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USDCNH

USDCNH - one of the most important charts in FX markets A key set-up for the radar - we currently see a solid test of the H&S neckline, where a break targets 6.6500 - a move here would be conditional on a moderation in US core CPI (due 13 Dec) and a fed funds terminals rate headed to 4.75% - however, any decline in this cross would lift AUD, NZD and be thematic of outperformance in Chinese equities Price is breaking down and while we typically see less interest in this cross than a G10 FX pair, it's importance in macro markets cant be overstated.
Short
by Pepperstone
Update on the Chinese YuanA few months ago, I proposed USDCNH/USDCNY consolidating for a bit and then going higher, as such strong moves usually follow through. The Chinese economy looks extremely weak for multiple reasons, and I see no way that the CNH/CNY won't lose much of its value relative to the dollar. Technically it is ready for another strong move higher, and the fact that Pelosi is visiting Taiwan could be the catalyst for a breakout. Of course, I could be wrong, and the market has a pullback first. However, I think that would be a buy-the-dip opportunity. Going down to 6.6 would be a gift, and that's where I'd want to add to my long positions (short CNY). In my opinion, the market will take out the double top at 7.2$ first, maybe pull back, and then move significantly higher. However, my first target is a bit lower because I do some resistance there, as there was a breakdown that was never retested. Regardless of what your target is, the R/R here is tremendous.
Long
by BitcoinMacro
1
The USDCNH/USDCNY move was extraordinaryAs the Chinese economy was slowing even before the lockdowns, the strict lockdowns put a lot more pressure on the CNH/CNY. This created a huge divergence in the policies of the Fed and PBoC, as one was hiking and the other was cutting. For quite some time the USD was going up against most currencies, except the CNY... until one day the market fully reversed and rallied much higher. By looking back to the USDCNH price action over the last decade, we can see that the two times we got such huge rallies, the market initially pulled back, and then went higher. Now when we compare the duration of those rallies, their magnitude and how overbought the market got by using different metrics, they all look fairly similar as a whole. For example the first one from 2015 was longer and slightly larger than the current one, but the initial leg was brutal. The second one from 2018 was the largest and quickest, however the market wasn't that overbought and the move made more 'sense'. Therefore this move has the potential to be just like the previous two. In the short term I could easily see USDCNH trade back to 6.53-6.58, but my long term target is above the 7.2 double top. The same way the double top around 7 broke and the market went to 7.2, I expect the market to go above the 7.2 double top. No idea where could it top, but it is possible that we get a prolonged bull for USDCNH.
Long
by BitcoinMacro
USD/CNH:BUY From PREMIUM Area for a LONG Setup The USD in the last session, by the macro news, has a loose value against the EUR, this will affect all the pairs correlated, especially all the ones with the first denominator starting with USD. Today I want to talk about USD/CNH that comes from a long Bullish rally where in the last sessions it's inside an accumulation rectangle. We are looking to buy again here at a discount, around the 50% and 61.8% FIBO levels where the Dynamic trendline of the Bullish channel can work as additional support. The Alternative scenario will happen if the price will broke 78.2% Fibo and the Bullish channel will be invalidated.
Long
by FOREXN1
7
USDCNH probably going a lot higherA little while ago the PBOC lost control of their currency and we saw the US dollar rising exponentially. In the latest trade report from China Exports from China edged 0.3% lower yoy to USD 298.37 billion in October 2022, missing the market consensus of a 4.3% growth. This was the first decline in shipments since May 2020, amid poor overseas demand as cost pressures grew globally and supply disruptions lingered. There is a real chance that the US dollar could keep rising as the offshore renminbi CNH collapses further. China needs to export to the US to receive the US dollars, to then go out and buy stuff like Oil. This is why the Chinese and the Saudis earlier this year start to formulate a plan for China to buy direct with their own currency.
by Macrobriefing
Jackson impacting USDAfter an important Jackson, Powell consistent attempt at persuading (or forcing) equities higher is coming to an end and it is time for a round of chart updates across the board. This sort of tendency, which toys with the idea of tapering and rolling up purchases should be seen as such; USD shorts are increasingly less appropriate; but here the dominating factor between the two currencies is the transition to CBDCs and a race to the bottom. The well being and woes of China who are already miles ahead in their fourth beta test, will determine effectively who cancels the currency first. A very plausible move throughout 2020 since buyers remained hesitant to play the safety leg. I was hesitant to play the leg higher but this decision made things a lot easier. The correct course now is switching to a new course, this time an ABC sequence towards 7.31x (+13% from current levels) into 2022 to offer lasting protection, invalidation for this move will come below March 2018 lows (-3% from current levels).
Long
by ridethepig
10
USD/CNH set for fresh breakout as growth concerns intensifyThe USD/CNH is definitely worth watching as the recession narrative comes back to the forefront of investors' minds. The renewed weakness in the yuan has been mirrored in the price action of things like copper and China's stock market, which fell overnight despite US and European indices rallying. Fears over global growth intensified after China decided to postpone, without giving a reason, the release of its third quarter growth and industrial production figures that were due for publication this Wednesday. Analysts think that economic growth there has slowed to a new three-decade low of 3.3% compared to 4.9% recorded in the same period a year ago. But the fact that China has delayed the release of the data does not look good and investors are worried that the world’s second largest economy may have performed even poorer than those expectations. At the same time, the Fed has yet to indicate that it is ready to pivot to a more dovish stance. This is keeping the dollar bid. The USD/CNH has, in response, started to move higher again. It looks like a breakout above the September high is on the cards, as rates continue to print bullish characteristics.
Long
by FOREXcom
3
usdcnhUSD/CNH reached the big 0.7000 level – which was a potential scenario we first floated back in August the 16th. The pair is currently within its seventh consecutive month higher and supported by the divergent policies of the Fed and PBOC. The 2-year spread between US and China’s bond yields are soaring higher and USD/CNH prices are gladly following. With increased speculation that the Fed would not only raise rates by 100bp next week, but also raise them to 5% by March 2023, that comes as no surprise. And this is despite the PBOC’s attempt to stabilise their currency with cuts to their RRR (reserve requirement ratio) and withdrawing ¥200 billion. Still, were these measures not taken the USD/CNH likely be trading higher, and I’d argue that Beijing likely want a weaker currency anyway to boost growth via exports – much like the BOJ. The 4-houtr chart remains in a very strong uptrend, and after a daily close above 7.000 yesterday it has now respected that key level as support today. Resistance has been met at 0.7030 (a 76.8% Fibonacci projection from a longer-term bullish triangle), so we’re now waiting to see if it can hold above 7.000 – which is likely a pivotal level over the near-term. Should break back below 7.000 then bulls could seek bullish setups above the 6.9615 low, whereas a break above 7.0400 assumes bullish continuation and brings 7.1000 into focus.
Long
by DrGhanizadeh
USDCNH is on a 6-day winning streakThe US will release a series of high-impact economic indicators related to inflation and the labor market during the trading session, which will bring high volatility to major Forex pairs. The US will release: Consumer Price Index, which is expected to increase from 296.171 to 296.43; a higher figure will be positive for the USD as it suggests high economic activity. They will also release the Inflation Rate YoY, which is expected to drop from 8.3% to 8.1%; higher inflation will be bullish for the USD but will negatively impact the US Stock market. The US Initial Jobless Claims indicator is expected to increase from 219K to 225K for the first week of October, suggesting that the labor market is finally giving in; however, we have seen surprisingly good numbers for the labor market in recent weeks. Later in the trading session, China will release the Inflation Rate YoY, which is expected to increase from 2.5% to 2.8%; a higher rate will be positive for the Yuan exchange rate against other currencies. China will also release the Balance of Trade for September; analysts anticipate an increase from $79.39B to $81B. China is a prominent exporter and has maintained a surplus since 1995; a higher figure than expected will be positive for the Yuan. USDCNH is on a six-day winning streak; the general trend continues to be upward as the pair is currently trading above the short and long-term moving averages. Our parabolic S A R indicator strengthens the long signals. The Bollinger bands are still wide and moving upwards, which suggests there will be high volatility and that the pair will continue moving upwards; however, the bands are starting to shrink, which indicates that the pair might enter a consolidation phase in the medium term. The relative strength index is at 64%, allowing the pair to continue climbing a bit before entering an overbought status. If this happens, there might be a temporary change in the market sentiment. Read more news.baxiamarkets.com This publication does not provide financial advice for traders, and its only purpose is education. Use all the available information from different analysts and develop your own trading strategy. Trading forex and cryptocurrencies is not for everyone. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not indicate future results.
by traderscolo-en
USDCNH to the Moon (Venezuelan Style)OANDA:USDCNH It does not look like USDCNH will be seeing levels below 7.0000 soon. With 7 now becoming support I expect this to continue to move in the inflation direction. China is considering devaluing its currency for the first time ever. With Xi Jinping's ZERO-covid policy psychopathically trying to achieve ZERO virus infection rate. It is a living-in-the-dream-world idea. This is the characteristic of the CCP which is not known for living in reality but only follows its ideologies to an extreme level oppressing every possible solution in exchange for more oppression of public life. They will not be able to save their currency at all. The inefficiency and the ineffective government will continue to be plagued with trouble. They only concern themselves with "face" not substance. Winning is impossible, so they must try to appear as though they are. (propaganda) Protests in China are an everyday thing now. Citizens are dying of starvation from being locked into their apartments and also heat waves of drought after massive flooding earlier in the year. Office buildings burning, gas pipes exploding, damns collapsing, and bridges and chemical plants blowing up due to misguided regulations add more to the troubles that are stirring up. Since I am very familiar with their consistent failure I will continue to make money buying USDCNH to infinity. We will see more suicides, mass starvation, and clashes with police in the streets. I began trading USDCNH a year and a half ago. My long-term target of 7.01 which at the time it was near flat 6 and I thought it will be impossible for it to reach my target and yet here we all are today. Sentiment: Right now nearly ZERO buyers and nearly 100% of Sellers are in positions around the world. This means the price of USDCNH will head up until all traders give up their short positions and will create even more buying orders don't the other side. This is how I have traded all year and has been successful and will continue as I take contrarian sides of currency pairs.
Long
by TruthakaWallStreetakaCookie
Copper’s many tangosIn the following charts below, we will highlight why copper looks interesting to us right now. Firstly, the Copper Outright prices (orange) vs the Calendar spread (black). Copper calendar spread tend to move in-line with its outright prices, until major turning points, when the calendar spread leads the outright price movement. In February 2022, we observed the copper calendar spread making a significant move lower, with the outright prices following suit in April. With the calendar spread making a significant move higher now, is this what they call déjà vu? Secondly, copper prices and the Chinese Yuan have a relatively high correlation as China is the world’s largest buyer of the metal, and by a significant margin. The recent weakness in the Yuan has led copper prices lower, but with the CNYUSD pair seemingly recovering now, could some strength in the Yuan lead the copper rally? Thirdly, the Gold/Copper ratio generally trades within a pretty defined range, with out-of-range moves happening during major market events. The ratio’s recent high can be attributed to copper weakness compared with gold. With signs of the ratio retracing off the upper range, have we marked the end of this move? And is it time for copper to gain some ground against gold? Looking at the price charts, we see copper trading near the significant long-term support level of 3.3. Previous attempts to break this support in July and September were both rejected. On a shorter timeframe, we see a descending wedge pattern forming, which is generally considered a reversal pattern. The same setup is also observed on the Micro Copper contract, which offers greater flexibility and precision in execution. Copper’s interesting relationships with major currencies and commodities, allow us to analyze it from multiple angles. With some relationships at major inflection points now, we lean bullish on copper. Entry at 3.44, stop at 3.1335. Target at 3.8320 and 4.0000 . If you’re keen on understanding more about Copper and its many relationships, do check out our previous research piece: www.cmegroup.com The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by inspirante
11
USDCNH -0.92% The US dollar is losing ground to some currency pairs after the US 10-year treasury Note spiked in the previous trading session. The Chinese Yuan gained 2.44% after reaching a 14-year high yesterday. The US released Initial Jobless claims this morning, and the result came out at 193K, a better than the expected figure by 22K; analysts anticipated a 215K. The figure is not only better than expected but also better than the previous release, which strengthened the USD against four of the six major currency pairs. China will release N B S Non-Manufacturing PMI at an early stage of the new trading session. Analysts expect the figure to come out at 52.8, while the previous was 52.6. We could see a minimal improvement, but it is more important that the figure stays above the 50 level, which indicates industry expansion, the release of this economic indicator will create more volatility in the exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan against other currencies, mainly against the USD. China will also release N B S Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to come out at 49.6 from a previous 49.4. Although we could see the figure improve slightly, if it stays under 50, market participants will interpret it as an industry contraction and are likely to take action. The USD Index is 17% up this year, and we see very solid numbers in the labor market despite the Fed's efforts to slow down economic growth. It could be hard to beat the dollar this year. Currently, the US stock market negatively correlates with the US dollar. The pair continues on a general uptrend as the short and long-term moving averages are still below the current price; the pair is retracing, but after the release of high-impact economic indicators, the dollar could resume the rally. The Bollinger bands are wide and continue moving upwards, suggesting that volatility will continue to be high and that the pair will likely resume the uptrend. Our Parabolic S A R indicator strengthens the long signals. The relative strength index is recovering from an overbought status, currently at 62%. We could see the pair pull back closer to the support level at 7.061120 before the uptrend resumes. Read more news.baxiamarkets.com This publication does not provide financial advice for traders, and its only purpose is education. Use all the available information from different analysts and develop your own trading strategy. Trading forex and cryptocurrencies is not for everyone. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not indicate future results.
by traderscolo-en
USD/CNH: Bullish pennant pattern formed – Yuan to fall to 7.20?The US dollar-Chinese yuan pair ( USD/CNH ) has been trading on a bullish pennant pattern since April of this year, and is currently testing the critical 7.00 threshold, which corresponds to the close of July 2020 and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level (2022 lows to May 2020 highs). Following the PBoC's decision to reduce Chinese domestic banks' forex reserve requirement ratio by 200 basis points to 6% beginning September 15, the 7.00 mark level may face some selling pressure from the bears. This policy action could in fact free up dollars to be converted into Chinese yuan to sustain the economic slowdown caused by the reinstatement of Covid-19 restrictions. The USD/CNH pullback may find support at 6.89 (1 September lows) or 6.85 (61.8% Fibonacci level). But if 7.00 is broken, then 7.20 might be next. This target (7.20) represents the height of the flagpole when added to the breakout point and will complete the Fibonacci retracement to the highs of May 2020. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
by Capitalcom
FX trader - All upside for the USD as the JPY is carted outIt’s days like this that running a trend and/or momentum strategy works wonders. The USD pairs, notably USDJPY, USDCNH and USDCHF are ripping – We see the JPY as the weakest though with USDJPY spiking to 143.59 in early trade today, on what looks like a stop run through yesterday's session highs and amid thin liquidity. The trade-weighted JPY sits at the lowest level since 2007 and some are questioning if the risks of verbal JPY jawboning from the Bank of Japan or the Ministry of Finance (MoF) have increased? Potentially, but in this current bond driven dynamic the market will pounce on JPY weakness. Consider that we haven’t seen a sizeable lift in Japan’s inflation expectations as a consequence of Japan importing inflation (through the FX channels) and that will appease the BoJ. Commodity prices have come well off the highs, which will benefit energy importers (like Japan). However, we are back to trading central bank divergence – FX trading in its purest form, albeit from a fundamental perspective. Don’t fight the Fed means staying long the USD, at least for now. We can see the central bank divergence manifest in the FX forwards markets, where corporate treasurers are able to roll over USDJPY exposures for 12 months at a 600-pip discount – interest rate parity dictates this, but when you get this level of carry you know the JPY has very little safe-haven qualities, and in this current environment the JPY is simply a bond proxy. For the JPY to really head higher bond yields need to trend lower – the JPY (and perhaps gold) would become the default hedge if bond yields really started to head lower on global recession fears – not a trade for right now, but it could play out in late 2022 – recognise the signs and have the theme on the radar. The fact we continue to watch US bond yields climb is pushing more capital into the USD – some of the recent moves can be explained by US corporates issuing a high level of corporate debt and the market having to sell out of other fixed income instruments to fund this. Some have been driven by slightly better US data (ISM services for example). US ‘real’ rates (US Treasuries adjusted for expected inflation) are moving higher and higher. It also feels like the USD market is front-running Fed Quantitative Tightening (QT), which ramps up to the incredible pace of $95b this month - we have seen a strong relationship between falling Fed reserve liabilities and the USD and if this relationship is maintained then USDJPY could be headed for Y150+ over time. Draining reserves (system liquidity) aside, the real effect from QT would come if the US Treasury were to beef up issuing longer-duration Treasuries in late 2022/early 2023 – when you remove a price-insensitive buyer (the Fed) from the market the private sector is asked to step up the heavy lifting, and that can mean compensation in the form of higher bond yields. Is the FX market front-running this QT process…? Feels like that is the case. The BoJ on the other hand remain steadfast in its dovish stance and the market may start to think about taking them on again. We shall see, but the easier trade has just been to short the JPY, than the Japanese bond market. Next Tuesday we get US August CPI, and this could be huge for the markets and especially the USD. The market will go into a frenzy of excitement about the implications of the CPI print, but in a world where we’re so desperate to hear of peak inflation if we get an upside surprise, it could be painful for USD shorts. Of course, with the world so long of USDs, a downside surprise vs consensus, especially if it came from both headline and core inflation. The playbook is set, but needless to say, this is the event risk to have on the radar. Nearer-term we listen to speeches from Fed VC Brainard (02:35 AEST) and Chair Powell (Thursday 23:10 AEST) and their views will move the USD, so keep this on the risk radar.
Long
by Pepperstone
As policies continue to diverge…For readers who have been following us right from our first ever TradingView idea, you’ll recall our first ever trade idea on long USDCNH. It’s been a fun 5 months writing and sharing our thoughts with the community. Much has happened since April, but two critical things stayed the same. The US Federal Reserve remains hawkish, raising rates, while the PBoC remains dovish, continuing with its easing stance. The result? USDCNH trading beyond the 6.9 level, surpassing both our target levels. With the next Federal Reserve meeting coming up, we think it’s time to review this idea again. The CME FedWatch Tool allows us to gauge what market participants are expecting the Fed to do. The prevalent consensus seems to be that the Fed is likely to raise rates till the end of the year before holding rates at the 3.75 – 4.00 % level for the next year. On the other hand, the PBoC has continued to ease, cutting reserve requirement ratios & lowering its medium-term lending facility. With China still battling Covid via lockdowns, persistently low inflation numbers, and weak economic numbers, we see further easing on the cards from PBoC. Looking at the charts, the USDCNH pair has just completed a symmetrical triangle chart pattern. After breaking out to the upside and a brief pull-back, prices continued upwards with strong momentum. Using classical charting techniques, the target levels for the breakout can be set to the distance of the high and low of the symmetrical triangle and applied to the top of the triangle. With the target price of 7.1180, there is still upside for this trade. It seems that policy divergence will remain for these two major economies, which is likely to strengthen the USD and weaken the CNH further, driving up the USDCNH pair. Using technical to identify target levels where we will be comfortable, we think that there is room for more upside. Entry at 6.9500, stop at 6.8545. Target at 7.1180. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
CME:CNH1!Long
by inspirante
9
USDCNH breakoutPrice broke up this triangle📐 and I think there is chance for run to 6.92 and even higher. Setting BUY LIMIT order to previous range high to catch🎣 the pullback. Resistances along the way ENTRY : local high @ 6.735 STOPLOSS (SL) : local low @ 6.668 TARGET (TP) : height of the triangle projected from midpoint of the local range (BUY LIMIT - STOPLOSS) @ 6.92 REWARD RISK RATIO (RRR) : 2.8 INVALIDATION : when SL level hit Check my other stuff in related ideas. Please boost🚀, comment🗣️, follow me✒️, enjoy📺! ⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
Long
by bizmark
7