Get started

Usdjpyforecast

USDJPY sideway waits NONFARM to break narrow marginThe Japanese yen was flat on Friday after the Japanese finance ministry announced Japan's foreign exchange reserves. Japan's Ministry of Finance announced that he will take action on excessive JPY exchange rate volatility when necessary and will evaluate the effectiveness of the intervention. He emphasized the importance of maintaining market confidence in the JPY while also mentioning that there is no limit to the resources for the foreign exchange intervention fund. The dollar is struggling after weak US employment data raises hopes that the FED will lower interest rates twice in 2024. Economists predict a rate cut in September in addition to the possibility of another cut. The possibility of the FED lowering interest rates in September. In the h4 time frame, there have been signs of a bearish reversal in the USDJPY pair. The 34 EMA has crossed down to the 89 EMA and the recently created highs are getting lower. Overall, the pair is still stuck in a narrowing price band and is waiting for Nonfarm today to break out of the band. Pay attention to important support and resistance zones: Support: 156,400-153,600 Resistance: 154,500-157,700
by TVS-Trader
1
💡USDJPY: Analysis May 14USDJPY increased yesterday, and bar D1 yesterday closed beyond the previous Inside bar pattern, creating a breakout to establish a new high, continuing the push to the bottom. This breakout could add further upside momentum to USDJPY D1. Structurally, USDJPY D1 is still moving sideways in the main price increase in D1. USDJPY H1 broke out of the accumulation price range to set a new high price peak, returning to the short-term upward price trend. However, right now USDJPY H1 is starting to be overbought - overbought - because the price has exceeded the upper boundary. At this time, you should not buy to chase, but should wait for the recovery period to decline before buying USDJPY H1. The buy zone for the day is the round number 156.00 + the upward sloping trend line at the bottom. If this zone is broken down, USDJPY H1 will weaken and serve as a basis for the idea of waiting to sell later. H1 trend: USDJPY increases. Today's trading idea: Buy USDJPY.
Long
by Stone_Haven
2
USDJPY → Huge Fall from 160.000 Heading for 148.000!?USD/JPY raced to test 160.000 last week and as expected, had a massive sell-off that ended Friday just below the 152.000 breakout area. Should we still be long? Or is it time to get short? How do we trade this? 🤔 The question in my last analysis was are we in for a hard sell-off? And should we buy these pullbacks? The conditions we see today change the perspective on buying the pullbacks. That wasn't just any sell-off, that was a hard rejection and reversal pattern. The sell-off from 160.200 dropped nearly 600 pips in 8 hours. This was followed by a meandering pullback toward the previous candle close high of around 158.400, which ended in another massive drop to 153.100. We then had a final bear push just below the breakout level of 152.000. We can read this a couple of ways, the first is that this is our re-test of the breakout area as I expected two analyses ago where I expected a confirmation of the 152.000 area as support before making it to 160.000: However, we never tested 152.000, we went to 160.000 in rapid fashion first. Such volatility is a sign of a reversal or at least, a push below the breakout level. We have a rough double-top from the initial sell-off, then its follow-up, followed by a third push to the breakout point. We're three pushes up after the 152.000 breakout, a massive sell signal and follow-through at the 1990 Key Resistance Level of 160.400, and we've closed below the 4HR 200EMA. A similar pattern played out in October 2022 with some slight differences as seen here: October 2022 Pattern: This was the first time we touched 152.000 and had a massive sell-off, followed by the same meandering pullback to the 4HR 30EMA, which acted as a rough head-and-shoulders reversal pattern. However, the close was below the 4HR 30EMA on the pullback and above the 200EMA on the first bounce. This time, the pullback went above the 4HR 30EMA to touch the channel top and then closed below the 4HR 200EMA. That last point is a key difference. Both instances are clear reversal signals with follow-through, but the 160.000 rejection was much stronger with a close below the 4HR 200EMA. If the price comes back up to test that 200EMA and gets rejected, that's our signal to short. I would then be targeting levels below 152.000, where the price previously met resistance, which will now likely act as support. Those levels are 150.800 and 148.800. It's very possible we fall much further. But I recommend waiting for that rejection from the 4HR 200EMA and then short 1:2 Risk/Reward to those two key levels. It would be reasonable to swing 25%-50% of your position to lower levels if the price action warrants it. If the price does not get rejected at the 4HR 200EMA, we need to wait and see if the bullish pressure resumes and adjust our bias accordingly. We are still in the channel, the confirmed break below is what we need to justify getting short. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Short Entry: 153.550 🟥 Stop Loss: 155.800 ✅ Take Profit: 149.050 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Three pushes up after the 152.000 breakout to the key level of 160.400 2. Strong rejection and follow-through back down to the 152.000 level 3. This strong volatility at the end of a trend is a sign of a reversal 4. Enter a 1:2 Risk/Reward trade down to 149.050. Potentially swing some of your position lower. 5. RSI at 35.00 and below the Moving Average, supports pullback before fall. 💰 Trading Tip 💰 The longer a trend continues after 3 legs, the probability of that trend continuing lessens. Because of this decreased probability, we ought to reduce our risk when entering trades and start looking for reversals. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about: 1. Reading Price Action 2. Chart Analysis 3. Trade Management 4. Trading Psychology
Short
by TraderEngineering
3
USDJPY → Aiming for 176.500!? Let's Dig In.USD/JPY broke ascending triangle pattern at the 152.00 Resistance level per my last analysis. Since then, we have seen the completion of the measured move to 154.500 followed by a third leg up to 158.350! Is this the moment to long? Or are we in for a hard sell-off? Previous Analysis: How do we trade this? 🤔 I would not long the market open. After a strong Friday push, traders are far more likely to take profits, likely pulling the price down to the 156.000-157.000 range with the possibility of a hard wick to the 153.000-154.000 area. That being said, we should remain long-biased and buy these pullbacks, as USD/JPY has been on this bull trend since January 2021. This trade pertains to the Weekly timeframe. I would drill into the 4HR and Daily to find more precise entries. It's reasonable to assume the pullback at this level, so we should look for a bounce at one of the key areas mentioned and enter a long position. On the Weekly, aim for a first take profit of 169.500 where half the position is taken off the table, then move the stop loss up to the entry price. The second take profit should be taken just before the 1978 key level of 176.900. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: 156.700 🟥 Stop Loss: 150.300 ✅ Take Profit #1: 169.500 ✅ Take Profit #2: 175.900 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Breakout of key 152.000 price level 2. Strong bullish price action completing the measured move to 154.500 3. Third leg to 158.350 complete, wait for a pullback 4. Enter a 1:3 Risk/Reward trade taking half profits at 1:2 Risk/Reward. 5. RSI at 74.00 and above the Moving Average, supports pullback. 💰 Trading Tip 💰 The longer a trend continues after 3 legs, the probability of that trend continuing lessens. Because of this decreased probability, we ought to reduce our risk when entering trades. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about: 1. Reading Price Action 2. Chart Analysis 3. Trade Management 4. Trading Psychology
Long
by TraderEngineering
1
USDJPY → At 152.000 Resistance! Will it break to 160.000?USD/JPY has been bullish since January 2021 and is currently in an ascending triangle pattern, indicating a potential push through the 152.000 resistance level. Is this the moment to long? How do we trade this? 🤔 We need to wait for a confirmed breakout of 152.000. The probability of a breakout is high, but we need the confirmation of support at 152.000 to justify a long entry. Once we see a strong bull candle off of support, a 1:2 Risk/Reward on the Weekly timeframe is a straightforward trade to take. The RSI is around 60.00 and above the Moving Average, providing enough headroom for a move to the upside. It's also reasonable to take a long trade on the Daily timeframe which will allow you to get an earlier entry and a better Risk/Reward, but the Weekly timeframe provides us with a clearer picture of the situation. When Take Profit #1 is hit, half of the position should be sold, the stop loss should be moved to the entry price, and the second half of the position should go to Take Profit #2. This locks in profits after the first take profit which is at 1:1 Risk/Reward. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: 153.570 🟥 Stop Loss: 150.900 ✅ Take Profit #1: $156.400 ✅ Take Profit #2: $158.900 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Ascending Triangle at 152.000 Resistance level, a bullish pattern. 2. 30EMA providing key support above the ascending support band. 3. Wait for a breakout of 152.000 resistance and confirmation of support to long 4. Enter a 1:2 Risk/Reward trade taking half profits at 1:1 Risk/Reward. 5. RSI at 60.00 and above the Moving Average, supports long bias. 💰 Trading Tip 💰 The longer a trend continues after 3 legs, the probability of that trend continuing lessens. Because of this decreased probability, we ought to reduce our risk when entering trades. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about: 1. Reading Price Action 2. Chart Analysis 3. Trade Management 4. Trading Psychology
Long
by TraderEngineering
USD/JPY back in a strong resistance zone - SHORT from 151.90I'm SHORT USD/JPY for the following reasons: a). Price is back at a confirmed area of resistance last hit on 3rd April and 27th March b). The Andean Oscillator on 15m time frame has seen a rise of the red SELL line and is now reading .0082 having been at .0027 previous candle and .0010 candle before that having been reading zero for several bars. c). Andean Oscillator has just signalled a BUY trade on EUR/USD, GBP/USD suggesting the USD is losing support. d). Andean Oscillator is suggesting a SELL on USD/CAD confirming that the USD is coming under SELLING pressure. e). Price has broken the 20 EMA on 15M and is pushing through the 50 EMA f). MACD is signalling SELL as the fast MA has croseed south under the slow MA. g). RSI has been decling for the last 4 bars having reached the resistance zone. Taken all together this looks a decent SELL trade though we do not have as many confirmations as we would like but as there's a natural STOP just above the recent high and this STOP is just 10 pips above our entry then the reward for this trade should the selling pressure on USD increase is potentially very good as our initial target would be WPP mid pivot/200 EMA at 151.48. There is an absense of news this week until Wednesday when US CPI numbers are printed so the market will drive the price over the next several sessions.
Short
by forextraplaces
Decoding USD/JPY Future in a Changing Economic Landscape Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis for USD/JPY 1. Monthly Time Frame: - Key Observation: Noticeable rejection of the USD/JPY price at a significant support level, indicating potential bullish sentiment or a reversal point. - Additional Note: High liquidity observed at price highs, marked by two equal highs, which could signify resistance zones. 2. Weekly Time Frame: - Key Observation: Transition in market structure from bearish to bullish, indicating a potential longer-term upward trend for USD/JPY. 3. Daily Time Frame: - Key Observation: A shift in market sentiment is evident, aligning with the bullish outlook observed in the weekly timeframe. Fundamental Analysis: Federal Reserve Policies and Economic Indicators 1. Federal Reserve's Stance: - Policy Outlook: Continuation of a restrictive monetary policy for the foreseeable future, with the possibility of rate peaks being reached. - Inflation Control: Strong emphasis on reducing inflation sustainably before policy easing. 2. Economic Indicators: - Optimism on Inflation: Growing confidence in managing inflation, with potential rate cuts envisioned in 2024, though the exact timing remains uncertain. 3. Market Reaction: - Impact on USD/JPY: The Federal Reserve's stance typically has a direct impact on USD/JPY. A more restrictive policy tends to strengthen the USD against the JPY, while a more dovish stance or rate cuts could weaken it. 4. Future Projections: - Interest Rate Trajectory: Anticipation of three rate cuts in 2024, suggesting a potential future weakening of the USD against the JPY. - Economic Growth Forecast: Slow growth expected in 2024, which could influence currency strength dynamics. 5. USD/JPY Specifics: - Japanese Economic Factors: Apart from U.S. economic indicators, USD/JPY traders should also consider Japan's economic health, monetary policy, and geopolitical factors influencing the yen. Trading Implications for USD/JPY - Short-Term Strategy: The bullish technical signals on higher timeframes suggest potential long positions in the short to medium term. However, be mindful of resistance levels highlighted by the liquidity at price highs. - Long-Term Outlook: Fundamental analysis indicates potential weakening of the USD in 2024 due to anticipated rate cuts. Traders may look for signs of trend reversal or strengthening of the JPY for future positioning. - Risk Management: Keep an eye on upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and announcements, U.S. economic data releases, and Japanese economic indicators. These can cause significant volatility in the USD/JPY pair. Conclusion For USD/JPY, the current technical analysis suggests a bullish trend in the near term, but fundamental factors indicate potential shifts in 2024. You should maintain a balanced approach, staying updated with economic developments and central bank policies in both the U.S. and Japan. As with any currency trading, risk management and continual reassessment of the market conditions are crucial.
Long
by Wiiso
#USDJPY: Possible 600 Pips Bullish Move Expected | It is on DXY|Happy weekends Everyone! FX:USDJPY it had created higher and then dropped to fill the order blocks, now price is at very critical area, if DXY remain bullish next week we can see a nice and clean 600 bullish move. For JPY, it is already bearish and will likely to remain bearish next week as the current economic conditions are not stable. Currently, what we expecting , watch for price to come down to our area then we advise you to take buy entry with 70-100 pips max and set tp at 147-149-151 as followed. Good luck and trade safe, remember to trade safe and use strict risk management.
Long
by Setupsfx_
29
USD/JPY H4 | Rising to 61.8% pullback supportUSD/JPY is rising towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to fall lower. Buy entry is at 149.180 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 149.915 which is a level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit 1 is at 148.148 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Risk/Reward Ratio: 1 : 1.40 Take profit 2 is at 147.510 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Risk/Reward Ratio: 1 : 2.27 Total risk 1.28% High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Short
by Alvard
2
USDJPY → About to Breakout to New Highs? Let's Maximize Profits!USDJPY is on its third leg up in this bull channel that started at 141.000. We're near the top of Resistance Zone, is a long justified? How do we trade this? 🤔 We need confirmation of a breakout to justify a long. After the initial bull run to 152.000, USDJPY pulled back with three legs to 140.200 and followed with a run to our current position of just over 149.000. The price action is technically at a new high in this run which could be the top of the third and final leg up. Given the two strong bull bar closes on February 2nd and 8th and the lack of a sell signal, I do not believe this leg is over yet. What we need is a close above the Resistance Zone at 150.000 followed by a test of the top of Resistance as support. Once we see that support, it's reasonable to enter a long position with a 1:2 Risk/Reward Ratio. Take half profits at 1:1 Risk/Reward which is 151.200, move the stop loss up to the entry price to lock in profits, then swing the second half above the previous 152.000 high. 152.000 is a significant resistance area and I would be cautious to assume we'll make it to that price, however, the trend is our friend until the very end. Until we have a reason to change our bias, we must remain long. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: 150.385 🟥 Stop Loss: $149.250 ✅ Take Profit #1: $151.200 ✅ Take Profit #2: $152.650 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Two strong legs up in a micro bull channel. 2. Third leg in progress, strong bull bar closes on February 2nd and 8th, indicating more upward momentum. 3. Near the top of the Resistance Zone, wait for a close above and test of Resistance as Support. 4. Enter a 1:2 Risk/Reward trade taking half profits at 1:1 Risk/Reward. 5. RSI at 63.00 and above the moving average, supports long bias. 💰 Trading Tip 💰 The longer a trend continues after 3 legs, the probability of that trend continuing lessens. Because of this decreased probability, we ought to reduce our risk when entering trades. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about: 1. Reading Price Action 2. Chart Analysis 3. Trade Management 4. Trading Psychology
Long
by TraderEngineering
1
USDJPY I Technical and fundamental analysis & Trading PlanWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
by BKTradingAcademy
1