USDCNH top-down analysis, UPDATEDHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDCNH
USDCNH top-down analysisHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDCNH OANDA🌟this pair is traded for a long term situation with a high R/R value (the R/R stays the same)
🌟in this ascending channel you can see the reversed H&S formation (or the 3 buddha or 3 rivers in Japanese trading) which is an indicator for a bullish bias and its marked with faint yellow highlight
🌟you can observe a blood waterfall (marked with red highlight) which is abnormal in the market and distracts the EMA statistics and for balancing this situation a green mountain needs to recover this bleed of the market from the top to the bottom of the channel (both waterfall and mountain phrases are visionary and not official formats)
🌟this position has a 3510 pips rewards aside a high cost stop loss so manage your leverage properly
Risk warning, disclaimer: all of the following signals/ideas are subjective and based on market judgement of our team's technical and fundamental analysis , we hope traders consider this and always check it with your own strategy, if you don't have any we can help you form one
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Cataclysms are brewing in the global stock markets. China.All because of the situation with one of the largest developers in China - China Evergrande Group, which found itself on the verge of default (debt size ~ $ 300 billion).
The possible bankruptcy of the company will hurt not only the Chinese economy (remember Lehman Brothers).
Deposits in Chinese banks are about to $35 trillion, which is twice the size of the United States. Chinese financial crisis will lead to unforeseen circumstances and will affect all world markets.
Industrial production has negative rates in China. Now it is near the lowest level since the global financial crisis.
The devaluation of the yuan seems inevitable.
Best regards EXCAVO
USDCNH top-down analysis Hello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDCNH | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsEven though we held on to a 400pips move in our direction since my last publication on this pair; a sudden breakdown of Channel and Trendline coupled with the appearance of a Head & Shoulder pattern (see previous publication in the link below for reference purposes) insinuates a bearish momentum is imminent.
Further consolidation amidst a mixed outlook remains the perspective of the market in the last couple of months and the momentum garnered by the buyers (correction phase) appears to be thinning out as the successful breakdown of Bullish Trendline insinuates a risk of further decline for the Greenback in the coming week(s).
Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish)
Structure: Breakdown | Trendline | Reversal pattern (Head & Shoulder/61.8% retracement)
Observation: i. The Bearish Impulse which started in April 2021 went through a correction phase in the last 3 months to culminate @ CNY6.5300 area - an area that coincides with a 61.8% retracement of AB Leg.
ii. The appearance of a baseline with three peaks, where the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest reveals a Head & Shoulders pattern describing a formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal.
iii. During the course of last week trading session, we witnessed a significant rejection of CNY6.51000 level (2nd Head) which led to a confluence characterized by a breakdown of both Trendline and Key level @ CNY6.48500 hereby inciting a Bearish potential for me.
iv. In as much as I am comfortable taking a sell position anywhere below my Key level, the degree of accuracy to this bias is expected to be confirmed once the price breaks down the Neckline @ CNY6.45000.
v. A further breakdown of the Neckline might transpose into a Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) with extensions of CD leg aiming at CNY6.28000 area (127.2%) and a window to add to our existing position at Breakdown/Retest of CNY6.42000... Trade consciously!😊
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 750 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:6
Potential Duration: 7 to 14days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
ridethepig | CNH Market Commentary 22.08.2021Buyers position marks (5) as a soft and temporary floor.
Other events can cause the base to appear a lot stronger than it does, so the transfer of the attack from one direction to the other can be subtle, although not a matter of pure chance.
It has been a relatively straight forward flow, but one that has not seen much light thrown on the subject thanks to noisy explanations. As can be seen in the charts below, @ridethepig was concerned at the highs.
The said possibility of a temporary floor is much rather a natural profit taking move in the struggle against sentiment. A considered judgement about the perverse signally from PBOC and Xi ought to look something like; base at 6.35xx is strong support (after the powerful legs lower it is very sensitive). That is the real truth, we are inside a multi-year decline that could go a lot. lot lower, for now, we shall have to content ourselves with limiting adding short positions till we are back above (4) highs at 6.587x for another test of the lows in our current range (6.58x - 6.40x).
USDCNH Facing bullish pressure | 25 Aug 2021USDCNH reacting above ascending trendline support. With price breaking above moving average, we see a possibility of a further push up above our entry at 6.47452 towards graphical overlap resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and our take profit at 6.49267
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USDCNH | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsAfter been stopped out of the bearish expectation on my last speculation on this pair (see link below for reference purposes); the price found bullish potentials as it broke out of descending channel to find a new high.
Despite the new digital yuan tendency of increasing the international usage of China’s national fiat, I am of the opinion that the positive momentum noticed during the Breakout of Bullish rectangle (CNY6.45000 and CNY6.50000 range) on the 27th of July 2021 is a bullish sign and has the potential of extending to the CNY6.5500 level and beyond in the next couple of weeks.
Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish)
Structure: Breakout | Supply & Demand | Channel
Observation: i. CNY6.5000 level which has been a significant zone that resisted price action in the last 3 months was finally broken with a bullish engulfing candle and I suppose this event reveals a bullish momentum building up behind the scenes.
ii. Bullish Rectangle: In the last 40days, the price has been moving between horizontal support and resistance levels (CNY6.45000 and CnY6.50000), a feat indicating there has been no trend.
iii. The Breakout of the rectangle on the 27th of July is presently considered a false one considering the two bearish engulfing candles that followed it.
iv. Despite the bearish run following the breakout, price is still contained within the rectangle hereby fortifying hopes of a second breakout.
v. Above Key level @ CNY6.46000 remains a comfortable zone for selling the Chinese Yuan in the coming week with possibilities of the second breakout of CNY6.495000 welcoming an opportunity to add a position.
vi. I have also noticed that since finding a bottom @ CNY6.35000, there is the appearance of an Ascending channel where price formed two positive sloping trend lines drawn above and below a price series (resistance and support levels) detailing an uptrend in price.
vii. It is also worthy to note that, the Key level @ CNY6.46000 is a significant level for bullish momentum as it has a memory for buying power as far back as 2016 (see weekly chart below).
viii. A further Breakdown/Retest of CNY6.53000 might welcome addition to the existing position... Trade consciously!😊
Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 800 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:4
Potential Duration: 7 to 15days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USDCNH top-down analysisHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDCNHUSDCNH in the descending channel. It forms the small bullish triangle and bearish ascending wedge inside.
☝🏻 More and more countries have trading relationships with China. It may:
- make the yuan more and more popular;
- put the dollar under structural pressure;
- increase tensions between China and the United States.
Best regards EXCAVO
Is USDCNH starting to build an inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern?After forming a beautiful double-top formation above 7 coming into 2020, we saw a fabulous downtrend in line with the USD weakness of 2020. But as Echo & The Bunnymen sang " Nothing ever last forever" and is that now the case with the USDCNH Monthly chart?
Do we see the start of a possible inverse Head & Shoulders pattern building here? Or just the start of summer malaise?
Id like to see price trade through 6.58 first, and then slide to approx 6.45 region which would back my theory. Watch and shoot over the next few months!
USDCNH top-down analysisHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDCNH top-down analysisHello Traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDCNH top-down analysisHi Guys, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis video. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover my next analysis.
Also let me know your thought in the comment section what you think about this pair.