OIL: Day 3 breakout short reversalHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range ✅ day 2 cycle
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day
First Green Day ✅
3 Days Long Breakout
3 Days Short Breakout
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump
Dump&Pump ✅
Frontside
Backside ✅
4. THESIS:
Long: primary, Friday day 3, market on the backside, is a high quality potential long setup, back to the HOW if criteria will be met. Consolidation till OIL market opening at least (9am NYT).
Short: secondary, not interested today in this scenario, however, the pump of yesterday can fail, with a further failed daily breakout going to re test the LOW.
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
Crude Oil WTI
USOIL BUYERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
Hello, Friends!
USOIL is making a bearish pullback on the 1D TF and is nearing the support line below while we are generally bullish biased on the pair due to our previous 1W candle analysis, thus making a trend-following long a good option for us with the target being the 83.51 level.
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OIL: Day 3 short in the market, inside day and potential FGDHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2 ✅ no daily cycle
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day
First Green Day ✅
3 Days Long Breakout
3 Days Short Breakout ✅
Inside Day ✅
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump
Dump&Pump ✅
Frontside
Backside
4. THESIS:
Long: primary, considering the overall template and signal day, I would be looking for a long trade if the market will consolidate till 9am at least for a potential dump and pump template, long trade back to Asia high.
Short: secondary, no daily high has been triggered yet, Oil can potential keep going down. I do not exclude a blow off with the original trend. However, is not a setup I mastered
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
US Oil: Market Structure Shift
🚀 **US Oil: Market Structure Shift & FVG Targeting Buy-Side Liquidity!** 🚀
US Oil has been making waves in the market! 🌊 After a significant move that took out the sell-side liquidity, we've witnessed a powerful market structure shift. This pivotal change has created an exciting fair value gap (FVG) 🎯, setting its sights on the buy-side liquidity.
This shift signals a potential bullish momentum 📈, providing traders with lucrative opportunities to capitalize on the market's upward trajectory. As the FVG narrows, the target on buy-side liquidity becomes clearer, making it a critical zone for traders to watch. 👀
Stay tuned and keep your eyes on US Oil as it continues to navigate through this dynamic market landscape! 🌟💹
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Oil prices can still be shorted at around 77 to make a profit.
The overall trend of oil shows the closing stage of the arc top. There are still some opportunities for decline to short the oil price to make a profit.
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I have been observing investors in the market for a while. I can't bear to see some people in the market continue to lose money because they don't know how to trade. So I plan to continue to share my operating ideas for a while for your reference.
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USOIL / Bearish confirmation toward 79.49 Technical Analysis: USOIL
Current Outlook:
The price is expected to touch 80.70 and then consolidate between 80.70 and 81.70 until a breakout occurs.
Bullish Scenario:
For a bullish trend to be established, the price should reverse and stabilize above 82.27, targeting 82.25 and 84.14. There is also a possibility of a bullish retest up to 81.70.
Bearish Scenario :
As long as the price trades below 81.70, it will likely drop to 79.50. The price needs to break below 80.70 to confirm the bearish trend, ideally closing a 1-hour candle under this level.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 81.22
- Support Levels: 79.49, 77.94, 75.35
- Resistance Levels: 81.72, 82.24, 84.14
Today's Expected Range:
The price is anticipated to move between the support at 79.49 and the resistance at 82.15.
Thursday Trouble Crude OilWe are nearing the end of the week and have had some nice movement heading lower..
I have marked out the Previous Day Wick ( PD Wick ) If price is to retrace today for NY this is where I would expect it to stop and head lower / consolidate at least.
The Draw on Price are bellow :
Daily +OB
Daily EQL'S
DAILY FVG
USOIL BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
USOIL is making a bullish rebound on the 1H TF and is nearing the resistance line above while we are generally bearish biased on the pair due to our previous 1W candle analysis, thus making a trend-following short a good option for us with the target being the 76.54 level.
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WTI Oil - 4HWTI oil completed its second bullish leg and has now formed a reversal setup. The price action shows that WTI missed the ascending channel support and is currently consolidating below the previous support zone, which has now turned into a resistance level. This suggests a potential bearish outlook as the price struggles to regain upward momentum.
With the recent break of the ascending channel, it is expected that WTI may continue its downward trajectory. The consolidation under the new resistance zone indicates seller strength, and further declines could be seen if the price fails to break back above this resistance. Traders should watch for key support levels around $81 and $78 for potential buy signals or continuation of the bearish trend.
WTI rebounds after larger crude drawdownAfter falling sharply in the last few days, crude oil prices were trying to form support as WTI tested its technically-important 200-day average following the release of US oil inventories data. The data showed a larger-than-expected drawdown of 3.7 million barrels on the headline front. Stocks of oil products (gasoline and distillates) and crude inventories at Cushing all showed drawdowns too. In theory, oil prices should find some support on the back of these numbers. However, with global economic data remaining soft this week, demand concerns continue to hold back oil prices. So, a clear bullish signal is needed to encourage the bulls to step back in on oil.
If we see any distinct bullish reversal signals on WTI or Brent, then this would suggest that at least some buying could be on the way in the days ahead, as the previous selling pressure is potentially replaced by buying. Let’s see if that happens today.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bearish reversalWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 79.03 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 80.70 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 75.23 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
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WTI OIL Correction is over. Buy strongly.WTI Oil (USOIL) followed our July 02 (see chart below) sell signal to perfection as it got rejected on the Lower Highs trend-line and Resistance 1 and broke today below the 0.618 Fib, hitting our 77.00 Target in the process:
For that projection we used the February 05 Low as a benchmark, which also hit the 0.618 Fib and rebounded on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). That has been the multi-year Support level for WTI, so we currently won't get a better long-term buy signal than this.
As a result, we are now turning bullish again on Crude, targeting the -0.5 Fib extension (as on the April 05 High) at 90.50.
Note also that the 1D RSI is almost oversold at 30.00, a clear cyclical buy signal in the recent past (green circles).
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Crude oil latest analysis and signal strategies.Crude oil technical analysis
Daily resistance 82-83.4, support below 80-77
Four-hour resistance 82-82.5, support below 80
Crude oil operation suggestions: The overall price of crude oil maintains a narrow range of fluctuations. In the short term, the oil price stands above the 80 mark, and still maintains a wide range of long and short fluctuations. Pay attention to the 81.1/82.5 resistance above. Today, the support below continues to focus on the 80 integer mark. A downward breakthrough may reach around 79-78. Rely on this range to maintain high selling and low buying during the day
SELL:83.4near SL:83.8
SELL:82.5near SL:82.8
Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST July 22-26th: OIL INDICES GOLD SILVERThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast JuLY 22 - 26th
In this video, we will cover:
S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US OIL UK OIL
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
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All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Oil Prices Plunge Amid Global UncertaintyCurrent Price Movement:
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on the NYMEX have extended their downside, trading below $78.00. This decline is primarily driven by concerns over China's economic outlook and political uncertainty in the United States.
Factors Influencing the Oil Price:
China’s Economic Concerns:
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) unexpectedly reduced its Loan Prime Rate by 10 basis points to 3.35% (one-year) and 3.85% (five-year).
This rate cut follows weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP growth of 0.7%, below estimates of 1.1% and previous figures of 1.5%.
As the world's largest oil importer, China’s economic slowdown raises concerns about future oil demand, exerting downward pressure on prices.
Supply Outlook:
Morgan Stanley forecasts an increase in oil supply by 2.5 million barrels per day by 2025 from OPEC and non-OPEC producers.
The anticipated supply growth exceeds demand growth projections, contributing to the easing of tight market fears and further weakening oil prices.
US Political Uncertainty:
The potential nomination of Kamala Harris as the Democratic leader and speculation about Donald Trump’s potential victory in the upcoming presidential election have created political uncertainty.
Trump’s promise to increase US oil production if elected could lead to a future increase in supply, adding downward pressure on oil prices.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has edged lower amidst this political uncertainty, affecting oil prices inversely.
Global Economic Indicators:
Preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data from various nations are expected to provide insights into the global demand outlook, which will further influence oil prices.
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Dynamics:
The USD/CAD pair has risen to near 1.3750, influenced by the sharp correction in oil prices.
Canada, being a leading oil supplier to the US, sees its currency affected by oil price movements. The weakening CAD amidst declining oil prices reflects this relationship.
Expectations of the Bank of Canada (BoC) cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% due to easing price pressures and a cooling labor market also impact the CAD.
US Economic Data:
The trajectory of the US Dollar will be influenced by upcoming US economic data, providing clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
Political developments, such as the withdrawal of Joe Biden's re-election bid, have added to the uncertainty, impacting the DXY and, consequently, oil prices.
Monday evening Pondering - Crude OilSo as I stated in my last post, we would have a short range day as per previous large ranged day.
We did attack the SSL as target 1 however Im looking at price heading higher to the BSL and 1hr FVG before we head down...
Lets see what Asia and early London does..
Will update nearer to NY for Turbo Tuesday...
USOIL - Short from bearish order block !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USOIL.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure, so I look for a short . My point of interest is if price continue the retracement to fill the imbalance higher and then to reject from bearish order block + liquidity zone.
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Summary of Bullish Outlook for (WTI) OilSeveral factors are contributing to a bullish outlook for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices in the near future:
1. **Rising Global Demand**: As major economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, industrial and transportation activities are increasing, particularly in Asia with significant contributions from China and India.
2. **Production Cuts**: OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) continue to implement production cuts to stabilize and boost oil prices, preventing significant declines.
3. **Declining Oil Inventories**: Recent reports show a notable decrease in oil inventories in the United States and other countries, indicating higher consumption and demand in the market.
4. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Instability in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and North Africa can lead to supply concerns and price increases.
5. **Investment in Alternative Energies**: While the long-term shift to renewable energy sources may reduce oil demand, short-term transitions and policy changes can cause price volatility and increases.
### Conclusion
Given these factors, the outlook for WTI oil prices is bullish. Investors and analysts should closely monitor these dynamics to make informed decisions in the oil market.
Crude Oil BIAS - Monday So Friday Crude showed its hand to us and what it was really wanting to do.
Sell side hit and with that a large Daily Displacement.
We could expect a smaller range day today and with that said I am looking for short term BSL to be taken before to carry on to the sell side of the chart.
I have two targets marked out clearly for this weeks initial draw on liquidity and the BIAS.
USDCAD - A MEGA Drop Inbound!Complex is an understatement for USDCAD. As you can see from the chart, we have been meticulous in our analysis.
To put it plainly. we are in a major WXY correction (3-3-3). We are in the final stretch of the correction (Wave Y), which appears to be a 535 zigzag.
We are currently in subwave 2 and looking for a massive move down to complete the overall WXY correction.
Trade Idea:
- Watch for subwave 2 to complete
- Once at the top of the structure, watch for rejection
- Enter when reversal signs appear
- Targets: 1.34 (400pips), 1.31 (700pips)
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!