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Usequities

Weekly Leading Indicator Panel warns...Reviewing the Weekly charts, especially for the leading indicators, it appears that there is a warning of downside risk imminent. SG10Y bond yield are about to break out. JNK TLT and TIP all have bearish engilfing that covers the previous gap up. Thing is, the coombined US equities chart is somewhat bullish, with a rough bearish harami at the bearish best indication. Even SOXL appears to be bullish somewhat... No action needed, but just an early warning given to set the boundaries yet again... looks like the Christmas Rally just fizzled out.
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
Weekly Leading Indicators: BEARISHManaged to streamline down to these couple of charts for a set of leading indicators. Simple trend analysis and techincals are being used here for Weekly charts and so weekly analysis is appropriate to set the stage for a top down view. First up (on the top right corner) is the Combined US equities chart that shows a strong marubozu the previous week (from elections outcome). However, the following week was not a confirmation, but instead casts doubt on the sustainability of the spike to rally on. Point being, the massive breakout is met with a Dark Cloud Cover that breaks back into the Decision Box (purple box) which was previously marked out for the consolidation range boundaries. Typically when a breakout is followed by a breakin, it tends to follow through to the other end... a break down from the box support. Yellow circle is where it should go through or bounce at. What gives on this is that the following Leading indicators are eluding to... SG10Y Govt Bond Yields The uncanny correlation of this to the US Equities Indexes is remarkable and have been a hallmark of my recent posts and analyses. Here we have a breakout of the trendline resistance. Means equity markets are going Bear. RED Flag High Yield Bonds ETF (JNK) JNK looks to break the uptrend trailstop line, with a lower high that now has a Dark Cloud Cover as well. AMBER Flag TIPS and TLT Both have broken uptrend trailstops and are downtrending with a recent low. These are well known market leading indicators. RED Flags Semiconductor ETF (SOXL) Noted, and personal favourite, SOXL is clearly bearish from simple candlestick patterns. RED Flag So, overall, we have Leads telling us it is BEARISH again. Heads up!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Combined US Equities Lousy Breakout means BreakdownThe combined US equities chart failed to push significantly and is consolidating. when it does this, it looks like it is rolling over to fall off a cliff. IF we look carefully, besides the weakening technical indicators, there is also weakening price action, with the second or third lower high in the hourly time frame. That said, the decision box needs to be broken out of, and then the critical support (red line). Once these give way, it would be too obvious and there should be a sizeable retracement to the previous support, now being the downside target.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Combined US Equities - D-Day +1on 31 July, heads up given about D-day. That was based simply of a few compelling technical factors observed. Outcome was that there was a blow out rally, followed by an awesome Dark Cloud Cover and then a confirmation bearish candle that gapped down and tanked the week to a low. The spike in volatility was just so awesome and it caught many off guard, unfortunately. Technical indicators were previously mentioned to be bearish already and now it is very evidently so. Projecting further using supports and TD Sequential, it is also evident that by breaking below the support that closes the gap too was so critical... it broke the TDST support as well. This means that the TD Sequential trend is now bearish, with an expected one bearish week to go. So all together... a significant technical breakdown. Some bounce expected, but week ahead looks bearish. Projected target marked (red ellipse). Take care!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Combined US Indexes shows imminent troublesThe week earlier saw the combined index chart log a double top, where last week started to break down. By midweek, the gap (from the previous rally after a breakout) closed. The week ended with a gap reopening. On Friday, this would normally signal a reversal and a bullish reopening of the gap, but it looks a lot less likely given that the MACD is clearly downtrending, as well as the VolDiv confirming bearishness in more ways than one... going below zero line, etc. So, for what it is worth, the reopening is likely to be a flash in the pan, and once it makes a lower low next week, it would really let it go - DOWN
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Election Year Jitters: How to Navigate the Volatile US Equity MaUS Presidential Elections and US Equities are a match made in heaven. History shows that market swings more up than down. This year, prepare for a wild ride full of twists. Sadly, former President Donald Trump was shot at a rally over the weekend. He survived and is safe. Investors are expected to shift into haven assets. Gold could test all-time highs. The Dollar, Yen and Bitcoin will rise. WHAT IS THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CYCLE THEORY? Yale Hirsch introduced this theory. It posits that stock markets are weakest in the year following Presidential elections. The presidential election impacts economic policies and consequently market sentiment. Theory suggests that US equities perform best during the third followed by the fourth year of a Presidential term. In 1967, Yale Hirsch (a market researcher) published the first edition of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. According to the book, the President typically indulges the special interest group who got him elected in the first two years after assuming the office. With the next election round the corner, the President shifts focus on shoring up the economy to get re-elected during the third and fourth year. Consequently, equities gain during the second half of the Presidential term. That's the theory, but does it hold true? The answer turns out to be an emphatic yes. S&P500 Index Performance since 1960 with election years highlighted BUT HOW ABOUT SECOND HALF OF THE ELECTION YEAR? With half of the election year behind us, crucially, how do markets perform during the second half of an election year? Over the last 6 decades, the S&P500 on average delivered positive returns in 13 of the 16 election years during the second half of the year. 2008 was a washout year for equities with global financial crisis crushing equities. The S&P500 returns for the first half of election year was 4.1% followed by 3.2% in the second half on average even after including 2008. S&P500 tends have positive bias in election years Excluding 2008, average S&P500 returns for the first half of election year was 4.9% followed by 5.4% in the second half. S&P500 positive bias during election years is even more pronounced when 2008 GFC abnormal returns are excluded PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE History has shown time and again that timing the market is futile. Using Hirsch’s theory as gospel can be dangerous. Presidential elections occur once only every four years. Even though the analysis above covers 6 decades, it only has 16 data points. By any measure, that's far too little to arrive at definitive conclusions. As any sensible statistician would tell you, even if two variables are correlated (election cycle and S&P500), it does not guarantee causation. WHAT CAN INVESTORS EXPECT DURING 2024 ELECTION YEAR? It is not just historical precedent that suggests upside in the next six months, market conditions also suggest equities could see further upside. 2024 has been a stunning year. Gen AI frenzy has fuelled powerful rally. It has been the strongest tailwind since the dot-com mania. Unlike the dot-gone era, companies are producing eye-popping revenues and profits that support the rally. The recession that never came has been a powerful tailwind that has helped equity markets soar to heights never seen before. Inflation has been easing. Labour markets are tightening. Expectations of rate cuts are rising fast. The next Fed meeting is scheduled on 31st July. Markets are pricing 93% chance of the Fed Fund rates remaining unchanged at the current 525-550 basis points (bps). The picture is starkly different for the Fed meeting on 18th September. Markets are pricing >90% chance of the Fed starting to cut the rates by 25bps based on CME FedWatch tool as of close of markets on 12th July 2024. Slowing economy and rising unemployment will trigger the Fed to commence its rate cutting cycle Citi analysts predict that the Fed will slash rates by 200 bps (2% in total) by the summer of 2025. 25bps of rate cuts in eight successive meetings, starting in September. A slowing economy and growing unemployment are cited as the basis for this aggressive rate cut cycle. RATE CUTS WILL PUT MARKETS ON TOP GEAR Two active wars. Extreme weather conditions. Shocks from elections across the globe. None of these have had any dampening effect on equities. Such is the euphoria. Rate cuts will put a turbo charged market on steroids. Investors out to be cautious to assess if rate cuts are already priced into equities given that S&P 500 is up >11% over last three months including 2.8% so far in July. It is essential to make risk mitigated moves in the second half of an election year. WHAT ALTERNATIVES DO INVESTORS HAVE? There are many alternatives. Three common possibilities are (a) Long Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures, (b) Long call options on Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures, and (c) Bullish put spread on Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures. Futures enable direct, liquid, and efficient access to the index. Long call enables investors to gain from rising S&P 500 and from volatility expansion. Bullish put spread allows the trader to harvest put options premium as the index rises. The bull put spread consists of one short put with a higher strike and one long put with a lower strike. Given the sharp run-up in the index and expected volatility, long calls are not viable. Risk reward ratios for a bullish put are not compelling. Hence, a hypothetical trade set up using futures. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP With equity markets in euphoria and rate cuts expected starting in September, US equities are poised to rally further. Historical precedent shows that 2H of election years tends to results in positive returns in the S&P 500. Investors can express this view using Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Index futures. Trade set up using Micro E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures expiring in Dec 2024 (MESZ2024) is summarised below: • Entry: 5650 • Target: 6030 • Stoploss: 5400 • Profit at target: USD 1,900 (6030 – 5650 = 380 index points; Profit = 380 points x USD 5/point = USD 1,900) • Loss at Stop: USD 1,250 (5400 – 5650 = 250 index points; Loss = 250 points x USD 5/point = USD 1,250) • Reward to Risk: 1.5x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MESZ2024Long
by mintdotfinance
Combined US indexes suggest a cotinued over-extensionThe Combined US indexes are clearly in bearish divergence, as previously described. However, it appears that there is a thin underlying technical and funding support to push this index(es) into the Fibonacci target over the next couple of weeks till the end of April. A trajectory of the expected retrace to run scenario is drawn in light yellow, to the upside target where the green ellipse is. Watch for breakdowns below supports and no recovery. Otherwise, this looks unbelievable, but it is a sucker's rally really. Tread and trade with caution...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Harvesting Risk Adjusted Gains in Bullish US Equity Markets Consistently harvesting positive gains is difficult. In markets where risks remain rife, that task gets harder. That’s where tactical hedging during periods of elevated risk help improve risk adjusted returns. Analyst forecasts are for US equity performance to be neutral to bullish in 2024. Some believe that returns are likely to be dragged lower given the massive run-up in the final two months of 2023. Occurrence of a recession in 2024 could result in a sharp correction. Yet, a successful soft-landing combined with rate cuts by the Fed may drive markets even higher. Uncertainty also persists over the upcoming US election. Election years generate an average of +7.3% returns over the last sixteen US elections. However, they also drive volatility. Uncertainty is the only certainty for 2024. As seasoned investors and portfolio managers, forecasting is a fool’s errand. On any given day, time in the market is always better than timing the market. ETFs could be a cost-effective way to gain exposure to the S&P 500 index, and they distribute dividends as well. Downside risks can be managed using CME’s short-dated equity index options around key economic events while maintaining a bullish stance on S&P 500. US EQUITIES TO RALLY IN 2024 BUT NOT BY MUCH ACCORDING TO ANALYSTS Most analysts are bullish on the S&P 500. Given a turbo charged finish in 2023, optimism remains muted on further upside gains as uncertainty persists. Source – Business Insider The colossal run-up in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 over November and December has raised concerns of the market running ahead of itself on over expectations. The S&P 500 is 13.5% higher since 1/Nov while Nasdaq-100 has rallied 14.7%. Yardeni Research, Oppenheimer, and Goldman remain bullish while JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley expect the benchmark index to give away some of the run-up during November and December due to high valuations, rising geo-political risks, and recession. Oppenheimer believes market views of rate cuts in the first half of the year may be too optimistic. If Fed disappoints on rate timing and size of rate cuts, S&P 500 could witness drawdowns. 2023: A YEAR IN REVIEW While inflation was stubborn all year, so was economic growth. US GDP growth in 2023 far surpassed expectations. Back in March, the Fed anticipated GDP growth between -0.2% to 1.3% in 2023. Come December, the Fed now anticipated GDP growth of 2.5% to 2.7%. Inflation cooled much faster. Fed’s downward revision of inflation expectations points to peak interest rates. Amid the dovish outlook at its December meeting, markets rallied sharply in anticipation of accommodative monetary policy in 2024. ANALYST MISSED 2023 S&P 500 TARGETS BY A SIGNIFICANT MARGIN The final close of the S&P 500 was sharply higher than the most bullish forecasts from major banks at the start of 2023. The index was trading in the upper part of the forecast range for most of 2023 and squarely within the forecast range by HSBC, Goldman, and Citi until June. Optimism of soft landing & on rising rate expectations drove the index well above the forecasts. ELECTION YEAR IN THE US USUALLY DELIVERS POSITIVE RETURNS BUT UNCERTAINTY A RISK 2024 is an election year in the US. Election years on average deliver positive returns of +7.3% since 1960. Election years since 1960 have delivered positive returns 81.3% of the time compared to 68.8% for non-election years. The results diverge for election years in which Democrats are elected (+5.6% returns) compared to Republicans (+8.9% returns). Historical volatility during election years has been higher (18.6%) compared to non-election years (17.8%). However, the trading range during election years was marginally narrower (29.6% from low to high) compared to non-election years (29.9% from low to high). Election years are generally viewed positively by markets but also tend to underperform relative to non-election years. TIME IN THE MARKET TRUMPS TIMING THE MARKET “Time in the market” has historically trumped “timing the market”. Staying invested for longer increases the likelihood of positive returns. Timing is hard, doing so consistently is even harder. Source - Putnam Investment Putnam Investments research shows that staying fully invested in the S&P 500 between 2008 to 2023 would deliver strong annualized returns of 10.6%. However, missing the 10 best days of the index during those 15 years would lead to annualized returns just half of that. Instead of actively managing allocation towards equity indices in a portfolio, investors can opt to hold low-fee index fund ETFs such as SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) or iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), which offers: • Low capital requirements relative to replicating index returns • Decent dividend yield: SPY offers 1.39% dividend yield in 2023 while IVV delivered 1.44% • Low expense ratios: SPY expense ratio is mere 0.09% while IVV charges a meagre 0.03% To protect against drawdowns, investors can deploy long put positions on short dated Micro E-Mini S&P 500 (MES) options. Long puts on weekly MES options can protect against downside risk with relatively low premium. This makes them effective in managing event-driven risk. KEY EVENTS CALENDAR 2024 Mint previously covered event-driven volatility within oil markets. Like oil, event driven volatility can cause outsized moves in equities too. For instance, in November upon the CPI release that showed inflation cooling, S&P 500 jumped 1.9%. Similarly, events can cause downside moves as well. In September, after a hawkish FOMC meeting, the index tanked 1.6%. FOMC meetings and economic releases during 2024 could result in sharp moves in US equity markets, especially if they diverge from market expectations. Investors can trade the economic calendar by deploying short-dated options around these events. CME offers weekly micro S&P 500 options for each day of the week. For the FOMC meeting outcome, which is released every Wednesday, the Wednesday or Thursday weekly options can be utilized. Similarly, CPI releases are typically on Tuesday-Thursday. Nonfarm payrolls are released on the first Friday of each month. Put option premiums is a cost that can chip away at returns. Long-dated coverage during period of muted risk can result in wasted premiums. Instead, investors can focus their short-term hedges around the pivotal economic releases such as FOMC meetings to limit drawdowns. ESTABLISHING TACTICAL HEDGES AROUND KEY EVENT RISKS To maximize gains from long position in S&P 500 index funds, investors can tactically deploy short-dated CME Options on Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (“Micro S&P Options”) around key economic releases as well as FOMC meetings. Micro S&P Options offer low cost in premium and delivers downside protection from index drawdowns. CME Group offers short-dated options on Micro E-Mini S&P 500 futures with expiries on Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Each weekly contract offers exposure to 1 MES futures contract or 5-times the index value. In the lead up to key events, a portfolio manager will need to assess the notional value of their ETFs holdings and match it against the required number of options. As an illustration, considering a long position in SPY on 2/Jan at an entry of USD 475.29; each SPY share offers exposure to 1/10th of the index value. To match notional value of the long ETF leg with the put options, 50 shares of SPY are required. Based on data as of close of markets on 29/Dec/2023, weekly MES options points to an IV of 11% for ATM strikes. In case investors opt to acquire the weekly option a week prior to the economic release (7 days-to-expiry), the option would cost ~USD 150 (30 x 5) equating to 0.6% of the notional value. If the index drops more than 0.6%, investors are protected from downside on their long ETF leg. However, where the decline is smaller than 0.6% or index rises following the release, cost of protection remains a cost to investor. ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE As a hypothetical example, assume that the highest S&P 500 target for 2024 (Yardeni’s USD 5,400) is reached by the end of the year. The path to the target is likely to vary with ups and downs. Assuming that 50 shares of SPY are acquired each month while implementing tactical hedges around FOMC meetings. Market performance and FOMC meeting performance is assumed to be randomly distributed based on past market performance. The following table shows the net profit this strategy would generate through 2024 with and without the tactical hedges. In the above example, the options hedges yield a net profit due to large hypothetical downside moves in July and September. In case the downside moves do not occur, the options legs would expire worthless and yield a net loss. IN CONCLUSION Signal of a Fed Pivot points to a bullish US equity market in 2024. However, raft of risks remains in sight across the horizon. Prudent investors know well that investment gains are harvested by ensuring time in the market rather than timing the market. However, prudence also requires that exposures be astutely managed using tactical hedges that optimizes benefits versus costs of securing downside protection. Here’s wishing all portfolio managers long returns and short risk going into 2024. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SP:SPXLong
by mintdotfinance
I SPY with my little eye : a RARE SPY candlestick patternGood day! This is an unusual highlight, but I am so excited, and you would read on to find out why... Previously outlined, on 3 August, I played the devil's advocate and looked at a counter trend scenario. In this scenario, the SPY was still below the weekly 55EMA, and could fail to break above, then break down much further. Thing is, the weekly SPY chart is bullish as ever, and it looked possible but somewhat remote. At the beginning of the week, there appeared to be be some stalling and indecision on the SPY daily chart (yellow circle) and, over the last two days, with less than terrible data as expected, the SPY gapped up not once but twice. On Wednesday, the gap up was huge (see left 1H chart), and the day ended with what looked like a Gap and Run . This was followed by another gap up on Thursday, albeit a smaller gap. This was the first remote indication that the rocket to the the moon was about to sputter. As the day wore on, the SPY closed the gap... and very precisely closed the gap, in what is commonly known as Fading the Gap , or what I would prefer to call it - a Gap and Close . Technical indicators on the hourly SPY chart clearly shows a sputtering, perhaps expected from such a sharp rise over the last two days. So, in a Gap and Close, two common outcomes are either, a bullish reopening of the gap by ensuing price action or a bearish confirmation of the gap to remain closed. Here is the more interesting part: On the daily chart, the outcome is a rare candlestick pattern formed, called the Meeting Lines, and in this case, qualifies as a Bearish Meeting Line candlestick pattern , especially when it closed the gap precisely to meet at 419.99, at the apparent top of an uptrend. This is a presumed bearish reversal pattern, and requires a confirmation candle on Friday... yes, Friday, the end of the seemingly bullish week, the last day to determine the week's candle. Daily technical indicators are still territorially bullish but some waning signs are observed with the RPM crossing down, and a short term bearish divergence on the MACD. Furthermore, the volume (8MA, purple line) did not significantly increase nor trend up in support since mid-July. So... Friday is the most indicative day. Is the SPY going to break down (into the earlier gap range, below red support line) or find legs to bounce back and continue the bullish rally? I would be be very cautious , given the above. What do you think... and why? PS. Leading indicators: JNK has a long legged doji, indicating indecision; TLT & TIP appear to have reversed.
AMEX:SPY
by Auguraltrader
11
dow jones (us30) will %45 drop if...hello guys! us30 there is in a long term ascending channel for sure... but let look last recession closer: what was conditions of last recession : 1- break down last lower low 2- fake out last lower low 3- before starting a downward movement break ma(200) 4- last lower low break ma(200) too 5- after break down drop until %45 On the other hand, what are the current conditions: 1- last lower low break ma(200) 2- price is near of ma(200) so we are waiting for a break down of ma(200)... so, we get confirmation after ma(200) break down then we can get a lot of short position for indices and us shares: let's look at us interest rate and United States Inflation Rate charts again! i think everything is vivide in chart. what is your opinion about us30? If you agree with my analysis or you are happy, please hit the "like" button and "follow"!
VELOCITY:US30Short
by melikatrader94
11
Bear Market is Far from OverCME_MINI:ES1! In the past six months, the S&P 500 has fallen from an all-time high of 4,818.62 to a fresh 52-week low of 3,636.82, down 1,181.8 points, or -24.5%. Following a brutal week, the U.S. stock market rose on Tuesday, as investors weighed the Fed rate hikes amid rising fears of a recession. The Dow rose 2.15%. The S&P popped 2.45%, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.51% at market close. Has the stock market correction ended? Let’s look at a 5-year chart. The previous peak of S&P 500 was 3,383 on February 10, 2020. It hit bottom on March 23 at 2,177, down 35.6%. Since then, the S&P has a great run for nearly two years, up 121%, with very little hiccup along the way. The new high was 40% above the pre-pandemic high. After recent steep fall, the S&P is still 400 points above the pre-COVID peak, which, in my view, is our first support line. If recession fear materializes into a real one, the post-COVID dip will become the second support. I believe that the bear market is far from over. My reasoning bogs down into two essential questions: 1. Will Government policies be effective in controlling the runaway inflation? 2. Will U.S. economic growth be sustainable at current high price level? On March 16, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). A second hike followed on May 4, for 50 bps. On June 15, a big 75-bps move upped the Fed Fund Rate to 1.50%-1.75%. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation continues to rise. In May, the official Consumer Price Index rose 8.6% year-over-year. The core CPI (all items less food and energy) was also at a record high of 6.0%. While aggressive Fed tightening could reduce the excess money supply, it could not affect the record gas price, nor the supply chain bottleneck from China. President Biden will try to convince the Saudis to increase oil production during his visit. However, we need to understand it is the best interest of OPEC to maximize oil revenue. High oil price is good for them as long as it does not cause demand to decline. Besides, if Biden can’t control his own bike, do you really expect him to get OPEC to fall in line behind us? Removing the Trump era tariff could bring some relief to U.S. consumers. However, the extent of imported goods covered by tariff reductions remains unclear. From policy discussion to actual implementation, it would take months before we see price drops on store shelves. In a nutshell, my answer is NO for the first question. As to the second question, even if the Fed succeeds in bringing down the inflation, will the U.S economy sustain its growth momentum? Take the $5 gas price for instance. For an average family with two cars, the consumption of 100 gallons a month is budgeted at $500, and it is $200 more than when gas was $3/gallon. Record gas price has already resulted in less driving and reduced trips to grocery stores and supermarkets. A major impact of Fed rate hikes is higher mortgage payments for millions of homeowners. For a family with a $400,000 house and $300,000 mortgage, a 6.5%, 30-year-fixed loan will require $1,900 interest payment per month. This is $380 more than when the mortgage rate was 4.5%. High energy and mortgage costs trickle down to every corner of American life. Even if inflation is tamed, at current price level, everything is too costly for the economy to function properly. We need to have deflation, starting with energy and housing, to avoid a recession. With headwinds to the economy and massive overhang over the stock market, I’m not optimistic for the near-term U.S. economic outlook. A short position in CME E-Mini S&P 500 futures is a way to express this bearish view. The December (ESZ2) contract may be a good one, considering both liquidity factor and time to allow major market-moving events to play out. At 3,788.00, each contract has a notional value of $189,400 ($50 times index value). CME requires an initial margin of $10,500. Futures contract is marked to market daily. For a short position, a decline of 1 index point will result in $50 gain in your account balance because of the $50 multiplier. Likewise, an increase of 1 index point means a $50 reduction in your account. If you don’t want to deal with the daily profit and loss accounting, consider a Long Put Option on the same E-Mini S&P futures contract. For example, the out-of-the-money 3685-strike (100 points below market) is currently quoted at $9.00. To buy an option requires $450, again because of the contract multiplier of 50. When is the good time to place the order? The next market rebound. Put premium generally gets cheaper following a price rise in the underlying futures. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
7
Incoming months for S&P500A mid-year check of the S&P500 futures ES1! show an uncanny resemblance to the beginning of 2008. This has been reiterated by many already over the recent months, and it appears to continue as outlined by others too. In the monthly log chart, there is an eerie resemblance that might bring the S&P500 to 2600-2800 levels, if by a similar magnitude to 2008-2009. Market conditions are different, but even on a longer term monthly chart, you see the uncanny comparison. Do not know what to make out of this, but on a probability basis, only two major outcomes... First, is that it would follow similarly, hence 2600-2800 becomes a reality. Second, it would break the pattern, and this would take something rather extraordinary to trigger it. Either way, in the coming months, we can be expecting a single or a series of extraordinary events that would put the above two outcome scenarios in play... watch for it!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
USEQUITIES potential for a pullback! | 29th March 2022Prices are approaching a pivot. We see the potential for a pullback from our sell entry at 3601.46 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our Take Profit at 3502.79 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Divergence is spotted on RSI, further supporting our bearish bias. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FX:USEQUITIESShort
by Rockqet
USEQUITIES potential for pullback! 28th March 2022Prices are at a pivot. We see the potential for a short entry at 3584 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our Take Profit at 3505.88 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is showing bearish divergence. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FX:USEQUITIESShort
by Rockqet
USEQUITIES potential for a pullback | 23rd March 2022Prices are experiencing a squeeze at our pivot. We see the potential for a short pullback from our sell entry at 3569.91. We see the potential for a pullback from our sell entry at 3543.36 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is at levels where dips previously occurred. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FX:USEQUITIESShort
by Rockqet
USEQUITIES potential for a pullback | 22th March 2022Prices are consolidating in a potential double top. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 3533.57 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Projection towards our Take Profit at 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement. RSI is portraying divergence, further supporting our bearish bias. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FX:USEQUITIESShort
by Rockqet
1
USEQUITIES potential for pullback! | 21st March 2022Prices have recently broken out of our descending trendline resistance and are on bullish momentum. We see the potential for bearish dip from our sell entry at 3539.23 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our Take Profit at 3468.59 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FX:USEQUITIESShort
by Rockqet
USEQUITIES on bearish momentum! | 3rd March 2022Prices are on bearish momentum. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 3487.54 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 3389.08 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement . Our bearish bias is further supported by RSI being on bearish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FX:USEQUITIESShort
by FXCM