📊 What is Market Seasonality ? 🎯 Seasonality refers to particular time frames when stocks/sectors/indices are subjected to and influenced by recurring tendencies that produce patterns that are apparent in the investment valuation.
🎯 Seasonality is a characteristic of a time series in which the data experiences regular and predictable changes that recur every calendar year. Any predictable fluctuation or pattern that recurs or repeats over a one-year period is said to be seasonal.
📊 What is a Seasonality Forecast?
In time series data, seasonality refers to the presence of variations which occur at certain regular intervals either on a weekly basis, monthly basis, or even quarterly (but never up to a year). Various factors may cause seasonality - like a vacation, weather, and holidays
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✅ You can use the Market Seasonality as an extra fundamental confluence for the price, we have 2 market seasonalities bullish and bearish. If a price has bullish seasonality it means the pariticular asset will tend to rise during that cycle and viceversa. Market Seasonality (MS) is a good tool to have in your arsenal but only if you are trading on a mid-long term perspective. You can't trade using the market seasonality on a scalping or a intra-day basis because it makes no sense.
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Usoillong
CORN SHORTS 📉📉📉The same view on CORN as on WHEAT chart, we have a nice bullish market strucutre but looks like price is very exhausted and right now we should see a corrective movement down ito 700/600, we have a lot of bullish gaps on it's way and price should retrace to fill those.
On a long-term perspective i am still bullish based on the fundamental context.
What do you think ? ..
Trade Defensively 🔰🔰🔰 🔰 Trading Defensively
• Proper Lot Size
Stop changing the lot size on each trade you take based on the ,, confluences,, your risk should be pre-determined and fixed.
Example you risk only 0.50% from your account on each trade
• Take Profits before News Release
Number one goal is to protect your equity, news can bring high volatility into the markets and random big moves. It is better to fix your profit or move your stoploss to breakeven before important news release
• Use Trailing Stops
Secure the profits and let your winners run, you can apply this strategy when you are already in profit and want to squeeze more from the trade
• Multiple Take Profits
Remember that a win is still a WIN, you dont need big profits to be profitable in the market. You need small consistent wins and over time you will see the difference
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USOIL LONGS 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bullish price action on USOIL as we are in a huge bullish market strucutre from a technical perspective, look to ONLY LONG this asset. I will try to LONG it from D1 Imbalance area or 100$ institutional figure. From a fundamental perspective we are STRONG BULLISH during Ukraine - Russia conflict + market seasonality that is strongly bullish on OIL
I will switch my bias only if price will close below 90$
What do you think ? Comment below..
Crude Oil Movements With the strong demand for travel, unemployment back at 3.9% and less travel restrictions this is where we believe oil will trade.
Resistance Levels:
$85
$83
$77
Support Levels:
$66
$62
$60
$43
If we see widespread market selling due to what most are expecting a 15% correction or more, we can see oil fall below $60.
USOIL - LONG TERMUSOIL - LONG TERM
All you have to do is read the last USOIL outlook to see the all the market projections for the week came through within the first 30 hours of the trading week. OIL opened with a huge gap which will stay unfilled unless there are positive peace talks with Russia or other positive data come out for OIL.
To members I stated earlier today $185 is my next ATH target and we MUST cover this in detail as $110 is the last area of resistance before ATH so we are not far away. Day by day and hour by hour Russia are being shut off from the world and again this is becoming a financial warfare as this is the only way Russia can be targeted by other countries without being drawn into a war. Russia have been taken off SWIFT, NATO have said they won't be joining the fight and the support UKRAINE have received is in the form of weapons etc. Sound familiar? yes because it was all written before it happened.
From further research it looks as though Russia as been building a war chest full of finances in preparation for this (years in advanced). Sanctions were doing little until being kicked off SWIFT, Now Russia are raising interest rates to 20% as the economy is suffering and the Rubel is worthless. There stock market has closed and they are being shut offline from wifi, satellite's and airspace. Russia can survive these sanctions but it will come at grave cost for their country. There is one more power move which countries can come together and make to deplete Russia of any hopes of recovery. BAN THE PURCHASING OR RUSSIAN ENERGY.
Banning the purchase or Russian energy comes as collateral for other countries, although it would plummet Russia to a fifth world country it would have mass financial effect on the price of crude oil(WTI CRUDE) for the rest of the world. Supply and demand is the simple terms for it. Cutting from Russian gasses for EU countries would turn them to crude and this would further drive the price up and should this happen, remember this $185.12 and higher will be seen.
WTI (CRUDE OIL) is use to most things you can think of - Fuel, plastics, packaging, textiles and the list is endless. This would drive the cost of living up worldwide pushing us all into a deep recession depending on how long it all lasted.
Next checkpoints :
Russian energy ban
New ATH
Deep world recession
Crude Oil Rising Higher prices.Hello, I am looking at crude oil and it seems to me based off everything that is going on, we will most likely see crude oil hit new highs once more. At it current state, it is a potential buy scenario. Stop would be placed below the old low and target would be the all time high.
USOIL - WEEK 9USOIL - WEEK 9
At this moment in time it is absolutely pointless mapping any form of technical analysis on the likes of WTI, Gold and other pairs due to the heart breaking situation ongoing in eastern Europe. Everything written up regarding SWIFT has now happened (It was no surprise as it was the only way for the outside world to cripple Russia without war). This war has the potential to last for months causing chaos in the FX, crypto and stock market.
When the market opens we can expect large gaps in all areas so I will not trade Monday whilst the market catches up with itself. I will not go to deep into technicals because at this stage they have no validity. I have marked two dipping zones for WTI which I would be interested in taking longs from but I would be surprised if we even saw a dip. I expect WTI to enter back within the $100 per barrel in the near future.
From here out, it is simple///
Prolonged conflict, sanctions and negative reports will cause bullish impulses in WTI BUT on the other hand.
A break from conflict, sanctions lifted and positive media reports will cause bearish impulses on WTI.
At this moment in time we are all trading fundamentals rather technicals.
USOIL 91.05 -3.03 % LONG IDEA * CONT. PTTNS & PRICE ACTIONHELLO EVERYONE
HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GOOD ONE.
LOOKING AT THE USOIL
* The ENERGY is currently trading in an uptrend , just consolidated, broke out and retested the structure .
- Short term the pair has currently at the supply zone could go lower but looking for possible continuation with the bulls.
- Looking for LONG entries on the THE CRUDE this week should all the rules of the formation be met.
******* CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES ON THURSDAY, there is a decrease in the oil is actually less than expected @ 1.121 M which implies HIGHER demand and the energy could react BULLISH.
So lets see how it goes
IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY OR IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE
SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON & LEAVE A COMMENT.
ALWAYS APPRECIATED
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* Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT.
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| * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - SWING TRADE
OIL LONG ZONEPress the Follow button for more Daily Detailed Analysis.
After current global tensions and the scare amongst commodity markets, we have seen plenty of volatility. It is important to manage your risk correctly and remember you can hedge on drops back to comfortable support.
These areas will allow you to Trade in the way of the market and ease any pain.
Look to get long at the eclipse symbol area.
USOIL MARKET OVERVIEW WTI - OVERVIEW
WTI followed analysis perfectly and tapped $90.70 which was our TP 2 region for 365 pips. WTI saw the reversal back up from here but failed to break the HL and the daily closed fairly neutral. I am somewhat bearish and bullish on WTI.
As explained previously positive Russia news and Iran entering the market will cause a mass sell off and right now we are seeing some of the most bearish price action we have seen in a while all whilst Russia invaded but price failed to break the recent highs, what does that tell you?? It's all a show, bravado and likely nothing will come of it but any FUD will allow for manipulation.
Should Negative news on Russia (FUD) or the Irian and US nuclear fall through it's likely WTI will go higher.
Economies are struggling with rising inflation and with WTI as one of the most impacted commodities society and nations are feeling the burn to the point where it is not becoming unsustainable. WTI needs to come down to counteract this damage and positive media about Russia and Iran coming back to the markets is a perfect way to do this.
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Us Oil back to $ 94 ? // Previous weekly candle Liquidity?Looking for Buys on this pair, for the 3 reasons listed below. Additionally , although we are in a range on the 4hr timeframe, this does not mean we cannot read 1hr market structure within the range to anticipate moves . After all the range is 4$ which is quite significant. volatility is consistently higher than what we have seen in previous years on this asset.
US OIL MARKET OUTLOOKWTI - Market outlook.
Last week we did well on WTI taking some big trades and a few scalps, this week we have smashed it straight away. All projections have been followed to perfection and altered along the way when needs be. A new Higher Low was created in the bearish channel and we have secured over 300 pips today from this move. We are anticipating more bearish pressure from here but below 89.44 and we will see a swift move lower.
We are well positioned, SL at breakeven, 50% of profits already taken and now we can relax and watch the market do whatever it likes. In this climate WTI can go anyway which it pleases, fundamentals will be more apparent and will shine through before the technicals which is why we are taking profits and securing entries at breakeven.
As stated in the week 8 outlook this is an important week and would should get a medium-long term direction after this week. Iran entering the market and a peace agreement with Russia with sink WTI and start a bear cycle which is what economies will want as at the current climate the inflation is becoming unbearable.
Don't miss out!
USoil 1D (upward due to war of Russia on Ukraine) the direction now will move between 92.80 and 91.80 , so by breaking this zone to up will be upward also opposite that will be down.
and by the technically chart the direction is upward, due to the situation of the War Russia on Ukraine should be get bulish.
---------------
Upward
entry: above 92.80
tp.: 94.70 & 98.23 & 100
sl.: 91.25
USOIL still has room to climb 🚀Hi Traders,
USOIL has been developing bearish price action recently which we were expecting a drop from the upper boundary of the HTF. As we know in trading, the market changes very quickly which we need to adapt our minds to look for all possibilities and looking at the current developement in price action, we can see price moving within a decending channel with a double bottom to push the price up one more time to around 98.0 or even 100.0 range.
Whats your view on USOIL? Leave a comment below and let's talk about it.
Click the like button if you agree!
USOIL - WEEK 8WTIUSD - WEEK7.
We have began to see some bearishness in oil now and it's causing issues within the market. Oil is more fundamentally driven rather than technically driven at the moment which is why we are seeing impulsive spikes on the charts. Oil has triggered a bearish channel in its overall bullish trend. Oil dropped today which was projected and made a new LL in the channel but this is now a confirmed LH in the over all trend. The candles show direction and it's very clear the bearish candles are much more aggressive than the bullish ones showing bears in control.
Oil has broken a wedge within the channel and looks to be heading up, I potentially will be shorting Oil should the correct set up present itself. I will be looking to see how the candles react with the trendline before I make any trades. The swing high now lies at the major line of 94.50-60 and this is where we will either turn bullish or bearish. I expect price to creep back into this region but I will wait for confirmation before entering anything as I expect some wild moves and fake outs.
Iran look as though they could be coming back into the market to dump a lot of their oil which would cause a mass sell off, in reality there is going to be a peace deal with Russia but inflation still remains a problem. Due to conflicting fundamentals and technicals I have no bias in oil right now. I am leaning towards bearish in the medium to long term but we need the media to stop scare mongering first.
Oil can go in any direction from here and when trading it you need to be willing to accept that should it go against you. I will be waiting for confirmation and upon a new HL made I will short.
Above 94.50-60 = BULLISH
Below 94.50-60 = BEARISH