EurUsd Breaks structure.. to 1.057 Monthly Level?Hello Traders. EurUsd has been ranging for the last 3 weeks ever since May CPI data. We attempted to break to the upside last monday but this resulted in a failed breakout and better than forecasted US Jobs data pulled USD down with strong momentum. Price retreated all the way to the bottom of the daily range on friday at 1.08 Daily support level. It appears this momentum has sustained itself as price gapped down over the weekend and we observed a further selloff during the first trading session of the week , moving another 25 pips. I do see some buying pressure off 1.07478 moving into London trading and to begin the week. Looking at the June Monthly candle, we are just pulling straight down thus far. Can we extend to the bottom of the Monthly range at 1.057? It seems likely the dollar will remain strong for some time given the strong labor market data and the Higher for Longer Interest rates concept. Safe trading.
DJ FXCM Index
US DOLLAR INDEX The us dollar index opened with a gap. today the us dollar index which was closed at 104.94 opened at 105.5 with 11 point gap.
this gap may be an indication that us dollar is going to resume its upward momentum this week which it has started on last Friday.
if this momentum continues it will be a fall for xauusd.
more clear cut analysis will be posted soon .
but please post your comments which will be helpful to understand what the crowd thinks and thus understand market sentiments.
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USDCAD Monthly IdeaUSD/CAD is poised for a breakout! Based on technical analysis, we're looking at a potential surge from the current 1.37660 all the way up to 1.52000 This could be a significant move, so keep your eyes peeled on the charts.
Do your own due diligence and factor in any upcoming economic news that might shake things up. As always, trade safe!
USDCHF 1H Long Trade - 1:6 RRRPair: USDCHF
Action: Buy
RRR: 1:6
SL: 0.88790
TP: 0.93364
Indicators:
EMA200: The EMA200 serves as a critical indicator of the long-term trend direction.
MACD Trend: The MACD indicator helps traders assess the strength and direction of the trend.
Supertrend: The Supertrend indicator acts as a reliable tool for identifying entry points in alignment with the prevailing trend.
EURUSD 1H Short Trade - 1:6 RRRPair: EURUSD
Action: Sell
RRR: 1:6
SL: 1.08999
TP: 1.06817
Indicators:
EMA200: The EMA200 serves as a critical indicator of the long-term trend direction.
MACD Trend: The MACD indicator helps traders assess the strength and direction of the trend.
Supertrend: The Supertrend indicator acts as a reliable tool for identifying entry points in alignment with the prevailing trend.
NZDUSD 1H Short Trade - 1:6 RRRPair: NZDUSD
Action: Sell
RRR: 1:6
SL: 0.62053
TP: 0.60339
Indicators:
EMA200: The EMA200 serves as a critical indicator of the long-term trend direction.
MACD Trend: The MACD indicator helps traders assess the strength and direction of the trend.
Supertrend: The Supertrend indicator acts as a reliable tool for identifying entry points in alignment with the prevailing trend.
Sell USD/CHF Bearish PennantThe USD/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Pennant pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 0.8915, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.8862
2nd Support – 0.8825
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 0.8970. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
Buy GBP/USD Triangle Breakout The GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.2796.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.2835
2nd Resistance – 1.2858
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 1.2750. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Opportunity Breakdown:
Triangle Breakout: Price action recently broke above a bullish triangle, a continuation pattern suggesting further upside potential.
Retest Confirmation: The price has retested the broken resistance line of the triangle and held, indicating strong buying pressure. This retest adds confidence to the breakout.
Ichimoku Cloud Support: The current price sits comfortably above the Ichimoku cloud, a technical indicator that often signals bullish momentum when the price is above the cloud.
Thank you.
USDCHF 1H Long Trade - 1:6 RRRPair: USDCHF
Action: Buy
RRR: 1:6
SL: 0.89045
TP: 0.91327
Indicators:
EMA200: The EMA200 serves as a critical indicator of the long-term trend direction.
MACD Trend: The MACD indicator helps traders assess the strength and direction of the trend.
Supertrend: The Supertrend indicator acts as a reliable tool for identifying entry points in alignment with the prevailing trend.
xauusd ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT REPORTADP is performs payroll services for its clients. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is used as a predictor of the government's Labour Market Report.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
FORECAST 173K
PREVIOUS 192K
ACTUAL 152K
the data released is less than forecast and also less than previous report, which is too much bearish for dollar.
its impact may show up after the us market is opened
XAUUSD Gold price movements tend to decreaseGold edged lower to $2,330 per ounce on Wednesday, as the US dollar stabilized ahead of May’s US jobs report expected later this week. The US nonfarm payrolls will be closely watched as investors seek cues on the potential timing of the Fed rate-cut
🔴SELL GOLD: 2348 - 2350, SL: 2354
🟢BUY GOLD: 2307 - 2305, SL: 2301
Breakout & retest:
📉Breaking and closing on: 2338 - 2354 - 2360
📈 Break and close below: 2322 - 2315 - 2306 -2300
🔼Support: 2322 - 2315 - 2305
🔽Resistance: 2338 - 2348 - 2354 - 2360 - 2374
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE👍
USD/CHF to lead DXY higher, AUD/USD, EUR/USD lower?Our bias is for the US dollar index to rise to 105 over the near-term. The daily chart respected trend support from the December low, and the 4-hour chart shows a small ascending triangle which implies a break above resistance.
Out of the FX majors, USD/CHF looks ready to break above resistance and lead the dollar broadly higher. Bears could also consider a short on AUD/USD on the assumption the high of RS (right shoulder) has been established, and seek a move down towards the neckline at a minimum. A break of which could see it head for the projected H&S target around 0.6580.
If the US dollar index goes higher, surely EUR/USD should move lower. Bears could enter short with a view to target the swing low around 1.0835 or the bullish trendline.
Sell GBP/USD Beairsh FlagThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry : Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.2710, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2665
2nd Support – 1.2640
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.2760. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
EURUSD Bullish break-out or Bearish rejection?The EURUSD pair cemented a strong rebound yesterday as it broke above the May 16 High, after it held the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. This took yesterday's 1D candle exactly at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the December 28 2023 Channel Down.
This is the last chance for the pair to resume the pattern's downtrend, if today's 1D candle closes inside the Channel Down, which will constitute a Lower Highs rejection. In that case, we will require a closing below the 1D MA50 as well in order to confirm the downtrend. The 1.0640 Support will be the Target.
If however the candle closes above the Channel Down, it will be a confirmed bullish break-out and in our opinion there will be high probabilities of imitating the July 2023 rally. That rise peaked exactly on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level, so on that occasion, that will be our Target (1.1125), which conveniently falls just below the 1.11400 Resistance. Notice also how similar the 1D RSI sequences are between the two fractals.
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EURUSD: Buy the 4H MA50 pullback and sell at the top.EURUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.032, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 27.518) and on 4H it is attempting a closing above the R1 level. On the short term we have a Channel Up that will validate the new Bullish Leg if we close a 4H candle over the R1 level. If that happens, we will buy the first pullback to the 4H MA50 and aim for a +1.43% from the latest Low (TP = 1.09400), exactly what took place on April 26th. In the same manner, we will short then and aim for the 4H MA200 (TP = 1.08500).
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The Dollar Remains On TrackThe dollar is right on its projected path as expected. Inflation has prevented the Fed from lowering rates at least once. Can we expect a rate drop before the end of the year?
My guess is that even with a bit of inflation showing the Fed will drop rates at least once. There are several reasons for my conclusion here not least of which are weakening economic indications which are too numerous to list for the purposes of this post but some of which are the collapsing car market, cc default rates exploding, commercial real estate vacancies still increasing, and many other factors and lead indicators.
There is also the fact that the Fed was initially expected to drop rates 3 times in 2024. Failing to drop at least once before the end of the year would have psychological ramifications on the market that potentially could be disastrous.
And finally, there is the fun fact that historically the Fed has always adjusted rates in an election year. There is only one exception to this rule …2012. Based upon this statistic alone we can see that the probability of a rate adjustment this year is high. And we know that if there is an adjustment, it will almost certainly be to the downside as that is what has been expected all along. Any anomaly to expectations would cause chaos and catastrophe in the markets.
All this being said we can then continue to expect the dollar to travel its expected pathway …down. 103.5 is the next support. Below that is that pink ascending trendline around 102 and rising.
Sell XAUUSD Bearish ChannelThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a well-defined channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 2343, positioned close to the Top of Channel level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2320
2nd Support – 2311
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 2354. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
USD still slight bias to the downside...Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
USD seems like going side ways for the past 2 weeks.. i am still on the slight bias for the downside on USD..guess need a decisive breakout from here on...
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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