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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

VIX is in the MIX, 27th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Price pushed higher once more but was unable to hold most of the gains. More often than not, this bearish looking daily reversal candle is not bearish at all. Buyers tend to bid it back higher. ➤ Price is approaching the next line of resistance. If successful in overcoming that hurdle, the next hurdle is some distance away at 417 on the SPY. That is 9% higher from here. ➤ The VIX (equity fear index) is contracting quickly well below my panic level of 30. If it keeps falling, it will soon hit the zone where things get interesting. This is the area where in previous months equity prices have reversed downwards and VIX rebounded higher. More often than not, the subsequent expansion in VIX has ended with equity prices setting a new low. ➤ I remain with 40% long exposure in US indices, looking for further upside in the short-term. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Keep an eye on the VIX.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Double Bottom? 26th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Price pushed strongly higher through resistance. After-hours trading is showing weakness due to earnings releases from Google & MSFT. ➤ With today's action, it is probably right to say the market structure has formed a double bottom formation (one could argue a small double bottom also occured with left/right bottom on 30 Sep/13 Oct). The larger structure has a left bottom on 17th Jun low and right bottom on 13th Oct low. If true, the first price target for the larger structure is the high at the peak on 16th Aug, price of 431 on the SPY. We are 12% away below that level. ➤ Most US/Europe indices have overcome short-term resistance levels. ➤ I added 40% long exposure in US indices, looking for further upside in the short-term. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Double-bottom formations are generally pretty reliable. Let's see how this plays out with the positive expectancy of US mid-term elections and the seasonal Christmas-rally.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Resistance is Futile, 25th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I'm not a nerdy Star Trek fan but it seems the phrase about resistance is appropriate here. For the S&P500, price is challenging the upper ceiling of the range that has unfolded from the start of October. ➤ A higher high has developed due to the temporary intrusion above the resistance level. This is a basic requirement to confirm a longer term trend change. A major higher low is now required. ➤ The bluechip DJIA (DOW30) is leading the charge higher. This is a bit suspect given that you would expect the riskier indices such as the NASDAQ to lead in a bullish environment. This may be a temporary lag but we need to keep an eye on it. ➤ I now hold zero exposure having exited my S&P500 position at resistance. I don't like to play when prices stop at support or resistance levels. More often than not, prices reverse course rather than break through. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I'm looking for a bottoming VIX. If this occurs, I will jump in to short the market. If prices keep elevating I will miss out but I won't be kicking myself for it. Is Resistance really futile?
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Oct 24th-28th.Big Tech Earnings Week.I hope everyone had a nice weekend. Stepped away from the markets on Friday as I went to Ensenada Mexico to celebrate my grandfathers 90th birthday. Dude is still going strong and showing no signs of stopping! Always important to spend time with your family, be present in the moment and not always think about the markets. Now, let's get into it. Interesting week last week as we finished Friday with a big green day. Which took many by surprise, especially after Thursday's candle, signaling a more bearish week. But if you sit back and take a look at the bigger picture, we've been in this zone for a few weeks now playing this tug of war game between the June lows and 3800. So, this is still a corrective phase that we're in and I don't think this is THE bottom. Remember that in Bear Rally's, sharp rebounds are to be expected. We're at the 20 EMA still and could continue to go touch the 50 EMA which would put us at 3800ish, 3850ish and still be considered a Bear Rally. With higher pivot lows forming, interest rates still rising with the 2 YR @ 4.6% and an inverted yield curve and a Fed with now intentions on pivoting. You gotta ask yourself: "Do we continue higher with all these head winds?". Many of these "earnings beat" headlines were already on reduced guidance. Corrections can happen two ways. With time, and with Price. Since about September 23rd, we've been correcting with TIME. And now looking for a corrective phase in PRICE with the move we saw on October 23rd and Friday's move. Now if we take a look at the VIX, you would think with all this volatility, it would be more aggressive but the VIX is a forward looking. It implies what is to be expected. And expectations came down last week but not significantly. Here's something to consider. Refresh and then Reinitiate. Sometimes when the market gets confusing, it's best to sit back and be patient for the right entry. Cash IS a position. Nothing wrong with waiting for a clearer picture. Look what happened back in May and June. There was hope in the market as it jumped up between the 20 EMA and 50 EMA before it continued lower. So, similar thing could be playing out here again. Let the hope phase fizzle out and reinitiate your execution. This week we have AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT announcing earnings and these guys are heavily weighted in the S&P, so important to pay attention to market activity. I am still bearish but not as bearish until I see what happens this week. Mange risk accordingly, position size, stay disciplined and patient. Happy Trading everyone!
SP:SPXShort
by MMOTA_
Whipsaw, 24th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ If the chart is looking congested, that's because it is. This is due to the whipsawing, range bound, choppy conditions. I think I've ran out of other descriptions...coiling maybe. I'm pretty sure market-makers are having a good time of it and perhaps day traders too...although the intra-day volatility and news flow, it may be hard to handle. ➤ With such conditions, it is probably wise to reduce risk and sit on your hands rather than being tempted to do something rash. That's exactly what I've been doing. There's been numerous times where a potential sustained bearish move looked to be on the cards but reversed course to snuff out that opportunity. An eager beaver would be licking multiple wounds from any pre-emptive strikes. ➤ That being said, price structures on all major equity indices in the US and Europe that I trade are almost back in sync. This simply means, once a trade opportunity arises, I will most likely be able to add risk simultaneously in multiple indices, hence, build a moderate to high conviction position at the portfolio level. Above average profits or losses should be expected. ➤ I remain long with +20% exposure for now. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Coiling price action, poised to strike.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
ES first target got hit!Posted this first target during the trading hours, we hit first target - 3650-60ES Now if looking at EWT theory, we got 5 down, now need 3 up into 3705-25ES target and then we start a strong move down, My first main target for the whole move down for this year is at low 3400, 3389SPX is where unfilled gap is. Then second and it was ideal target for the low of the year is at 3212SPX, will be very close if we see 3400 soon. - I do believe we hit 3212SPX at min this year Since my few weeks ago update, I have lowered my ideal target to 28 handle, 2855SPX to be specific! Now, if it really wants to extend, then my extended target is in 24 handle, 2410SPX if specific. But this update is not a long term update, so watching the numbers for tomorrow. There are some targets Im watching - 3685-3700SPX or my ES target for the wave 2 bounce at 3705-25ES. If we get above today's highs, then 3800SPX will be still in play, lower odds imo. Here is VIX chart, looking for 29 to hold. Interesting how its going down together with the market. The world is upside down now, nothing makes sense:) Please press that rocket button below, push this chart up for others to see. Also feel free to share my charts with anyone, lets get 1k followers, means my work is important for others to see.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
26
Losing the Forest for the Trees <SPY 330 - EOY to Q1-Q2? 2023 Many traders and wanna be analysts on here seem to be losing the forest for the trees. They're looking at short day or two pops, or even week long dead-cat-bounce/bear-market-rallies and thinking the bottom is in. Be not swayed by CopiumNBC or hopium perma-bulls that have never experienced a bear market. More traders than ever are active and involved in the market, and have been since 2012. They didn't endure 2008-2012, and they don't know how cold winter can get. Don't think that Joey B is impartial in denying we're in a recession either - he has party hopefuls going to the polls in a couple of weeks. Granted, rallies are natural on the way down; that doesn't mean they're sustained. Jerome wasn't citing Volcker last month for no reason. Core PCE came in at another 40 year high. Jobless claims keep batting under estimates. When Bostic isn't insider trading bonds during a prohibited lockup period, and Bullard isn't giving confidential off record talks to Citi executives in contravention of their rules, most of the fed sounds bearish. We've sold off ~26% from ATH on SPY but a real recession could see a >50% decline. That would equate to a range somewhere between 300 and 330; likely with a bounce/pivot at 316~. Elsewhere arguments have shown the Fed has *n e v e r* pivoted before VIX hit 40+. If the fed pivots sooner, of course we'll get more bullish (even if inflation after debasing our currency by a fifth of total supply in 2020 and 2021 has reduced real purchasing power significantly, all while redistributing wealth disproportionately to the richest with more of their wealth in the market than anywhere else). If you use JPOW's printing as a reason to discount the post-March 2020 COVID high as unrealistic funny money, 50% of our January-February 2020 high is an even scarier target - less than half our current valuation, around 161~ or our 2014 range. I highly doubt it gets that ugly, but the global economic climate is not bullish no matter what some snakeoil salesmen may be offering you. Where are your price targets? What are your expectations? Do you believe the FUD around a midterm rally followed by more selling? I believed it enough that I rolled out my 11/4 and 11/18 SPY puts to January and March strikes, and left profits on the table in the process. Do you think WMT or AMZN or CBP will endure better than growth stocks? They should, but how much better? My 401k is almost exclusively SQQQ (yay!) and bonds (RIP). Apologies for the chart trees / lumbermill - I play horizontal lines primarily as support / resistance, and I trade daily in addition to swings. It clouds your yearly view, but I also consult /ES and SPX as needed to avoid my own biases as exhibited in drawings. I appreciate your thoughts, even if you think SPY 500 EOY, I'll be glad to hear the punchline. Good luck, vaya con dios.
AMEX:SPYShort
by anothernic
Range or Trend? 21st October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Without wanting to sound like a broken record, prices are still treading carefully around the important support/resistance level. ➤ That being said, the Bearish picture is progressively getting clearer. Not enough yet to pull any triggers but very close. Here's why and why not: ➤ S&P500 price once again rejected the opportunity to stay above our key level at 371. Finishing near the daily low and printing a bearish looking candlestick. ➤ We can count the recent peak on 18th Oct as another lower high. The classic definition of a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows remains intact. ➤ VIX continues to contract. Now below 30, out of the panic zone. Contractions usually lead to higher equity prices. Not so in the last few days. This needs a resolution to clear up the overall bearish picture. I am watching this as a determining factor. ➤ I remain long with +20% exposure but will change drastically soon. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Prices are trending down but also staying within a range. Most signs show bearish continuation. Easy to get whipsawed here.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Trapped, 20th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Prices continue to dance around the key support/resistance levels. This time falling under my key level. ➤ It's not the only index doing this dance. STOXX50 is sitting right under the short-term resistance at 3484. On the other hand, DAX is hovering above the 12670 support. This also holds true for DJIA and NASDAQ, the former below and the latter above their respective key levels. This is not sustainable. They will need to decide on which side of the fence they belong. ➤ I'm now leaning towards the Bear case. I'm not acting on it right now as my short-term Index Trading Strategy hasn't sent a Short signal. However, my medium-term equity signal is threatening to flash RED and I've entered a Short trade for my long/short individual stock trading strategy. Timing is never perfect on these but the overall bias is there. ➤ I remain long with +20% exposure but will change drastically soon. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: The dance continues in these choppy and volatile conditions. Be agile and don't get trapped sitting on the wrong side of the fence.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro