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VCP

CLEO (VCP - 28W 24/7 3T)Position update: December 20, 2024. Key factors: 1. Low-risk entry point. 2. Confirmed stage 2 uptrend. 3. Has gone through its majority line of supply. 4. Moving on its own drummer, the stock went up +125% while the index remains nowhere. 5. High relative strength. 6. Volume dries up as less supply coming to the market. 7. Both breakouts accompanied with a decent volume. Considerations: The current market environment remains challenging, as it fails to sustain a bullish trend and continues making lower lows. However, this is the only stock that is setting up properly in the current market. This is a quintessential VCP with clear contractions and a defined entry point. I’d like to see if it can hold up and follow through from here.
IDX:CLEOLong
by rifqonr
NEST (VCP - 7W 8/3 3T)Position Update: December 6, 2024 Key factors: 1. Low-risk entry point. 2. A first proper and buyable base after an IPO. 3. Has gone through its majority line of supply. 4. Moving on its own drummer, the stock went up +96% while the index remains the same spot. 5. High relative strength stock. 6. Volume dries up as less supply coming to the market. 7. The breakout was confirmed with a notable surge in volume Considerations: The current market environment remains challenging, with broader indices showing uncertain and inconsistent behavior, failing to sustain a bullish trend. This is a quintessential VCP with clear contractions and a defined entry point. I’d like to see if it can hold up and follow through from here.
IDX:NESTLong
by rifqonr
BMRI - CUP WITH HANDLEI bought the stock today September 11, 2024 Reasons: 1. Low-risk entry point 2. Long base cup development 3. Formed a classic cup with a nice drifting handle 4. VCP characteristics on the handle 5. One of the leaders in banking sector beside IDX:BRIS 6. We're in a general market bull campaign 7. More stocks start showing traction. Flaws: 1. Currently outperformed by the market 2. No big volume on the breakout I like to see if it can holds up and continue moving higher from here.
IDX:BMRILong
by rifqonr
MARK (VCP - 19W 26/5 3T)I bought my positions today September 26, 2024 Key factors: 1. Low-risk entry point. 2. Confirmed stage 2 uptrend. 3. Has gone through its majority line of supply. 4. Moving on its own drummer, the stock went up +130% while the index only up 10%. 5. High relative strength. 6. Volume dries up as less supply coming to the market. 8. Many traction based on my stock continuum. 9. Early stage of bull market campaign. 10. The market is currently in an easy-dollar environment, where many stocks are setting up constructively and performing well. This is evident as 51% of all stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average. Considerations: While the stock exhibits a solid technical foundation, the breakout is not as robust as typically expected for a stronger move. This is a quintessential VCP with clear contractions and a defined entry point. The stock closed weak and squatted to right at the buy point, which is still within a normal range. I’d like to see if it can hold up and follow through from here.
IDX:MARKLong
by rifqonr
AUTOIND - BUY BEFORE BREAKOUT -LOW CHEAT ENTRY 1. Technical Setup Cup and Handle Pattern: The stock has formed a well-defined cup and handle pattern. This is a bullish continuation pattern and typically indicates that the stock is gearing up for a breakout to the upside. The resistance level to watch is around ₹154–₹155. VCP Pattern (Volatility Contraction Pattern) : Simultaneously, the stock is showing a classic VCP setup, characterized by a series of contractions with decreasing volatility, signaling that supply is being absorbed, and demand may be increasing. The price action is tightening as it approaches the key resistance zone. 2. Volume Analysis Shrinking Volume: During the pullbacks in the VCP pattern, we can see shrinking volume, which is a key characteristic of a potential breakout. This signals that sellers are fewer, and buyers could soon take control. Breakout Volume: A strong breakout needs to be accompanied by a noticeable increase in volume to confirm the move. If this happens, it could lead to a significant upward rally. 3. Resistance and Breakout Levels The stock faces a key resistance around ₹154–₹155 . If it breaks above this level, confirmed by strong volume, it could signal a successful breakout of both the cup and handle and VCP patterns, leading to further upward momentum. 4. Low Cheat Entry Strategy You can enter early (before the breakout) using a low cheat entry around ₹140–₹145. This allows you to enter the trade at a better price with a tighter stop-loss, reducing your risk while potentially capturing a larger portion of the breakout. Stop-loss: If you opt for a low cheat entry, place a stop-loss around ₹135, just below the last contraction or the handle. This provides a relatively tight risk to reward ratio. 5. Target Price First Target: ₹154–₹155, the immediate resistance level. If you enter early with a low cheat entry, you may consider taking partial profits at this level. Breakout Target: Based on the pattern's depth and the measured move from the cup, the target after a successful breakout could be in the ₹180–₹190 range. 6. Risk Management Stop-Loss : Whether you enter at the breakout or use the low cheat entry, a stop-loss around ₹135 would limit downside risk. Position Sizing: As you're planning a low cheat entry, consider taking a smaller initial position to reduce risk, and possibly adding more once the breakout is confirmed. 7. Market Sentiment and Overall Trend The stock appears to be in an uptrend, trading above the moving averages, and has been consolidating for a while, indicating accumulation. The market sentiment is also a factor—if the overall market is bullish, it increases the chances of a successful breakout. Conclusion Bullish Bias: Both the cup and handle and the VCP pattern suggest a potential bullish breakout. The stock is well-positioned for an upward move if it breaks the ₹154–₹155 resistance level with strong volume. Low Cheat Opportunity: A low cheat entry around ₹140–₹145 offers a chance to enter early with a tighter stop-loss, increasing the risk-to-reward potential. Targets: The short-term target is around ₹154–₹155, with a breakout target ranging from ₹180–₹190. This stock looks promising for a bullish trade, especially if the market conditions align with the breakout. Keep a close watch on the price action around key levels, and ensure proper risk management with stop-losses.
NSE:AUTOINDLong
by minion_traders
BLS INTL SERVS- Base-On-Base- LOOK FOR A BUY 1. VCP Analysis: - Multiple Contractions : The stock is forming a VCP pattern where volatility has decreased with each successive pullback. You can see that each decline in price gets progressively smaller, which indicates that sellers are getting exhausted, and buyers are stepping in earlier at each pullback. - Tightening Price Action : The pattern shows price action tightening, with the stock forming higher lows. This is typical in a VCP setup, as volatility contracts before a breakout. 2. Moving Averages (9 SMA and 21 SMA): - 9 SMA (Blue Line) : The stock price has been trading above the 9 SMA for a considerable time. This suggests that short-term momentum remains bullish. - 21 SMA (Red Line) : The stock is also above the 21 SMA, confirming that the medium-term trend is upward. Additionally, the 9 SMA crossing above the 21 SMA earlier signals a bullish crossover , a positive indication for the stock. - Support from Moving Averages : The 9 SMA is offering short-term support, while the 21 SMA serves as a secondary support. If the stock pulls back, these two SMAs will be crucial levels to watch. 3. Breakout and Price Action : - Resistance Break : The stock has recently broken through a resistance level around ₹404. This level has now turned into support. The breakout is a positive signal, especially in a VCP setup, as it often leads to continued upward movement. - Volume Confirmation : Volume during the breakout appears significant, supporting the price movement. However, volume has decreased post-breakout, indicating potential consolidation before another move higher. 4. Key Levels: - Support Levels: - The first support is around ₹414, where the breakout occurred. - The next level of support is likely the 21 SMA (currently around ₹438). - Resistance: - The immediate resistance zone is around ₹460-₹470. If the stock clears this level, it could indicate further upside potential. 5. Volume Consideration: - Volume Contraction : Volume seems to have contracted during pullbacks, which is typical in a VCP setup. The most recent breakout above the ₹404 level came with an increase in volume, confirming the strength of the move. - Recent Volume: As the stock approaches resistance, volume has diminished, which could indicate a period of consolidation before the next leg up. Conclusion: The stock is showing a well-formed **VCP** with tightening price action and decreasing volatility, a bullish sign. The breakout above ₹414, supported by volume, suggests further upside is possible. Watch for the stock to maintain its position above the 9 and 21 SMAs for continued strength. Keep an eye on the ₹460-₹470 resistance area, and monitor the volume for confirmation of any further breakouts.
NSE:BLSLong
by minion_traders
BODAL CHEMICAL-LOOK-FOR-BUY-WITH-CHEAT-ENTRY(VCP)This chart presents a Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) , signaling a potential bullish breakout. The integration of moving averages and volume dynamics adds further strength to this analysis, indicating that the stock could soon break out above its resistance. Below is a detailed breakdown, including a volume study. --- 1. VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern): - The chart shows multiple contractions in price , with each pullback becoming progressively smaller. This tightening is a hallmark of the VCP pattern, indicating that sellers are losing strength, and buyers are gradually gaining control. - The final resistance zone is located between ₹85-₹88 . A breakout above this level would confirm the VCP and signal a strong bullish continuation. --- 2. Moving Averages (9 SMA & 21 SMA): - Price above both SMAs : The stock is trading above both the 9-period and 21-period simple moving averages (SMAs), which is a strong bullish indicator. This alignment suggests that short-term momentum is in favor of the bulls. - 9 SMA above 21 SMA : The 9-period SMA being above the 21-period SMA signifies that the shorter-term trend is leading the way, which adds confidence to a possible continuation of the uptrend. --- 3. Volume Study : Volume During Contractions : - A crucial part of identifying a valid VCP is the decreasing volume during price contractions . In the chart, each successive pullback shows lower volume, which indicates that fewer traders are willing to sell as the stock price drops. This aligns perfectly with the concept of volatility contraction, showing that selling pressure is fading. Volume on Upward Moves: - Each upward move is accompanied by increasing volume , indicating that buyers are stepping in to accumulate shares. This is a strong confirmation that the price contractions are valid and that institutional buyers might be behind these moves, building up positions for a future breakout. Volume on Breakout: For a confirmed breakout, watch for a volume spike above ₹85-₹88 . A large increase in volume during the breakout would confirm that the pattern is playing out and that the price could shoot upward to the next resistance zone around ₹95-₹100. --- 4. Low Cheat Entry Opportunity: - Entry at CMP (₹83-₹84): A low cheat entry is possible at the CMP of ₹83-₹84, which allows you to enter the stock before the breakout occurs. This type of early entry can offer a more favorable risk-to-reward ratio. - Stop Loss : Place a tight stop loss around ₹82 , just below the recent low and the 9 SMA. This minimizes risk while allowing you to stay in the trade if the breakout occurs. - Volume Support: As you enter at this level, watch for **volume support** on smaller pullbacks. If the stock dips slightly but maintains increasing volume on upward movements, it’s a good sign the pattern is intact. --- 5. Breakout Confirmation : - The ₹85-₹88 resistance zone is the key level to watch. For the VCP to fully play out, the stock needs to break above this zone, ideally with strong volume to confirm the breakout. - If the stock breaks this level, expect a surge in price with a target around ₹95-₹100 , based on prior resistance levels and the projected move from the VCP. --- 6. Risk-to-Reward Ratio : - Risk : By entering at ₹83-₹84 and placing a stop loss around ₹82, the downside risk is limited to about 1-2% . - Reward : The upside target can range from ₹95 to ₹100 , offering a potential *b]15-20% gain , which gives an excellent risk-to-reward ratio of about 15%. --- Conclusion : This chart shows a strong b]bullish setup , with the VCP pattern tightening for a potential breakout. The moving averages confirm the bullish momentum, with price trading above both the 9 and 21 SMAs, and volume contraction indicates that selling pressure is diminishing. A low cheat entry around ₹83-₹84 offers a good risk-to-reward opportunity, while a breakout above ₹85-₹88 with increasing volume could signal the start of a strong upward move toward ₹95-₹100 . --- Key Action Plan : - Entry : Enter at CMP around ₹83-₹84 . - Stop Loss : Set a stop loss around ₹82 to minimize risk. - Volume Monitoring : Watch for volume contraction on pullbacks and spikes on upward moves. - Breakout : If the stock breaks above ₹85-₹88 with strong volume , expect a strong upward move toward ₹95-₹100 . This setup presents a high-potential opportunity for traders looking for an early entry into a VCP breakout , supported by both moving averages and volume dynamics.
NSE:BODALCHEMLong
by minion_traders
BRIS (VCP - 22W 29/5 3T)I bought my positions today August 21, 2024 Reasons: 1. Low-risk entry point. 2. Confirmed stage 2 uptrend. 3. Has gone through its majority line of supply. 4. Moving on its own drummer, the stock went up +100% in the last three months while the index correcting -3%. 5. High relative strength. 6. Volume dries up as less supply coming to the market. 7. A decent volume on the breakout. Flaws: The general market is still at risk of going into a minor correction. This is a textbook VCP with clear contractions and entry point. The stock closes weak and squat below the buy point which still normal. I like to see if it can holds up and follow through.
IDX:BRISLong
by rifqonr
NUVAMA: Classic Bookish VCP setup- Look for a buy Price Action : - The stock appears to be in an overall uptrend, as evidenced by the higher highs and higher lows visible on the chart. The price has been moving upward with periodic consolidations, which is typical in trending markets. - Currently, the price is consolidating just below a resistance level around the 6,700-6,750 range. This is a critical level to watch as it has been tested multiple times, but the stock has not been able to break through it yet. Moving Averages: - The stock is using both the 9-day and 21-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) as support during its uptrend. The 9-day SMA is above the 21-day SMA, indicating that the short-term trend is still bullish. - The price is currently close to these moving averages, suggesting that the stock might be gearing up for its next move, whether it be a breakout above resistance or a pullback. Volume: - Volume analysis shows a significant spike in one of the red bars, indicating strong selling pressure at that point. However, after that spike, the volume seems to have decreased, which is often a sign of consolidation. - The stock is likely building up pressure, and an increase in volume during the next move (especially a breakout above resistance) would be a strong signal of the market's direction. Key Levels: - Support : The immediate support level is around the 6,150-6,200 range, where the price has found some stability recently. - Resistance : The key resistance level to watch is around 6,700-6,750. A break above this level with strong volume could indicate a continuation of the uptrend. Potential Scenarios : 1. Bullish Scenario : If the stock breaks above the 6,750 resistance with increased volume, it could trigger a new leg up in the ongoing uptrend. This could attract more buyers, potentially pushing the price higher. 2. Bearish Scenario : If the stock fails to break through the resistance and falls below the support level of 6,420-6,300, it could indicate a deeper correction or even a trend reversal. In that case, the next support levels would become crucial. Its classic bookish vcp setup, we can plan low chit entry.
NSE:NUVAMALong
by minion_traders
PGAS (VCP - 12W 15/3 3T)I bought my positions today August 19, 2024 Reasons: 1. Low-risk entry point. 2. Confirmed stage 2 uptrend. 3. Has gone through its majority line of supply. 4. Moving on its own drummer, the stock went up +50% in the last three months while the index correcting -3%. 5. High relative strength. 6. Volume dries up as less supply coming to the market. 7. A huge volume on the breakout. Flawed: The general market is vulnerable to go into a correction This is a quintessential VCP, a very proper looking setup. I like to see some follow through action from now.
IDX:PGASLong
by rifqonr