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USDCNH

USD/CNH 1H Chart: Two scenarios possibleThe US Dollar has been trading in a triangle-like formation against the Chinese Yuan since mid-January. Along the way, the pair tested the lower boundary of a four-month channel down circa 6.26. The Greenback likewise breached the prevailing junior channel yesterday. This suggests that the pair could retrace from the breached pattern and start edging higher later in the day towards the upper triangle line at 6.37, especially given the fact that the US Dollar is supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP at 6.33. On the other hand, technical indicators demonstrate that some downside potential still exists in the market. In case this bearish scenario occurs, the proposed fall should not exceed the 6.31 mark where the bottom triangle line is located.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Rate expected to breach resistanceUSD/CNH is trading in two descending channels which have guided its movement during the past three weeks. The rate was moving along the bottom boundaries of both patterns prior to reversing from the senior one circa 6.2575 and forming a new channel up. The Greenback’s movement during the past two weeks has been bounded in a short-term channel down whose upper boundary coincides with one of the previously-mentioned medium-term patterns. The base scenario favours a soon breakout north towards the most senior channel circa 6.36 during this week. In order to fulfill this scenario, the rate has to overcome a significant resistance of the 200– and 55-hour SMAs and the weekly PP near the 6.31 mark. In case the bearish sentiment prevails, the US Dollar should be guided towards the monthly S1 near 6.2050 during the following trading sessions.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Breakout from junior channelA channel down has confined USD/CNH for the last three months, while a junior channel was formed a four weeks ago. As apparent on the chart, the US Dollar tested the 6.2815 mark yesterday - its lowest level since mid-2015. The upper boundary of the junior formation was breached on the same day. The Greenback has since retraced from this line and remained stranded between the weekly PP and S1 Technical indicators are still in favour of another decline, given that the northern barrier is set by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP circa 6.31. However, the US Dollar should gain strength within the following days, breach this area and eventually get ready for a medium-term advance towards the senior channel located in the 6.38/42 area.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/CNH Long term The US Dollar has continued to lose ground against the rest of the currencies. The USD/CNH pair is no exception to this event. However, there is one interesting aspect to the decline of the Buck against the Chinese Yuan. The currency pair recently stopped its decline and began to trade sideways. The move was initiated by a combined support of the lower trend line of junior channel down pattern, weekly S1 and monthly S2. All of these support levels are located in a range from 6.4200 to 6.4290. Meanwhile, resistance is provided by the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at the 6.4480 mark. The pair is likely to trade sideways until it reaches the resistance of the channel. Afterwards, the decline should resume.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Pair remains near channelThe US Dollar’s movement against the Chinese Yuan during the past six weeks has been guided by a descending channel. The pair was trading along its bottom line last week and thus fell to its four-month low of 6.4715; however, it did eventually gain strength on Monday. Following a test of the 6.54 mark, the Greenback initiated a new wave down—a move was disrupted by the 55-hour SMA. Given that the pair remains testing this line for several hours, it might be finally breached within this session. A subsequent fall, however, should be stopped by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the 23.60% Fibo retracement near 6.5050. The steepness of the senior channel suggests that it could be breached during the next week. A surge might follow, thus setting the 6.55 area as a near-term target and 6.57—for a longer term.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Greenback fails to pick up speedUSD/CNH has been guided by a descending channel since mid-October. The lower boundary of this medium-term pattern was tested late on Tuesday. However, a subsequent surge up was halted by the 55-hour SMA—a resistance barrier that was tested early today. Given that the pair failed to surpass this moving average already last week, it is likely that it hinders for several hours near this line and the 100-hour SMA and the monthly S1 in the 6.5520/6.5650 territory. The pair might even trade lower during the following hours, but it should eventually pick up speed and push towards the junior channel circa 6.58.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Rate trapped in triangleA symmetrical triangle has dominated the USD/CNH currency pair since early August. It seems that this pattern has reach maturity, thus pointing to a soon breakout. As apparent on the chart, the US Dollar has likewise formed a channel down. It is currently testing the upper boundary of this pattern. The given currency has just moved above the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMA. This suggests that traders might still see a slight movement north. However, this advance should be limited by the upper triangle boundary and the weekly R1 in the 6.6550/6600 area. Given that the pair entered the senior pattern from above, the breakout is likely to be southwards. Thus, even if the rate manages to reach 6.6550, the US Dollar is expected to depreciate against the Chinese Yuan in the medium term.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/CNH meets long term supportThe US Dollar has been plummeting against the Chinese Yuan during the second half of August. However, it seems that the decline of the Buck against the Yuan has ended. The currency exchange rate has met the support of a rather week long term descending channel pattern near the 6.5240 mark. It is possible that the trend line managed to hold its ground because of the weekly S1, which is located at that level. Since then the pair has managed to score gains and reach the 6.56 mark, and it is expected to continue the surge. However, politics are more likely to set the exchange rate.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USDCNH Bottomed / BTC-Crypto ForecastDear traders, I believe we are at a critical juncture here. Quite possibly, China allowing shorting of their currency might have made the $USDCNH pair bottom last Friday. This is no minor news, and if we study the chart we might be able to understand the relationship between the chinese Yuan and cryptocurrencies. Since 2014, that $USDCNH bottomed, it spent a long time basing, before starting a prolonged bull market. On the way up, said bull market was showing signs of exhaustion, which us, using the Time @ Mode methodology could see and anticipate. ByFebruary 2017, it was clear that bull market had ran its course, at least for a few months. After a period of distribution, with the government making efforts to strengthen the Yuan, severely punishing speculators, forbidding the shorting of the currency, and increasing rates to borrow the Yuan, the market topped and started a strong decline. The signals on chart indicated a fall to at least 6.54509 was warranted, within March/April until November/December 2017. Since this target was exceeded, it is likely that the market is bottoming, or possible bottomed. This doesn’t mean mmedate upside, but possibly a period of basing in the daily or weekly timeframe might ensue. This aligns with the time duration of the decline, ending by November or December of this year. After the end of November, if $USDCNH bases around here, the market will be ready to surge upwards during December! How does this matter for cryptocurrencies? Well, the long term forecast I made available long ago, with the only change being the price target getting extended to 6303.98, had a time duration of 20 months, culminating during November/December 2017. This also happens to correlate nicely with the timing of fundamental events that can derail the bull market in crypto like the Segwit2x hard fork, and interestingly, with a period that already started, that of increased scrutiny and regulatory oversight, which might culminate in the start of a 20 month bear market in BTC, which is what the long term technical charts suggest. Now, what are the risks? There is a chance we already topped, since target #1 in the weekly was hit, and we already saw some pressure from bears lately, but there is a larger probability that the market won’t fall immediately, since I assume that the smart money will need time to liquidate their holdings. How can they buy themselves time now? Maybe approving an ETF for trading in the US, like the Winklevoss, and maybe even the ETH ETF surfaces and is approved...But, I’m pretty sure, that the writings are on the wall, the start of a 20 month bear market in BTC is well overdue, so, I will start taking precautions. First, I will look to accumulate long positions in the $USDCNH pair, as my first move, and econd, I will be ready to hedge or liquidate holdings if needed, to then redistribute to my other accounts in equities and currencies, reducing my crypto position to only 25% of my net worth. If we do start a bear market, shorting might be a profitable endeavor, so, why not? In the short term, I’m following sentiment and technical charts, to determine if my bullish outlook is correct or not. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
39
USDCNY. Filling the Mega Gap. Wave 5One of market wizards once told that to find the trend we should squeeze the chart. Frankly speaking I thought USDCNY is in a correction before I squeezed the chart, the Monthly chart. The pair had a Mega GAP in 1994. It looks like we have an echo from that distant time in form of a downside impulse, which is filling the gap. We could be in the last large wave down to hit the 5.8145 mark. This idea is opposite to the primary market opinion of imminent devaluation of yuan.
Short
by aibek
5