short vix futures cboe showing spx long stressi think this regression strategy is showing the price of short cboe vix is crashing back into the channel, and fractal chaos is confirming the health of a downtrend, meaning coming up on the speech with which the uptrend es1! is predicted to stop through to the end of march and causing additional shorts on equities in the underlying index, and further bearish action in the futures meaning higher vix or uvxy and a decline in short vix and svxy. maybe the market has one last pop wed before continuing lower, maybe it breaks the trend and we see chaos flatline with the short vix popping back over the regression, maybe we continue immediately down, ut if im going to hope for bulls is spx im curious to first see short vix pick up over the midline and go for the top of the range, and opposite for the bearish picture either in continuation or rejection from some level.
short short on long spx vol bearish us equities
VIX CBOE Volatility Index
Hang On Tight! 22 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ It was a strong red day across the board with small-cap and tech suffering the most. Interestingly the DOW 30 lost more than the S&P500. That is unusual. Our hanging wo(man) failed to hold on to support on two accounts. Firstly the short-term low at 405 and also the 200-day Moving Average.
➤ Today's losses wiped out all of the February gains as well as 50% of the gains for the year (as measured from the recent peak).
➤ So where will our hanging wo(man) land? Around 390 is a clear first target. If that doesn't hold, next level is 380.
➤ I continue to hold my large short position.
➤ Conclusion: Hang on tight!
Apple watch ban, Home depot news stinks, NOPE bear etf up 4%3 days holidays weekend have a tendency to be reversal points, trader known tendency. sure seems like it for this 3 day presidents weekend.
Junk bonds week, energy range bound in channels sideways, treasury yields rising, and retail news from home depot and walmart comes in weak. Oh and vix is threatening to go higher.
Stocks arent cheap yet. 20 toe 30 Price to earnings everywhere.
wen sale?
S&P500 - Temporarily exhaustedHello traders!
As presented in previous posts, we believe that price has showed to be in a primary wave (B) to the upside to correct all the downtrend from January 2022 high. Price is likely to ungoing the last leg up of this upside correction. Low volumes and over entusiasm about the soft landing narrative suggest us that this rally can go up to 4300+ before reversing, but we do not take higher highs as our base case.
However, price arrived at a big resistance, with the blue wlfe wave still valid, and managed to exhaust the upside steam creating multiple divergences e lower lows. Also, VIX seems to be about to breakout a bullish wolfe wave :
We sometimes get insights by looking at VVIX, which is the same algorithm of the Vix applied to the VIX itself:
Here we can see that VVIX already broke out, suggesting bullishness for the VIX and bearishness for the index.
We are therefore short from @4152. Our stop loss is already placed on entry. Our first target is 3940, we will re evaluate the price action if we get there.
Breaking 4090 confirms more downside.
Happy trading!
Keep a close eye on this breakout!Traders,
Keep a close eye on this breakout on our fear index. So far, nothing significant has followed to the same level of price movement: the dollar is still under its macro-uptrend resistance, the US500 is still using its macro-uptrend for support logarithmically, and the US10yr/US2yr remains under resistance.
But we want to track this closely to find out the legitimacy of this spike in fear. Confirmation can be had if one of the indicators mentioned above follows and breaks its support/resistance (see yesterday's video for more).
Best,
Stew
DAX: Volatility is picking up DAX - Volatility is picking up - Already one reversal at lower #BouhmidiBands today - Stay tuned for the next one.
Two Big Indicators to Watch This WeekTraders,
There are two cautionary indicators that I want you to be aware of and to watch closely this week. One of them has to do with U.S. treasuries which lead our dollar strength/weakness. The other has to do with the 200 week moving average on the Bitcoin chart. Let's dive in and take a look at these two very important lead indicators.
Stew
2/20/2023 (Monday) SPY Analysis and Market Deep DiveMonday 2/20/2023 - In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities.
In the Trading View App, You can use the links below and hit play, so you can see the action from the dates the charts were published. I will keep this going so we can follow outcomes to analysis!
Don't Leave Me Hanging! 20 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equity prices finished Friday trade in an unconvincing manner. It looks like a wo(man) struggling to hang on from height (as illustrated). Obviously I'm a bit biased given my short positioning. Price did hold above the recent low at 405 so there is an opportunity for price to continue to recover.
➤ BTW, have you noticed that on every Friday since the start of the year, the market has closed higher than the open? What does it mean? Probably nothing...just thought it was good trivia.
➤ Anyhow, the price is really hugging my predicated price path nicely. To stay that way, we need to see the price drop immediately on resumption of trade Tuesday. There's nothing magical about the path, it is completely coincidental that the price is following it.
➤ Conclusion: Look out below.
WARNING: VIX IS EXPLODING TO THE UPSIDE!I cannot stress this enough: we are going to see volatility explode really soon. From what I see from the 5 mins chart, Tuesday might see a lower opening that will be the lowest the market will see in some time. Ending diagonals are significant. And they are also incredibly reliable patterns. I had traded this pattern multiple times when I was a professional trader in a proprietary trading firm and also in a hedge fund. I cannot stress this enough. Volatility is going to explode really soon.
Please be careful.
And good luck as always.
DAX-Trading with Bouhmidi-Bands $DAX - If its nice take it twice! - We had two chartbook reversals with #BouhmidiBands today. Good Start for a weekend
Interesting phenomenon on VIX.. is WW3 possible ? if you watch this graph.. sit down.. watch ... calm down.. look around what is happening in the world .. and decide for yourself what can happen.. It is good to be prepared for everything.. Inflation this year will calm down.. interest rates will go up.. vix will go down.. The world will calm down.. but the governments will start arming more... the conflict in Ukraine will not end but will escalate.. until the point when there will be a landing and the 3rd world war will start... west against east... and then the world will be reborn and a new era of humanity will begin... war is inevitable.. the greed of governments is endless... the world must undergo a bloody change... and change is within reach..
VIX Inverse Head And Shoulders.Likely will reach 1.618. S&P500 will likely print between $3920-$3850. Always, long VIX with caution.
It's Showtime! 17 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ We continue to see significant intra-day volatility in equities. Swings in excess of 1% up and down are now the norm. We should continue to expect this especially during this crucial period.
➤ This is the first day after many that the prices have managed to finish lower. The Bulls were not able to support the price. Their attempts today failed. That was sufficient to give me the signal to go ALL IN. Meaning, I am now SHORT with the maximum position size. It's Showtime!
➤ For things to go my way, I firstly need to see the price confidently break below 405. This was the recent low in the side-ways movement in the past couple of weeks. Then there is the much watched 200-day moving average at around 400. Below that is a possible fast drop to 390. That's around a 5% move from current levels.
➤ Conclusion: The Short trade plan is beginning to move in my favour but plenty of things may go wrong.
Market now looking to go BearishWith the massive selloff in the market today and the great setup on the VIX it is looking like this little bull run could now be over.
In my 2 chart pics I have the daily charts of the SPY and the VXX. This looks very obvious that the VXX is ready to spike which will send the market lower.
It is always important when determining where the market is going, to look at the vix. If the vxx is bearish the market is likely bullish, if the vxx is bullish the market will likely be bearish. It will mostly be opposite.
So right now the VXX is setting up very bullish for Friday. I will be mostly looking for bearish setups to trade on Friday for the top stocks and indicess
Now it is also important to view the futures over night because they could easily turn around a rally setting up for a gap up in the SPY the next day.
VIX: VOLATILITY CYCLES / PREDICTION / EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGEDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a SEMI-MACRO analysis of VIX. I have decided to reduce the number of BARS that it will take for the Volatility Index to see its next price action cycle with past cycles lasting up too 250, 300, or 375 BARS to complete. With current price action trajectory and support it appears 250 BARS would be the most suitable span of time for this current cycle to complete.
POINTS:
1. Deviation of 7 Points Remains the same for SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKET PLACEMENT.
2. 8 YEAR UPTREND Line has nearly made contact & is indicative of VIX seeing a rubber band reaction to the upside.
3. Current DOWNTREND pattern is being squeezed against 8 year trend.
IMO: If price action sees a break to the upside past 21.50 it will be a sure enough bet that VIX will then be looking for 26 Points.
EMA'S: PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO TIGHT MOMENTUM OF ALL THREE EMA'S (45,100,200) WHICH USUALLY INDICATIVE OF UPCOMING SHIFT IN TREND.
RSI: In regard to RSI crucial pivot point levels are mapped by using past positions held by RSI when VIX would eventually bottom out.
MACD: The VIX and MACD share a parallel relationship in the way that as soon as MACD touches MEDIAN and switches directions price action on VIX will come to see a shift in momentum. Currently MACD is in negative territory but should be another solid indicator for when VIX is ready to rubber band to the upside.
SCENARIO #1: In a BULLISH scenario price action continues to be supported by threshold at 19 & by March 8th it would be inevitable for PRICE ACTION to not be carried TO THE UPSIDE by the 45 EMA with current TRAJECTORY if SUPPORT OF 19 HOLDS.
SCENARIO #2: In a BEARISH scenario this setup would become invalidated if price action is to BREAK TO THE DOWNSIDE past the 19 SUPPORT LEVEL. And would depend on a future hold of of at least 16.80 to be held in order to respect 8 YEAR UPTREND.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
TVC:VIX
VIX .... Heads UpThis market has been in a 4 1/2 month decline.
Traditionally this market moves inversely to the SPX. Although...not so much recently.
Technically this looks like it's set up for a good risk reward trade.
This scenario fits into my expected correction in the ES in the near term. See my posted SPX idea linked below..
Now or Never, 16 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ For the fourth consecutive day, price finished the trading day higher than the open. All this "bullish" action has occurred within the shadows of the large "bearish" bar on 9th Feb.
➤ Yesterday, I looked at the Bearish case of this "laboured" move. Today I'm going to touch on the Bullish story.
➤ The case for being Bullish is quite simple. The market has formed a Bullish "flag" technical chart formation. This is a minor retracement where prices whipsaw up and down either in a sideways or slight downward manner within the primary Bull trend. At some stage, price will then accelerate higher by breaking above this price congestion.
➤ The 4 consecutive up bars of recent days is telling us that despite the best effort of the Bears, the Bulls have overcome them.
➤ Conclusion: It is now or never for the short trading plan. Another day like today would see me switch camps to the Bulls.
Dollar Doing a Double CheckTraders,
The Dollar really wants to make sure that its resistance overhead is legit. From a technical perspective, I love this! Should the dollar remain below my macro uptrend line, it will be all bulls for the next few weeks/months in the U.S. stock markets. The dollar should continue its sideways/down movement during the same interim. If the VIX is any indicator, then my thesis appears to remain intact. Watch closely. Blow off top should peak by mid/late summer or early fall.
Best,
Stew
All To Play For, 15 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ The price reaction post the Inflation data was anti-climatic. Equities started lower but ended higher. Overall, slightly down from the previous day.
➤ Don't be fooled by my chart that has plotted an almost perfect trajectory for the price path thus far. This will most certainly be wrong. I'm no Nostradamus.
➤ For Traders like myself who are holding a short position, the rise over the last three days has not managed to surpass the large down day on 9th Feb. Bulls are finding it tough. Of course, that doesn't prevent prices from surging higher, it just shows that the Bears are still in the game. The game is wide open, it is all to play for.
➤ I would need to see the VIX reverse course quick smart though. It collapsed today. A solid up tick is needed for the Bear thesis to play out.
➤ Conclusion: It is still going to plan.
Market ending the last Up leg in the QQQ SP 500 ALL INDEXES The Lack of follow through on the Sp to reach what should be the min target of 4222 with the breaking down of the vix minus 8.75% today is telling me that the final up leg ideal target was 4222 min ideal 4308 is setting up to now Break ALL THE LOWS .
VIX Is Ready To PartyThe VIX looks like its ready to party ahead of today's CPI print.
It recently touched the upward moving monthly trendline and my guess is it moves into the mid to upper twenties short term.
Going to Plan, 14 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Happy Valentine's Day to all my Copiers and Followers! Even if the market is showing you no love, I still will! 😘
➤ Equities moved higher Monday. It was expected but I didn't know to what extent. Nor does it matter unless it moved beyond the levels as set out in my post yesterday: "The Perfect Trade Plan". See related idea below.
➤ Today's aggressive move higher does not alter our plan, if anything, it is going to plan. It can be argued that today's move was pretty meaningless. It was completely encapsulated by the large down bar on 9th Feb, it tells us very little of what happens next. You could further argue that this is a "trap" to allow the big players to exit their holdings or to put on more shorts at a better price. Very much like the bullish price action on 7th Feb. It all has to do with the upcoming main event.
➤ Inflation data Tuesday will almost certainly reveal if the above is true. It will probably also mark the make or break moment for my trade plan. A daily close above 417 on the SPY or if VIX collapses below 17 will force me out of my position with a loss.
➤ Conclusion: Still going to plan.
