Volatility
NVIDIA possible pathMultiple volume profiles drawn at various points to current day:
1. Swing high
2. Swing low
3. Point of recent lift off
4. Large timeframe low
Excluding "4", fair value is 500's
Current point of control is 450's
Note dropping volume into the rise. Not typically a bullish sign.
"4" can be achieved. See published chart of ARKK for similarities...
Reproduced these from user @beanotrader on Twitter / X
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/8/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17854.75
- PR Low: 17835.00
- NZ Spread: 44.25
No significant calendar events
Pushing the ATH
- Maintaining prev session highs
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 225.67
- Volume: 13K
- Open Int: 298K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -0.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/7/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17662.75
- PR Low: 17646.00
- NZ Spread: 37.25
Key economic calendar events
10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories
13:00 | 10-Year Note Auction
Prev session faded into daily inventory
- Trading inside range of prev 3 sessions
- Maintaining high and low liquidity
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 228.54
- Volume: 25K
- Open Int: 285K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -0.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/6/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17711.00
- PR Low: 17693.00
- NZ Spread: 40.0
No key economic calendar events
Prev session closed practically no change
- Still hanging out near ATHs
- Daily print painted for potential break long
- Liquidity pool below 17600
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 230.29
- Volume: 19K
- Open Int: 287K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -0.3% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Demand on OilOil is presenting to us clear (marked with green rectangle) demand zone presented on chart. Yesterday there were multiple strong demand signals there identified real-time by Scanner. This zone becomes still valid, especially as it's placed within today's Balance Zone (between Gamma +0.25 and Gamma -0.25). Following price structure, it is supposed to retest demand zone from top and continue up move. Alternative scenario would expect to observe on chart consolidation in demand zone, as it's marked by market as fair price area.
VIX explosion is coming Feb 2024 !I've used 3 indicators, namely, MACD, RSI & BB width to show the idea of momentum building up in the background. If VIX spikes that's definitely not a good thing for the markets.
Volatility is a mean reverting animal so its just simple statistics that a big spike is coming.
TIMEFRAME: If vix starts to pop this week, the rally could end 3-4 weeks from now.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/5/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17723.50
- PR Low: 17691.50
- NZ Spread: 71.5
Key economic calendar events
09:45 | S&P Global Services PMI
10:00 | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
Back inside ATH range
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 234.39
- Volume: 33K
- Open Int: 287K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -0.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Bollinger Bands Part II: Reversal PatternsBollinger Bands Part II: Reversal Patterns
Analzying Two Key Patterns Called M-Tops and W-Bottoms
This post will go into greater depth than the basic introduction to Bollinger Bands published last week. In particular, it will discuss two key reversal patterns. Both the M-top reversal pattern and W-bottom reversal pattern are price patterns that form in conjunction with the Bollinger Bands.
M-Top Pattern
The classic M-top reversal pattern forms when two consecutive price highs form an M-shaped price pattern with the first high tagging the upper band and the second high exhausting before tagging the upper band. An example is shown on Supplemental Chart A involving a topping pattern in BTCUSD from early 2021. This weekly chart shows the M-top in red. The second high meets the traditional (strict) criteria of a second peak near—but not touching—the upper band. This is soon evident as a price failure.
Supplemental Chart A
But an M-top reversal pattern may arise even when two actual tags or pierces of the upper band occur, i.e., the second high may tag the band without invalidating the pattern. This is based on the email discussion this author had with the creator of the Bollinger Bands a while back in 2022, recounted at the end of this post.
In short, the most important feature of the pattern is price exhaustion and reversal at the second high . In other words, look for failure of the price move at or near band resistance (e.g., a failed breakout). The following technical signals may provide additional confirmation: weakening momentum indicators, including negative divergences in momentum indicators or a lower high on %B indicator which may present as a %B line divergence.
W-Bottom Pattern
The classic W-bottom reversal pattern forms when two consecutive price lows form a W-shaped price pattern with the first low tagging the lower band and the second low exhausting before tagging the lower band.
Supplemental Chart B
But note that a W-bottom reversal pattern may arise even when two actual tags or pierces of the lower band occur, i.e., the second low may tag the band without invalidating the pattern. This is based on the email discussion this author had with the creator of the Bollinger Bands a while back in 2022, recounted at the end of this post. In short, the most important feature of the pattern is price exhaustion and reversal at the second low. In other words, look for failure of the price move at band support (e.g., a failed breakdown). The following technical signals may provide additional confirmation: Strengthening momentum indicators, including positive divergences in momentum indicators or a higher low on % B indicator which may present as a %B line divergence.
Understanding the Nuances
In June 2022, John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger Bands, posted a monthly chart of BTC/USD on Twitter. He described the chart as a “picture perfect double (M-type) top in BTCUSD on the monthly chart complete with confirmation” from %B and bandwidth indicators. He noted also that the signal led to a tag of the lower band. Supplemental Chart C is my own attempt to recreate the monthly chart Bollinger had shown to reflect the same two major monthly highs in BTCUSD in early 2021 and then again in late 2021. Please note that Supplemental Chart C shows a different M-top than the one shown on the weekly time frame above on Supplemental Chart A, which only focuses on one of the two peaks analyzed in this monthly chart.
Supplemental Chart C
This chart that Bollinger originally posted in 2022 showed two actual tags of the upper band. This was not quite technically within the definition of an M-top in much of the technical literature. My previous reading on M-tops and W-bottoms found that all the definitions and examples showed that the second high or low must not touch or tag the relevant band. But this is incorrect to assume that M-tops and W-bottoms are invalid when this technical definition has not been strictly met, i.e., when two (or more) tags of the bands occurred at both price extremes.
Responding to Bollinger’s chart of a “perfect M-top pattern,” I messaged John Bollinger, the creator of the bands, directly, hoping for clarification about the strict definition of M-tops and W-bottoms. My question was whether they can be valid while having two actual tags of the bands at both price extremes—two tags at both highs of an M-top and two tags at both lows of a W-bottom. Or were the technical books correct to say that the second peak or low must approach the bands but fail to touch them.
In response to my questions, Bollinger clarified that whether a tag occurs at the second peak / high of an M-top is not important as price failure at upper band resistance. This reasoning can be applied in the inverse to W-bottoms as well. In other words, completing the second half of each formation requires a price failure, rather than a band-tag failure, upper band resistance (M-top) or lower band support (W-bottom).
So this broadens the scope of what constitutes a valid M-top or W-bottom pattern. But it does not exclude patterns that meet the conventional technical definition. This means that valid M-top and W-bottom patterns include cases where the secondary high / low fails to tag the upper / lower band. Stated differently, failures to tag the bands at a secondary price high / low can also form valid topping and bottoming patterns.
Finally, beware of seeking reversals too soon when price is trending strongly, or walking the bands —pullbacks in that specific scenario are not at all "price failures," and it's important to recognize the difference.
Conclusion
In short, the key is to apply substance over form, to follow the core concept rather than strictly adhering to the technical rules / definitions. Broaden the scope of the technical requirements to include price failures—on the secondary test—at band resistance or support. This will help traders recognize the patterns arising from this technical indicator more effectively.
Further, Bollinger himself recommended using other indicators for confirmation, such as RSI or another indicator that isn't overlapping in its operation too much. Lastly, it may be important to realize that the final failure at or near the bands may not be the second peak or low but the fourth, fifth or sixth. Just draw the M at the end where it fits if there has been strength followed by a failure at or near the bands. And remember trading time frame (M-tops and W-bottoms that are valid have much less significance on shorter time frames and much more and lasting significance on longer time frames. And keep risk management on as always.
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/2/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17608.00
- PR Low: 17579.50
- NZ Spread: 63.5
08:30 | Average Hourly Earnings
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- Unemployment Rate
Value return back to prev week range
- Maintaining prev session highs
- Gapped down between sessions
- Gapped filled ahead of Asian hours
Evening Stats (As of 1:35 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 229.14
- Volume: 33K
- Open Int: 285K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -1.0% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Bollinger Bands—Part 1: The BasicsIntroduction
Imagine that you are placed on an island with only a trading platform (TradingView of course) and the island gods only permitted three indicators. What three indicators would you carefully select? At the top of my list would be the Bollinger Bands.
Some people seek out complex or cryptic indicators in search for a better edge. Of course, some indicators and modes of anlaysis can be very useful despite being complex. But some indicators like the Bollinger Bands, can be valuable because of their simplicity, and they can also have a wealth of analytical value that is more complicated than would appear at a glance.
In 1983, John Bollinger invented the eponymous Bollinger Bands. This valuable indicator operates centrally on the concept of standard deviation. In other words, standard deviation is a basic statistical concept behind the indicator, i.e., this concept is basic for mathematics professors and experts, but perhaps intermediate to advanced level for others.
Standard Deviation
One can easily find the common standard-deviation formula on the internet from many reputable sources. But one doesn't have to master the formula to use the concept of standard deviation—standard deviation essentially measures the variation in the data points around a mean (or average). Khan Academy offers a very useful and insightful guide to those who want to learn the core concepts of standard deviation. Supplemental Chart A contains Khan Academy's standard-deviation illustration and its well-worded explanation, although no one alive today can take credit for discovering and establishing this formula.
Supplemental Chart A (Credit to Khan Academy's website for illustration with explanation of standard deviation)
Here is a short, somewhat summary explanation of standard deviation's formula (though it doesn't apply to standard deviation of samples, a slightly different formula).
Calculate the mean of a data set (e.g., a price series).
Calculate each data point's distance, or variance, from that mean.
The distance between each data point and the mean is then squared.
Sum all the squared distances between each data point and the mean.
Divide the sum of the squared distances by the total number of data points, or values in the data set.
Take the square root of the quotient from the previous step, which is the average of all data points' squared distances from the mean.
Moving Calculations
Having identified the statistical concept at the heart of the bands' operation, it helps to remember that the moving average at the center of the bands, sometimes called the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, mean that the entire indicator should be considered a "moving indicator." In other words, even the standard-deviation bands, plotted a given number of standard deviations above or below the moving average, are moving based on the price data that evolves as time passes. Just like the moving average at the center of the bands continues to calculate the mean based on a moving lookback window of 20 periods or some other fixed number of periods, the standard deviations above and below the mean also derive from a moving lookback window.
Analysis / Interpretation
Bollinger Bands, as John Bollinger described in the journal Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, "answer the question whether prices are high or low on a relative basis." He further explained that the "bands do not give absolute buy and sell signals simply by having been touched; rather, they provide a framework within which price may be related to indicators." He essentially recommended comparing price in relation to the bands and then using the action at the edges of the bands and using such signals in combination with another well-selected indicator (e.g., one might consider RSI).
As created by Bollinger, the bands are typically set at +2 and –2 standard deviations above the mean. This can be adjusted on TradingView's platform. A well known trader, Anthony Crudele, uses the Bollinger Bands set at +3 and –3 standard deviations from the mean. He also uses the bands extensively as part of his system, and he does so with some unique and interesting features that he added. This author recommends following his videos regardless of whether his strategy is ultimately followed or adopted or whether some other strategy is adopted as most suitable for a particular asset or time frame.
The bands not only measure whether price is high or low on a relative basis. But importantly, they reveal realized-volatility conditions in the market. If price volatility (or variation from the mean without regard to direction) is expanding in a trend-like move on the specific time frame being examined, whether hourly, daily, weekly, monthly or longer, then the Bollinger Bands reveal this by opening and widening, much like jaws. The jaws of the bands contract when volatility is contracting. Volatility—implied and realized—tends toward cycles and mean reversion. So the bands helpfully show traders where volatility is within its cycle. Some traders, for example, use the bands to trade squeezes, and when the bands contract for a substantial period of consolidation and narrow significantly. The squeeze helps increase the probability of a volatility expansion, a potential a widening of the bands as price moves either in the direction of the prior trend or a reversal. As with other indicators, the significance of the signal should be interpreted in the context of the time frame being analyzed.
Supplemental Chart B
In Supplemental Chart B, notice how the Bollinger Bands contracted as price consolidated in the latter part of last year on the weekly chart of SPY. The Bollinger Bands have been expanding as price has pushed higher to new highs at the degree of trend shown, i.e., the uptrend from 2022 lows to present.
Conclusion
The Bollinger Bands provide more analytical tools and features than the ones described today. If readers are interested in a more in-depth post on Bollinger Bands (perhaps a Part 2 as contemplated by the title), please indicate this in the comments! Look forward to hearing from you.
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/1/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17291.75
- PR Low: 17267.00
- NZ Spread: 55.25
Key economic calendar events
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
09:45 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
10:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI
- ISM Manufacturing Prices
Discount margin reqs raised for news
Inventory response ahead of 17200 prev supply
- Trading just below prev session half-back
Evening Stats (As of 12:25 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 1/31 -0.31% (filled)
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 219.60
- Volume: 30K
- Open Int: 288K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -2.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Bearish Sell Stop OrderMy trading plan does not allow me to buy into new highs.
However it's not safe or practical to aimlessly short the high.
A sell stop order is how I safely trade the highs.
I am Bearish to Neutral for now. Waiting for significant signs of bullish support.
Seasonally, the market is Bearish/ corrects on average going into February.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/31/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17462.00
- PR Low: 17409.00
- NZ Spread: 118.5
Key economic calendar events
08:15 | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
09:45 | Chicago PMI
10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories
14:00 | FOMC Statement
- Fed Interest Rate Decision
- FOMC Press Conference
Substantial session gap down, unfilled
- Ranging below the lows of prev 5 sessions
- Resting on Jan 22-23 inventory
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 1/31 -0.31% (open > 14470)
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 217.36
- Volume: 29K
- Open Int: 294K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -1.9% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
ADA.X in +8.01% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on JMoving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where ADA.X advanced for three days, in 269 of 441 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
BINANCE:ADAUSDT
Price Prediction Chart
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 42 of 76 cases where ADA.X's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on January 29, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ADA.X as a result. In 67 of 124 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADA.X just turned positive on January 29, 2024. Looking at past instances where ADA.X's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 59 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
ADA.X may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
ADA.X moved below its 50-day moving average on January 14, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ADA.X crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on January 14, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADA.X declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Aroon Indicator for ADA.X entered a downward trend on January 29, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
ETH.X's RSI Indicator peaks and leaves overbought zoneThe 10-day RSI Oscillator for ETH.X moved out of overbought territory on January 12, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 68 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 38 of the 68 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 56%.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on January 20, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ETH.X as a result. In 46 of 117 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 39%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ETH.X turned negative on January 20, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 64 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 23 of the 64 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 36%.
ETH.X moved below its 50-day moving average on January 22, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ETH.X crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on January 28, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 22 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ETH.X declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 39%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 39 of 78 cases where ETH.X's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +2.26% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ETH.X advanced for three days, in 266 of 444 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
ETH.X may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Compare trend and price GOOG vs GOOGLTo understand the difference between Alphabet Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class C (GOOG) vs. Alphabet Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class A (GOOGL) it is enough to know the definitions of Ordinary Shares - Class C and Ordinary Shares - Class A
Ordinary Shares - Class C - Ordinary shares Class C usually refers to ordinary shares with no-voting rights (except for the cases described in the company's reports) . Investors of Class C shares are not entitled to offer a proposal to make a merger, takeover, or other change of control proposal, or to engage in a proxy contest for the election of directors. The issuance of shares Class C won't result in voting dilution to the holders of shares Class A and B. The holders of Class C stock will be entitled to share equally with the holders of Class A Stock and Class B Stock any dividends that the company may authorize.
Ordinary Shares - Class A - Class A shares usually refer to common stocks with more voting rights than Class B shares. They often imply enhanced benefits such as dividend priority and liquidation preferences to the holder. Traditionally, this type of share helps a company's management to keep control over the company.
Stock price -- (GOOG: $154.84 vs. GOOGL: $153.57)
Brand notoriety: GOOG and GOOGL are both notable
Both companies represent the Internet Software/Services industry
Current volume relative to the 65-day Moving Average: GOOG: 99% vs. GOOGL: 88%
Market capitalization -- GOOG: $1.73T vs. GOOGL: $1.73T
GOOG is valued at $1.73T. GOOGL’s market capitalization is $1.73T. The market cap for tickers in the industry ranges from $1.73T to $0. The average market capitalization across the industry is $52.46B.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GOOG’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileGOOGL’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
GOOG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
GOOGL’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
According to our system of comparison, both GOOG and GOOGL are a good buy in the long-term.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GOOG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GOOGL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
GOOG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
GOOGL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
According to our system of comparison, GOOGL is a better buy in the short-term than GOOG.
This week, GOOG (@Internet Software/Services) price moved +4.83%, while GOOGL (@Internet Software/Services) price moved +5.19% over the same period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Internet Software/Services industry was +2.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.31%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3777.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
GOOG is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2024.
PYTH:GOOG
GOOGL is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2024.
UNISWAP:MGOOGLUST_4B70CC
@Internet Software/Services (+2.10% weekly)
Companies in this industry typically license software on a subscription basis and it is centrally hosted. Such products usually go by the names web-based software, on-demand software and hosted software. Cloud computing has emerged as a major force in this space, making it possible to save files to a remote database (without requiring them to be saved on local storage device); as long as a device has access to the web, it can access the data and the software programs to run it. This has in many cases facilitated cost efficiency, speed and security of data for businesses and consumers. Alphabet Inc., Facebook, Inc. and Yahoo! Inc. are some well-known names in the internet software/services industry.
Momentum Indicator for GOOG turns positive, indicating new upward trend
GOOG saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on January 10, 2024. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 94 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 65 of the 94 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 69%.
Price Prediction Chart
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GOOG just turned positive on January 10, 2024. Looking at past instances where GOOG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Following a +0.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GOOG advanced for three days, in 235 of 357 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 200 of 326 cases where GOOG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GOOG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
GOOG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on January 25, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
Fear & Greed
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. GOOG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.349) is normal, around the industry mean (17.206). P/E Ratio (26.525) is within average values for comparable stocks, (45.758). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.305) is also within normal values, averaging (3.673). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.974) is also within normal values, averaging (9.088).
Momentum Indicator for GOOGL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
GOOGL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on January 10, 2024. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 92 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 65 of the 92 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 71%.
Price Prediction Chart
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GOOGL just turned positive on January 10, 2024. Looking at past instances where GOOGL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +1.12% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GOOGL advanced for three days, in 229 of 357 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 211 of 329 cases where GOOGL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GOOGL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
GOOGL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on January 25, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
Fear & Greed
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. GOOGL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 44 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.285) is normal, around the industry mean (17.206). P/E Ratio (26.316) is within average values for comparable stocks, (45.758). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.292) is also within normal values, averaging (3.673). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.910) is also within normal values, averaging (9.088).
TSLA in -12.68% downward trend, declining for three consecutive Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where TSLA declined for three days, in 206 of 266 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
PYTH:TSLA
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on December 29, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TSLA as a result. In 55 of 72 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TSLA turned negative on December 29, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 74%.
TSLA moved below its 50-day moving average on January 09, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TSLA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on January 12, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator for TSLA entered a downward trend on January 29, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 10 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 18 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +4.57% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSLA advanced for three days, in 292 of 349 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
TSLA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/30/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17731.50
- PR Low: 17700.00
- NZ Spread: 70.5
Pushing back toward ATH 17794
- Strong supply run prev session
Key economic calendar events
10:00 | CB Consumer Confidence
- JOLTs Job Openings
Evening Stats (As of 12:15 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 212.83
- Volume: 25K
- Open Int: 299K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -0.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/29/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17507.50
- PR Low: 17456.25
- NZ Spread: 114.75
Evening Stats (As of 12:15 AM)
No significant calendar events
Slight dip for inventory to start week
- Holding Friday's range
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 1/26 -0.05% (open > 17579)
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 214.35
- Volume: 33K
- Open Int: 299K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -1.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 17700
- Mid: 16391
- Short: 15819
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone