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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

Pivotal week (or 2) ahead for the S&P The S&P500 / ES is sitting right at a critical point which I believe will break this week or next The weekly chart shows that the S&P is now above most key moving averages, including the 200 moving average (displayed in black), the 20 moving average (displayed in white) and the 50 moving average (displayed in yellow). Also it has broken above the upper resistance trend line (displayed in red), these are all obviously very bullish but a few major headwinds remain that may upset this upwards momentum. Price last week touched the 100 moving average (displayed in blue) but then rejected back down to end up finishing right at the Fib Extension 0.236 level. Ironically the 100 moving average has been a menacing level that has been difficult for the S&P to break through, 7 weeks ago and 21 weeks ago exactly the same touch and rejection of the 100ma occurred. Further to this we are about to enter one of the most bearish seasonal periods of the year for the S&P, I've included a seasonality indicator in my chart which shows 3 year, 6 year and 9 year tendencies and they all have exactly the same downwards pattern starting in February. The indicator below the Seasonality scan is RVI (relative volatility index), this is good for measuring both the volatility along with direction. Inline with what the market has been doing the past few years the RVI had been generally trending up and created a support line that was largely unbroken from end 2018 - Jan 2022, and since been broken the RVI is now showing a downwards trend and instead of a support line there is a resistance level over head that price is close to approaching. The last indicator on the chart includes Larry Williams Vix_Fix which had turned red recently (2 bars/weeks), signalling we are in historically low volatility period in the VIX, most traders know that large moves often follow periods of very low and/or contracting volatility. This last indicator also includes a display for the bond yield curve and this is currently shown in the maroon/deep red which confirms a fairly long period inverted curve which is also known as a precursor sign of recession and market sell off. The recent closed weekly candle was an indecision candle so this week that is coming or perhaps the one that follows should tell a lot about where the market will be heading over the course of the next few months A bullish bias would mean Price this coming week will disregard the seasonal bearish tendency and instead break above both the 100ma and the 0.236 Fib and close the week above these levels. A bearish bias would mean Price has closed back below the resistance level on the chart (both price resistance & RVI resistance) and price has tracked the normal declining seasonal pattern that plays out around this time of the year. I see more chart evidence of a coming decline than an incline but in any case we still need to wait for direction confirmation which should look like one of the above scenarios. So it is time to pay very close attention to the charts and In the week that follows the market direction confirmation signal I suspect we will see some large and fast moves of either sideline money coming into the market to cause one last blow off top before some kind of recession sell off later in the year or heavy selling as these key levels get rejected and the seasonal sell of takes hold.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by gary_trades
Gme looking good Some people have been worried about NYSE:GME and if the cycles were dead. Good news gme looks to still be on the cycle. Bad news Nov opex was in November. Shocked Pickachu face. After falling from the August run up gme stayed flat (1) while other meme stocks like NYSE:AMC and NASDAQ:TSLA fell (2). Because gme didn't get shorted it had a weak barely noticeable Nov Opex. however, as you can see other meme stocks did have a Nov opex (and you can even see gme did too albeit a small one). No shorting no opex. This may be disappointing for people still waiting for it. Good news however is after Nov opex all the meme stocks got shorted (3) and we seem to in the middle of bouncing from that (4). In short gme was dead sept 7th -dec 7th but now appears to be back on track. Gamestop correlates strongly with inverse VIX. Correlation broke on Oct 31st 2022 for some reason and restored Jan 6th 2023.I believe we may be playing out the Vix movement from Oct 31st onwards delayed. VIX has gone down since then so we should go up.Vix has kept its trend and should go lower today and Gme should pop today. I believe we may be playing out delayed price action from when correlation broke (labeled with a 4) Would like to see a 10% up day and to break 24 today. Other meme stocks have rebounded to the price level they were at before they got shorted down. I expect gme to eventually get back to $25-$27. Depending on optiion interest that could cause a large run up past that. Also, ftd's have started on gme again stocksera.pythonanywhere.com and are due in febuary further helping gme. all in all, it's been a rough several months, but everything is looking really good for a run on gme soon.
NYSE:GMELong
by J2DP
3
VIX vs BTC - Inverse Correlation for price prediction $BTC vs $VIX and $SPX vs $VIX the inverse correlation of VIX to SPX is no secret, and applying VIX onto a BTC chart shows how much BTC is more and more correlated to the SnP, this is a good tool to have in any traders arsenal. The beauty of VIX is that it is based on expiring index options, which makes it relatively accurate in estimating volatility. I think SPX and BTC correlation will increase especially this year as the markets will become more and more liquidity strapped. For extra info a- The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index representing the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. b- Investors use the VIX to measure the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making investment decisions. c- Traders can also trade the VIX using a variety of options and exchange-traded products, or they can use VIX values to price derivatives. d- The VIX generally rises when stocks fall, and declines when stocks rise. Source: www.investopedia.com
by theChartGuru
Breaking Loose, 3rd Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ ...almost but not yet. There are still some short-term resistance levels to surpass. However, the momentum is there. *After-hours sell-off as I write due to earning reports from Apple, Google etc. ➤ The Dow30 Bluechip stocks are really being left behind in this latter part of the rally. Or we could say the NASDAQ is just catching up on lost time. There is some sector rotation here and the rally is not all that uniform despite many commenting on the "strong" breadth i.e. wide participation of stocks in the rally. ➤ I'm expecting at least a pause in proceedings to work off the extreme overbought conditioins. I currently hold no position. ➤ Conclusion: This may be nearing the end of the short squeeze.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Everyone Believes What They Want to BelieveRealty != Belief The secret to this market is to lower your expectation continually. Bulls do not realize they are sitting in the largest bull trap ever setup. Macro bottom still pending... it's more of the same: drop, consolidate, drop. A wise Bera once said: Resistance is infinite and unbounded. When a level is broken, there will always be more resistance higher up. Support is not though, support is capped at 0. The Fed's view: www.federalreserve.gov What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing? "It would be unprecedented for job vacancies (openings) to decline by a large amount without the economy falling into recession. We are, in effect, saying that something unprecedented can occur." Lagging Crash Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008. The broader stock market did not begin its crash until a week later. Everyone initially thought Lehman wasn't a systemic risk. You say crypto crash can not crash stocks with a LAG? The doom loop is accelerating. Few understand this.
AMEX:VEUShort
by shri30389
3
The Resistance, 2nd Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ February started off with a bang as equity participants responded favourably to the US interest rate decision. Notable was the strong performance of the NASDAQ and the flat performance in the Bluechip Dow 30. ➤ Price in the S&P500 equity index has reached key resistance levels. It will be interesting to see how prices react. So far in after-hours trading prices have kept moving higher but this is generally unreliable. ➤ At these levels, the price is heavily overextended to the upside. Therefore I am not joining in the fun. The price can keep rising and defy gravity but usually this happens after setting all time highs. We are not in that situation. The higher probability is for some sort of retracement or sideways movement to ease out of the overbought zone. ➤ Conclusion: Waiting for better opportunities.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
YOU need to see this now - THE DANGER LINEThis is a wave trend indicator on the S&P 500 index that is based on relative strength with straightforward oversold or overbought conditions. Relative strength is a measure of momentum where both speed (time) and magnitude (change) is measured and plotted with simple or weighted moving averages. What you are seeing above is a snapshot of a RSI/wave trend of the S&P 500 index based on monthly candles. Understand that it takes the measure of a month of time just to get a single plot of data and this particular snapshot represents over two decades. But right before your eyes are very clear trends. The data is just pure and simple math and math does not lie. Ignore the news. Follow price, volume, momentum.. just follow the data. I will try not to state my opinion too much.. and just follow the data. What I see on the chart is concerning. If this decline continues over the next month or two, momentum is going to accelerate and volatility go up while the market basically crashes... i.e. if the DANGER LINE is breached. I found it odd that volatility (VIX) has been quite docile considering the amount of downside we've seen in the indices this year. That is concerning. It is entirely possible that the September thru November monthly candles are positive and this trend finds support.. and the danger line is not breached. On the flipside, this decent can continue and really pick up speed and we see a 2000-2003 correction or 2007-2009. Here is an overlay snapshot with those corrections to similar scale. That is what could happen if the current trend continues.. we could see 12-24 months of recession and very steep drops and sharp bearish reversals. Be careful, manage risk, consider hedging certain positions, and know that you DO NOT know what is going to happen.
SP:SPX
by gghsusa
11
I'm a Skeptic, 1st Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities finished strongly to end an outstanding month. The enthusiasm is palpable, however, I'm a skeptic of market conditions for two reasons: i) Many believe we are back in a bull market. I think this is pre-mature. A monthly close above 411.73 will change my mind. The market did not achieve this just yet. The current level of the S&P500 equity index is where it was in May 2022. The market has moved laterally. Furthermore, the move since the October 2022 low looks very laboured. It's not a fast rise, each step up is very small. It's not displaying the kind of strong buying with confidence. ii) In the very short-term, I also don't like the way the price finished today. It may be a minor observation but I don't like to see a bullish bar finish below a recent high (27th Jan 2023). Why stop just short of the high and not exceed it? ➤ I closed my small long position to wait for the next opportunity. ➤ Conclusion: Back on the sideline but not for long.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
The First Move, 31st January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ After Friday's weak close, prices acted even weaker by a sharp fall on Monday. Well...not really a sharp fall...more of a standard-sized fall given the jump in volatility post 2021. In any case, the Bears have made the first move in this important week of economic announcements. What response will the Bulls have on interest rate decision day Tuesday? ➤ Remember, I would consider the Bear market over with a monthly close above 411.73 on the SPY monthly chart. Will it be achieved on the final day of January? ➤ The VIX has moved higher off the lows. It's not very convincing at the moment. Another heavy down day will change that narrative completely. ➤ I have entered a small LONG position given the technical set-up. ➤ Conclusion: Back in the action.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro