The gold bears prosecute their case.Well the new channel points back down to test the old uptrend. Long-term commodity channel that was from 2012 shows the Covid/Putin excursions that were responsible for excessive QE and government expenditures for war on whatever. WAR is such an overused concept. Anyway the bear channel, should it hold, needs to first get 1724 out of the way. 1650 would complete the case. This is largely a USDX issue.
Other currency pairs are not bearish yet. The combination of maximizing currency strength with the backdrop of prior overprinting (MMT) will be resolved here. Guns and butter are currency strength vs tax receipts. The major trend is up but the geopolitics of the moment and obvious currency abuse/debasement are at issue. My thought would be an outcome to the downside at the intersection 1650 if the shorts have the stomach for it and if the EURO, Yen, Pound stay soft to absorb inflation for the US. This monetary policy will grind equities further which may attract buyers. Failing that, we all get some cheap gold in the 1500s. 1450 is possible, but not likely unless the currency war gets out of hand. That would crush stocks especially resource stocks.
See the two gold charts done in the past below.
Usdx
USD Index versus Gold and Silver in EUR 2008-2011Most of the times, when USDX goes up, Gold and Silver go down. However, there are time periods in which USDX goes down along with gold and silver. Or times when USDX goes down and gold and silver go down. Such bad market times for gold and silver happen, however these tend to be somewhat short-lived. For longer periods of time, gold and silver tend to go up strongly especially when USDX goes down. It feels like we are in July-October 2008 all over again as USDX is up while gold and silver down. A year-long upward trend may be in the making shortly thus representing buying times now. When this happens, gold starts to move up first with silver lagging behind to find a bottom while USDX consolidates at high level to eventually drop
USDX BULLISH PATTERNUSD remains one of the stronger currencies in this period of uncertainty in the FX markets. The US Dollar Index, that had reached a two-decades high earlier this month, has broken the resistance of its Falling Wedge pattern on the 4H graph and it is returning to its upper trend.
If this trend continues, the Dollar Index might try to test again the level of 105. Otherwise it might return within the Falling Wedge pattern and test the support at 103.40
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USDX Daily TA Cautiously BullishUSDX Daily cautiously bullish. *Equities are down, cryptos are down, commodities are down (yes Gold included), real estate/housing market down, inflation up and the US dollar (as well as Russian ruble)... up. The Fed is expected to announce anywhere from a 50bp-100bp rate hike this Wednesday if they want to be in line with their promise to go "beyond neutral" to ring in still growing inflation; 50bp would likely assuage markets in the short term and stall the dollar, whereas 75bp+ would likely send markets lower and keep pushing up the dollar.* Recommended ratio: 90% USDX, 10% cash. Price is currently in Discovery as it is currently printing a new ATH at $105.05 amidst a big push back into treasuries (10y/30y). Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to favor buyers for a fourth consecutive session if it can close in the green in today's session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $101.36, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently breaking above 63.78 and is trending up at 68.60 as it fast approaches overbought territory. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently on the verge of testing max top (where it can potentially coast in the bullish "autobahn zone" for a while). MACD remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 0.39, the next resistance is at 0.46; if it blows past 0.46, it will likely test the uptrend line from August 2020 at around 0.80 resistance. ADX is currently trending up at 23 as Price continues to rise, this is mildly bullish and becomes very bullish if it can maintain this same correlation above 25. If Price is able to continue in its Discovery, the next psychological level to watch for is $110. However, if Price retreats from here then it will likely test $103.77 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $103.77.
USDX retrace below 100 before next impulse higher- Looking for temporary Dollar weakness in the form of a retrace to below 100.
- Followed by next impulse leg up on negative GDP-news
- Fundamentally a US recession is looming
- US slump will translate to a cooling world-economy
- This will trigger risk off and with it Dollar strength
- Volume profile shows strength in upmove
- After the high volume is falling on the way down
- In short: drop below 100 followed by a push above 106
U.S. Dollar : Highest Level in 19 YearsAt this moment, the U.S. Dollar Index reached its highest level in 19 years ...
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👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 04.28.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
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US Dollar Index Fade Trade FOMC USD is rallying pre the big show on hawkish FED bets ahead of the FOMC meeting May 4th. Bond market speculators have aggressively priced in multiple FED rate hikes in the coming 12 months and its going to be very hard for the FOMC to be as hawkish as the market.
The 2017 highs were seen just at the start of US rate hike cycle as well and very often we overshoot.
So given the positioning in the market ahead of this meeting and the key resistance a reversal after the meeting is both needed technically and makes sense from trading game point of view.
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U.S. Dollar Index Weekly TA : 04.27.22As you can see, the next target of the dollar index has been reached and is now trading in the 103 range. Note that this range is the highest level in the last 5 years and we have to see if the high inflation in the United States can cause the break of this 5-year resistance level or not ...
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⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 04.27.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
Potential crash of BTC/USDAs you can see, my two charts are USDX and BTCUSD. Using the monthly timeframe we can see a resistance level on USDX which has been respected twice. Price is coming up to this zone very soon, and on HTF, USDX is overbought using Stochastic RSI .
BTCUSD has been respecting this upwards trend line since around July 2020, becoming more volatile in recent years. As we can see, both are coming to test their respective zones in the near future. Bulls will be looking for the BOS with US Index and for BTCUSD to respect the trend. Bears will be looking for US Index to respect resistance, and for BTCUSD to push down.
What we saw in 2020, on the second rejection of support, was a small crash of around $7000 dollars in BTC price (highlighted in red). Now the market has a larger volume, and higher volatility, should USDX respect resistance, we could see a crash in BTC.
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Read if you want to survive in this jungle !!Fellas, look at the all the ideas being shared on TW these days. With every pip the chart goes up people share ideas ordering you to buy 1000 pips :))) With every pip the chart retracing, fools share ideas and ordering you to sell expecting 1000 pips dump.!!!
If you want to survive this wild jungle use your brain and trade based on your own setup or at least avoid accepting every dumb idea you see. Peace fellas !