USDCHF: Bullish Move Confirmed 🇺🇸🇨🇭
It looks like a local correctional movement is over on USDCHF
and the pair is returning to a bullish trend.
The release of the today's US fundamentals made the pair
violate a resistance line of a narrow consolidation range on an hourly.
The price will most likely go up to 0.9007 level.
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Usdchfsignals
USDCHF Short-term Channel Up targeting 0.88120The USDCHF pair is following very accurately our September 17 projection (see chart below) and is already half-way through our 0.90500 Target:
As mentioned then that was a long-term bottom buy opportunity, but that doesn't mean shorter ones don't exist on the lower time-frames. On this chart, we've identified one on the 4H time-frame where the price got rejected at the top of the October Channel Up and pulled back to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
This resembles the October 08 0.382 Fib rejection, which was also contained above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and resumed the uptrend all the way to the -0.236 Fib extension. As a result, our short-term Target is 0.88120.
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USDCHF Great long-term bottom buy opportunity.The USDCHF pair is trading considerably below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since July 04 2024, as it was on a major 5-month Bearish Leg following the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) peak and rejection on May 01.
The 1D MACD however has formed its 2nd straight Bullish Cross and last time that took place was on January 04 2024, right after the pair's bottom from the 2023 Bearish Leg.
As a result, we treat the current levels as the most optimal long-term buy opportunity for the year, targeting again a potential 1W MA200 contact at 0.90500.
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USDCHF Strong long-term bullish wave expected.The USDCHF pair followed almost perfectly our projected course last time we made an analysis on it (June 20, see chart below), as after a 1.5 Fibonacci rebound, it resumed the downtrend and hit our 0.8700 Target:
Having completed a 1D MACD Bullish Cross, on the same level as the January 04 2024 one, we view the recent rebound as the start of the new Bullish Leg towards the 1W MA200 (red trend-line).
As you can see, we've been basically within a wide but sideways structure for more than one year and the symmetry between the October - December 2023 Leg is very high with May - August 2024. Even the 1D MACD patterns are very similar.
As a result, we turn bullish on USDCHF again on a 0.9100 Target, just below the 1W MA200, which is the technical long-term Resistance.
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USDCHF Sell opportunity on perfect symmetry.The USDCHF pair broke this week below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the firs time since March 14 and is extending a downtrend that started on the May 01 2024 Top, a rejection on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line).
The last time we had a similar (near) rejection was on the October 03 2023 Top, which also initiated a downtrend. That structure targeted the 1.5 and 2.5 Fibonacci extension levels in succession.
With the 1D RSI sequences among the two fractals showing tight symmetry, we see now the final sell opportunity to target the 2.5 Fib. Our Target is at 0.87000 (within Support 1 and Fib 2.5).
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USDCHF Channel Up intact. Aim higher.The USDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the December 28 2023 Low. In the past 2 weeks, it has been forming its 2nd Bearish Leg that almost touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been supporting since February 02.
As long as we close 1D candles above it, we stay bullish, targeting 0.94200 (marginally below Resistance 2). Since however the recent Higher High was priced just below Resistance 1 (the October 03 2023 High), we will turn bearish (and take the buy's loss) if the pair closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is what happened on November 14 2023. In that case, our Target will be 0.87350 (Support 1).
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USDCHF Struggling on the 1W MA50. Long-term bullish above it.The USDCHF pair is on very critical crossroads as for the past 5 weeks it has been testing the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) but has so far failed to close a 1W candle above it. Going back to late September 2023, we can see that the 1W MA50 has been again tested for successive weeks, but again failed to close a candle above it. In fact the last time it did was back on the week of October 31 2022, which was during the previous Top on the Lower Highs trend-line of the 8-year Bearish Megaphone pattern.
As a result, as long as the pair fails to close that weekly candle above the 1W MA50, we 'have' to stay bearish on the medium-term, targeting just above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 0.8500.
If however we do get that 1W closing above the 1W MA50 delivered, we will turn bullish long-term, despite the presence of the Inner Lower Highs and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), as in early 2021, and target the top of the Bearish Megaphone at 0.97000.
Notice that this scenario attracts stronger probabilities as the 1W RSI has been on a Bullish Divergence from oversold territory since the December 25 2023 Low. This Divergence is similar to the bottom formed on the January 04 2021 candle.
Observe also how efficiently the Sine Waves have grasped the Tops and Bottoms of this Bearish Megaphone. Right now they show we are on a bottom formation.
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USDCHF Is it experiencing a pattern change?The USDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the August 11 2022 Low. Such a long-term pattern is difficult to break but according to the 1D MACD and RSI indicators, the pair may be experiencing a pattern change.
As you can see, the 1D MACD is about to form a Bullish Cross, the lowest since July 27, which was soon after the last Lower Low on the Channel Down. Along with the fact that the 1D RSI breached through the 30.00 oversold barrier and rebounded exactly on the same level as the July 13 Low, we have a strong case for a new bottom, which is not consistent with a Channel Down Lower Low.
As a result a new Channel Up (dotted lines) may be emerging and our trading plan involves buying now at the (potential) Higher Low and targeting the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the long-term Channel Down at 0.91175, which is also Resistance 1.
If on the other hand Support 1 (0.85500) breaks, we will take the loss on the buy and go short instead, targeting the bottom of the Channel Down at 0.81250, which is also the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
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USDCHF Stuck within the 1D MA50 - MA100. Break-out trade.The USDCHF pair is pulling back after making nearly a Lower High on the long-term Channel Down and hit last hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Today it is testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Resistance, so the closing of the 1D candle either way will most likely decide the next trend.
Above the 1D MA50, we will buy, targeting 0.94000 (Channel Up Higher High and Resistance 2). Below the 1D MA100, we will quick sell, targeting 0.88000 (Channel Up bottom).
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USDCHF: Top-Down Analysis & Bullish Outlook Explained 🇺🇸🇨🇭
USDCHF is trading in a strong bullish trend.
After the price set a new higher high on a daily,
it retraced to a key horizontal support.
Analyzing the reaction of the price to that, I have spotted a bullish breakout
of a resistance line of a falling wedge pattern.
It is an important sign of strength of the buyers.
The market will most likely resume growth next week.
Goals: 0.917 / 0.9195
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USDCHF Channel Up prevailing for now. Buy the dip.The USDCHF pair broke last week above the 1 year Channel Down and closed above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since November 09 2022. The price action has now completed five 1D candles above the 1D MA100 and the pattern that seems to be prevailing is a Channel Up (blue).
With the 1D RSI hit 67.00, almost turning overbought, so our intension is to wait for a Higher Lows (dashed trend-line) pull-back and buy the dip, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 0.9000.
If the price closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we will take the loss and turn bearish instead long-term. The target will be 0.83650 representing a -4.73% decline from the 1D MA50, which has taken place another 3 times already within this long-term Channel Down.
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USDCHF Approaching the 1D MA50 for the optimal sell entry.The USDCHF pair made a strong rejection near the top of the Channel Down pattern and hit our 0.88250 sell target as illustrated on our analysis 2 months ago (see chart below):
The price is now rising again, after nearly the -0.5 Fibonacci extension for a Lower Low (same as the May 04 Lower Low). The most optimal sell entry is within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. That is located exactly at the top of the Channel Down. We will take that opportunity to sell and target 0.8300 (again near the -0.5 Fibonacci extension).
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USD/CHFThe possible scenario that I deduced with elliott wave analysis is on the graph.
first a small rise and a small fall ... then a big wave that will bring big returns. the target of the last wave is the first target point. In the continuation of the movement, an update can be made by setting new targets (HIGHER?)
USDCHF Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDCHF Bullish above the 1D MA50, bearish below it.The USDCHF pair is trading within a Channel Down pattern since late November and it currently above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As long as 1D candles close above it (1D MA50), we will stay bullish and target slightly below the 0.618 Fibonacci extension at 0.91850. A 1D candle close below it, will be a bearish break-out for us, targeting the Channel's recent Low at 0.88250.
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USDCHF Top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDCHF Channel Down rejection on the 4H MA50. Sell signal.The USDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since March 08 High, with a Diverging Lower Lows trend-line supporting on the April 13 Low. For the past three days however, the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has been rejecting the price. That has been the standard short-term Resistance since March 22, so almost a full month.
As a result, it is more likely to see a bearish continuation within the Channel Down, targeting the Lower Lows again at 0.87890. This would complete a -2.41% drop similar to March 23, as the two fractals are quite identical, especially in terms on RSI.
If the price closes a 4H candle above the Channel Down though (0.236 Fibonacci), we will turn bullish instead and target first the 0.382 Fib (0.90835) and the 0.5 Fib (0.91500) in extension on a possible contact with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
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USDCHF Channel Down 1DMA50 rejection but can transition sidewaysThe USDCHF pair has been trading within a perfect Channel Down pattern since the November 30 2022 High. On Monday we had a strong rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and that should start the next bearish leg towards the Channel's Lower Low. This time however, if the 0.90625 February 02 Low doesn't break, we may see the pair turn sideways as the blue range shown on the chart (0.9090 - 0.93700) has been a high volatility region for more than 5 months (October 2021 - mid March 2022). Of course in order for that to materialize, we need a 1D candle close above the 1D MA50, which hasn't been done since November 07 2022.
Until then, every Lower High rejection is a sell opportunity towards 0.90200 (Support 1) and if broken then 0.89260 (Support 2). Notice how the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) is comfortably located at the top of the range. Only a 1D candle close above it can turn the pair bullish towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
An indicator that supports this sideways transition to the range is the 1D RSI which in contrast to the price's Channel Down, it has been within a Channel Up since November 11, hence a Bullish Divergence.
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USDCHF 1D Death Cross can be bullish short-termThe USDCHF pair confirmed our bearish signal more than a month ago and broke below the 1D MA50 (blue), 1D MA200 (orange) and 1W MA100 (red trend-line) in succession. While at this, it broke below both Higher Lows trend-lines that started on the January 06 2021 market bottom, thus confirming the long-term shift from bullish to bearish.
The emerging 1D Death Cross though (MA50 crossing below the MA200), while a long-term bearish formation, it can be bullish short-term. The reason is that while the price has been on Lower Lows, the 1D RSI is a Higher Lows i.e. a Bullish Divergence. Since the Jan 06 bottom, the two similar RSI Bullish Divergencies, ended up with rebounds.
Even during the last registered 1D Death Cross, the pair had again a 1D RSI Bullish Divergence that made a short/ medium-term rebound above the 1D MA200 and the previous Lower High and resumed the downtrend after it closed below the 1W MA100 again.
As a result, unless we make a break below last week's low, we are short-term bullish on the USDCHF, targeting the 1D MA200 and then turn bearish again. If however we break below the recent Low first, we will change back to selling and target the lower Supports in succession: 0.90900, 0.89300 and 0.87600.
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