#EURUSD Weekly Analysis: Divergence, Double Bottom, Short & LongTraders, here is my quick analysis of EURUSD. I am expecting it to go upwards and then fall back down. That can give us very good opportunity for short and then long positions.
Hit the like button and send me your comments how are you going to trade EURUSD. Thanks!
Weeklymarketsanalysis
Weekly chart for NEM : Bullish near term, mid cycle analysis
Lets have a look on what's happening with NEM. We are in the mid range of the larger cycle on weekly charts and we may be seeing a minor bottom on the smaller cycle as evident in the chart. This large upward spike in the chart on the weekly candle may also be a sign of exhaustion or a partial entry to a testing zone/ congestion area
$46 to $49 would be expected to be a resistance zone on the FIB ext levels. Price may test this zone and then look for support. Minor support expected between $40 to $43 levels and intermediate support between $35 to $38 levels
From RSI perspective, the November 2019 weekly bottom on the major cycle, showed a bullish support on RSI and in the whole rally that has ensued since then, we have seen price 35% over the last 12 to 14 weekly candles. Price targets were revised upwards given the bullish upwards move in Gold. Also, price has not yet shown signs of being overbought, price action may still have some upward move as indicated above
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Week Results: China, the euro and oil problemsThe past week has already habitually passed in the analysis of news around the coronavirus. The main result was the restoration of economic activity in China, which greatly reassured investors, and they returned to the usual occupation in recent years - the purchase of risky assets. As a result, US stocks updated historic highs.
At the same time, one cannot but note the opposite trends - gold was in stable demand, but oil was under pressure. This already indicates that investors are seriously worried about the consequences of the epidemic, which are primarily manifested in a sharp decrease in demand for energy assets (the International Energy Agency even predicted the first quarterly decline in oil market demand in 10 years).
Investor fears are much easier to understand than optimism in stock markets. Fears are something rational: it is not clear what real economic damage China and the world as a whole will be caused by the epidemic. Do not forget that the root of the problem may lie not even in the fact of a slowdown in economic activity, but in the ability of China to service its debts, which have already reached 300% of GDP. And the epidemic is still only growing: the number of deaths has approached 1700, and the number of infected has exceeded 50,000 (according to WHO).
But optimism is something from the field of irrational and emotional. Since we believe that, in the long run, proponents of a reasonable assessment of the markets will be right, we, therefore, continue to recommend sales on stock markets as well as purchases of safe-haven assets.
Speaking of sales in the US stock market. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced that they will reduce the volume of interventions in the repo market. That is, cash injections will decrease. Which is very likely to provoke a decrease in demand in the stock market.
In addition, this week we will look for opportunities for sales in the oil market. At least, if there is no news that Russia has decided to support Saudi Arabia and agrees to increase the volume of reduction in oil production. Well, or the epidemic will rapidly decline.
In addition, this week we will continue to look for points of sale for the euro. The single European currency after a series of weak economic data, including a failure in industrial production, and close to zero GDP growth Euro zone looks extremely vulnerable.
As for macroeconomic statistics this week, on the whole we are waiting for a relatively calm period. So, the markets will continue to follow the news from China and work out them first of all.
Weekly Chart of Nifty 50@jagrut
Weekly Chart of Nifty 50
Since 2017, every correction in Nifty has found support near to Monthly Kijun Sen which is currently at 11200. So ideally current correction should found support around the levels for 11100-11200.
On Weekly Chart, after the correction the index has consolidated around the Ichimoku Cloud. The levels for the same comes to around 11000-11200.
Trend-line support also lies around the levels of 11000-11200.
Correction period has lasted for 7 - 11 weeks.
For educational purpose.
Weekly Inside Bar - Reversal next week - BUY AUDNZDGood afternoon traders,
The AUDNZD is creating an inside bar on the weekly time frame.
This is a strong reversal signal when at a major support or resistance level.
RBA Interest Rate decision next Tuesday. Due to a turn around in the housing market, as well as strong employment figures, the RBA could hold interest rates steady.
Jump down to a daily time frame there is also a bullish divergence on the RSI.
Any thoughts and comments welcome!
EURUSD Weekly Look .EURUSD is still perfoem the triple complex correction.
.It finished wave A form ABC now it is performing B wave upward
.A long term point of view is it will reach the area 1.1730 before he go down again in C wave
* Be notice that this analysis is a long term look and maybe it will take months to finish it especially when the all moves is a correction
#AUDUSD - A Pullback For Huge Opportunity - Weekly AnalysisHi Traders, AUDUSD is pulling back as expected pretty much like EURUSD. However because in recent weeks it has been creating new highs, we can expect it to continue with that. This current pull back with USDollar over sold, we can get a very good opportunity to go long. We must watch the zone carefully and any sign of bullish movement. The zone has confluence of 38.2 Fib, Round Number 0.6900, trend line and 200 sma.
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USDJPY: Weekly Forecast 6th - 10th Jan 2020A new major bearish trend has just begun for USDJPY.
It was seen coming since it broke below a 42-month rising channel in early August 2019.
The price has consolidated upwards from a low of 104.47 for nearly 5 months.
And finally, the price broke below the 5-month rising trendline, turning USDJPY into a bearish structure.
Await pullback and sell at the supply zone seen around 108.60.
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 6th - 10th Jan 2020EURUSD climbed further and broke above 1.1200 as expected, as well as the pullback following after.
The last FOMC minutes was unsurprising as the Fed will keep rate unchanged which may cause the dollar to extend weakness.
While the dollar is fundamentally stronger than the euro, short-term sentiment favours a weaker dollar and so is the current technical structure.
The price has found its current low at 1.1125 during the pullback and most likely will dip further for a stronger rebound and resume the bullish trend.
Await for further pullback and look for buy opportunity at the demand zone just below 1.1108.
Gold: Weekly Forecast 30th Dec - 3rd Jan 2020Finally, having talking about the trend which will come after the 3-month consolidation since mid-November, the gold has TRENDed!
Gold climbed and broke above the 3-months falling trendline at the beginning of this Christmas week.
And during Christmas eve, we saw a decisive bullish run which broke further away from the consolidation and it now stands above 1500.
At the same time, we are also seeing a drop in the demand of the dollar which definitely helps boost demand for the gold.
As of current, the price is seen resisted by a 3-month supply zone just above 1515 and it's going to take gold quite a bit of effort to continue north.
In this week, we are expecting a short-term consolidation as we head into a new year with too little economic events to bring about volatility.
It is a good time for traders to identify the low for reentry before the gold continues its bullish trend.
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 30th Dec - 3rd Jan 2020The dollar reconfirmed the break of an 18-month rising channel after a pullback, a retest and a successful rejection from the bottom of the 18-month falling channel.
The dollar has been weakening across all major currencies in the month of November and December this year.
This is largely due to the fact that the Fed could not raise rate any further and is going to ease monetary policy in order to reach their 2% inflation target.
Fed Chairman Powell has clearly stated that the Fed will only consider raising rate again only if they meet their inflation target.
Combined with the current technical structure, the dollar is almost certainly going to fall further.
We are expecting the dollar to reach the 11-month demand zone around 95.95 by the end of January 2020, 95 by the end of 1st quarter 2020.
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 30th Dec - 3rd Jan 2020EURUSD confirmed a reversal just before the end of 2019.
The price had a successful reattempt and finally broke above the 18-month falling channel last Friday.
Besides, all major currencies have gained against the dollar too, confirming that the dollar is in a downward reversal.
Therefore this week, we are changing direction and will be looking to buy EURUSD.
But first, we want to make sure that the price breaks above the current resistance at 1.1175 and then wait for a pullback to buy.
However, if that doesn't happen and the price goes down from here, we will first wait for a low to form and decide which level to buy.
Weekly Chart of Nifty 50 IndexWeekly Chart of Nifty 50 Index
On weekly chart it is seen that the index is forming a Pitchfork pattern and it is trading near to the median of the same. 12250 to 12350 will act as significant resistance. We can see the correction in the index to the levels of 11800 to 11900 in coming weeks. A close above the levels of 12350 will open new targets towards 13000.
For education purpose.
Gold: Weekly Forecast 23rd - 27th Dec 2019The gold was little changed but closed with a second bullish candle in the weekly chart.
The price is currently facing a breakout at the 3-month falling trendline and in fact, it was broken in the H4 chart.
While we stick to the same bullish view on gold, there may be some downward spikes before it goes into a real trend.
As of current, levels for entry are 1474 and 1446.
It may be Christmas and volatility could be low but stay alert somehow for surprise movement from gold.
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 23rd - 27th Dec 2019EURUSD fell first as expected but was failed to discover any strong support for a strong rebound.
As a result, a fake break at the top of the 18-month falling channel was confirmed and EURUSD fell last week.
An ascending triangle was formed in the process and price is just about 40 pips away from the bottom of the pattern.
Since it's Christmas week, volatility is expected to be very low and EURUSD is most likely to range within the pattern too.
Traders can attempt an intraday buy low of the ascending triangle from 1.1053 to 1.1038.
Otherwise, wait for the price to rebound from the current low and look for sell opportunity from 1.1111 to 1.1144.
Gold: Weekly Forecast 16th - 20th Dec 2019A trend is currently due for the gold.
Gold has been consolidating for more than 3 months now and it's clearly coming to an end.
The price did attempt to break out of the consolidation into a trend last week but got rejected again at 1483.
However, the lows are going higher and shall remain bullish as long as the price doesn't break below the 4-month demand zone from 1447 onward.
This could be the exact week that gold embarks onto a trending period.
We will wait to buy the gold at a lower price from 1465 to 1453.
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 16th - 20th Dec 2019EURUSD peaked the bottom of its 18-month falling channel with signs of a breakout for the first time.
While it was a good for the dollar that the Fed decided to hold off further rate cut, it wasn't good actually because the market has changed from a 'no cut' to a 'no hike'.
Therefore, the dollar plunged further and the DXY has broken below its rising channel.
This fake break of the top of the 18-month falling channel might turn real if the dollar continues to fall on a weak sentiment that the Fed will not raise rate in the foreseeable future.
Gold: Weekly Forecast 9th - 13th DecGold is finally coming to the end of a 3-month consolidation similar to the consolidation which started in mid-Feb 2019.
While the price dipped about 200 pips last Friday due to a strong US employment data, it found support at 1459 and hold out till the market closed.
Although the bull strength was disappointing, there's always a chance for gold to rise again as long as it does not break any lower than 1440.
This week, we will still focus on buying between the price of 1457 and 1455.
And since the price has already pulled back significantly, the opportunity should come as soon as within the first 2 trading day.
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 9th - 13th DecEURUSD completed the 2nd pullback slightly higher than the range top.
NFP data was released, showing an actual of 266k as compared to 181k, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6%.
This gave the Fed a very valid reason to pause any further rate cut which will be good for the dollar.
As such, the price has started the 2nd bearish trend during NFP last Friday as it broke through the bottom of a range.
In this week, await pull back and look for sell opportunity between the range of 1.1068 and 1.1089.
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 2nd - 6th DecEURUSD extended fall in the first 3 days last week and found support at the previous low of 1.0990.
The price made a final attempt to break new low but it turned out to be a spike which led to a strong rebound.
EURUSD has turned into a bullish structure at range bottom overnight.
This week, intraday traders can wait to buy the pullback between 1.1013 and 1.1000.
Otherwise, wait for the price to climb and reach between 1.1070 and 1.1095 to sell.