USDJPY - Long from bullish order block ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDJPY.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I am looking for longs. I want price to continue the retracement to fill the imbalance lower and then to reject from bullish order block + institutional big figure 140.000.
Fundamental analysis: Tomorrow will be released Interest Rate in USA, followed by FOMC Press Conference. If the result is positive for USD it will support our analysis.
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USDJPY: Flash Services PMI!S&P500 futures have recorded significant gains in London, indicating a more relaxed risk-off sentiment. On Wednesday, US equities experienced substantial selling pressure, primarily due to a sharp decline in technology stocks. Investors are being cautious as they anticipate that tech-savvy companies may continue to struggle due to the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates.
The rally in USD/JPY is driven by the belief that the gap in policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will widen further. The Fed is expected to continue increasing interest rates, while the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its ultra-dovish policy stance that has been in place for a decade. As a result, the Japanese Yen has significantly weakened against the US Dollar.
USDJPY: Next hurdle is seen at 140.00The USD/JPY pair is currently holding steady at around 139.20 during the Asian trading session, following a slight pullback from its weekly high near the 140.00 level on Wednesday. However, concerns regarding China's economic slowdown, worsening US-China relations, and geopolitical tensions may provide support for the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY), which could limit the upside potential of the USD/JPY pair.
In response to the US's consideration of foreign investment and restrictions on AI chips, China's Ambassador, Xie Feng, expressed criticism and warned of retaliation if the US imposes further curbs on Beijing's chip sector.
USDJPY: How does the recession affect?S&P500 futures have experienced some losses in Europe, indicating a cautious market sentiment. The ongoing second-quarter result season is expected to pose challenges for US equities. Investors will be closely monitoring the performance of banking and technology stocks as the Federal Reserve's higher interest rates are causing a slowdown in economic activities.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is making a significant effort to break above the immediate resistance of 100.00. If successful, this move would trigger a short-term recovery and possibly impact the demand for riskier currencies. The yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds have sharply dropped to around 3.78%.
USDJPY Forecast: Insights for the New Week & Follow-Up AnalysisThe Japanese authorities are facing mounting pressure as the yen continues to weaken due to market expectations of ultra-low interest rates maintained by the Bank of Japan. The yen gained traction in the second half of the previous week. Speculation of government intervention to counter the currency's weakness added further support. Although direct intervention did not occur, we witnessed a pullback from the key 145 level against the dollar, amidst numerous verbal warnings from Japanese officials cautioning against betting against the yen.
Despite these developments, the outlook for the yen remains uncertain, especially as the Bank of Japan maintains its commitment to loose monetary policy.
Shifting our attention to the U.S. economic landscape, the Labor Department's recent report revealed that June experienced a lower-than-expected increase in new hires, with downward revisions to May's figures. However, the unemployment rate declined to 3.6% in June, and average hourly earnings mirrored the growth seen in May.
Amidst the recent market volatility, there is speculation that despite pausing its rate hike cycle last month, the Federal Reserve might resume rate hikes during its upcoming meeting on July 26.
USDJPY Technical Analysis (Price Action):
This video offers a comprehensive analysis of the current market structure. Our focus centers around the key level of 142.500, which was broken to the downside following a strong bearish move. As price action remains within this zone, it becomes an area of concern, which could potentially lead to choppy consolidation before a clear direction is established. Market participants will closely watch the key economic indicators from the U.S. docket to gauge sentiment. The video examines potential trading opportunities within this area using trendlines and key levels, with particular emphasis on the significance of the 144.000 level as a potential retest for a continuation of the downtrend. The market's reaction to the range around the 142.500 area at the beginning of the new week will heavily influence the direction of price action throughout the upcoming week.
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USDJPY: LONG!The USD/JPY pair is showing signs of a cautious market sentiment, with its recovery from the previous day's decline fading around 144.60. This could be attributed to concerns about Japan intervening in the market to protect its currency, as it hovers near its highest levels in eight months. Additionally, fears of a recession signaled by the inversion of US Treasury bond yields are also posing challenges for buyers of USD/JPY.
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has stated that he is closely communicating with the US on foreign exchange matters, while the nation's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, is engaging with various countries including the US on currency issues.
Furthermore, the inversion between the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields has reached its highest level since 1981, sparking renewed worries of a recession. This is due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark borrowing rates to control inflation. The two-year Treasury bond yields have dropped to 4.85%, while the 10-year counterpart fell to 3.78%. It is important to note that both benchmark yields ended Monday's trading at approximately 4.93% and 3.86% respectively.
Japan Yen's Strengthen Secure a True Low Volatile HedgeAs the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy and inflation rates continue to drop, the Japan Yen has steadily strengthened. This trend presents a unique chance to diversify your trading positions and capitalize on Yen's increasing value. By incorporating the Yen into your portfolio, you can potentially shield yourself from market volatility and enhance your risk management strategies.
Why choose the Japanese Yen, you may ask? Well, let me share a few compelling reasons:
1. A Safe Haven Currency: Historically, the Yen has been considered a haven currency during economic uncertainty. It's stability and low volatility make it an attractive option for traders seeking a reliable hedge against market fluctuations.
2. Economic solid Fundamentals: Japan boasts a robust and resilient economy supported by technological advancements, a skilled workforce, and a commitment to innovation. These factors contribute to the Yen's strength and make it an appealing choice for traders seeking stability.
3. Diverse Trading Opportunities: The Japan Yen offers many trading opportunities across various currency pairs. Whether you prefer significant pairs like USD/JPY or exotic pairs like EUR/JPY, the Yen's liquidity, and popularity ensure ample chances to profit.
Now, it's time for action! Don't miss out on leveraging the Japan Yen's strengthening trend.
Here's what you can do to seize this opportunity:
1. Evaluate Your Portfolio: Assess your current trading positions and identify areas where the inclusion of the Japan Yen could enhance your risk management and diversification strategies.
2. Stay Informed: Keep a close eye on market indicators, economic news, and central bank policies that may impact the Yen's value. This knowledge will help you make informed trading decisions and maximize your potential profits.
3. Collaborate and Learn: Engage with fellow traders, attend webinars and seminars to gain insights and exchange ideas about trading the Japanese Yen. Sharing knowledge and experiences can be invaluable in refining your strategies.
Remember, the forex market is ever-evolving, and adapting to new trends is crucial for success. Adding the Japan Yen to your trading arsenal can unlock a true low-volatile hedge and amplify your gains.
USDJPY – What's the intervention threshold? USDJPY – What's the intervention threshold?
In September of last year, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) made a move in the market to strengthen its currency when it reached 145 against the USD, marking the first such intervention since 1998. This action was taken following the BOJ's decision to maintain an extremely accommodative policy (a policy that is yet to change still). The BOJ intervened once more in October when the yen further plummeted to its lowest level in 32 years, reaching 151.94 against the dollar.
At present, investors hold a substantial short position in the yen, valued at $9.793 billion, representing the largest such position in the USDJPY since May 2022. This value has nearly doubled in just the past three months. Notably, former Japanese Vice Finance Minister Eisuke Sakakibara has suggested that the USDJPY could reach 160 before the BOJ intervenes once again.
However, the USDJPY has recently built a bit of a buffer between itself and whatever the intervention threshold is for the BoJ. Over the past two trading days, the US dollar has weakened, largely due to remarks made by Federal Reserve officials. These statements have strengthened the belief that the US central bank is nearing the end of its tightening phase.
It is widely anticipated that Fed policymakers will implement a rate increase during their upcoming meeting this month, which would set the policy rate range at 5.25% to 5.50%. However, the timing of any subsequent rate hikes remains uncertain. There are questions whether they will raise rates again in September, delay until November, or maintain the current stance and allow inflation to naturally subside over time.
Consequently, the US dollar has experienced a decline against the yen, reaching a low of 141.32 yen, the lowest level observed since June 21. Currently, it is down 0.5% at 141.328. This drop follows a decrease of nearly 1.3% seen last Friday when the US nonfarm payrolls for June fell short of market expectations at 209,000.
#USDJPY 4H | 1H Sell🔘Broke the structure on the 4H timeframe
🔘Broke the structure on the 1H timeframe (confirmation)
If we break the market structure up on the hourly timeframe, we we'll go a little higher before drop, but if we break the red level on the 4H timeframe, the analysis becomes invalid🙅♂️
USDJPY BEARISH CONTINUATIONInvestor fears of Japanese intervention, rising borrowing costs, and US-China trade conflicts boost demand for the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY). The USD/JPY pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) remains weak. The US ISM Services PMI indicates a slowdown in inflation, which suggests a less hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the market has already priced in a 25 basis points interest rate increase. The US government bond yields remain high, supporting the USD. The rate differential between the US and Japan, along with the Bank of Japan's negative interest-rate policy, creates opportunities to buy the USD/JPY pair on dips. The upcoming release of US employment data will influence the Fed's policy outlook and USD demand. Weekly losses are expected for the USD/JPY pair.
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USDJPY | H1 | UpdateUSDJPY update, looking at USDJPY now based on my initial analysis we can see that the USDJPY tanked as per the initial forecast, there was some volatility during the course of the week due to fundamental events surrounding the USD which also acted as a catalyst towards increasing the overall momentum as we would’ve noticed with today’s NFP announcement.
But looking back we can take note that USDJPY created a short term trading range between 144.19x and 144.68x before breaking out of our minor support level at 144.19x then came back to retest that level and confirm it as our new resistance after the announcement of the US ADP Employment Change yesterday before tumbling further down. Today’s NFP announcement acted as a further catalyst pushing USDJPY to break through our initial target and support at 142.8xx & 142.6xx now we’re looking forward to it pushing further down to 141.2xx