Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 106.52
1st Support: 105.44
1st Resistance: 107.57
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DJ FXCM Index
XAU USD - current sells in play, looking for buying ops
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily)
Orange = Daily
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Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual.
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DXY: High-Probability Retracement SetupThe DXY has been forming higher highs, signaling bullish momentum. Currently, the market appears to be making a short-term retracement into a daily bullish order block (OB) at 105.174, which aligns with a high-probability setup, further supported by a fair value gap (FVG) just above it.
Confirmation of this retracement transitioning into expansion will occur if a daily candle taps into the OB and closes above the PD array. If this scenario unfolds, the next target is the buy-side liquidity (BSL) at 108.060, marking a significant level for potential upside momentum.
Keep an eye on the daily closures for validation, and always align entries with confluences for optimal risk management.
USD/JPY - H4 - Channel Breakout The USD/JPY pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel Breakout pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Days.
USDJPY
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 154.00, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 151.30
2nd Support – 149.82
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TradeCityPro | NZDUSD : Will the Range Break Soon?👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro!
In this analysis, I will review the NZDUSD forex pair for you. The analysis is conducted on the daily timeframe.
📦 This pair has been ranging within a box between 0.57987 and 0.63543 for nearly two years. As a result, indicators like moving averages are not used in this analysis, as they do not provide reliable data in a ranging market.
🔽 Currently, the price has reached the bottom of the box, and there is a possibility of breaking it to the downside. If the 0.57987 support is broken and the price stabilizes below this level, bearish momentum will enter the market, increasing the likelihood of the price reaching the next support at 0.5541.
📈 However, if the price manages to climb above the 0.58942 level and forms a new high and low above this area, the bearish scenario will be temporarily invalidated, and the price will likely move towards testing the 0.60619 and 0.61962 resistances and even the top of the box.
✨ On the other hand, the RSI is near the 30 level. If it enters the oversold zone, the likelihood of breaking the 0.57987 support increases. Conversely, if the RSI reaches the 50 level or higher, bullish momentum will enter the market.
🔑 In case of a trend reversal and a breakout above the top of the box, the next resistance will be at 0.65069.
📝 Final Thoughts
This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice.
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GBP/USD - H1 - Broadening Wedge The GBP/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent formation of well-defined Broadening Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.2532, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2442
2nd Support – 1.2375
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EURUSD Today's 1D Death Cross turning into a 3 month rally!The EURUSD pair is having a strong bullish reversal after marginally breaking on Friday below the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Down. The 1W RSI got marginally oversold (below 30.00), which is a technical buy level.
So far it is similar to the October 03 2023 bottom, which was formed on a 1D Death Cross, exactly the kind of pattern that is being completed today! That bottom initiated a strong 3-month rally that hit the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level respectively. Our long-term Target is 1.08765 (Fib 0.618).
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Could the price bounce from here?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 106.35
1st Support: 105.22
1st Resistance: 108.55
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
How Will a Strong Dollar Impact Emerging Forex Pairs?Persistent US dollar strength is poised to pose significant challenges for emerging market (EM) bonds and forex. As the greenback continues its upward trajectory, investors are advised to exercise caution and consider potential risks.
Why a Strong Dollar Matters for Emerging Markets
A stronger dollar generally makes it more expensive for emerging market countries to service their dollar-denominated debt. They need to exchange their local currency for US dollars to make payments. When the dollar appreciates, it requires more of their local currency to acquire the necessary amount of dollars.
Furthermore, a strong dollar can deter foreign investment in emerging markets. Investors may prefer to invest in US assets, which are perceived as safer and more stable. This can lead to capital flight from emerging markets, putting pressure on their currencies and economies.
Potential Risks for Emerging Market Bonds and Forex
Investors in emerging market bonds should be aware of the following risks:
1. Currency Risk: A weaker local currency can erode the value of bond investments. As the dollar strengthens, emerging market currencies may depreciate, reducing the value of bond holdings when converted back to the investor's home currency.
2. Interest Rate Risk: Rising interest rates in the US can lead to higher borrowing costs for emerging market countries. This can increase their debt burden and make it more difficult to service their debt obligations.
3. Default Risk: In extreme cases, a strong dollar and rising interest rates can push emerging market countries to the brink of default. This can result in significant losses for bondholders.
How to Mitigate Risks
While the risks associated with emerging market bonds are significant, investors can take steps to mitigate them:
1. Diversification: Diversifying investments across different emerging markets can help reduce exposure to specific country risks.
2. Currency Hedging: Investors can use currency hedging strategies to protect themselves from currency fluctuations.
3. Credit Rating Analysis: Carefully analyzing the creditworthiness of issuers can help identify bonds with lower default risk.
4. Consult with Financial Advisors: Seeking advice from experienced financial advisors can provide valuable insights and help develop a suitable investment strategy.
Conclusion
The persistent strength of the US dollar poses a significant threat to emerging market bonds. Investors should be mindful of the risks associated with these investments and take appropriate measures to protect their portfolios. By diversifying, hedging, and conducting thorough due diligence, investors can navigate the challenges posed by a strong dollar and potentially reap the rewards of emerging market growth.
It is important to note that this article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.2
EURUSD: Detailed Support & Resistance Analysis 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis
and important support & resistance levels/zones on EURUSD for next week.
Support 1: 1.030 - 1.033 area
Support 2: 1.016 - 1.024 area
Support 3: 1.008 - 1.009 area
Support 4: 0.994 - 0.997 area
Support 5: 0.962 - 0.975 area
Support 6: 0.953 - 0.960 area
Resistance 1: 1.045 - 1.053 area
Resistance 2: 1.060 - 1.062 area
Resistance 3: 1.066 - 1.069 area
Resistance 4: 1.094 - 1.094 area
Resistance 5: 1.099 - 1.101 area
Resistance 6: 1.120 - 1.128 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 25-28th: USD INDEX Is Still Bullish!November 25 -28th
The DXY is still showing strength, but can pull back at any time. After breaching a Swing High, a pullback is naturally expected. But until it gives a bearish BOS, I am still buying the USD.
Don't be too quick to start selling!
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
AUDUSD: Time to turn bullish again.AUDUSD is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.008, MACD = -0.006, ADX = 21.063) as it has been declining since the September 30th High. Technically though it is time to turn bullish again as not only has the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross, but the double bottom on the 1D RSI is identical to the February 13th 2024 Low. The resulting rebound reached the 0.5 Fibonacci level before a rejection. Consequently, we are turning bullish here, aiming for the current 0.5 Fib (TP = 0.66900).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Why I was surprised some called for a cooling/correction of USD$
Daily & Weekly Below
Late last week and earlier this week, some traders & price predictors were giving their big 'scoop' about the Dollar correcting going into the start of this week. I didn't really buy it and here is why.
I knew that there was no real recent resistance for USDX at these current levels. In fact, absolutely nothing for 12 months.
I could also see that by late last week the Dollar had simply pulled back from its recent high at around 107.03 and yes even got over a whole number before pulling back and closing a little lower on 14 November. By last Friday 1 week ago the USDX (dollar index) was a mere 0.3% below 107.03. Also, look at the combined volume for last week and for that matter this week. Why and how would any instrument recede in price after all that weekly volume?
Whenever, I make a call on the USDX, I am acutely aware of its wide influencing price behaviour on currency pairs, gold price and even Crypto and other commodities.
Making calls on the dollar should be reserved for those who properly pull the chart apart and study the price-action with leading-indicators, not some sort of on the run call like "the dollar looks like selling, its a bit overbought". Theres no such thing as over bought when an instrument is rallying.
I said the USD was BREAKING OUT back when it was around 100 prior to Gold's breakout. I had concerns over RSI Monthly Oversold levels and I could see historically when this had happened to the Dollar (on a USDX chart with monthly RSI levels plotted) that this occurrence had preceded a major breakout in the USD$. Multiple times at different periods going back only several years.
Perhaps, next time give us your reasons why the USD is correcting and taking a break, that we can see how sound your technical analysis trading methods might be.
Don't do something for example Bloomberg recommends in a headline, I am not picking on Bloomberg but the entire trading news, who really don't have a clue and are chase headlines.
USD/JPY – Key Green Zone on 1H Time FrameIf the price returns to this green zone, buyers could reenter, pushing the price higher.
Strategy:
For long entries, watch for confirmation of a rebound in this zone.
If you are currently short, this could be a good area to reduce your position as buyers may step back in.
Stay cautious and manage your risk accordingly!
USDCHF: Potential rejection on the 1W MA100.USDCHF is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.705, MACD = 0.007, ADX = 41.714) but only just came out of neutrality on 1W (RSI = 58.054) despite the fact that it reached the 1W MA100 last week. Since February 2023, the 1W MA100 has been the first level of Resistance, so taking a short now is completely justified technically. The final Resistance thus short entry for us is the 1W MA200, which hasn't closed a candle over it in 2 years. Now that happens to be at the top of the Rectangle (body candles closings only). Either way, we are targeting the Rectangle's bottom (TP = 0.84100).
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USDCAD top of Channel Up rejection. Strong sell.The USDCAD pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Up pattern since the July 14 2023 Low and on Monday it hit its top (Higher Highs trend-line) and got rejected. This is a similar peak to November 01 2023, with the 1D RSI turning downwards as well on an early sell signal.
Initially, we expect at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to be tested, so our Target is 1.37300.
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US DOLLAR - Let Me Explain My Bearish Thesis...In this video, I’ll share why I believe the markets are on the verge of a major downturn.
By analyzing the US dollar chart alongside Gold, the S&P 500, and Bond Yields, I’ll explain why we may be approaching the final stages of this market cycle for stocks and asset prices.
This shift could devastate the economy, setting the stage for the next bull market. While the extent of the drop will depend on market forces, I’ll explore how such a scenario could unfold. We’ve already seen Oil prices plunge to zero—if you think that can’t happen to other markets, time may prove otherwise.
This is simply a turning point, a necessary reset to pave the way for future growth.
This is not financial advice.
EURUSD: Long term bottom formation. Target 1.09250.EURUSD is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 32.566, MACD = -0.011, ADX = 28.963) as despite the consolidation since last Thursday, it hasn't yet started to recover. This is however a common price action during bottom formation proccesses (like September and March 2023) and since the 1D RSI is on a bullish divergence (HL), we expect a rally to start soon. In the past rebounds that stopped initially on the HH trendline but for slightly lower risk we are targeting the November 5th High (TP = 1.09250), which started the recent selling.
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