[Daily Bias] Gold - Fri 09062024 - Dropping to the POCYesterday, the price experienced a significant rally and reached the naked Point of Control (POC), where it currently appears to be holding. We anticipate a potential retracement to test a key support zone below before making another move.
The price may decline if the previous POC holds.
Alternatively, the price could rise to test the previous Value Area High (VAH) before potentially dropping again
VSA
[Daily Bias] Gold - Thur 09052024 - Dropping to the POCCurrently, the price is at the Point of Control (POC) from Tuesday's declining session. If Wednesday's Value Area High (VAH) is able to hold, the price may drop further to test the Value Area Low (VAL), potentially leading to a significant decline towards the naked POC below
[Daily Bias] Gold - Wed 09042024 - Ranging inside VAThe price opened within the previous Value Area, so we have two scenarios today (be cautious of the news in New York):
If the VPOC does not reject the price, it may continue to rally and test the VAH.
If the VPOC rejects the price and the VAL cannot hold, the price may drop significantly, potentially leading to a big move following the news.
RADICO - In to the next orbit ?The stock has been moving almost sideways with a upward bias for the last eight months. However, recently you can see that in the weekly it has been making a higher, high and higher lows. Now the stock has successfully moved out of this sideways range and also it has crossed above the supply line in the top. The move was with very high volumes. You can see a positive money flow in the weekly. On the daily you can see that the relative strength, absolute strength and the money flow has been positive. So, it looks like that stock is now ready to go into the next orbit. However, the ultra-high volume calls for some caution. So, one has to wait till the stock crosses above 1973 which is a high of the “BC” like bar of the last day. Relative strength turning positive on the weekly will add to the conviction.
CARBORUNDUM UNIVERSAL - SOME OBSERVATIONSWe can see Volatility contraction, clustering of closes and contraction of spreads. So, we can see some expansion next week. If it is on the downside then it will go below 1500 which will a "Break of Structure" on the weekly. So, if someone is holding, time to book profits. If the expansion is on the upper side the stock will test 1840 levels. The background is weak with the negative Relative strength and Money flow.
UPL - Finally out of the woods?The stock had been in a downtrend for more than 15 months, losing almost 45% in value. In the last three months it was seeing some recovery and finally now it seems to be out of the woods. We can see the stock is making a higher high and higher low on the weekly and we can see a change of character in the weekly as well. Now finally the stock is decisively going above the 200 DMA and also the short-term moving averages. The relative strength and the money flow is also positive. Even the buying pressure and the absolute strength are also positive. It is showing a positive momentum as well. We can now confirm that the stock is finally ready to move up further and eventually the stock should be testing 800 levels.
How I used Volume Spread Analysis to avoid FOMO trading!As a trader, I often battle with the fear of missing out (FOMO), a common pitfall among traders that can lead to impulsive, unprofitable trades. After reviewing my journal, I determined that chasing breakouts was costing me a significant portion of my account, so I studied Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) to help me reduce my urges. Here is how is used VSA to avoid FOMOing a trade.
Before we get started, let's clarify two definitions:
Volume: Measures the number of times buyers and sellers exchange 1 unit of an asset at an agreed-upon price. It doesn't inherently indicate whether a trend is bullish or bearish, but rather that a trade has occurred. Low volume suggests that few transactions have taken place because buyers and sellers couldn't agree on price. High volume suggests that buyers OR sellers felt they were getting a bargain at the current price, leading to many transactions.
Spread/Range: The difference between the high and low of a candlestick. A narrow spread indicates little variance between what someone is willing to buy for and what someone is willing to sell for. A wide spread suggests that buyers and sellers have significantly different ideas of what the fair price is.
In short, Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) interprets the relationship between trading volume and candle spread. When volume and spread agree, they are considered harmonious, and the trend will probably continue. If volume and spread disagree, there is a divergence, and the trend may be weak or could even reverse. In general, there are three main harmonious conditions:
Narrowing spread should have narrowing volume.
Average spread should have average volume.
Widening spread should have widening volume.
I spotted a bear flag consolidation on QQQ and decided I would trade the breakout to the downside. I took a break and came back to the chart just after the breakdown had occurred, missing my ideal entry. The candle spread was widening and my first thought was "I have to get in! This thing is free falling!" PAUSE! I reminded myself that I cant make every dollar in the market. If I miss this trade, there will always be another. "Be patient and wait for the market to come back to you."
This is the chart after the initial break. What can we observe? QQQ broke the low of day with high volume and a widening red candle. Based on our definitions from earlier, we know that high volume means that buyers or sellers think they are getting a bargain so they are willing to transact as much as they can at current price. Given that price is falling, we can assume that the volume is due to aggressive selling. We remain patient and continue to watch for something to trade against.
Next, we see a narrower range candle with a long lower shadow and above average volume. By definition, strong volume with a narrow range is a possible divergence. We know that narrow range candles mean that buyers and sellers generally agree on current price, but why would it close near the highs if the selling was so aggressive? Given that there is a long lower shadow and then a bullish candle close, we can infer that sellers were not willing to sell below $467.89. The buyers absorbed the selling at those prices.
Fast forwarding, we notice that the volume and candle size has shrunk back to the average meaning buyers and sellers are in agreeance. The number of people willing to transact is decreasing. We also notice that a small range has formed. Buyers have not stepped in to buy above the previous low of day at $469.35 and the sellers have shown no effort to get back below $467.89. Now we have something to trade against instead of FOMOing in! We will look for a break of this range with increased volume.
On the next candle we see bulls break out of the range with aggressive volume and a wide spread candle. Something of note is that the volume on this bull candle is less that the volume of our initial sell candle. If those sellers were still present, wouldn't they be selling at these higher prices and forcing the candle range to be narrow? This shows us that bulls are now in control and the selling from earlier was just a hoax.
As we can see, the rest is history. If I FOMOed into the short as I had planned, this trade would have resulted in a loss. Being patient allowed me to realize that there was nothing to miss out on and actually allowed me to find a better trade.
Key Notes
Always journal your trades and review them
Never FOMO into a trade. Be patient and wait for the trade to come to you!
You dont need to take every trade to make money in the market. It is okay to miss a trade if it means protecting your account.
Volume spread analysis is not 100%, but it can be useful in determining the strength of a trend.
AAVE. Trading opportunityHello traders and investors!
The token has reached all targets, and the previous analysis is no longer relevant. It's time to create a new one.
Daily Timeframe
On the daily timeframe, the price has formed a sideways range, which started in March. The upper boundary is at 133.94, and the lower boundary is at 70. The current seller's vector is 12-13, with a potential target of 71.06 (70).
On August 21, the price broke above the upper boundary of the range with significant volume. However, the seller pushed the price back into the range and established a seller's zone at the upper boundary of the range on August 27 (red rectangle on the chart). At the same time, the seller tested the buyer's candle from August 19 (which was on increased volume) at the test level of 117.15. Yesterday, the buyer moved up to test the seller's zone, and the seller resumed from the 129 level. This might become the test level if a bearish candle forms today.
Hourly Timeframe
On the hourly timeframe, the price has also formed a range. The upper boundary is at 129, and the lower boundary is at 117.15 (which coincides with the daily test level). The current seller's vector is 6-7, with a potential target of 121.32. In ranges, it's advisable to trade from boundary to boundary if the boundary is defended.
Sell opportunities can be looked for from the seller's defense of the upper boundary at 129.
Buy opportunities can be considered from the buyer's defense at 121.32 and 117.15.
Good luck with your trading and investing!
[Daily Bias] Gold - Thu 08292024 - Sideway & Big move NYPrice opened within the previous value area, suggesting sideways movement within this range during the Asian and London sessions. With news expected at 19:30, anticipate a significant move, likely continuing upwards after a major sweep of the bottom.
STLA 1H Swing Long Aggressive CounterTrend TradeAggressive CounterTrend Trade
- short impulse
+ biggest volume T1
+ biggest volume Sp?
+ weak test closed 2 ticks below support level
+ first bullish bar closed entry
- resistance level
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit
Daily countertrend
"- short impulse
+ volumed TE/T1 level
+ support level"
Monthly trend
"+ long impulse
+ T2 level
+ 1/2 correction
+ support level"
STLA @NYSE
Sell Limit 17.40, GTC
Sell Stop 16.53 LMT 16.84, GTC
NEARUSDT. Buying opportunitiesHello traders and investors!
If you are looking to buy, I suggest considering NEAR. I believe there is a good potential for growth of 20-40%.
Daily Time Frame
On the daily time frame, the price has formed a sideways range that started in March. The upper boundary is at 8.52, and the lower boundary is at 4.279.
The price has touched the lower boundary twice. The second interaction, which occurred on August 5, was marked by impressive volume, which was absorbed by the buyer on August 13, pushing the price back into the range. This candle was pivotal (the largest volume, marked with “KC” on the chart) in the seller’s impulse, which forms vector 4-5 of the range. By absorbing this candle, the buyer established a buying zone (green rectangle on the chart) from which buyer's vector 5-6 started, with a potential target of 6.89.
The buyer faces a significant obstacle beginning at the 50% level of the last seller's impulse, at 5.798. At this same level, a seller’s zone (red rectangle on the chart) has formed, and the level 5.798 is the start of the last sub-impulse of the seller's last impulse.
Interestingly, the last sub-impulse of the buyer started at the 4.000 level (low of the sub-impulse at 4.000, high of the sub-impulse at 6.489), and on August 5, liquidity was taken below the 4.000 level.
4-Hour Time Frame
There is a long trend. The starting level of the buyer's last impulse is at 4.738. A seller's zone formed at the end of this impulse. Currently, the buyer is testing this zone. If the price returns to 4.738 and the buyer defends this level, there may be buying opportunities, as the seller resumed action from the seller’s zone at the end of the impulse (meaning the zone has been tested), and the seller could not defeat the buyer at the beginning level of the last impulse.
Buying Strategy
It makes sense to look for buys from the daily candle of August 23, which showed a surge in volume. The targets are 6.000 and 6.489.
Good luck with your trading and investments!
Looking for buy opportunities in the crypto market!Hello traders and investors!
I’ve selected four assets in the crypto market where buying opportunities can be considered. Each of these four assets has formed a range, with the seller's impulse completed and the buyer's impulse now active.
BNB : Buyer’s 10-11 impulse, potential targets: 598, 645.2
TON : Buyer’s 6-7 impulse, potential targets: 7.35, 7.72, 8.1582
AAVE : Buyer’s 11-12 impulse, potential targets: 120.08, 132.57
ADA : Buyer’s 5-6 impulse, potential targets: 0.3730, 0.4292, 0.4504
Among these, BNB appears the strongest, as two buyer's zones have formed in the 10-11 impulse. These zones were created when the buyer absorbed a seller's candle with increased volume (the buyer's zone is marked by a blue rectangle on the chart).
ADA, on the other hand, looks the weakest among the four, as it has not yet been able to close a daily candle above the high of the August 8th candle, which absorbed the seller's attack on the lower boundary of the range, forming a buyer's zone.
It's advisable to use lower timeframes when looking for buying opportunities. I have selected examples of lower timeframes for you.