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Usdzarlong

USD/ZAR Long Idea - Possible TeacupPlease refer to the linked idea below, which has so far played out well. We now see in addition to this linked trade, a possible teacup. We see price retraced to the 50% key fib level before making an impulsive move to the upside. I am watching for breakout from the handle before considering a buy position to the next key level as noted. Fundamentally, Moody's is set to release it's credit rating of South Africa this Friday, 4/29/19. If the credit rating is downgraded we could see further deterioration of the rand. This idea is for educational and demonstration purposes. Trade at your own risk. Please also refer to the linked trade idea below. Please like and comment.
Long
by mrsceleste
USD/ZAR Long Term - Possible Golden CrossSee trade idea below with analysis and comments. We saw that price bounced off the 61.8% fib level, and took off on a bull run. It retraced very recently to the 50% fib level and appears to be taking off again. We can look at the daily moving averages (50 and 200) and see that the moving averages are crossing, possibly to the upside. This would be a potential Golden Cross. Given the economic climate I think we have more room for this pair to move to the upside ON A LONG TERM BASIS, reaching previous highs, especially as we get closer to the May elections. We will see pullbacks, but long term I believe we have more room to the upside. This idea is for demonstration and educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk. Please like and offer comments. Please also see my previous analysis, linked below. One analysis is short term, and the other is long term. Again, I believe we will see movement to the downside, as pullbacks but overall, I would expect to see much more movement to the upside.
Long
by mrsceleste
USDZAR - All Eyes on The May Election!Please see my related post linked below as you proceed with this analysis. Recently, from a fundamentals standpoint, the state of the economy at South Africa has recently come into question ahead of May's election. Today, a severe power cut (Escom) has been put in place, which has added more uncertainty to the woes of the already troubled rand. Three things to note: 1. Price has respected trendline (in red) on now three points. 2. Watch for how price responds to the 200 MA. It is currently kissing the 200MA. If we see a bull run through, I anticipate more bullish movement. 3. Price respected a key ZONE 61.8% fib level from higher time frame, and can continue to be contained within what may be an ascending channel. Keep watch on fundamentals. As we near elections we could see more instability with this pair. This analysis is for education and demonstration purposes. Trade at your own risk.
Long
by mrsceleste
THE USDZAR LONGER TERM POSSIBILITYAs I study pairs I like to look at all possibilities in the market and look at confluences in the market for probably trade set ups. As we know, as retail traders, we don't move the markets. We simply go along for the ride. We can study market structure, price action and key levels to formulate possible ideas. Given this, I will say that this idea is for demonstration and study purposes only. It does not constitute a signal, but simply an idea to study. A few key points I would like to point out: 1. On this chart we see a very nice trendline, which has served as both dynamic support (since prior to 2014 to 2017). 2. We see price broke through the trendline, retested the trendline, and served as dynamic resistance (two touches). 3. We can draw a parallel trendline and use the Fibonacci tool to see the golden ratio of 61.8% is an area of confluence, and could possibly serve as a point for price to make a bull run to higher prices. 4. If this is followed, price would be contained within an ascending parallel channel. What I will be doing is watching price action to study how price responds to key levels in the market. We must always watch price action and be ready to analyze previous perspectives against what price is doing. Traders should never get caught up on what we want price to do, but we must watch what it IS doing. Please like and follow this trade for updates. You will also see that I have posted other trade ideas for this pair with updates as well, noting my observations as time has passed. If you have ideas about this analysis, please also share them in the comments as well.
Long
by mrsceleste
1
USDZAR going up Taking into we are reaching the lowest price since August 2018 I expect a move to go back from current 13.60 to at least 13.85 in a very conservative perspective or even as high as 14.40 as it did in November. There are no significant fundamentals to explain this decrease and surely those 13.55 will act as a huge support in case it continue going down. Stop Lopss will be around 13.53 just in case it decide to break and go to rates we haven´t seen for more than 6 months back to 13.30
Long
by awunkhaus
USD/LONG TRADE IDEAWe see price bounced so nicely off the 50% fib level from the higher time frame with an impulsive move. By paying attention to the trendline and in accordance with the fib extension, I would watch for price to reach 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fib level, which would again respect the trendline as noted. In terms of fundamentals, the South African Reserve Bank defended its mandate of price stability on today and held rates. The rand weakened a bit because of this action. It's been shown historically, that attempts to alter the central bank’s mandate have caused the rand to weaken. Key to watch in 2019 is economic growth, which has for now been revised down. We could see rate hikes towards the middle of 2019. I always say understand fundamentals, but pay attention to technicals. Watch price action and trade at your own risk. This is not a signal but for demonstration purposes and educational purposes only.
Long
by mrsceleste
USDZAR approaching resistance, potential drop! USDZAR is approaching our first resistance at 6.8172 (horizontal pullback resistance, 50%, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 6.600 (horizontal swing low support, 100% Fibonacci extension). Stochastic (34,5,3) is also approaching our resistance and we might see a corresponding drop in price should it react off this level.
Short
by FlowState
1
USDZAR approaching support, potential bounce! USDZAR is approaching our first support at 13.60 (100% Fibonacci extension, 50%, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal pullback support, Descending channel support) where a strong bounce might occur above this level pushing price up to our major resistance at 13.97 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal overlap resistance). Stochastic (55,5,3) is also approaching our support and we can see a bullish divergence where we might see a corresponding bounce in price.
Long
by FlowState
1