoming trading week traders and investors look to a key interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada and important CPI inflation data from the United States and Chinese economies. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged after a series of disappointing data points from the Canadian economy and a sharp downturn in the value of Crude Oil. Aside from the BOC rate decision and CPI inflation data releases, we also have Canadian Ivey PMI manufacturing figures and the US ISM non-manufacturing report this week. The eurozone economy releases key retail sales and unemployment data and the ECB Monetary Policy Accounts. Monday 7th January, EUR EU Retail Sales EU retail sales represent the sum of goods and services sold monthly at all eurozone retail outlets. The report acts as a measurement of consumption and consumer confidence. Consumer confidence and economic growth signal an increasing number of sales which would fuel the eurozone economy. Higher consumption can lead to inflationary pressures which may result in the European Central Bank adjusting its monetary policy. • The EURUSD pair is bullish while trading above the 1.1430 level, key resistance is found at the 1.1490 and 1.1550 levels. • If the EURUSD pair moves below the 1.1430 level, sellers will likely test towards the 1.1360 and 1.1300 support levels. Tuesday 8th January, AUD Australian Trade Balance The Australian Trade Balance is released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and is the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over a reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported and is known as a trade surplus if the exports exceed imports. The Trade Balance is essential to forecast long-term trends in foreign exchange rates and has historically been one of the more important reports out of Australia. • The AUDUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 0.7080 level, key support is found at the 0.6960 and 0.6800 levels. • If the AUDUSD pair moves above the 0.7080 level, buyers may test towards the 0.7150 and 0.7240 levels. Wednesday 9th January, CAD BOC Rate Decision The Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision is a decision of the governing council members on where to set the nations interest rate. Market consensus has formed that the Bank of Canada will not hike rates this week due to uncertainty in the domestic and global economy. After the actual interest rate decision, the central bank releases a policy statement that contains the BOC’s collective perspective on the economy and also ideas about future monetary policy. • The USDCAD pair is bearish while trading above the 1.3450 level, key support is found at the 1.3280 and 1.3160 levels. • If the USDCAD pair moves above the 1.3450 level, buyers are likely to test towards the 1.3555 and 1.3680 resistance levels. Thursday 10th January, CNY Chinese Consumer Price Index The Chinese Consumer Price Index, released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, measures the change in the price level of a market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. CPI is a key indicator that measures inflation and changes in purchasing trends and is closely watched by the PBOC. CPI is one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation or deflation. • The NZDUSD pair is bullish while trading above the 0.6650 level, further upside towards the 0.6730 and 0.6800 resistance levels seems possible. • If the NZDUSD pair moves below the 0.6650 level, sellers are likely test towards the 0.6580 and 0.6510 support levels. Friday 11th January, USD US Consumer Price Index US Consumer Price Index is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and evaluates the fluctuations in the cost of living by measuring the changes in prices consumers pay for a set of items. CPI is used as the headline figure for inflation, as inflation reflects a decline in the US dollars purchasing power, which means that the US dollar depreciates and is therefore capable of buying fewer goods and services. In terms of an inflation measurement, the Consumer Price Index is the most obvious way to quantify fluctuations in purchasing power. • The USDJPY pair is bearish while trading below the 109.30 level, further losses towards 107.50 and 106.20 levels still remains possible. • If the USDJPY pair trades above the 109.30 level, buyers are likely to test the 110.00 and 110.55 resistance levels.
by OctaFX_Official
NAS100 Weekly Market AnalysisSince the price has broken below 6200, a 13-month demand zone, the trend has been confirmed as a reversal into a downtrend. Since then, NAS100 has been retracing from its low for the past 2 weeks, and this week may just be the final week of its retracement. As seen during last Friday after NFP, the US Stocks is still seen quite bullish, showing no sign of stopping from further gains. NAS100 is expected to rise further this week and will enter the key supply zone immediately. Once this major retracement is completed, there's gonna be enough indications to sell such as the completion of AB=CD formation, the 61.8% retracement level, the falling trendline and the support zone itself.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by AlgoVenture
Dollar Weekly Market Analysis 7th - 11th JanDespite an unexpectedly high job number was reported during NFP, the unemployment rate jumped by 0.2% and Fed Powell talking down on its currency has caused the dollar to maintain its bearish stance. As seen on the chart, the price as constantly breaks lower for every rising trendlines that appeared along the way. Finally, a falling has formed while the price kept creating lower highs and lower lows. The dollar is expected to continue falling towards 95 where it will meet with some very strong support. As of now, it is very clear that the dollar is heading downtrend and it also seems that Donald Trump is not happy with how strong the dollar currently is.
TVC:DXYShort
by AlgoVenture
SPX500: Years-End-Analysis! RETEST of 2.600 is pretty likely!Hey Tradomaniacs, welcome to another weekly overview of SPX500! Let`s take a look at the year and what we see is a huge but delayed Sell-Off compared to the european market! SPX500 started this year @ 2.666 and was struggeling since then! adter the first sell-off in January 2018 loosing more than 12% we`ve seen the first signs of fear and panic. The uncertainty continued until April before the market decided to give it anotther try and we`ve "bought" an uptrend to the SPX500 ATH @ 2.940! What a run - But the double-top-pattern came 8 days later and caused a new massive sell-off! The breakout and retest of the Trendchannel confirmed the panic and cause more bearish power. We gave it another attempt.. and bounced off again. The S&R-Flip was cut in stone. The last attempt was just a desperate act of team Bulls..but they had to surrender. GG WP? The next break below this "Tripple-Bot / Tripple-Top ala range was a volatile walk on a knife edge, and the high volume continuation of the sell-off confirmed that. We`ve retested two converging trendlines and the Range of Feb. 2017 - June 2017 which is almost at the 1.618 Extension of the first Sell-Off! A retracement as a retest of the recent support @ 2.600 is pretty likely and should give the bulls another chance to turn this game into their favour. Technical Aspects: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Overall you can see the market is still very freaking volatile and attractive to daytrade. After the recent massive sell-off below the low of the YEAR at 2.530, team BEARS didn`t stop until we`ve reached the low of two converging trendlines @ 2.2321. We´ve retraced 38,2% but it should be pretty likely to retest at least the years low or the 61,8% retracement, which is excactly at the previous support (2.600). The Wave-Count is not complete anymore.. I don`t know why, but it just dissappeare and I`m a lazy person! ;-D You can see that we are still in a correction. The question is: Will this still be a correction? Or do we head into a downtrend? We are currently in WAVE 4 of WAVE (Y) (which is actually WAVE C).. but I think it`s easier to understand that way. It`s pretty likely to see a retest of 2.600! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- All fundamentals are pretty bearish! Looking at the FED`s policy and its plans to increase the interest rate we will ahve to expect way less liquidity, consume and investments in the market. THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR THE WALLSTREET ;-D We will see what happens! I WISH YOU A HAPPY NEW YEARS EVE! Enjoy the time with family and friends! :-) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Trading2ez
EUR/USD: The years-end-analysis - Likely to see PARITY!Hey Tradomaniacs, welcome to another weekly overview of EUR/USD! Let`s take a look at the year and what we see is a huge Sell-Off aswell! EUR/USD started this year @ 1,19873 and found our years high @ 1,25628 in feburary. After that we`ve just consolidated in a range between the peak and 1,22. FED`s rate hikes consistently punished the EUR which was affected by many different political circumstances like Brexit, italy, france and so on. The European Central Bank decided to quit the QE not as expected - But these might be the first signs of a hawkish policy. But will we seriously see a rate hike this year? I don`t think so. What is the consequence of the financial crisis in 2008? The ECB did nothing else than shifting a problem with financial injections by a ZERO-interest-rate-policy and the Money-Print-Rage + the QE. I bet you`ve heared about the quantity equation. The best way to fight inflation is to increase the interest rate. Since the recession is slowly on its way to destroy our economy again indicated by a cooling down economy and stockmarket the ECB can not just increase the interest-rate in 2019 as planned and Draghi probably wont even increase them during his term. Why? Because the only way to suppor the economy is cheap debts/money/credits. Technical aspects: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- After the break through the Neckline we`ve seen a test of the 61,6% retracement and could show us the first impulse after the breakout of this S/H/S-Pattern. the next move is a retracement back to the trendline, where we bounced off again and created a doji aboce the candles body. Is all this a retracement ala kissback before we continue the journey to the south called "parity"? The FED`s policy is pretty hawkish because Jerome Powel has officially confirmed that the FED-PUT is gone. He won`t take a look at the Wallstreet anymore and prefers to take the economy and its climate as his indicator for his monetary policy. The S/H/S-Pattern target would be @ 1,05 which is between the 1.414 and 1.618 Fibonacci-Extension. The time-Zones are pretty accurate and should be taken seriously. Conclusion: I`m more bearish but it`s all up to the political situations around us in Europe plus the ECB`s upcoming desicions. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We will see what happens! I WISH YOU A HAPPY NEW YEARS EVE! Enjoy the time with family and friends! :-) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
by Trading2ez
GOLD: Years-End-Outlook! We are at the CRUCIAL ZONE!Hey Tradomaniacs, welcome to another weekly overview of Gold! Let`s take a look at the year and what we see is crazy! Gold started very well with the years-end-rally of 2017 and retestet the High of 2016! Technical aspects: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gold was steady inside a range of 1.303 - 1.365 and broke through the important support of 1.280! This caused a massive sell-off as every else down to to low of 1.160 which got stronger after we`ve violated the trendline which started at the low of November 2015. And as always - the 61,8% retracement was the bulls HEROS which is @ 1.183 and is the current support after this sell-off. We`ve started to retrace up to the trendline again and are currently at a VERY crucial ZONE. This ZONE is a very strong resistance and should be decisive for the next move! We are at the 61,8% retracement of the previous sell-off which is at the trendline Addotionally we`ve almost reached the 1,61% extension-level of the bulls whose bought this retracement. Time to take profit or stack up positions? Is all this a downtrend and we continue after this retracement? Or will this turn out to be a fakeout and we continue the uptrend above the trendline? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamentally I see a lot of potential in Gold which alwys used to be a safe haven in bloody stock-markets. The inverted yield-curve used to be a very reliable indicator for a upcoming recession and could change the cashflow out of stocks into alternatives like gold! We will see what happens! I WISH YOU A HAPPY NEW YEARS EVE! Enjoy the time with family and friends! :-) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor
TVC:GOLD
by Trading2ez
MDA Trade + Multi time frame Analysis + Target +Risk Management TRADING STRATEGIC BINANCE:MDABTC Hi everyone, today's idea is about MDA on Binance, its one of the strongest digital assets that Ive seen. I actually was waiting for this correction to end for a week now, MDA is currently at the point i would be interesting to buy in. Therefore, I am presenting my trading plan for MDA. Spot on DEC 17: Personal Note: It also shows I have developed more patient and discipline for waiting Assets to fit into my trading conditions. Chart Analysis: -Chart Time frame: 1D - 4H -Timeframe: 1W -1M 1)-Weekly Chart: Since the time frame of this trade is 1W up to 1M its fair to show an analysis of weekly chart, my opinion one of the most important time frame for analysis. So lets get started! by mentioning that MDA is trading above all weekly SMA, also it is above two dense support zones created at 14000 and 20140 satoshis ( It can be seen as a horizontal channels), in other words MDA has broken 2 important resistances and its currently forming a DOJI candle shape at multiple time frames (1W-1D-12H 4H) this is extremely due to its psychology behind it. Ive also observed a continuation pattern that take form in a symmetrical triangle due to a massive week on from Oct 1st to 8th. In my mind this pattern should have been an ascending triangle, but greed has shown and making it symmetrical instead. Moreover, we can see in the weekly char bellow an Elliot wave triangle correction countdown: where A) its at 0.236 Fib Lvl-- B) almost touching 0.786 Fiv Lvl-- C) just above of a 0.236 Fib Lvl and trend line-- D) a 0.618 Fib Lvl --E) Above 0.382 Lvl. Naturally I am expecting a breakout from E wave. Snapshot: Personal Note: Im trying to get better at reading weekly time frames charts. 2)-Daily Chart: As we previously mention price has hit downtrend resistance ( top of Symmetrical triangle) with a daily green 9 and moved towards a 6 days correction. currently daily candle has formed another DOJI, previous candle has a large wick that indicated how momentum is reversing or decelerating. Stoch RSI is about to cross but until then we dont have certainties , RSI is almost at its 50s considering it very neutral. This time frame its telling me that trend could respect the trends inside symmetrical triangle, However we can still go down and test it out. Snapshot: 3)-12H Chart: MDA is showing a nice red 9 with a long wick after that looks like price is a in a consolidation stage. Previous false breakout almost success bulls pushed hard for days however fear took place and respect previous resistance send MDA Lower prices. 12H chart its all about over sold: RSI and Stoch RSI are in oversold territory, which basically means that My entry is gonna be around this range. Magnus cycle shows how its 3 lines are collapsing once this happen its a good indication for a breakout. Snapshot: 4) -4H Chart:Here is were the consolidation is happening looks like an ascending triangle or and horizontal channel, while i was writing this post a spike just happen and its currently breaking up resistance, lets see if it can hold it. Snapshot: 5)-1Hr Chart: I just want to point out in this chart the magus cycle, and how all 3 lines where collapsing this is a good indication and confirmation of a breakout as I previously mentioned. Snapshot: Conclusion: MDA has displayed strength during bear and bull markets, people or investor have shown interested on it. However if MDA violates technical conditions, ill be looking a lower entry. In the other hand I believe that it will hold the downtrend of symmetrical triangle and we could breakout from it. if that happen my trade management will be the following. TRADE MANAGEMENT: Trade entry: 0.00021600 Stop Loss: 0.000213800 -Targets: Risks/Rewards: -Risk/Reward Ratio: 155.62 -Risk per trade: 1.08% If you enjoy this analysis dont hesitate like and follow. Until the next time! No Fear just trade!
MLong
by vfxvictor
2
U.S. Dollar Weekly Market AnalysisThe dollar was rejected from 97.7, a 19-month demand zone, and fell for 4 consecutive days (if we include Wednesday too). Although the Fed raise rate from 2.25 to 2.5 as expected, the dampening of fewer rate hikes in 2019 is taking a toll on the dollar. The dollar managed to recover fully from last Thursday drop but may not continue so as it is now resisted by a demand zone coupled with the previous rising trendline. There's little reason for the dollar to break new high again as economic data is also seemingly weaker than expected recently. And most importantly, the market is still very uncertain with Fed's commitment towards 2019 rate hike as well. The dollar is likely to make further low and the very first new low in 3-months has appeared last week. The dollar may fall as far as 95.6 where it will meet with very strong support - a 2-months demand zone sitting on the bottom of a 7-months rising channel, and 95.6 was the most important level back in mid-2019.
TVC:DXYShort
by AlgoVenture
1
EURUSD Weekly Market Analysis 24-29 DecIt will be a holiday week for the EURUSD and thus EURUSD will be very little affected with extremely low data releases. The EURUSD was appreciating steadily last week for 4 consecutive days and finally plunged on the last trading day during the past few hours before the week ended. This is largely due to the closure of long positions held through the week. The price closed slightly towards the downside of a range between 1.148 and 1.127. The last daily candle shows a strong selling pressure which could lead to further depreciation at the beginning of the next trading week. A strong supply zone is seen at the bottom of the range just below 1.1300. However, if the price resumes appreciation immediately, we are likely to see the price breaking new high and out of the range. That will lead to the completion of the 2nd wave of its current major retracement which will probably stop near 1.16, a 2-months demand zone. There's only German Prelim CPI to take note of for news releases which fall on a Friday and is unlikely to bring any significant impact to the overall trend.
Long
by AlgoVenture
4
Dollar Weekly Market Analysis 17-21 DecFor the first half of this trading week, the dollar has shown weakness as it reached a peak at 97.7. Although the Fed is expected to raise rate later during the Fed Funds Rate release, the market is also expecting lesser rate hike later in 2019. The dollar is well expected to drop further to key level 96.4, an important supply zone. The trend of the dollar will be set by the tone of the FOMC meeting minutes where the market shall reaccess the number of rate hikes in 2019.
TVC:DXY
by AlgoVenture
SPX: Weekly outlook! Best price to buy?Hey tradomaniacs, welcome to another outlook of the S&P500! Tuff times and volatile markets are giving Swingtraders hard times to trade the market. On the other hand, we`ve seen much volatility and perfect preconditions for daytrading! :-) The S&P500 as the "world index" should be on your watchlist to observe the market carefully! Will we crash? Or can we stay above the panic-zone? SPX500 is currently dancing between 2.600 and 2.800 since 03. October! With two rallys after the the Sell-Off the market was trying to get above the 2.800 but coouldn`t make it. Every rally has got totally invalidated by the market due to uncertainity driven by news over news. The MAC-D is showing us a "Bullish divergence", creating higher lows, while SPX lows are going sideways! Overall we have seen more bearish commitment, it seems the market wants to safe profits as fast as possible. The political situation is cooling down and relationship between China and teh USA seems to be headed in the right direction. If cruide oil climbs, we could see more optimism and at least another try to break through 2.800! Cann we holf 61,8% retracement and 2.600? We will see! :-) I wish you a great start into the new week! LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
SP:SPX
by Trading2ez
1
Dollar Weekly Market AnalysisThe dollar was not able to break higher since mid-November and is seen weakening amid lowered expectation on rate hikes. The dollar has quietly crept below a rising channel, signalling that the price may start to weaken. The Fed members are now feeling that the current rate is either close to neutral or has already achieved neutralisation. The means that the pace of the rate hike will be slower than what the market has initially anticipated. That in itself also provides an opportunity for other central banks to catch up with the Fed on interest rate and may cause the dollar to start weakening against other major currencies as a result.
TVC:DXY
by AlgoVenture
USDJPY - Weekly Market AnalysisThe yen could strengthen against the dollar further as the dollar starts to turn weak on weakening Fed hike expectation. USDJPY was seen breaking below a symmetrical triangle and a demand zone was created as a result which may aid the price to fall further. The dollar may retrace higher at the beginning of the week and that will cause USDJPY to retrace back into the demand zone. When that happens, wait for a clear reversal signal to short. The price will most likely fall beyond 112 into a 3-month supply zone.
by AlgoVenture
DAX: WEEKLY OVERVIEW! Look at his divergence!#Buychance?Hey tradomaniacs, quick a weekly overview of the DAX. It all plays out as the S/H/S-Pattern pre-determined. Technically we`ve seen a decent correction and sell-off below the 10.000, which has not been touched for more than 8 years. The sell-pressure is more than obvious and clear. But can we recover? Is that a trigger for panic? Or rather a chance to buy as cheap as never before? NOONE KNOWS! My first target is the 10.583 and should be the next decent support-level! But what about the US-Markets, whose seems to be upbeat not willing to violate the previous lows of the year? If we don`t head downwards the DAX could possibly get "support" by the Wallstreet. During the last week we`ve seen alot of important news that could support the wallstreet this month! 1. OPEC finally agreed to reduce the discharge of oil by 1,4 mio barrel a day. 2. NFP-Data way worse than expected. A weak economy means no the FED could possibly abstain from its policy and decrease the amount of rate hikes, which would weaken the US-DOLLAR and push the economy (still liquidity) and oil! But there are still important things like the brexit, tradewar, italy and so on! What will happen? Noone knows! For now, I`m still bearish but I see the potential auf a change before we crash next year! :-) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Leave a like and a comment - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
XETR:DAX
by Trading2ez
BITCOIN UPDATE: A possible path of Bitcoin to the bottom to 3k?Hey tradomaniacs, Keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding love.. - Where will go we go? - Where is the end? - When is the price low enough for the big banks to seize? We don`t know but ther is ONE fact and ONE advice for everyone! Don`t try to catch the bottom - or rather.. don`t try to catch a knife! :-) Be patient.. as soon as the see a trendchange we might get a chance to stack up our positions! :-) But for now, we`ve gotta wait and see how much BTC can bleed without getting knocked-out! We will survive my friends! ---------------------------------- Leave a like and a comment - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me! Any questions? PM me. :-)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Trading2ez
2