Dollar: Weekly Forecast 22nd - 26th JulyThe dollar has shown resilience this week as the price was supported twice by the demand zone at 96.7 and has begun to climb again.
The price has previously broken above a falling trendline thus signals for the price to climb further
After this week, the price has completed 2 waves of retracement where the price is now seen rebounding off from key demand zone at 96.7.
The dollar is ready to proceed with another wave of bullish trend this week despite the fact that the Fed is most likely to cut rate this month.
The dollar still holds the highest interest rate after all and it is still a considerably good safe-haven asset to hold.
Weeklymarketsanalysis
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 22nd - 26th JulyThe bullish structure which EURUSD had before this week has turned sour as the price failed to break the supply zone at 1.128 but instead fell back to the range bottom at 1.12 again.
In this week, simply wait for a pullback and look for sell opportunity between 1.124 and 1.126.
Among all the major currencies, the euro is certainly fundamentally weak which is caused by the ECB signalling to introduce QE or cut the rate deeper into negative zone.
EURCHF Likely To Fall Further After Support & Trendline Break!Oh make no mistake, technically most of the EUR related are starting to show a strong bearish pattern . EURUSD could tumble to 1.09000 level in the coming months even on the back of a weaker USD!.
The above link is shows the analysis behind the EURNZD which has a potential to drop . However since many central banks are shifting towards easing, typically in this scenario fundamentally makes the SAFEHAVEN FX currencies perform the best. CHF being one of the SAFEHAVEN alongside the JPY in my view would be best performers against the EUR in the coming months!
Have a look at the main chart weekly TF chart of the EURCHF. The horizontal lines are concrete support and resistance taken from the monthly TF. At the moment i am awaiting the monthly candle to close beneath the orange support located at 1.11000 level for added confluence. Furthermore, we have a long term trendline which has been violated on a weekly TF, for added confirmation that is why its advisable to wait for the monthly candle to close below orange line. This would confirm the broken support turned resistance and channel has been officially broken!
The next support lies at 1.06000 level, where the price could potentially head towards. This seems like a big PIP move but if you look at the fundamental factors, we are seeing the ECB shifting their monetary policy to accommodate the changes which would likely result in EURO depreciation over long term.
I am seeing the monthly would close comfortably beneath the support by the end of this month and then its advisable to execute the trade SHORT with the target of 1.06000 and RR of 1:1.
This just represent my analysis on this pair and i feel this a high probability trade setup in play. shall there be any trade entries i would post them in a new post.
BTCUSD Weekly TF Analysis From FX Trader Point Of View!My interest in cryptocurrencies is second to none, however i thought of executing my technical analysis that i perform on Actively Traded FX pairs to BITCOIN. First of all i am a SWING trader, meaning i analyse my charts from monthly TF down upto daily or 4 hourly. My strategy relies on finding concrete support and resistance levels from the monthly charts to finding supporting technical patterns on lower TF to add to my confluence.
Here on the BTCUSD chart the monthly chart does not give any info what so ever, so i decided to look at the weekly TF. The first thing i did was to plot all the concrete support and resistance levels from the weekly TF (have a look at the main chart). At the moment of writing the price is in between the 10,000 support and 12,000 on weekly TF. Adding to this, the price seems to be capped by a descending trendline which is preventing the bitcoin bulls from pushing higher. currently the market is giving me neutral bias as i feel the cryptos are mostly driven by technical trading rather than fundamental ones with exceptions of breaking news which affects cryptos immediately without any warning.
So below are the two possible scenarios which should potentially take place for the price to make its next move, be it UP/DOWN
1) FOR A BULLISH SCENARIO
The price as explained is capped by a descending trendline. So for the price to push higher not only must the trendline break (weekly candle closes outside the trendline) but also the 12,000 resistance level needs to be broken (weekly candle should close above 12,000 level). If this takes place we have confirmed the trendline and resistance breakout. so finally for the trade entry, its advisable to await slight retracement before executing a LONG trade to target the next resistance that lies at 14,000 level
2) FOR A BEARISH SCENARIO
Have a look at the image above. its a daily chart of BTCUSD which shows the price confined in a well held triangle supported by an ascending trendline. For the bearish scenario to take place, the price needs to breach the ascending trendline (weekly candle must close outside the trendline). Once this has happened we can wait for the price to retrace and enter a SHORT trade to target the next support that lies at 8,000 level
IN ALL TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIO THE RISK TO REWARD RATIO IS SUGGESTED TO BE 1:1 WITH THE POTENTIAL STOP LOSS PLACED JUST ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LEVEL OR BELOW THE SUPPORT LEVEL.
IN FX trading i do a combination of fundamental and technical analysis which gives me an extra added confluence to validate my trade, however in this case, the pure technical price action picture is telling me the above two possible scenarios. if you notice, trading with risk management is about taking out the support or resistance levels one at a time rather than aiming for 20,000 or 40,000 impulsively! With Bitcoin or other crypto market being so volatile, in my view its best to take this approach so as to preserve your capitals.
Hope some of you will find my outlook helpful and i will certainly in the future think about adding cryptos to my trading portfolio. cheers and trade safe
Ascending Channel+H&S Pattern In Favor Of EURNZD Bears! Have a look at the main weekly TF chart of EURNZD pair. From here its clearly visible that the price is confined in an ascending channel which has been held on numerous occasions. However at the moment the price seems to be too aggressive to the downside and has potentially violated the channel pending today's weekly candle close!
The four horizontal red lines represent solid support and resistance levels taken from the monthly TF. Just below the trendline there lies a psychological 1.65000 support level , which in this case is a must to be broken level in order to confirm a bearish outlook. For this level to be broken i would personally prefer the monthly candle to close below 1.65000 level .
Furthermore, there is an almost complete H & S pattern on the chart , which would be complete when the trendline/channel breaks together with the 1.65000 level. In this case the potential 1.65000 turned resistance would also act as the neckline of the H & S . So to put all this together in favor of the bears there 3 concrete confluence factors to take this pair towards the next support that is present at 1.58000!
Fundamentally the Euro is weak at the moment and is predicted to get weak in the coming months, whereas the NZD shows a mixed outlook. So putting all this together the probability of this pair breaking down is HIGH.
Shall there be any updates regarding the trade entries i will post them in a new post. This just represents my outlook on this current pair
Gold: Weekly Forecast 15th - 19th JulyThe gold has been consolidating for the past 3 weeks since it peaked at 1439.
It is still unclear if the price will eventually break above or below the consolidation but the long-term view is most definitely a bullish one as the Fed proceeds with cutting rate.
For buyers, traders can consider buying at the bottom of the consolidation at 1393 if the price falls before breaking above 1420.
For sellers, traders can consider selling starting from 1420 but avoid selling if the price closes above 1427.
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 15th - 19th JulyThe dollar fell as the Fed reaffirms its intention to cut rate end of the month.
The price climbed at first but was rejected by a supply zone near 97.6, wiping out all gains and turning it into a bearish week for the dollar.
In this week, the dollar is expected to fall further but will meet with support at 96.4 due to a probable inverse HnS.
If the price climbs at first, look for resistance near 97 to sell.
Apart from the technical perspective, this week is filled with important U.S. data that is strongly connected to inflation which is an important factor for how aggressive the Fed will proceed with its rate cut.
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 15th - 19th JulyEURUSD has made a successful rebound off the demand zone as the Fed clearly signalled for a rate cut by the end of July.
However, the gain was somewhat curbed by a dovish ECB as well which also signalled for more QE.
In the H4 chart, the price has technically completed an ABCD formation and has started its 2nd wave of a bullish trend which is most likely to continue in the coming week.
If the price continues to climb, watch out for 1.135 as the 2nd shoulder of an HnS could form.
In conclusion, EURUSD is expected to climb further this week and traders can consider buying again if the price retraces closer to 1.125.
Events to Look Out for Next WeekBy Andria Pichidi - July 6, 2019
An interesting week is coming up, following a confirmation that the US and China will resume trade negotiations.Market attention is also honed in on the central banks, as Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress. In the UK, the focus turns to GDP.
Monday – 8 July 2019
Industrial Production and Trade Balance (EUR, GMT 06:00) – In Germany, the surplus is expected to increase to EUR 18.6 bln in May, from EUR 17 bln in the previous month. Overall exports are clearly impacted by geopolitical trade tensions and the risk of US tariffs on auto imports from the EU is still hanging over the manufacturing sector and spells further troubles ahead. Meanwhile, Industrial Production is expected to be corrected -0.4% m/m in May, from -1.9% last month.
Tuesday – 9 July 2019
JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not been filled on the last business day of the month. May’s JOLTS job openings is expected to rise slightly at 7.479M, following the 7.44M in April.
Wednesday – 10 July 2019
Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – June’s Chinese CPI is expected to drop to -0.1%. The overall reading is estimated to be unchanged.
Gross Domestic Product, Manufacturing & Industrial Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The GDP is the economy’s most important figure. May’s GDP is expected to be lower at -0.7% m/m following the -0.4% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have increased, with industrial output providing an upwards contribution of 1.5% m/m in February, while manufacturing is projected to have risen to 2.3% from its -3.9% last month.
Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00) –Last time, Bank of Canada held the policy rate setting steady at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations, while the statement was largely optimistic in terms of the growth outlook. The expectations remain for no change of the policy outlook from the BoC through year-end, with the next move expected to be a modest rate hike in late 2020.
FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) -The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. In the last FOMC statement, on June 19, FOMC left rates unchanged but the statement, which removed the word “patient”, along with the inflation outlook, the dot-plot, and Bullard’s dissent in favor of easing, made for a dovish stance.
Thursday – 11 July 2019
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to hold at 1.3% y/y for June.
Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – May’s CPI has been estimated at a -0.1% drop for headline PPI in June, and a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI, slowing from a 1.8% pace in May, and a 2.1% y/y rise for the core, versus 2.3% in May.
Fed Chair Powell Testimony (USD, GMT 14:00)
Friday – 12 July 2019
Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to hold at 0.1% in June, and at 0.2% in the core index. These readings would keep in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI. We see y/y headline readings in a 1.3%-1.9% range over coming months, while core prices should be in a 2.1%-2.5% range.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Gold: Weekly Forecast 8th - 12th JulyAfter 6 consecutive weeks of bullish candles, the gold finally closed with a bearish candle last week as it fell into a range between 1437 and 1383.
The gold plunged during NFP and was supported and pulled back sharply from a demand zone near 1390.
The gold was not able to keep breaking new high mainly because the US and China have called a truce for their trade war and also the dampening of more than one rate cut this year by the Fed.
However, the fact that the Fed can no longer raise rate, the trade war still exist and other global risks, the gold is still fundamentally strong and is expected to climb further in the very near future.
Traders can actually attempt to buy gold as soon as the market opens and support is still seen at 1390.
This is probably the point C of the Elliott wave correction after the 5th wave has ended at the high of 1438.
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 8th - 12th JulyEURUSD plunged the most in 4 months as well for the same fundamental reason as the dollar.
However, what's slightly different as compared to the dollar technically is that the price did not pull back as much.
The price was seen supported and started to pull back from a demand zone just above 1.12 but it managed to close above the bottom of a rising channel.
Nevertheless, if the price continues to climb at the beginning of the week and manage to climb back into the channel, the break will be invalid and the price could climb further.
Also, this was the 5th Elliott wave and price could potentially reverse or retrace strongly back to 1.13 or beyond.
For buyers, look to buy near 1.12 and aim for 1.126, 1.128 and 1.135.
For sellers, only consider selling when the price breaks and closes below 1.12.
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 8th - 12th JulyThe dollar has its strongest weekly gain in 4 months as NFP data has shown strong employment, dampening the bets of more than one rate cut by the Fed this year.
However, the dollar found strong resistance as it attempted to pierce through a falling trendline and got rejected by a strong supply zone around 97.3.
The price kept falling until the market closes and managed to close just below the falling trendline and the supply zone, showing a sign of successful resistance.
The dollar is most likely to experience consolidation in the first half of the week as the market awaits the FOMC meeting minutes and Fed Powell to testify.
If the dollar were to inch higher and close above 97.3, the price will climb further and test 97.7.
If not, the dollar will most likely fall again and test the immediate support at 96.6.
US Dollar Currency Index / W / Weekly Forex Analysis / 7.7.2019Hello Traders, welcome to the Weekly Forex technical analysis. Today is July 7th, 2019 and we will be taking a look at the U.S. Dollar Currency Index on the weekly chart just to get into the calendar, and have an outlook into the upcoming week of July 8th. Looking at the Dollar Index here on a weekly time frame, we can see the DXY rebounded significantly from last week. Overall the DXY picked up a lot strength heading into this week and will be looking at 97.63 and 98.34 as resistance areas. On the other hand if we don't get any momentum to the upside, we will be looking for 96.02 for an area of support. If that breaks, our next level of support would be looking for is the 95.08 region. Thank you for tuning in please feel free to write a comment or leave some feedback, any advice is greatly appreciated. Have great day and good hunting out there traders!
USD/JPYThe dollar yen pair has passed, and it's currently retesting the important support/resistance at the 108,000 price level. To testify the importance of this level, on the weekly chart it can be seen that it coincides with the fibonacci retracement 0.618, tested several times during the last two years.
From a fundamental point of view, what reinforces my idea of going short is the expectation that the FED will actually decide to lower interest rates, hence a possible depreciation of the dollar.
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 24th - 28th JuneEURUSD dipped lower on the second trading day last week as Draghi hinted an additional stimulus if needed.
However, the dollar has weakened so much as the Fed turned dovish and raise the expectation of a rate cut in months to come.
The price soared for 3 days and closed high before the market closes, creating another long bullish candle similar to 2 weeks ago.
Nevertheless, the upside is still quite limited and since the euro is also facing weakness of further stimulus, the price will still be somewhat tamed.
In this week, we will continue to wait for a retracement before going for a buying opportunity, the first level seen at 1.1355, followed by 1.1340.
Gold: Weekly Forecast 24th - 28th JuneThe gold price surged and broke out of close to 3 years consolidation and is heading towards a 6-year high in the coming week.
The gold has gained close to 60 dollars last week with the biggest one seen on Thursday hours after the Fed has signalled for a probable rate cut in the foreseeable future.
The market is expecting a maximum of 2, if not, 1 rate cut as early as September this year and that would potentially mean a crisis for the dollar.
As for the gold price, all losses have been recovered earlier this year and before the Fed signals for a rate cut (or holding interest rate), yet the price has climbed so fast before any rate cut.
On the monthly chart, the price can easily climb further and beyond 1500 but will meet with strong resistance at 1590.
It is almost guaranteed that gold will continue to climb for the next 3 months if the trade war persisted and global interest rate continues to edge lower.
In this week, we will wait for the price retrace lower and test 1388, followed by the demand zone at 1382 to look for a buy opportunity.
Weekly Outlook: Brent Crude forms double bottom patternBrent crude has fallen almost $15 since its 2019 peak of $75, forming a double bottom pattern which aligns with the 61.8% Fib level of the Dec 24 - Apr 25 move.
Crude inventories came in higher than expected for the last six Wednesdays, which played an important role in the $15 fall.
However, a possible escalation of tensions in the Middle East after two tankers were attacked earlier this week may support oil in the coming days.
If the double bottom pattern shows to hold, a break above $64.70 may target $67.20, followed by $70.50.
Events to Look Out for Next WeekA policy-packed week, with monetary policy meeting in the world’s major economies (Fed, BoJ, BoE), and the potential for guidance regarding future interest rate actions, albeit cuts in the prevailing rates are expected. In UK, voting race begins for the next Prime Minister. In the data-front, ficus turn on inflation and Retail sales.
Monday – 17 June 2019
Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) – The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament Treasury Committee.
Tuesday – 18 June 2019
RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA Minutes are expected to shed some light regarding an eventual rate hike (RBA is cautiously optimistic on growth, inflation).
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Prices are expected to fall in May to just 0.3%m/m from 0.7%, whilst the overall inflation expected to stand unchanged at 1.2%y/y.
ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for June is expected to rise slightly at -0.5 compared to -2.1 last month, however the negative reading means pessimists once again outnumber optimists and that escalation in US-Sino trade relations affect the outlook.
Wednesday – 19 June 2019
Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to move up in May, with overall inflation to increase at 2.2%y/y, compared to 2.1% y/y last month.
Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – May CPI is expected to run at a 2.0% y/y pace, matching the 2.0% clip in April and coming in just ahead of the 1.9% clip in March.Hence, the focus is on the "core" CPI figures.
Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) –Fed easing expectations having plateaued (Fed funds futures now fully discounting a 25 bp rate cut by the July FOMC). However, there is not much of a chance for a rate move next week, but the FOMC is anticipated to make an important change in its statement, removing the word "patient" and likely replacing it with language similar to Powell's comment from June 4 where he said the Fed will be "closely monitoring the implications of these developments" on trade and other matters.
Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 22:45) - The Q1 GDP is expected to grow at 0.7% compared to 0.6% last quarter, while at an annualised rate should fall to 1.8% from 2.3%.
Thursday – 20 June 2019
Interest Rate Decision (JPY, GMT 02:00) –The BoJ should maintain its current extraordinary level of stimulus as they wait and see how global growth progresses this year. Hence policy is expected steady once again. Among the core central banks, the BoJ is firmly poised to be "low for longest".
Interest rate Decision and Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – BoE should remain on hold now until the Brexit D-day, while the Brexit process has essentially been frozen in motion as the Conservatives go about the business of selecting a new party leader/prime minister. If the transition runs smoothly we could see another 25 bp hike quickly thereafter. The consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting and an unchanged 9-0 MPC voting.
Friday – 21 June 2019
Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – The Preliminary Manufacturing PMIs in Germany and Eurozone are expected to increase in June, to 44.5 and 48.1 respectively.
Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) –Canadian sales are expected to slip 1% in April, with a 0.9% gain excluding autos, following a 1.1% figure for the March headline and a 1.7% increase ex-autos.
Markit Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to increase in June, to 52.5 and 53.2 respectively.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
WEEKLY XRPUSD ANALYSIS (CONSOLIDATION BEFORE RISE)TECHNICAL:
Currently, the pattern shows we are in Level 1, after being confirmed with a break 0.46 USD Cents zone, and is now consolidating before moving upwards towards the next Peak at 0.48 Cents USD.
There is a possibility that price action might continue to consolidate downwards towards the KETCHUP (13 EMA), however, if it does that, it will most likely PIN the KETCHUP.
In my opinion, the most probable move will consolidate around the MUSTARD (5 EMA) before moving upwards to complete the Level 2 move up to 0.52 cents area.
This is before another consolidation down to the 0.48 Cents area, before a massive push upwards towards 0.58 cents, possibly even towards the $1.00+ zone at a later date.
FUNDAMENTAL:
There are a huge number of reasons why I forecast this... Here are just a few
* XRP is now being adopted and prepared to be used by some of the largest Asian banks. The SEC court case does not have any standing with banks within Asia when interbank transfers occur, outside of the USA or its jurisdictions.
Thus the sheer volume will push market pressure upwards, once the xRapid/xCurrent service is used in the real market.
* COMEX RULE 589
(NO NOTHING TO DO WITH THE 589 EOY 2018 SILLINESS)
Directly affects the price of XRP in this context, as it is rumored that XRP will be linked to the price of gold. Rumor or not, it has affected the market somewhat already and continues to do so.
* GEOMETRY: We are at the start of a Bull Market, as well as market geometry shows we are about to break out of a major triangle, towards the upside. Usually, breakouts of this magnitude (in the Weekly) will produce spectacular gains
TDI shows RSI is also at level 1 position, although we have a current RSI (at time of writing) of 49.82, coming from the lower part of the RSI map, the market has made a particular move which should show a Bounce off the Blood (which is around the same area as the KETCHUP 13 EMA on the chart), in order to complete the Level 1 marker and progress through to the Level 2 move. The move is still currently AFP (Away From Peak), until we get closer to the confirmation peak area, which was previously broken.
As RSI is in the 40s area, we can also expect continued push upwards towards 80 RSI in the coming months. Remember this is a Weekly chart, not an hourly or daily.
Next chart I will post will be the XRP DAILY, to see if we can get some synergy with both and the overall trend.
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DISCLAIMER:
These are my analysis, my opinion, I give no guarantees and I'm not responsible for any losses that you may occur if you trade this, whether you buy crypto or trade it in the CFD market. If you want to trade this chart, do your own analysis and make sure you have a good money management plan in place. If you want to learn more about trading, here is a good place to start: babypips dot com
I generally post my own analysis in BTMM format, although I am proficient in Crypto Patterns, Gartleys, Butterflies, Pattern Trading, Elliott Wave Trading, Pitchfork, Trendline, VSA and Price Action trading, for which I may from time to time post additional analysis including some of these other methods.
I don't answer to bullies, trolls or charlatans. If you want to genuinely debate me, post a proper analysis, but don't post a blank chart with words or claim you are a 'WE' and have some magical algorithm or secret, I will not waste my valuable time to answer you. I'm posting this chart here for my own personal record and to share with those that may appreciate it, with the hope that it can help someone better their life.
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EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 10th - 14th JuneEURUSD had the biggest gain in 10 months and the price has broken above a 5-month falling channel and closed just above a 3-month supply zone at 1.33.
The reversal of a bearish trend came after the price found support at a 2-year demand zone and consolidated for more than a month.
We can't be certain if this is a major or a temporary reversal but without a doubt, the price is going to climb higher.
If the price retraces at first, look for buy opportunity at 1.13 and the current projection of this bullish trend should at least reach 1.15.