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Usdjpysignal

USD/JPY analysis: no time for mercy? During its July meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) voted 8-1 to keep its key short-term interest rate ( JPINTR ) at -0.1% and 10-year bond yields ( JP10Y ) around 0%. However, it lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2022 from 2.9% in April to 2.4%, mentioning slowing global growth and problems with the supply chain caused by the long war in Ukraine. On top of that, as the price of energy, food, and durable goods continue to rise, the board has increased its 2022 inflation projection to 2.3%, up from 1.9%. The BoJ's policy stance remains extremely dovish. Despite a worldwide wave of central banks tightening policy, the BoJ emphasised in its statement that it will not hesitate to implement more monetary easing measures if necessary. USD/JPY chart analysis The Bank of Japan is the only central bank that has yet to join the chor us of the worldwide tsunami of monetary tightening. Clearly, the prospect for a currency whose central bank is unwilling to raise interest rates when the rest of the world is doing so is tilted to the bearish side. Although the USD/JPY pair has already reached severe oversold RSI levels on the weekly chart, fundamentals remain negative for the Japanese yen. A test of the psychological barrier at 140 is an interesting short-term level, while the most aggressive bulls see 147.55 (the high hit in August 1998) as a medium-term target (6% above current levels). The alternative scenario involves the onset of a severe US recession with deflationary repercussions as a result of a collapse in demand. This may prompt a reevaluation of the Fed’s rate rises, halting the increasing rate gap with the BoJ, which will be beneficial for the JPY. But this is a remote scenario at this moment due to the strength of the American labour market and supply chain disruptions that cause worldwide inflationary
by Capitalcom
Is UsdJpy topped? Correction is probableSince the break above 116 resistance in March, UsdJpy has risen strongly, gaining around 20%. However, from the 135 top made in June, the pair's new highs are marginal, giving us a clue that the bulls are tired. After the last high from last week, the pair has started to roll back and if today's candle is closing red, we can have a "tree black crows" candle formation on our daily chart, which is a signal for sell. As long as the last high is intact, I expect a correction, and swing trades can focus on the 132 zone. Interim support is at 135
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
5
USD/JPY may drop some before it rise againNote: USD/JPY is in uptrend, there is no doubt here. So, selling USD/JPY is risky. The FED is raising rates and BOJ is still holding their negative rates. So, as a carry trading method JPY is much weaker than the USD. And BOJ already says they are not going to raise rates anymore. Now the question may arise, WHY am I in sell mode in USD/JPY. Reason is simple, Everything has a limit. I think USD/JPY has reached its limit. As long as it didn't break above the 135.30, it is not going to up more. If you see its last few days moves. The USD became strong against most of the major currencies but couldn't against the JPY. That means the current price zone matters to the investors. If you think my logic is not strong, please you can skip it... I think after tomorrow's rate decision the USD will be weak. Because the market is priced at a 75 BP rate hike. But my mind says, the FED won't raise 75 BP. rather they will rise only 50 BP.
Short
by Gold_Trading_Expert
4