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USDCNH

USDCNH and DXY Non-Confirmation Suggests Reversal Potential USDCNH has held a massive level defined by resistance in October 2017 and support from February-April 2019. Price has also turned up from the bottom of a steep bearish channel. The top of the channel is about 6.81. Strength above would be viewed as constructive. Also, every important turn over the last 3 years has been marked by non-confirmation between USDCNH and DXY. A bullish non-confirmation is in place as long as DXY is above its September low. Finally, DXY seasonal tendencies turn up now (5 year look back) and after this week (10, 20, and 30 year look backs). Visit scandex.com to view more charts and ideas.
Long
by jsaettele
ridethepig | USDCNH Long Term Macro Playbook📍 USDCNH An interesting few days for those in Chinese rates, a 100bp move in the front end, what an express train move!! Never seen anything like this before and shows the power from vol in repo fixing. PBOC will want to keep the pressure off equities, as they have been doing for some time now and hence we can see some recycling of those longs come out and make their way into bonds. This will be their only way to defend and help keep the moves to the downside contained and measured in USDCNH. In spite of the wide consolidation in Chinese Equities lately, China will be a major winner in particular from the oil crash as they were loading on the lows. The cheaper Chinese energy bill will help offset the next 12-18 month crisis. A smart move with the Oil CNY contracts as it essentially creates another mattress on the balance sheet. Later this will be described as the 'only move' that made sense and rightly so. Of course, aggressive dollar devaluation for the medium and long term is the new and decisive playbook. Sellers are happy to have held the highs, but their remaining ammunition must now make a significant impression. Those following the details of this 3rd impulsive wave may need to pull a trick or two after such a difficult battle. In any case, a test of 6.46 will be quite heart rendering, much better a deep retracement than a shallow breakup at this point .
Short
by ridethepig
1
The US Dollar is going to zero. Any PB is an invitation to sell.The USD pyramid scheme continuing its road to zero after a short term recovery. As I said back then - idk when weeks ago several times - any usd "recovery" is just an entry to short the ponzi at a good price. I would not pick any lame tiny pullback and I would have a small stop but not too small I can't (can anyone?) be precise. But I think unless the USD crashes hard, I mean REALLY hard, I don't think there will be a mega brutal recovery. So I'll bet on it when it bounces. Not sure yet but a stop of 1 ATR or less it what I'd go for it will depend on many things. By the way I dropped the indicators that I said I used a few days ago, that did not last long 😂 They get in the way and are really annoying, they do not serve any purpose honestly they just looked good. Obviously I use the ATR to sort of measure volatility and help size stops but I don't need it on the chart getting in the way. Other USD pairs are good too but I think USDCNH could end up real violent. It is accelerating since June. It is just getting more and more painful for whoever is foolish enough to be a bull (most likely the 3 retail traders that trade this pair are all furiously fighting the trend) The chinese currency had its biggest daily rise since 2005... China dumping its USD bags, foreign investors buying their currency and bonds. The chinese government are not as eager to devalue their currency and are willing to let it get stronger now. The pair of the world largest 2 economies (eurozone doesn't count you know what I mean and I'm not even sure they are up there right now) has a daily volume of $200 billion last I checked. It has an amazingly low retail trader participation, something like 20 times less than absolute garbage NZDCHF, and seems likely alot of potential investor are not paying attention (but now they heard about it, keeps mooving lower and biggest move ever - since it unpegged to the usd 15 years ago), funds, private investors... All the trend following sheep will join at some point. If retail paid attention they would buy due to low IQ but they are not relevant enough to make a pullback I do not think (and they'd sell the second it goes up rofl). Might not get good pullbacks yikes I hate when this happens. When it gets too extended no point even looking for one... The more it goes down the more money manager take notice. If it keeps going down because of a multi year fundamental reason at some point even Warren Buffett will come sell/buy. The USDCNH is just leading so hard It's going to zero. It's finally going to zero. 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Short
by MrRenev
7
The CNH manages to force the USDCNH exchange rate to hold steadyAs evident on the chart, the Chinese yuan manages to force the USDCNH exchange rate to hold steady this Friday’s trading sessions. Despite that, the trading pair’s prices are still widely projected to continue its bullish route and gradually head on over to its resistance level in October. However, it’s worth noting that more experts are now getting convinced that Beijing is ready to let its currency strengthen against the US dollar. This raises speculations as to whether the yuan could actually become one of the biggest currencies in the coming months. On the other hand, the US dollar’s strength was strained by the latest news about Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s indication to aid or support small business and unemployed people in the United States. According to Powell, the US Congress should prioritize those groups if they were to reallocate the funds away from backstopping the central bank’s own emergency lending programs.
Long
by Financebroker
RidetheMacro| USDCNH Market Commentary 2020.09.22✅ The optimistic numbers have proved that the world’s second largest economy is steadily recovering from the virus slump. Notably, the pair has already been falling for the 6th week in a row, therefore the report has just added tailwinds to the yuan. Moreover, the massive sell-off of the USD pushed the pair to the downside as well 📉. 📌 It’s impossible to ignore the US-China complicated relationship. There was some sign of improvement after the report of the successful phone call between two countries Recent weeks. China and the USA have promised to obey the phase-1 trade agreement, that encouraged investors. Nevertheless, there is still some uncertainty ahead of the election of the US president in November, which may significantly affect Sino-American relations. other side 📍 The Chinese central bank, the PBoC, kept the 1Y Loan Prime Rate at 3.85% and the 5Y Loan Prime Rate at 4.65%. The last time the central bank cut rates was in March.
Short
by Ridethemacro
ridethepig | USDCNH Market Commentary 2020.09.22It is a well known phenomenon that the darling of 2020 has been the Yuan. An important difference operationally for China has allowed the sharp speculators to ride the flows in the endgame of an economic cycle. We must first take a look at the outpost we spotted earlier in the year, the start of sellers activity. There are signs of some short-term dollar strength via risk which means the flows are becoming less simplistic in nature and will start to aggressively shake out the late retailers with awful entries. The continuation from this position is also down to Fed. As US continue to print and finally artificially devalue the dollar we must also track the speed of which inflation returns. Those who believe in 2% inflation making a return will be tracking the supply side chains, rather than the demand side. Less tech advancements, a pullback in globalisation and increased government intervention are bearish for US and Chinese Equities.
Short
by ridethepig
3
China’s recovering economyDespite the recent upside faced by the exchange rate, it looks like the bearish trend isn’t over yet. The prices of the US dollar to the Chinese yuan exchange rate should continue to buckle and get lower, hitting its support line in the latter half of the month. The positive sentiment in China’s recovering economy is helping bearish investors keep the pair grounded in the trading sessions. Meanwhile, it was just recently reported that the United States President, Donald Trump, raised the idea of decoupling the two biggest economies. Trump suggested that separating the United States from China would not hinder the two powerhouses economically. This idea could hurt the US dollar as the recovery of the American economy can be tied to some of its businesses and activities with mainland China. With the presidential elections fast approaching in the US, the market is bracing itself to the possible outcome, whether it would be Biden or Trump again.
Short
by Financebroker
Let's just print money 🎇 Let's just tax the rich 🎇USA 🛬💥Wealth inequality in the last 200 years has been the highest in human history. This is based on various records, estimates, and just a bit of common sense. And for 200 years the public has been looking for magic tricks that sound like "lose 50 pounds in 2 weeks with no effort". The public enjoys job security and have a government that provides for them, but does not understand we live in a universe where nothing is created everything is transformed. Their security and comfort comes at a price: freedom and wealth. People that the government treats as enemies, that have no security, that take all the risk, that are held responsible for the wellbeing of their workers, of course they reap a huge reward in exchange. It is even frustrating that the public think they can have anything for free. They are basically selling their time for money, an accurate name for this system would be wageslavery, now it is not called like this because of "stigma" or in other words emotions. But few will get far by being slaves. Back in Rome gladiators could become superstars, rich, buy their freedom, and live in wealth. Today corporate executives can start as basic slaves and end up director or CEO and get wealthy, but most slaves will stay at the bottom. Most of the public selling themselves for security is NEVER going to end up in greater wealth inequality. 200 years... will the circle ever end? In the USA after Trump election the corporate tax went down, and he let companies bring their offshore money home. This seems to have had no effect on the buyback program trend that continued follow the same path it started in ~2010. This is how it goes: Companies "reinvest" their profits rather than have them be taxed => Stock market bubble => Spreads to the housing market => Rents go skyhigh => The public gets angry and fights for more income and corporate taxes (most of the public is surprised when anyone mentions most big wealth is not created via income but asset appreciation). The public fights for cheaper rents by fighting to make the rent more expensive 🤷‍♂️. I think a good 90% of the public does not know the difference between purchasing power & currency. The only way the government can increase person A purchasing power is by taking it away from person B. It's like they are all 5 years old it really is crazy. There is no "taxing surplus". If person B has plenty of pieces of paper with a number of them as "surplus" then the government taking that away reduces his purchasing power by ZERO. Adults believing in Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy. Meanwhile I never bought it not even at 5 years old. Ireland had an ath corporate tax of 50% in 1982, and it was down there with the poor countries (not super poor but below all the rich ones), with Hong Kong, Oman, Gabon, etc). African country Ghana had a higher GDP/Capita than Ireland. The USA had 2.5 times Ireland GDP/Capita. China was sooooo far down. This was almost 2 decades after their cultural revolution and they were still at pretty much zero o.0 countryeconomy.com Fast forward to 2019. Gabon and Ghana are not the poorest African countries but they are POOR. Gabon GDP is at about 8k/person, Ghana $2200 - this may not seem that shocking but let me tell you Ghana GDP per capita in NOMINAL terms was at 3 times that in 1982 ! Now Ireland has the 4rth highest GDP/capita in the world at $77,000. Hong Kong which is has corporate and income taxes of around 16% iirc - far lower than USA France UK etc 30%+ corporate tax and 45% income tax - has grown to 50k one of the highest in the world. Singapore same story. But GHANA. How do you go from being as wealthy as average european countries to become a 4rth world country? Only 2 ways: ethnic wars (poor in real wealth but rich in diversity) OR socialism/high regulations & corporate taxes. I think other than making it harder for businessmen - er people (there's a whole lot of women doing business in west africa I think - no cold winters = different culture women did not just stay at home half the year), the country also was overwhelmed by migrants especially from Sierra Leone & Liberia (the failed country built by freed american slaves) the places they used to raid for hundreds of years to pick up slaves and sell them. Idk maybe they felt guilty like the USA now? Well see the result... The OECD has a document about migration in the west african country: www.oecd.org "A country can not tax itself into wealth" Mainstreet is euphoric about the stock market. Tesla bulls are foaming at the mouth. Memories... Permabulls Warren Buffet & Charlie have been buying gold stocks as well as japanese trading firms all of them (Panic? Didn't have time to do their research?) after selling US banks & airlines. The USA will never go down they said. Hey they might be right. What will go down will the the SA not the U SA. Macro analysis has more elements than just monetary policies & unemployement. Migrations (in or out) as well as corporate tax and other will dictate what direction a country goes. Data analysis has shown that a country economic prosperity was almost entirely reliant, as well as directly correlated, to the top 5% of the country. And nowhere is safe (except maybe Monaco). Remember the example of Ghana. Inflation (2019) adjusted a per person GDP of $16,563 in 1982 (France: 29,000; UK: 26,650; Germany: 24,200; Ireland 16,314; Spain 13,850; South Korea 5485; Turkey 5000; China 757 LOL). A per person GDP in 2019 of $2223 down ripple percent (France: 40,471; UK: 42,146; Germany: 46,427; Ireland 80,300 gee; Spain 29,442; South Korea 33,500; Turkey 9,500; China 9,600 thanks state capitalism & SEZ). The USA, or what's left of it can, in the very real world, go down to absolute poverty. It is in the greatest bubble ever it's absolute insanity. Irrational is not a strong enough word for this market. Hysterical maybe. Really not that hard to invest long term. Look for the countries business friendly. Then go from macro to digging down aaaaand I don't know how to do this. Sounds boring. Learn or hire someone maybe. Maybe I would just buy a basket of slow growth diversified safe indexes in business friendly countries. If the usd or us indices start to violently go down in waves lasting days or weeks now that I know what to do. China which is holding the biggest usd ponzi bags has made no secret of its fears. And they have been dumping, and continue to dump. Am short USDCNH. Right now the USD bears are at ath, it's more shorted than it has been at least in years. I also have a long on usd against another currency. Even if very shorted it can go make a big move down before bouncing, but once it starts to bounce it can really go up forcing speculators to over, unless the central bank come out with a bazooka literally robbing money from the ignorant US public (that are overly joyful about it) and putting it in the pocket of guys like me. China, speculators, the FED, every one is selling (or increasing the available supply by printing same result). If the price keeps going down China could panic sell big chunks at once. To be convinced a new trend going up is / might be starting I'd want a strong green move or a bottom and not a tiny one. America will be a net exporter again! They are going to become a big net exporter of wealth. Thanks guys 💖
Long
by MrRenev
3
Pyramid scheme noos numero 131- Dan Lok, motivation success coach that preys on impressionable 20 yos, sued by real owner of "his" mansion 😏 *********************** Yikes. The self proclaimed "best selling author" and "world's #1 closing & influencer business strategist" that got into 6 figures debt and failed 13 business attempt in a row before "becoming a multi millionaire that now wants to help students find success", has been sued by the actual landlord of his mansion after failing to pay the - ahem - 35,000 monthly rent. The mentor migrated from Hong Kong to Canada early on, and soon his father would have to declare bankrupcy and would not be able to support him & his mother. And this is when he learn hard honest work. Or nothing at all and just followed dad footsteps. His 16 to 30 year old students are going to be so disappointed :( Maybe he can convince them to pay his rent? Now that would be hilarous. 2- BLM & Antifa gangs terrorizing the USA, al-Qaeda delighted, ISIS predictions make me look like a permabull 😳 *********************** I say this often, but imagine my surprise. An impressionable and not very bright security agent that was "peacefully protesting" (I cringe everytime I read or write this 😆) ran in the back of a man and kicked him in the back of the head, like the courageous & virteous hero he is. The man was made to sit by the "right side of history" BLM gang that ganged up on him after he defended a trans woman that they were assaulting. The media is silent obviously. Police said his condition was stable. Translation: he is on life support and might never wake up and if he does he'll be handicapped for life, but we don't want people to fight back and the situation to escalate. The mastermind attacker that was identified by 4chan said "wElL hE wUz raCisT sO wE hAd tO deFEnd OurSelVEs" (by hitting him from behind when he was sitting down and not hostile). A black man, another gullible 25 years old, probably brainwashed by the media and sneaky little politicians that whites are hunting down blacks and getting away with it, non ironically just EXECUTED a little 5 year old white boy. The creature defended itself with some gibberish along the lines of "well he was on my property duh he was very suspicious amaury live mattered". Some BLM supporters said they were happy about it. Even on non anonymous accounts. Nothing happened to them. And the media is silent as usual. Al-Qaeda is overjoyed with the US situation, is writting about it, and hope they can use the social issues in the USA to recruit ... you know it already, as usual gullible young (mostly) men 15 to 30. Here are all the ages of the 911 terrorists: 33 22 28 22 25 23 24 22 20 22 29 26 24 25 20 26 20 24 21. Something wrong with human brain development. For its part ISIS, that wants to establish a racially pure 4rth reich-caliphate where white women will be sex slaves "just like in the good old days" and blacks cotton pickers, is seriously pissing itself, no other way to put it. Good job big brain commies you are even making racists happy in Iraq. This is pretty much what the Islamic State is saying, from one of their editorial in my own words: "Just like the non-believer infidel dogs scoffled at the chinese virus and did not expect it to spread and did not prepare, they are now studying the US situation (god's punishment) and not preparing for it, because the US situation in that country will explode we have seen nothing yet and it will also spread to the entire world. Growth is gone, company bankrupcies are spreading, unemployement crime and poverty are spreading and there is not any hope this nightmare will end. Other countries are as weakened as the US by the way they handled the pandemic as well as years of economic social & political ills that have eaten them away (gee they got a point). And once the unfaithful countries will burn to the ground they will stay away from the region and the true muslims will finally be able to rid the arab world of the tyrans (and establish a New World Order 😉)." 3- Greece-Turkey migrant & border crisis: France sends warships. "Covid Hoax" Belarus: NATO troops at border 🚢 *********************** The mainstream media just whined that Greece sent 1,000 migrant away to the open sea. So they have migrant issues, border issues, plans were "discovered": Turkey war plans against Greece. There also have been some clashes, and recently Turkey has been exploring Oil in contested sea. France has taken the side of Greece, and sent a few ships & planes. The main subject is the border dispute but hordes of migrants are also part of it, and I think the root. A few months ago Turkey even threatened Europe they'd let millions in if they did not receive money. Migrant will forever keep coming to Europe as long as the GDP per capita will be higher and they will be benefits. What do you expect "come here we offer free money". West africa has 120 mouths to feed for 60 workers while Europe is something like 60 mouths to feed for 100 workers. So poor countries will stay poor and keep making 10 babies and will keep migrating... It never worked and comes with its issues so Europe and NA will collapse of itself anyway, and that will solve it. There is also an investigation after Greek troop are suspected to have shot some migrants. The kills happened after Turkey let migrants flood in Europe back in March when they threatened Europe for money as I said. It all started when Morocco and Lybia closed the gates a while ago, leaving Turkey as the only entry point to Europe (for those that don't want to end up as fish food). The UK is also pretty pissed at France that keeps throwing boats of migrants to them. Nice powder keg. The Soviet Union never had any migrant issues... Well they did by Emigrants, not Immigrants. 4- France "socialist" Jean-Pierre Chevènement: "Our society is falling apart and I am worried for the republic" 📉 *********************** A retired politician that served as french minister several times, for different functions, member of the socialist party (France left) gave an interview recently. He is rather satisfied of the comeback of sovereignty (socialist, not marxist, and by the way even George Soros is pro sovereignty oh well officially he is). JPC calls himself a republican. Sight, semantics. He says migrants should not be thrown away and be given a chance, but at the same time they have to integrate to the republic (not burn its flags and spit on policemen). Oh boy, the socialist from the 90s 2000s is a white supremacist! I remember seing him down the street back around 2000, every one was polite, he did not have plenty of guards. He'd probably get stabbed in the back today, how times have changed... The french socialist party has really gone to crap, I mean popularity wise. A decade ago the lame president wanted to force "the rich" to pay 75% income tax or more, and had a confiscation tax (socialist France already has a wealth tax but this was bonus), because he does not understand that currency is not the same as purchasing power. By the way the whole world already has a wealth tax around 3%, it is called inflation. Their results are not as bad as the UK labor camp, maybe they'll learn a lesson and not go full extreme. JPC says that tribalism is threatening the republic, and society is divided and more and more violent (no mention of media & migrants). The ACTUAL SOCIALIST (not megacorp globalist socialist) says that it is worrying and saddening that PATRIOTISM is disappearing in France, and that we can not have civility (an important french value) if there is no PATRIOTISM. Which is necessary for the country to regain its (tech & industry) independance. Note from me: some countries have come to rely a bit too much on foreign country for industry needs - industry is the real wealth creator - and only rely on services. Global trade is nice but full reliance is stupid and prices will be paid. He condemns the removal of statues and says France should not bow down to intimidation from "decolonial" and "racialised" gangs. There is more in the article but then it differs from the global subject and don't want to write a book. Lmao there is a good one "Those that sucked the SOS racism cow udder back then did not go far". Ye go figure. The communist party in France does not support these clowns (the "peaceful protestors"), not sure about the joke that is now the socialist party, the right and far right don't, not sure about the cattering center. Plus France already knows socialism well, and it has not been ponzi scheming students for decades, and it has not been abandonning people on the ground in front of hospitals, literally letting them die in agony because "sry can't afford it", the french are always striking and complaining but they don't have a reason to be that mad. I don't think the country will burn, but there are challenges. Might see Frexit in not too long. Maybe the end of the Euro... Germany gains so much from it, France loses so much. 5- Goldbugs euphoric that Warren Buffet sold banking stocks & bought some gold stocks: The Gates Are Open 💸 *********************** Berkshire bought gold stocks with some pocket change, a mere 500 million, and also sold alot of banking stocks. Goldbugs are very happy. One reason it allows the hedge fund sheeps to start buying gold & silver. If the price goes down they can always say "well Warren did it". Years ago Buffet & Munger had the biggest silver position in the world, 129 million ounces I heard. So if they started buying and this is a possibility... There could be some big buying. Gold is above $2000 once again, but I think we might still be in B. Will short if the price goes under B(min) and will buy if we go above A high. If you calculate gold inflation adjusted price compared to the start of the XXth century, it comes to $500/oz. Compared to GDP, MZM, M1/M2, the world money supply, world pop, etc you can get to pretty interesting numbers. World pop more than quadrupled in the last 100 years, so brought to the population ignoring the change in supply, that's $2000 gold here. Then add the gdp per capita immense growth, not Venezuela thought, they're at -80% already, probably even lower. Haha. Nice social programs. Ok the world gdp grew more than 25 fold, so that's at least $12,500 gold ounce. I don't think the supply grew much. There are clowns saying "bUt gOlD iN thE sEa" sad. Not even going to argue about the economics or logic of it. Just going to laugh and be sarcastic about it. Remember when for thousands of years there were big open mines in particular in west africa and the price did not fall? Remember ancient days when people could just look down and pick up gold nuggets and price did not just go to zero? Remember the US gold rush with rivers flowing with gold and people picking it up and the price remained strong? Remember when we just all completely gave up gold because it is all around us, which is never? 6- China full of permabears, conspiracy theories: fear of ending up behind a Financial Iron Curtain (like Iran) *********************** Remember the biggest USD bagholder in the world, China, that was in the denial stage recently but wisely reduced its risk by buying gold? They are between anxious and panicked now. There are not hiding it anymore. No more masks, no more lies. They bought into the biggest ponzi scheme in history. They worked hard for billions of hours and gave real things to fatmericans. And what did they get for it? Worthless magic bean money 😂 A "promise". A promise that "ye sure one day we'll provide you with goods for this". Their explosive growth has ended. They really thought communism was a big success. They have far higher inequality that EU(28) and even higher inequality than corporate infested america. They got very hopeful when they became less poor than African countries, and when growth accelerated (because of special economic zones) they got real euphoric. This was the top. They have been hit in the face with a big slowdown, and now have all the old problems (but not the wealth) of the west. Oh no so close. Their gdp per capita reached a whooping $10,000/capita and they actually thought they'd become a rich country. Funny. Now they are doubling down on communism, sending Uyghurs to concentration camps, destroying statues of Buddha (they must be racist statues). Oh boy. Only 2 things have fueled their growth: - NON COMMUNIST SPECIAL ECONOMIST ZONES WHERE LIBERAL FREE TRADE IS ALLOWED (and btw tax rates are at most 20% or less) - APPLE SWEAT SHOPS (etc) Trump stated on twitter I think, that he wanted to fight income inequality. Dum dums acted surprised like this is not what he has done. And basically this + everything else mean making the USA a net exporter again or at least not a ponzi schemer. Bringing jobs back to the US (Apple & Google etc are very mad they might not got their cheap slaves in suicide net surrounded factories). Well and so on. So China would not only lose its main source of income because that's all this garbage regime can do, but they would also lose their lifesavings if the USA decide to just exit scam :) Rip. Politicians and economists (the guys that are always wrong) have been publicly discussing their fears of the USA freezing their bags, and cucking them out of the dollar world order. Oh my USDCNH is sh***ing itself while I type, it is going below all my levels. Mentionned it in my "plan for the week" idea. Here it goes. It's already far for me to chase H1 I want a bigger pullback otherwise no go. It's going to zero.
by MrRenev
6