Get started

USDCNH

USDCNHbearish rising wedge looks ready to break for a large move down in USDCNH. This aligns with DXY topping out, the next few weeks should be interesting for this pair. Strong resistance was not able to be held on the daily and weekly ending 3/08. I posted before this big move up in USDCHN that I was long, it is now entering a reversal. see here Some insight: There are many interesting things aligning at the moment. Silver has had a double bottom on the monthly line and a strong bounce on 3/08 - please see my other post. USD is topping out. US Bond yields look to make a big move upwards. I believe this is all linked. In my last analysis of USDCNH I mentioned that China is a big bond holder of US notes and they would not want the Yuan to appreciate. My GUESS now is that China is getting ready to dump it's short bonds and selling those dollars and buying cheaper Yuan before letting the Yuan appreciate (parabolic move). This will be the retaliation on US for the trade-wars. this could set off a crisis, commodities will go upwards strongly also.
Short
by djmitchb
USDCNH - OVERDONE PARABOLIC This is getting politicized a ton with the ongoing "trade war" issue. I'm not writing off the fact that trade wars are a problem, and I wouldn't write off that they could have some effect on how the currency reacts. But the deval of the Yuan is unlikely to be a trade war retaliatory measure. This is worse - this is the uncontrolled devaluation of the Yuan due to China's dollar funding problems. This all ties back into their massive debt load, but also into Eurodollar markets as Jeffrey Snyder has written about extensively at www.alhambrapartners.com Take note of the timing of things. If the Yuan devaluing was a retaliatory measure, why did it so coincidentally line up with the date in which the USDHKD 0.01% peg was hit? This date also lines up with big drops in gold 0.77% , copper -2.43% , and tons of other EM currencies. Oh, it also is the day the dollar started appreciating again. This is all a signal that the dollar short being kept in place by China hit its limits (in my opinion). This resulted in a global collateral call, and restarted the rising dollar trend which China was so desperate to stop in 2015/2016. Comment: For a full understanding of things - read the article below. www.alhambrapartners.com
Short
by harmonay
1
China's dollar funding problem & why their currency is devaluingThis is getting politicized a ton with the ongoing "trade war" issue. I'm not writing off the fact that trade wars are a problem, and I wouldn't write off that they could have some effect on how the currency reacts. But the deval of the Yuan is unlikely to be a trade war retaliatory measure. This is worse - this is the uncontrolled devaluation of the Yuan due to China's dollar funding problems. This all ties back into their massive debt load, but also into Eurodollar markets as Jeffrey Snyder has written about extensively at www.alhambrapartners.com Take note of the timing of things. If the Yuan devaluing was a retaliatory measure, why did it so coincidentally line up with the date in which the USDHKD peg was hit? This date also lines up with big drops in gold, copper, and tons of other EM currencies. Oh, it also is the day the dollar started appreciating again. This is all a signal that the dollar short being kept in place by China hit its limits (in my opinion). This resulted in a global collateral call, and restarted the rising dollar trend which China was so desperate to stop in 2015/2016.
by GTStockmaster
USD/CNH Short IdeaUSD/CNH is showing signs of exhaustion after a bull rally which started in April 2018. Appearance of wick rejection at current high. On the day chart we see an evening star pattern, and a large bearish engulfing candle. Using fib and impulsive movement of price anticipate retracement to at least 50% or 61.8% fib level, which are key levels of this pair. Dollar is also weakening which is playing into this analysis. Placement of stop loss above previous high. Low risk to reward. Trade at your own risk. This idea is for demonstration and study purposes only.
Short
by mrsceleste
USDCNY Daily tf analysis.This analysis takes a quick look at the USDCNY on a Daily tf chart. The points noted on the chart are discussed below: (1) Major bearish trendline in the USDCNY (in color blue) that has been active since ~January 04, 2018 and was successfully tested on July 3, 2017. (2) This region marks indicates where the USDCNY is expected to find resistance on a breakout above the major trendline. This region is indicated by the price labels as ~ between $6.84 and $6.80. (3) This is the resistance area that coincides with the major trendline i.e. (1) above. The implication of both is that it indicates stronger resistance than (2) above. (3) is present between ~$6.72 and $6.67. (4) Support region between ~$6.57 and $6.53 that is expected to provide a bullish momentum upwards in price action. A break below this region is expected to see price reach between ~$6.48 and $6.44 as indicated by (5) in the chart. (6) This is the MACD with only the MACD line (blue) and signal line (orange) color shown here. Both indicate a bullish bias for the USDCNY. However, price at the trendline (1) and resistance area (2) above do suggest waiting to see what happens at the resistance area before taking further action.
by Coin_Analyst
USD/CNH ShortMarket needs some correction after that kind of rally. Bulls are exhausted. Prices didnt break 6.7 and as u can see this is an important history level. RSI, MFI, and CMF are all reversing, after peaking like mad. (on the 4hrs). The 30 minutes already completed the inside bar pattern, hourly vvill make it in 10minutes if it closes belovv 6.684. I believe in a correction that could bring us dovvn to 6.6 or 6.52 area. Maybe lovver. But those are my first 2 TP's. Stop Loss above 6.7. You can see asvvell that GOLD is trying to bounce, vvhich is inversely correlated to USD. I vvas able to catch some entries above 6.69 so I think I'm really fine on that one but it could be vvorth jumping in the train novv! VVait for some bounce and short it might be a nice idea. I'm expecting the correction for at least this vveek and I'll keep updating along the vvay, could stay until end of month maybe, depends on many things. Thanks for reading!
Short
by icebergREAL
2
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Possible decline in sightThe US Dollar was trading sideways against the Chinese Yuan during the first two weeks of June. This was followed by sudden acceleration as a result of which the rate gained 1.70% within a couple of sessions. Along the way, it breached the senior channel formed in late 2016. It is apparent on the chart that the rate has likewise reached the upper boundaries of two junior patterns near 6.49. The Greenback might still edge slightly higher during the following hours until the monthly R2 at 6.5062 are reached, as technical indicators still point to some upside potential prior to reversing to the downside. Subsequently, it is expected that the Greenback tries to make a retracement from the breached channel and the 23.60% Fibo, thus targeting the 6.41 area this week.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
FX. Looking at USD pairs for next week.Hey warriors, here is what I think and approximatly how I will trade the 10 USD pairs I am watching, 7 majors + 3 ones with good spreads and opportunities. EURUSD Trend: Bearish until further notice. Testing it right now. How to trade: Short if it gets to 50WMA / 200DMA. Long if it gets to 0.5 fib & 200WMA & 100WMA. USDJPY Trend: Unsure. How to trade: do nothing until it moves alot, at least above 111. AUDUSD Trend: Unsure. How to trade: Wait. USDCAD Trend: Unsure. Perhaps turning bullish. How to trade: Wait. GBPUSD Trend: Bear. How to trade: Short if it goes to 200DMA/150WMA, long if it goes to 100WMA. NZDUSD Trend: Bear. How to trade: Do not go long. Short it if it goes in the area with the many moving averages, and 0.5 fib. USDCHF Trend: Unsure, maybe bullish. How to trade: Go long on 0.382 fib where all the MA's are too. Don't go short. And now for the exotic pairs :D USDSEK Trend: Bull? How to trade: Go long on 0.382 fib & 100WMA. USDMXN Trend: BULL. How to trade: Just go long, unless it flashes up & there is bullish divergence. Might be risky. USDCNH Trend: Going bullish. How to trade: Short it on 200DMA, perhaps long later.
by MrRenev
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Two scenarios are shownThe price movement of USD/CNH during the past few weeks demonstrates a medium-term consolidation, meaning that the US Dollar has failed to move above the 6.3833 level, while support has been provided by an upward-sloping trend-line. Two scenarios are possible in this situation. First, a breakout of the 6.39 area should result in a surge towards the senior channel and the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement at 6.42 during the following week. Second, the pair might still diminish its trading range between the aforementioned barriers until downside risks prevail and start a medium-term decline. In this case, it is likely that the pair targets the monthly PP and the weekly S2 at 6.30 within the following two weeks. Technical on the longer-term time-frames are tilting towards the bearish scenario.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/CNH 4H Chart: Pair consolidates in triangleThe US Dollar keeps diminishing its trading range against the Chinese Yuan since the beginning of this year. As a result, the rate has formed a symmetrical triangle and is therefore consolidating slightly above its 2016/2018 low of 6.2570. Even though the US Dollar has managed to push slightly away from this territory, its inability to overcome the 6.37 mark might still point to another decline. This assumption is likewise confirmed by strongly bearish technical indicators in both shorter– and longer-term time-frames. If the given pattern is breached to the downside, the pair is likely to target the aforementioned yearly low at 6.2570 during the following two weeks. In the meantime, a northern breakout of the current trend-line at 6.3250 could result in a surge towards the 6.40 area.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690