EURUSD to make a bullish breakout after the Fed.On Wednesday the Fed will announce the new rate and the anticipation of this event largely explains the recent consolidation of EURUSD.
Since the November 22nd bottom, it has turned sideways around the MA50 (4h), failing to cross above the MA200 (4h), which is the main Resistance of the bearish wave since October 1st.
The July-October 2023 bearish wave was under a similar consolidation but eventually broke to the upside and hit the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.08700 (the 0.618 Fibonacci level).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) has been rising inside a Channel Up, which is a bullish divergence also very much like the October 2023 bottom.
Please like, follow and comment!!
USD
USDCAD BULLISH TO $1.42 (UPDATE)
What did I tell you all 3 days ago? Wave III has completed, so we should expect a retracement down towards Wave IV. USDCAD has dropped 150 PIPS towards our supply zone, so well done if you caught short term sells!
Price is now rejecting our supply zone with bullish momentum, so you can start looking to getting into buys towards major Wave V & major Wave Y.
USDCAD BULLISH TO $1.42 (UPDATE)Remember my USDCAD analysis posted 3 weeks ago? Market moved exactly how I said it would. We saw Wave III create its top, which led to sellers coming in & pushing price down towards our Wave IV zone.
Bulls came back in rejecting our Wave IV zone & now running 115 PIPS in profit towards our Wave V (Major Wave Y) target!
Short-Term Targets for Gold After Breaching $2,650 Short-Term Targets for Gold After Breaching $2,650
1. Immediate Downside Targets:
$2,600: Minor support level; likely to be tested soon.
$2,575–$2,550: Stronger support zone; potential area for profit-taking or reversal.
$2,500: If momentum remains bearish, this could be the extended target.
1. Entry Point:
Enter a sell position $2,650
2. Profit Targets:
First Target (T1): $2,600 (close part of the position).
Second Target (T2): $2,575.
Final Target (T3): $2,550 (full exit unless trend remains strong).
3. Stop-Loss:
Place a stop-loss just above $2,660–$2,670 to protect against a false breakout or rebound.
Risk Management
Avoid over-leveraging; short-term gold movements can be volatile. CAPITALCOM:GOLD
EURUSD: Short-term trade Before Retail SalesHello Traders,
Due to longer term Bearish Trend in the pair I'm more with the Red Path, However, we have to follow the market!
Any Breaks below the channel and 1.0500, may head the price to 1.0468.
Any Breaks over the zone, could make us see the 1.0577.
We should close our trader before Retail Sales release on Tuesday.
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Haven't had time to update recently as I've been extremely busy, but either way Gold has been paying us in the background!
We got that rejection from Wave 2 & a huge melt back down again towards the bottom of this 'Flat Correction' channel which I called for you all. Now waiting on Wave 3 to make its huge move down📉
Gold is indeed showing a bullish trend, Gold is indeed showing a short-term bullish trend, supported by both technical and macroeconomic factors. Here’s an overview:
Current Market Dynamics
1. Price Levels:
Gold is trading around $2,658 per ounce, near its recent highs. This sustained price indicates strong market demand.
2. Technical Indicators:
Support Levels: Gold has held above key support at $2,650, reinforcing bullish momentum.
Resistance Levels: If this trend continues, gold is likely to test resistance around $2,700 and move higher.
3. Market Drivers:
A weaker U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties are key factors driving gold’s demand as a safe-haven asset.
Central banks' continued gold purchases are providing strong underlying support.
Short-Term Projections
If the bullish trend persists, analysts project:
A move toward $2,700–$2,800 in the coming weeks.
Potential new highs if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable.
Key Risks
A break below $2,650 could lead to a pullback.
External factors, such as Federal Reserve policy announcements, may influence short-term volatility.
In summary, gold’s short-term outlook remains positive, with strong indicators pointing toward further gains. However, traders should watch for potential reversals if key support levels are breached. CAPITALCOM:GOLD
USDCAD, Breakout or fake fakeout? USDCAD / 1D
Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
The market shows strong bullish momentum, breaking through key resistance levels and signaling a potential continuation to the upside. However, The price is rejecting the Previous all-time high. Hence, instead of jumping in at current levels, I recommend waiting for a pullback into the breakout zone for a more strategic entry.
If the pullback holds and buying confirms, the next leg higher could target:
First Resistance: Immediate levels formed during prior consolidation.
Stay disciplined, wait for the market to come to you, and trade with confidence!
Trade safely,
Trader Leo.
USDCAD, Breakout and follow throughUSDCAD / 1D
Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
The market shows strong bullish momentum, breaking through key resistance levels and signaling a potential continuation to the upside. However, The price is rejecting the Previous all-time high. Hence, instead of jumping in at current levels, I recommend waiting for a pullback into the breakout zone for a more strategic entry.
If the pullback holds and buying confirms, the next leg higher could target:
First Resistance: Immediate levels formed during prior consolidation.
Stay disciplined, wait for the market to come to you, and trade with confidence!
Trade safely,
Trader Leo.
EURUSD Bottom formation in progress. Strong Buy.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a nearly 2-year Channel Down. Being below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since October 02 2024, this is technically still the pattern's Bearish Leg.
However, having bottomed on November 22 and transitioned into a (dotted) Channel Up, this is the technical bottom formation of the long-term Channel Down and the rise following a 1D MACD Bullish Cross from such a low level (the lowest in 2 years), confirms that.
The similarities with both previous bottom formations (September - October 2023 and February - March 2023) are obvious, all of them triple bottomed before rebounding above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, buying now and targeting 1.08765 (Fib 0.618) is an excellent long-term trade in terms of R/R.
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NAS100 - Nasdaq, the only green index last week!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zones, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. The valid failure of the previous ATH will provide the conditions for the continuation of the rise of this index.
The Economist predicts that as 2025 approaches, the U.S. economy is in a highly favorable position. It expects a soft economic landing in the upcoming year, meaning the U.S. will successfully reduce inflation to its 2% target without harming economic growth. While analysts previously forecasted a recession for the U.S., Washington now stands out as the only major economy whose output exceeds pre-pandemic trends.
This year, the Nasdaq index has significantly outperformed other major U.S. stock market indices. The primary reason is the heavy weighting of tech stocks in the index. Technology stocks, particularly the “Big Seven” tech giants, have seen remarkable growth due to the AI revolution and market optimism.On the other hand, the Dow Jones index, which is more focused on industrial stocks, has lagged behind Nasdaq despite notable gains.
The United States is preparing new restrictions on AI chips to block China’s indirect access to this technology. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, these restrictions aim to prevent China from using hidden pathways to obtain AI chips. Sources familiar with the plan revealed that the U.S. intends to hold companies like Google and Microsoft accountable for managing access to advanced AI chips.
The most significant economic event this week is the Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of 2024, set to be announced on Wednesday. Markets are already anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut, but attention will focus on the Fed’s policy statement and Jerome Powell’s remarks during the press conference. Traders will look for clues about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook for the upcoming year. Additionally, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, which could have a global market impact.
Key economic data on American consumer health will also be released this week. On Tuesday, the November retail sales report will provide fresh insights into consumer behavior during the holiday season. Moreover, on Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—a key inflation metric closely watched by the Fed—will be released, potentially clarifying the direction of future monetary policy.
Other important economic data include the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and the S&P Global PMI leading index, both set for release on Monday. On Thursday, critical figures such as the final Q3 GDP growth rate, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, November existing home sales, and weekly jobless claims will also be published.
Analysts expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this week, but the pace of rate cuts in 2025 is expected to be slow. Due to sticky inflation and some inflationary policies from Donald Trump, economists anticipate only three rate cuts in 2025.
The U.S. dollar has performed impressively this year, supported by the country’s economic conditions. However, Morgan Stanley analysts, including David Adams, believe buying the dollar at this point may be a mistake, as there is a downside risk for the currency. Based on their discussions, many investors expect the dollar index to rise further. Morgan Stanley argues that positive news is already fully priced into the dollar and that markets may be overestimating the speed, scope, and impact of economic measures.
Potential bullish bounce for the Cable?The price is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.2547
1st Support: 1.2329
1st Resistance: 1.2734
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal?USD/JPY is rising towards pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 154.85
1st Support: 151.56
1st Resistance: 157.65
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Heading into overlap resistance?WTI oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 73.08
1st Support: 66.98
1st Resistance: 78.05
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?USD/ZAR is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 18.01025
1st Support: 17.3635
1st Resistance: 18.2794
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.