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USD/JPY market forecast and trend analysisDue to the significant decline in US bond yields, investors have been prompted to bet that it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further. The peak of US dollar interest rates is expected to come. It seems that the pressure on the yen in terms of interest spreads is being lifted, and the yen has once again returned to a clear strong return posture. Judging from the trend, USD/JPY is currently under pressure in the trend channel, and has recently fallen under pressure here many times, supporting USD/JPY to continue to fluctuate in the downward channel, thereby increasing the possibility of the pair approaching the next bearish target near 130. In addition, USD/JPY has fallen under pressure many times near 132.65, which has consumed the upward momentum to a certain extent. When market psychological pressure is formed, some subsequent selling orders may trigger short-selling to make up for it, and push USD/JPY to open a market to make up for the decline. In terms of trading ideas, USD/JPY: You can enter the market with short orders near 132.65 in small batches, and the short-term target is near 131. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
Short
by Short-term-king
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | follow-up detailsFollowing a profitable week, price action is at a critical juncture in the market where both a bullish and bearish momentum could be triggered in the new week. The new week is laced with a series of macroeconomic events; so we shall be focusing on the fundamental event for signals to make an informed decision. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes - its first following Governor Kuroda’s departure is going to be closely watched and from the US docket, the monthly inflation report coming up this week is also an event to look forward to. In this video, we dissected the current market structure from a technical standpoint in other to take a position ahead of the new week. Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
by darcsherry
8
USDJPY possible sell zoneCurrency Pair : USDJPY Possible direction : Bearish Technical Analysis : After a strong breakdown on the daily ( strongly influenced by JPY strength) USDJPY currently forming a symmetrical triangle which may break to the downside again as this may continue to trend to the downside to test the long term order block. From higher timeframe we can see possible downward move and, therefore, this price may continue to drop after liquidity grab from short term resistance zone. Fundamental : Silicon Valley Bank collapsed has given safe heaven JPY strong boost. Possible trade recommendation : Bearish as per chart sketch Press like button if you enjoy. Risk Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage is dangerous and can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or any market you should carefully consider your investment goals, level of experience, and risk tolerance. It is EXTREMELY LIKELY that you will sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Individual results vary and no representation is made that clients will or are likely to achieve profits or incur losses comparable to those that may be shown. You acknowledge and agree that no promise or guarantee of success or profitability has been made between you, and Forex Trading Wizard. Do your own research and talk to a professional financial planner in order to be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and investing and seek advice from an independent financial advisor before risking any capital.
Short
by ForexWizard01
EUR/USD : watch here next weekThe daily chart of the currency pair is consolidating and rebounding near the previous low of 1.0535, but it is still below the downward trending MA20, so caution should be taken for further upside potential. The 4-hour chart shows that after two consecutive days of consolidation following a sharp decline, the momentum is limited. On the hourly chart, there is intense competition between bulls and bears, with a rebounding momentum that remains strong, but the stochastic indicator shows a bearish divergence, with initial resistance at 1.0600. It is suggested to focus on the performance of the resistance level at 1.0625 to determine the further direction within the day. Support levels: 1.0580, 1.0540, 1.0500. Resistance levels: 1.0625, 1.0690, 1.0740.
Long
by Navigation-h
USDJPY possible drop to monthly supportCurrency Pair : USDJPY Possible direction : Bearish Technical Analysis : After a daily middle mand last day of trading week, today market open with strong week less candle and price has broken down with strong impulse from long consolidation. From Monthly perspective, there is rejection from monthly resistance level and highly likely price will test the monthly support zone. Possible trade recommendation : Bearish as per chart sketch Press like button if you enjoy. Risk Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage is dangerous and can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or any market you should carefully consider your investment goals, level of experience, and risk tolerance. It is EXTREMELY LIKELY that you will sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Individual results vary and no representation is made that clients will or are likely to achieve profits or incur losses comparable to those that may be shown. You acknowledge and agree that no promise or guarantee of success or profitability has been made between you, and Forex Trading Wizard. Do your own research and talk to a professional financial planner in order to be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and investing and seek advice from an independent financial advisor before risking any capital.
Short
by ForexWizard01
1
Successful retracementFrom the 137.911 level, the market made a successful retracement to the demand zone at 135.854 and couldn’t push up to the main supply 137.678 because of the previous broken structure. The rejection formed this current mid supply area and price made an impulsive drop that broke the structure and created divergence at the 134.109 low. The market is now trying to recover the massive drop, so we now target the breaker block which was our previous demand zone then expect a young bearish move to give us the ascending second drive to provide more bearish move as we await the third drive. The ultimate target is 137.678, provided that we get the anticipated third touch…
by tokelohomi
Beware of "Long Trap" in USDJPY! On March 3, Friday, the USDJPY slid from a two-and-a-half-month high. The US non-manufacturing ISM index, released on the same day, fell from 55.2 in January to 55.1. The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, dropped from a high of 105.36 at the beginning of the week to 104.60. Investors took the opportunity to profitably unwind their positions in USD/JPY. At the same time, the Bank of Japan is expected to begin unwinding its unconventional stimulus measures in the period following Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's departure next month. This is because Tokyo's February inflation data exceeded the Bank of Japan's target for the ninth consecutive month. If the new governor, Toshihide Endo, tightens monetary policy, it may stimulate the return of speculative trading in the yen. Currently, on the daily chart, USDJPY has encountered resistance multiple times at 137.00, and the MACD signal line appears to have a death cross. In the short term, attention should be paid to the risk of further pullbacks in USDJPY, with the risk of long positions at the high outweighing the profit. Personal trading recommendation: Wait for the market to fall back to 133.00-133.60 before entering long positions, with a focus on the 136.400-137.110 range. There will be many data releases in the near future, and the market may be volatile. If there is a trading opportunity, I will announce it immediately. Please stay tuned.
Short
by FlashTrades_
Euro/USD Pattern bearishbut buy bullishUSD Fundamental Outlook: Nonfarm Payrolls Focus, Surprising Data May Boost USD Summary: The recent weakness in the USD may be short-lived; Citigroup's Economic Surprise Index for the US suggests a tendency for economic data to surprise on the upside, which could boost the USD; this week's heavyweight risk event is focused on Friday's February nonfarm payrolls report. Over the past week, the USD weakened slightly, with the DXY index falling by 0.7%. More broadly, the S&P 500 index's rise of 1.9% last week was its best weekly performance since January, indicating that sentiment is a key driver of financial markets. This suppressed demand for safe havens. In this optimistic atmosphere, traders may become complacent. Investors seem to be concerned about comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. He said that the central bank may pause rate hikes this summer. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that there is "no reason" to pause rate hikes "at this point." Given these comments, the market seems to be more dovish, which is not surprising. Recent CPI and Fed-favored PCE price index data suggest that inflation is slowing down. Last week's ISM wage price index unexpectedly rose, further confirming this. In other words, the cooling of inflation is slowing down. This is not what the Fed wants to see, especially with the labor market still tight. Speaking of which, all eyes will be on this week's nonfarm payrolls report. It is expected to add 215,000 jobs in February, with the unemployment rate remaining at 3.4%. Most importantly, the labor participation rate is expected to stay at 62.4%. This means that the labor force has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels. A lack of labor supply usually means higher wages, as the number of workers demanded by companies decreases. Citigroup's Economic Surprise Index for the US remains in positive territory and is near its highest level since April 2022. This means that economists have generally underestimated data outcomes. This opens the door to the possibility of surprising upside in nonfarm payroll data. Such a result may dampen hopes for a pause in tightening policy this summer. The market now prices the federal funds rate near 5.5% by the end of the year. That is, compared to the end of January expectations, the market expects an increase of 50 basis points. Therefore, the disappointment of doves will open the door to USD strength. This week, two major risk events are coming, focusing on Powell's congressional testimony and the US February nonfarm payrolls report. On the technical front, the short-term direction of EUR/USD is not clear; according to the IG client sentiment index, EUR/USD may soon turn bullish. Euro/US Dollar Fundamentals: Focus on Powell's Congressional Testimony and US Nonfarm Payrolls Report Last Thursday (March 2nd), the Eurozone's February CPI data showed that inflation pressures remain high, and the market has fully priced in a 50 basis point interest rate hike by the ECB in mid-March. The ECB's three key rates are currently: deposit facility rate (2.50%), marginal lending facility rate (3.25%), and the main refinancing operations rate (3.0%). With core inflation in the Eurozone continuing to rise and the ECB continuing to tighten monetary policy, some analysts believe that rates will reach 4.0% by the end of Q2 or early Q3. Although the Eurozone's Q4 2022 GDP growth rate was almost negligible at 0.1%, this has not hindered the ECB from making controlling inflation its top priority. There are two major risk events to watch this week: first, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver semi-annual monetary policy reports testimony to the Senate on Tuesday (March 7th) and to the House of Representatives on Wednesday (March 8th); and second, the US nonfarm payrolls report for February will be released on Friday (March 10th). Powell may reiterate that the Fed's rate hike path will still depend on the specific data and that continuing to raise rates is appropriate. Since the release of January's nonfarm payrolls report, the market's expectations for a Fed rate hike have continued to rise, driving a strong rebound in the US dollar. This data release may again expose the dollar to high volatility. Euro/US Dollar Technical Analysis: Short-Term Direction is Not Clear On the daily chart, the Euro/US Dollar is stuck in a range above 1.0600, with direct support and resistance likely to be around 1.0535 and 1.0700, respectively. The short-term direction is not clear, and future trends may depend on this week's major events and next week's ECB interest rate decision. IG Client Sentiment Index: Likely to Soon Turn to an Uptrend Euro/US Dollar: According to IG client sentiment data, 53.71% of traders are net long, and the ratio of long to short traders is 1.16:1. The number of net long traders decreased by 11.27% compared to yesterday and by 14.21% compared to last week, while the number of net short traders increased by 13.23% compared to yesterday and by 26.38% compared to last week. In general, crowd sentiment tends to be a contrarian indicator, and currently, net long positions imply that the Euro/US Dollar may decline. However, the number of net long traders has decreased compared to yesterday and last week, and combined with recent sentiment changes, the Euro/US Dollar is likely to turn to an uptrend. Operationally speaking, although there appears to be a bearish sentiment in the market, it is often the case that the market takes a contrarian approach, providing support at key levels. In this situation, it may be advisable to enter the market with a small long position, as this goes against the prevailing sentiment. Because this is a contrarian strategy, it is not necessary to take a large position.
Long
by StarVenus-
3