Crude Oil WTI
Crude could squeeze furtherIntraday Update: Crude is testing some key resistance which is previous support from June. A break higher would put the descending trend line at $74.20 in play.
USOIL Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USOIL for a buying opportunity around 70.50 zone, USOIL was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 70.50 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
What will happen given the tensions?USOIL has formed an ascending triangle this means that the price can easily increase as much as the measured price movement( AB=CD )but only after the expected breakout happens.
As tensions rise in the Middle East, Oil and Gold prices will rise.
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WTI Oil H4 | Rising into resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 72.15 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 74.58 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 68.63 which is an overlap support.
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"Bitcoin to $100K by 2024? Here’s Why $270K by 2030 Isn’t Far OfBitcoin is dancing around the $61K mark with intense volatility, but here’s where it gets exciting. I predict BTC will skyrocket to $100K by the end of 2024, riding the wave of bullish momentum from the upcoming halving event. Looking even further ahead? With institutional adoption ramping up, we could be staring at a jaw-dropping $270,593 per Bitcoin by 2030. This could be the start of something huge—what do you think? Let’s spark the conversation!
USOIL- at resistance? Holds or not??#USOIL - market just near his resistance area.
Keep close it because if market hold it then again drop expexted.
Don't be lazy here
Good luck
Trade wisely
2024-10-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Bullish outside bar with big tails above and below. Still a strong day by the bulls but they could not get above last weeks high 72.39 which shows they are not that strong. 50% pb is around 68 so market is neutral there. We are at 70 and I expect it to be bigger resistance. Bulls want 73 to test the upper bear trend line.
comment: Bull spike was big enough to expect a second leg. Bears tested the lows enough from a technical perspective and I do think the pain trade is up. One measured move target is 74, which would be around the upper bear trend line and that is my preferred target for the bulls as of now.
current market cycle: trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart
key levels : 66 - 74
bull case: Bulls should not let it drop below 68.5. If they keep it above the 1h 20ema, their odds continue to be great for a second leg to 73 or higher. There is a small chance that the pullback already happened to 69.76 and we move higher from here. Will reevaluate tomorrow morning before EU open. Bulls are favored.
Invalidation is below 69.5.
bear case: Bears need to keep it a lower high below 72.4 or market will likely move to 73/74 with force. The 71.5 price is roughly the 50% pullback for the last bear leg and market continues to find sellers in that area. As long as that is the case, we will likely continue sideways between 66 - 72.
Invalidation is above 72.4.
short term: Bullish above 69.5, expecting a second leg up.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08 : Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: 67 was previous support and market got to 66.32 before we got a decent pullback. Could you have anticipated the spike? Maybe. The buying below 67 was strong enough to expect a second leg up and maybe retest 68. I’m happy for everyone who caught it.
CRUDE OIL Will Hit Resistance Soon! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL keeps growing
And the price will soon
Hit a horizontal resistance
Of 72.00$ from where
A local bearish correction
Is to be expected
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
OIL: Three days short traders in the market Hi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance ✅
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day
First Green Day
3 Days Long Breakout
3 Days Short Breakout ✅
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump ✅
Dump&Pump
Frontside
Backside ✅
4. THESIS:
Long: secondary, although I'm not looking for any long setup at the moment, the market can still retest the current LOD (placed in London session), consolidate and reverse for a scalp eventually back inside the opening range.
Short: primary, the market is currently breaking down, placing a lower low during London session and pumped back up into the previous LOD. If the market will retest that level (high of session as well), I will be willing to take a short trade back into the current LOD and don't forget that on the bigger picture it can also perform a 4 weeks pump and dump.
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
WTI OIL Channel Down prevailed. Lower Low expected.WTI Oil (USOIL) eventually failed to recover the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the Resistance since August 13, and reversed the short-term rebound. The 3-month Channel Down appears to have prevailed and technically is now looking for its third Lower Low.
The previous two declined by -18.47% and -15.18% respectively, so roughly we same % drop. As the 1D MACD formed a Bearish Cross today, we can claim that we have the necessary confirmation for a Bearish Leg that at best, we are half-way on it.
Assuming the minimum drop of -15.18%, we expect to see at least $62.00 before this Leg prices the Lower Low.
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BRIEFING Week #39 : China RoaringHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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USOIL / UNDER BULLISH PRESSURE - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Recent Decline , Prices began to drop at the end of September by 7.12%. This indicates a noticeable downtrend, which could be driven by various market factors.
Support Level at 67.22 , Currently, prices are trading slightly above this key support level. If the price breaks below 67.22, it may trigger a further decline of 9.80%.
Potential for Rebound , If the support level holds, a potential rise could occur. Two potential rise targets are a 3.48% increase and a 6.27% increase, depending on how strong the support level is and whether positive momentum returns.
Technical Analysis:
Current Support Level , The price of USOIL is currently above 67.22. This level serves as a critical support point; if prices remain above this, it suggests bullish sentiment.
Target Range (FVG) , If prices hold above 67.22, the analysis predicts an upward movement toward a Fair Value Gap (FVG) area between 68.73 and 69.48. This implies potential buying interest or liquidity in that range.
Further Resistance , If the price breaks through the FVG area, it could rise further to reach a resistance level at 71.74. This indicates a bullish outlook if the upward momentum continues.
Conversely, if the price drops below 67.22, it suggests a bearish trend, potentially declining to 65.24. This indicates a shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish.
MCL: One-Two Punch Could Lift Crude Oil to Higher GroundNYMEX: Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures ( NYMEX:MCL1! )
On September 18th, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rate by a supersized 50 basis points, ushering a long-awaited monetary easing cycle.
Six days later, on September 24th, China introduced a broad stimulus package to revive its economy. It includes cutting interest rates, reducing bank reserve requirements, supporting the property sector, and injecting liquidity into the stock market. Specifically,
• The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, cut its 7-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.5% from 1.7%
• The PBOC slashed the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5%
• The PBOC lowered home mortgage downpayment requirements to 15%; previously, those buying houses other than primary residence were required to put down 25%
• Separately, the PBOC would advise banks to lower mortgage interest rate by 0.5%
• The PBOC also announced a new RMB $1 trillion long-term credit facility (equivalent to US$143 billion). It allows financial institutions to use their stocks, bonds and ETF funds as collateral to obtain funding from the PBOC. The use of fund is specifically earmarked for credit lending to publicly traded companies for stock buyback
Each of these policies is a major stimulus measure. Putting together, they have the potential to reshape the economic outlook for China, and for the rest of the world as well.
Following the announcement, Chinese stock markets clocked their best week in 16 years as the CSI 300 rallied 15.7%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index recorded a weekly gain of 12.75%. On Friday, the CSI 300 climbed 4.47% to close at 3,703.68, its highest level in a year, while the HSI rose 3.32% to 20,586.94, its highest since February 2023.
On Monday, September 30th, China’s SSE Composite Index rallied 8.06%, closing at 3,336.50. This marks a nine-day winning streak, its best day since September 2008 and its highest point since August 2023.
In 2024, China’s economy has slowed significantly. Last week, China released its industrial profit data for August, which saw a 17.8% plunge year on year. On a year-to-date basis, profits at large industrial firms grew at 0.5% to 4.65 trillion yuan ($663.47 billion) for the first eight months, down from 3.6%.
However, China’s supersized monetary policies could help its economy turn a corner. It is highly expected that China’s Ministry of Finance will follow suit to announce new fiscal stimulus and add more ammunition to fuel economic growth.
Together, the extraordinary measures installed by the Top 2 economies, which account for 40% of global GDP, could help improve the global economy in a meaningful way.
WTI Crude Oil: Higher Demand from Economic Growth
While it is still too early to quantify how much the global economy would benefit from these stimulus measures, we could expect higher industrial output from the government credit extension and the lower business cost of capital. The potential impact could be huge for stocks, bonds, foreign exchange and commodities. Today, my analysis concentrates on crude oil.
The Fed rate cut and China Stimulus package both exceeded market expectations. These are game changers big enough to reverse the declining trend of crude oil prices. Recent escalation of Middle East conflict would only add to the uncertainty of oil supply.
In my opinion, WTI could reclaim the previous levels of $76, $83 and $89, consequently. The expected stimulus from China’s Ministry of Finance and the November 6th FOMC rate cut could support the upward trend if they meet or exceed market expectations.
The recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report confirms a shift to the long positions:
• As of September 24th, total open interest (OI) of WTI futures was 2,242,432 contracts
• Managed Money held 210,469 long and 48,541 short, a 4.3-to-1 ratio
• Compared to the previous week, the long positions increased by 24,734, while the shorts decreased by 3,969 contracts; this shows a bullish view building up
For someone with a bullish view of crude oil, he could establish a long position in NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures ( GETTEX:MCL ). The contract has a notional value of 100 barrels. At 1/10 the size of benchmark WTI Crude Oil contracts, Micro WTI futures offer the same robust trading transparency and price discovery with smaller margin requirements. At Friday closing price of $68.63, each November contract (MCLX) is worth $6,863. CME Group requires an initial margin of $596 for each MCL contract, long or short.
Hypothetically, if WTI bounced back to $76.88, its previous high on August 5th, the price increase of $8.25 would produce a gain of $825 (=8.25x100) for a long position.
The risk of buying crude oil is that the follow-up government stimulus packages were less than market expectations, which could undermine the growth forecast. To hedge the downside risk, an experienced trader could consider the use of put options on WTI crude oil futures.
Happy Trading.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Intraday Bearish Confirmation
Update for WTI Crude Oil.
Earlier, I share a very bearish setup on a daily.
Analyzing the intraday time frames today, I spotted
a strong bearish confirmation on an hourly.
Retesting a recently broken horizontal resistance,
the price dropped and violated a support line of a rising wedge pattern.
It is an important sign of strength of the sellers.
With a high probability, the price will drop at least to 67.15 level.
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Fundamental factors have the main impact on the WTI trendTVC:USOIL ended up slightly higher last Friday but fell more than 3% for the week as markets gauged expectations for increased global supply and considered new stimulus measures from major countries in Asia, which import leading crude oil exporter.
- On one hand, OPEC+ plans to start increasing production in December, which has been particularly suppressive on oil prices and was the main negative factor for the oil market last week.
- On the other hand, the withdrawal of many stimulus policies by major powers, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further and the escalating conflict in the Middle East still provide some support for oil prices.
Central banks of major Asian countries cut reserve requirements and interest rates last Friday, and governments of major Asian countries are launching a final round of stimulus to boost growth. The economy returns to the target of about 5% this year.
Israel said it bombed Houthi rebel targets in Yemen on Sunday (September 29) and continued airstrikes in Lebanon, expanding its alliance with Iran in the region two days after killing the leader of Hezbollah. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah during the confrontation.
On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL Currently trading quite stable after recovering from the support level of 67.26USD. Note to readers in the previous issue. The recovery momentum is also being limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and the horizontal resistance level of 69.31USD.
However, looking at the overall technical picture, WTI crude oil is having more bearish conditions with the main trend from the price channel, pressure from EMA21 and weak recovery momentum when the RSI Strength Index turns down. price reduction signal.
In the near term, if WTI crude oil continues to be sold below the important technical level at 67.26USD it is likely to continue to decline more with a target level of 65.25USD. Even if WTI crude oil recovers further, it will still be limited by the EMA21, the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level and the upper edge of the price channel.
The bearish trend in WTI crude oil dominates the daily technical chart, and notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 67.26USD
Resistance: 68.74 – 69.31USD
Trade idea - USOIL LongBullish impulse / new HH: indication.
Inverse Head & Shoulders: Confirmation.
Clear support & resistance zone is there.
1H perspective: Corrective approach towards entry zone.
= Buy limit.
OIL Short - Don't Slip On Your Longs BoysHey everybody, so while obviously the media is all about the Israel conflict I think we are still far away from being at the bottom. We just wicked today, on a monday, the friday high, started to show some major rejection signs which gives me the green light for a short "experiment" to finally wick the low weekly and daily levels. Remember boys, the best trades appear when the masses got stop out, not the other way around.
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 67.14 which is a swing-low support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 65.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 72.15 which is a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil: 50% pullback is around 68.20 and we are at 68.18. I favor the bulls that they printed a higher low major trend reversal here and 67 will hold. The pattern on the 1h looks like market is forming a round bottom which could lead to a big cup & handle pattern. If they get above 69 on Monday, I do expect 71.5 quickly after an likely a hit of the bear trend line around 72.5. Below 66.8 bears are favored for retest of 65.
Quote from last week:
comment: Low effort comment last week. Deal with it. Bulls have formed a small pullback bull trend from the 64 low and bears selling below 67 are still trapped. Bears have not gotten one daily bar below the prior bar during the past 8 days. No reason to expect this to change all of a sudden.
comment: Bears finally came around last week and got a decent pullback to the 50% pullback from the recent bull leg. At 68.20 market is in total balance and I can’t be anything but neutral. I do think bulls are slightly favored and the 67 low could very well hold. Above 69 I favor the bulls, below 67 the bears.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 64-74
bull case: Bulls want this to be a higher low major trend reversal and 67 to hold. If they manage that, they can print up to 73 to test the bear trend line starting mid July. As of now, we are at the 50% pb and the pattern does not give you any confirmation. You have to wait for it or trade in the probability with a potentially higher reward if you take the long here. Bulls need to stay above 67 though.
Invalidation is below 67.
bear case: Bears printed decent bear bars Wednesday & Thursday and it’s reasonable to expect more sideways movement because they want to retest 65 or lower. Same argument for the bears as for the bulls, we are at the 50% pb and there is no confirmation for either side. Below 67 bulls could have their stops and would wait for 64/65 before longing this again.
Invalidation is above 69.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish near the 4h 20ema until it stops working. Take profits at new highs unless bulls show even bigger strength.
→ Last Sunday we traded 71 and now we are at 68.18. 4h ema buy worked on Monday but then it stopped on Wednesday. Meh outlook.
short term: Neutral. Bullish above 69 and bearish below 67.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Bears channel is the main pattern right now but bulls are trying to test the upper trend line. There we will see if the bear trend is has another leg down or we move sideways. There is an argument that the spike below 69 was a trap and we continue inside a range 69 - 75/77.
current swing trade: None
chart update: removed broken bull trend lines
61.69% Probability for Bullish USOIL TP!Key Fundamentals Supporting a Bullish Outlook:
- OPEC+ Production Cuts: OPEC+ has implemented production cuts to stabilize oil prices, which can lead to a tighter supply and potentially higher prices for crude oil.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical issues, particularly in oil-producing regions, can disrupt supply chains, leading to increased prices as markets react to potential shortages.
- Economic Recovery Signals: As global economies continue to recover from the pandemic, demand for oil is expected to rise, further supporting bullish sentiment in the market.
By combining a bullish bias with a probabilistic approach to trading, I aim to position myself advantageously in the market while managing risks effectively.
Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments below!
2W:
2H:
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
CRUDE OIL PULLBACK AHEAD|SHORT|
✅CRUDE OIL surged again to retest the resistance of 69.00$
But it is a strong key level
So I think that there is a high chance
That we will see a bearish pullback and a move down
SHORT🔥
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