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Upside risks for USD/JPY continue to buildIt may have taken a few weeks, but markets are finally pricing in what we argued all along; a higher terminal rate and no cuts this year. If you cast your mind back to the Fed’s recent 25bp hike, it is fair to say the Fed were not impressed with the market’s original response. Fed fund futures not only lowered the terminal rate to 5% but even began pricing in two cuts this this. And that has all been reversed, and rightly so in our view. Fed members were quick to respond and read from the same hawkish script, with little success early on as markets continued to call ‘bulldust’ on their rhetoric. That is, until a strong Nonfarm payrolls report shook things up, as it paved the way for further hikes. Yet it has taken over two weeks, a plethora more hawkish comments and strong data for markets to slowly wake up to the fact that a higher terminal rate is the more likely path for the Fed, and for us to forget about cuts this year. And that is the scenario we have backed throughout. February data which has underscored the Fed’s hawkish stance include (but not limited to): • Nonfarm payrolls 517k (185 expected, 186k previous) • Unemployment 3.4% (3.6% expected, 3.5% previous, near historic lows) • ISM services 55.2 (50.4 expected, 49.2 previous) • CPI 6.4% y/y (6.2% expected, 6.5% previous) • Retail sales 3% y/y (1.8% expected, -1.1% previous) • Core retail sales 2.3% (0.8% expected, 0.4% previous) • PPI 0.7% m/m (0.4% expected, -0.2% previous) Fed fund futures now imply: • 76% chance of a 25bp hike in March (down from over 90% two weeks ago) • 25.5% chance of a 50bp hike in March (up from 9% two weeks ago, or 0% three weeks ago) • A terminal rate of 5.5% in June (up from 5% terminal rate after the Fed’s last meeting) • Less than a 35% of a 25bp cut in December (two cuts were being priced in after the Fed’s Fed meeting) What are we looking for in the FOMC minutes? For current market pricing to be sustained (or justified, for want of a better word) we’ll need to see a more finely balanced debate over a 50bp hike versus a 25bp in Feb or even March. Markets took it for granted that a 25bp was a given in February, so any uncertainty surrounding this assumption would knock confidence that another 25bp hike in March is a given. And that could send the US dollar and yields higher, and the stock market and gold lower. USD/JPY daily chart USD/JPY reached our upside target around the 200-day EMA / 161.8% Fibonacci projection outlined last Monday, following its false break of 130 and prominent bullish pinbar. Momentum is clearly pointing higher overall, and the recent repricing of Fed fund futures and rise in bond yields ahead of the FOMC minutes provides hope that its trend can continue (if the minutes are deemed to be hawkish, as we suspect). The high around 138 are the next major resistance level, near where another soft US CPI print and the BOJ widening their YCC band originally sent the pair lower.
Long
by CityIndex
USDJPY - CURRENT SENTIMENT , FUNDAMENTAL BIAS#USDJPY - As of last day, the MARKET SENTIMENT for USD was slightly UP SIDE. The main reason for that is the JPY starting to weaken a bit and the short-term POSITIVE SENTIMENT against the dollar. Because it came with the NFP REPORT. The dollar weakened slightly after the FOMC last time. But the FED can raise the RATE HIKE or their CEILING RATE whenever necessary. Anyway, it was mentioned in the previous MEETING that the FED is still MONITORING INFLATION DATA. - All MARKETS including STOCKS and COMMODITIES are going down slightly due to MARKET RISK OFF. - There is definitely a high chance that USDJPY will go UP a bit more and move to 142.35 LEVEL. Anyway, USDJPY price can go down to 130.642 LEVEL after that. We focus on MARKET UPDATES and MARKET SENTIMENT. Follow the given MARKET STRUCTURE.
by benny_marshall
USDJPY - Short from bearish order block ✅Hello traders! ‼️ This is my perspective on USDJPY . Here we are in a bearish market structure from daily perspective, so I am looking for shorts. I look price to continue the retracement to fulfill the imbalance and then to reject from bearish order block + institutional big figure 136.000. ‼️Attention!!! Due to the fact that we have news events on USD this week, the analysis can be invalidated. Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
Short
by Snick3rSD
4
USDJPY is exactly moving according my analysis USDJPY is exactly moving according my previous analysis and nicely hitt our two main targets ( tagged ). Now market is at trend resistance and horizontal resistance zone is also here. So I expect some retracment back before bullish move. You can sell from here to the support with small SL. And buy from trend support for our main target 3. Always trade safe and must use stop loss. If you like this idea kindly appreciate with like button.
Short
by pips-makers
2
Market Update: Bullish Signals for USD/JPYThe USD/JPY market has seen some positive developments recently, with several bullish signals emerging that indicate that price action is still in favor of the bulls. One of the most significant indicators of this bullish trend is the break above the 100 EMA (Exponential Moving Average). The 100 EMA is an essential technical indicator used by many traders to gauge the overall trend of an asset. When the price breaks above the 100 EMA, it signals a potential shift in the trend, from bearish to bullish, in this case. In addition to the 100 EMA breakout, the Lorentzian Classification is also showing a 2-4 bullish price point, further supporting the positive momentum in the market. The Lorentzian Classification is a technical analysis tool used to measure the market's volatility, and it is indicating that there is a strong likelihood of bullish price movements. However, while these bullish signals are a good sign, it's essential to note that caution is still necessary. To consider a swing short, traders would like to see the price come below the trend line and the 100-day EMA. This is because the trend line and 100-day EMA are critical support levels that need to be broken to confirm a bearish trend. If the price breaks below the trend line, traders should wait to see if it retests off the 100 EMA or if it breaks below it. It's important to note that the market has only just broken out above the 100 EMA and retested it, so it may need further confirmation before any significant price movements occur. If the price breaks above the resistance zone at 135.00, traders should look to take a long position up to 137.000. However, it's important to remain vigilant and monitor the market closely for any changes in the trend. In conclusion, the current market signals suggest that price action for USD/JPY is still in favor of the bulls. However, traders should exercise caution and wait for confirmation before making any significant trading decisions. Thank you for reading our market update. Stay tuned for more updates on the latest market trends and developments. Sincerely, The Finance Academy Trading Team OfficialB1gFudg3
Long
by OfficialKieranTrewick
1
USD JPY Bullish 4HR 2/11/23Hello Traders ! Thank you for taking the time to check out my trading idea. USD/JPY has retested quasi support of 130.00 which is also the previous point where there is visible change of character within the trend. This was initially prompted by a 500k + job increase for US's Feb NFP Job report. This pair failed to break below the key level 130 where bulls last regained control . We can also see a long term trendline break and retest. Before continuing down, if UJ at some point decides to, it looks like price will be liquidity hunting the upside. Conservative target would be previous HOW Please like, and share your comments as they help me grow as a trader on this journey as well. Thanks .
Long
by MW_Trader
3
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | follow-up detailsAt 64.9, the Michigan consumer sentiment index for February hits its highest level in eight months as falling energy prices eased fears about inflation. This is a positive signal as it is a widely-known gauge of personal consumer confidence in the US economic activity. From a technical standpoint, the significant breakout of the supply zone at the 131.000 area last week was an emphatic bullish signal buttressing the idea that sellers might have lost the momentum; but following the retest of structure, price action was caught within a consolidation phase above the key level (131.000) to emphasize the level of indecision in this market. In this video, we looked at the possibilities and trading options we have from the current market structure as we look out for breakouts either way in the coming week for trading opportunities. Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
2