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US100 18.992.0 +2.52% MID-WEEK MULTI TF ANALYSISHELLO TRADERS Hope everyone is doing great 📌 A look at NAS 100 & S&P500 from HTF - MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS NAS100 DAILY TF * We started the week on some BULLISH runs into a bearish BB. * Entering the premium zone looking for rejection of this -BB. * NAS100 currently taking LQ, looking for that internal range LQ to be taken(+OB). * We are entering discount price looking for a bullish continuation long term on Nasdaq but intraday some shorts could be profitable. * With PO3 looking for THURSDAY TO REVERSE for th week. NAS 100 4H TF * The week to opened Bullish into the 4h FVG + OB because our HTF BIAS (PO3) on D & W looking for possible reversals before we continue higher. * looking for short positions OPPORTUNITIES. * We will see what does the market dish. * On the 4 hourly ERL > IRL. S&P500 4H TF * sentiment stays the same we still bullish, running into higher tf pd arrays. US100 1H TF * STRONG rally with the bulls, strong momentum to the upside. * The is a 1H FVG, this is where i would look for short entries this week. * Should this PD ARRAY hold will be short for the NASDAQ * BASED on the price action served this week. But we might just reverse some where might as well be in these FVG prices S&P 500 1H TF * sentiment stays the same we still bullish, running into higher tf pd arrays HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK. SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤ LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by PULEMokhothu
4
Dow Jones Index (US30): Detailed Support and Resistance Analysis Here is my latest structure analysis and important key support and resistance levels to pay close attention to. Vertical Structures Vertical Resistance 1: Rising trend line Horizontal Structures Support 1: 38250 - 38550 area Support 2: 38015 - 38105 area Resistance 1: 39500 - 39700 area Resistance 2: 39800 - 39960 area Resistance 3: 40900 - 41415 area Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
BLACKBULL:US30Short
by VasilyTrader
1
S&P bulls return in the game; still some work to doLast week, buyers regained control on the daily timeframe, filling the gap from Monday, August 5th, and closing the week at the high. While this was a strong display of power, I would approach it with caution for the following reasons: 1. The market is currently in a weekly consolidation phase. We've already seen how strongly the bears defend their control on the weekly timeframe (as evidenced by the last week of July), so this should not be disregarded. 2. The magnitude of Wednesday’s bearish candle demonstrates how easily the bears can move the price when they feel weakness 3. While all major sectors closed week green, none has managed to close above previous week high. Most of them are in a weekly consolidation, which signifies genuine market weakness. To sum it up, while it's highly likely that the bulls will be able to confirm a weekly low ( 510.3 ) in the next days, it's uncertain whether they will be able to maintain their position for long. I would definitely wait to see the week’s close before considering a “buy.” Ideally, the bulls should fill the gap from Friday, August 2nd, and establish some value above 534 . If this doesn't happen and we see a strong price rejection, it would confirm bearish control. The upcoming week is packed with economic data, which could fuel momentum for either side.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
Dow Jones Index (#US30): Your Trading Plan Explained Dow Jones is currently stuck on a key daily/intraday horizontal resistance. The price is trading within a narrow range on that on a 4H time frame. Your confirmation to sell the Index will be a bearish breakout of the support of the range. A 4H candle close below 39325 will confirm the violation. A bearish continuation will be expected to 38890 then. Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the underlined blue resistance will push the market higher. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
BLACKBULL:US30Short
by VasilyTrader
3
S&P500 crashing. Will it benefit from a September RATE CUT??The S&P500 index (SPX, illustrated by the blue trend-line) has been under heavy selling pressure in the past 3 weeks and a September Fed Rate Cut is already priced at 95%. But will the index benefit from such action? A detailed look into the past 35 years of recorded Yield Curve (US10Y-US02Y) price action, shows that when it flattens and rebounds, the Fed steps in and cuts the interest rates (orange trend-line). As you see on that 1M chart though, this hasn't always been beneficial for stocks as especially for September 2007 and January 2001, it took place parallel to the Housing and Dotcom Crises. The Inflation Rate (black trend-line) however seems to be at a low level that is consistent with market bottoms and not tops. As a result, it appears that it is more likely we are in a curve reversal that is consistent with bull trend continuation for the stock market, after short-term corrections, in our opinion either post June 2019 (ignore the COVID crash, which is a once in 100 years non-technical event) or pre-2000. So to answer the original question, we believe there are more probabilities that a September rate cut will do more good to the stock market than harm. Just as a side-note, based on this chart, our sentiment is that the current AI-led rally will be similar to the internet rally of the mid-90s that eventually led to the Dotcom crash of 2000. Your thoughts? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
2
S&P weekly consolidation in progress; bears prove controlLast week was marked by hectic price action in both directions. Bulls failed to set a daily low for two consecutive days (Monday-Tuesday), which logically led to a strong bearish attack. Then something peculiar happened – the price pivoted near the previous low and went up during the overnight session. The market opened with a huge gap on Wednesday, held the open, and even managed to rally further in the regular session. I can only imagine how many short traders, who had done everything right, suffered from this. This price action also confused many long traders, including myself, by making us believe that the weekly consolidation was coming to an end. But Thursday turned the board 180 degrees again with a psychotic bearish move, wiping out more than 2% of the market value. Again, as with the bullish rally, there was no obvious trigger unless you believe that PMI data could wield such importance. At this point, we have the following disposition: 1. The market is still in a weekly uptrend. Until sellers take down the previous major low (491), nothing changes in this regard. 2. Bears have proved strong control over the weekly timeframe. We should respect this. 3. Bears were also able to start monthly consolidation, another sign of their strength. All in all, I wouldn’t consider any long-term “buys” until bulls manage to set a convincing weekly low, even then with caution. Shorting is an option but is very tricky in light of what happened last week. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by hermes_trisme
SPX500 to continue in the downward move?US500 - 24H expiry Traded to the lowest level in 12 weeks. We have a 78.6% Fibonacci pullback level of 5136 from 4930 to 5680. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs. We look to set shorts at our bespoke indicator level (5273). We look to Sell at 5273 (stop at 5321) Our profit targets will be 5150 and 5136 Resistance: 5273 / 5338 / 5404 Support: 5175 / 5136 / 5091 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
VIX $2.9 Trillion wiped on recession fears. Is the worst over?The much lower than expected Nonfarm Payrolls today (114k against a 176k forecast) amplified the global recession concerns and wiped out $2.9 trillion from the stock markets, making it the worst day since the 2020 COVID crash. With Nasdaq down almost -12% from its recent peak, investors are more or less convinced of the necessity of a September Fed Rate cut in order to restore confidence in the market. But is the worst over yet? Well, lets take a look at the Volatility Index (VIX), which last time we analyzed it (April 16, see chart below), helped us take the most optimal buy entry on the stock market as it got rejected right at the top of its 10-month Channel Down: Today VIX was up almost +90% from its daily Low, displaying enormous market volatility. It is useful in times like these to look at the multi-year price action in order to keep an objective technical perspective. As this 1W chart shows, a VIX price this high is a rare feat since the 2008 Housing Crisis. In fact the break-out above the Channel Down resembles the Highs of December 24 2018 and October 13 2014 (blue circles). Those that been the lowest levels of alerts on the VIX scale, with the medium ones being the orange circles and the worst ones being the red (only happened twice: October 20 2008 and the COVID crash of March 16 2020). At the same time, the 1W RSI just broke above the 70.00 Overbought barrier, which has only happened another 6 times since the 2008 Housing Crisis. It is easy to understand as a result, that this VIX spike has more chances to be corrected in the coming weeks than ending up in a larger stock market correction. On our current chart, the stock market is represented by the S&P500 (black trend-line). As you can see, a strong recovery (green Channel Up) followed after the blue VIX peaks. In the event however that this turns out to be an orange VIX peak next week, the S&P500 is expected to start recovering within 4-6 weeks. Which case do you think it will be? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIX
by TradingShot
3
US500, NASDAQ at KEY level The price is currently at a key level, testing both support and the trendline. 1. Bearish Scenario (Breakdown): - If the price breaks below the support level, it may indicate the beginning of an ABC correction in the Elliott Wave pattern. - Action: Open a SHORT position with a smaller lot size. - If the price then retests the broken support (now acting as resistance), you should open another SHORT position with a larger lot size. - Target Levels: The price could initially drop to 5300 and potentially further to 4930. 2. Bullish Scenario (Support Holds): - If the support holds and you observe bullish price action (e.g., long needles at the bottom of the candles), open a LONG position. - Action: If the price forms a higher high and a higher low, or breaks above the resistance at 5560 and retests it, you can add to your LONG position. Fundamental: Recently, a technology crisis impacted Microsoft and several other companies' stocks. However, it appears that they have managed the situation effectively, suggesting a potential price increase. Despite this, the Volatility Index (VIX) keeps increasing, indicating persistent fear among investors. As a result, there is an equal 50/50 chance of prices moving either up or down.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by tselmegFOREX
S&P weekly consolidation ongoing; uptrend still intactLast week began with a bull rally that was very short-lived. Sellers stepped in, driving the price down through the last consolidation (and potential support) zone. By the end of the week, the market experienced a 180-degree shift in sentiment, with Friday closing with a bullish inside candle. Currently, we have the following disposition: 1. The price is in an uptrend on the weekly chart, indicating that long-term buyers still maintain control. 2. The daily chart shows a downtrend, but so far, sellers have only managed to retrace 50% of the previous green wave. 3. There is an unfilled gap from Wednesday, the 24th. If bulls can fill this gap this week, it will demonstrate their strength. From a fundamental perspective, there was no significant negative news. On the contrary, the inflation data was quite positive, and earnings were mostly decent, except for TSLA. This suggests that the current downtrend is just a controlled weekly consolidation. Therefore, we should look for a weekly higher low to enter LONG positions to capitalize on the continuation of the weekly uptrend. A lot will depend on the Big Tech earnings reports coming out this week, but so far, there is no reason to expect negative surprises. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
S&P500 Huge rebound on former 2year ChannelUp! New Highs coming!The S&P500 index (SPX) reached and held last week the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the former 2-year Channel Up pattern that was the vessel of market recovery from the 2022 inflation crisis. The results of holding this line have been immediate as this week is so far deep into green and is about to recover all losses sustained from the previous 1W candle. At the same time it is a Higher Low on the (dashed) 9-month Channel Up. Those two developments open the way for a new mega-bullish pattern that has the Support of its former one. As long as the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) remains intact, we still look towards a new Higher High, targeting 6200, which may be a modest Target since it is quite below the +28.56% mark, which is the rise that the previous Bullish Leg had. So far all major long-term rallies since the October 2022 bottom have been around +30%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
2
Bearish reversal of 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?S&P500 (US500) is rising towards the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which is a pullback support. Pivot: 5,505.37 1st Support: 5,410.33 1st Resistance: 5,576.08 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Short
by ICmarkets
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook – A week that has it allIt’s a huge week ahead by way of event risk for traders to navigate positions over – traders, therefore, need to be aware of key timings and consider the possibility for volatility and if there is a skew in the directional risk when the market learns of the outcome. That is typically a function of reviewing expectations and the outcome relative to what is ‘priced in’, market positioning and liquidity. US earnings the marquee risk this week I would argue that for single stock and equity index traders US earnings will likely prove to be the most influential factor, with 40% of the S&P500 market cap due to report this week, with 4 of the 6 biggest market cap names in the NAS100 reporting. With some sizeable moves implied by the options market for the individual names on the day of reporting, movement at a stock level could resonate across other plays within their sector and potentially promote wide-index volatility. Nvidia and Apple aside, company earnings don’t come much bigger than Microsoft, where the options market implies a move (higher or lower) of 4.7% - the after-market session on Tuesday (when MSFT report) could get lively, so make sure you’ve got our US 24hr equity offering on your platform to assess (and even trade) the ensuing move. US nonfarm payrolls will offer meaningful insights for macro heads US nonfarm payrolls are the next most meaningful event risk for me. From a playbook/risk perspective, if the payrolls print comes out around 200k, with an unchanged unemployment rate then making a call on the USD, NAS100 and gold is a tough exercise as the macro argument doesn’t really evolve. It is easier clearly to consider the path of the USD if we see a payrolls print below 170k, concurrently with a higher unemployment (U/E) rate, and a further moderation in average earnings. In fact, if we see a U/E rate above 4.1% then one could argue the US swaps pricing may even price a small probability of a 50bp cut in the September FOMC meeting – a factor which should suggest buying USDs because there is little chance that will play out. A lower U/E rate, and above 200k payrolls would make the macro somewhat messy as it challenges the strong consensus position for a cut in September. The FOMC meeting to open the door to cuts The Fed meeting statement and Powell’s presser is really an exercise in assessing what’s priced into the US swaps/rates curve and whether the tone sufficiently meets these expectations for easing. The door needs to be opened for a cut or US 2yr Treasury yield will spike higher, and the USD will rally hard, taking US equity lower. The options market implies a -/+1% move in the S&P500 on FOMC day, which is above the typical -/+0.8% move we’ve seen in recent meetings - so the market is priced for increased movement, and that needs to be accounted for in our risk and position sizing. The BoJ meeting will get good airtime, and while the JPY has undergone a huge rally of late, let’s not forget that the BoJ also have a strong history of disappointing those calling for hawkish policy action. I am somewhat sceptical that BoJ action will have much of an effect on the JPY anyhow, as the move we’ve seen has been more about a position unwind, with JPY-funded carry positions unwound, with cross-asset volatility and expected Fed policy changes the greater driver. Still, it’s a risk that could promote vol and needs to be considered. Aus Q2 CPI to make or break an August RBA rate hike The Aus CPI print will be closely watched by AUD and ASX200 traders, as it could put the 6 August RBA meeting as a truly ‘live’ event, while a weaker-than-expected outcome could take any chance of a rate hike off the table – much to the relief of the local equity market. We also see increased two-way risks to the GBP with the BoE meeting a lineball call as to whether the BoE cut bank rate. While the EU and Swiss CPI reports could also move the dial on the EUR and CHF. Elsewhere, I will be watching crude oil and gold in the wake of rising geopolitical news flow between Israel and Hezbollah. While Trump’s weekend speech at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville has cemented Bitcoin (and the miners) as a key election trade. US Earnings this week – It’s a busy week on the US corporate reporting calendar. 40% of the S&P500 market cap report numbers, but the names that should get the greatest attention from clients include: AMD (the options market implies a -/+7.7% move on the day of reporting), Boeing (-/+4.2%), Microsoft (-/+4.7%), Meta (-/+8.7%), (QCOM -/+7.6%), Coinbase (-/+9.8%), Apple (-/+3.8%), Amazon (-/+7.2%) and Intel (-/+7.4%). The ASX200 full-year earnings season commences with Rio Tinto starting proceedings on Wednesday. Central bank meetings due this week: BoJ Meeting (Wednesday – no set time) – The majority of economists see the BoJ keeping rates unchanged at 0.1%, although the distribution of these estimates range includes a 10bp, 15bp and even 25bp hike. Japan Swaps market price a 10bp hike at a 50% probability. There will also be a focus on any changes to the monthly pace of BoJ bond buying, where the central view is we see the monthly pace taken from Y6t p/m to Y4.5t. With the trade-weighted JPY rallying 2.6% last week, a number of traders have covered JPY shorts into the meeting, and positioning is far less extreme. Fed Reserve meeting and Chair Powell Press conference (Thursday 04:00 AEST) – the Fed will leave rates on hold, but the tone of the FOMC statement should evolve to show the Fed has greater confidence in the inflation outlook and to lay the groundwork for a cut in the September FOMC meeting. With a 25bp cut in September now fully priced, and 67bp (or 2.7 25bp cuts) priced by December, the move in the USD, gold and US equity will come in the tone of the FOMC statement and chair Powell’s press conference relative to this pricing. Will the statement meet these expectations sufficiently? BoE Meeting (Thursday 21:00 AEST / 12:00 UK) – Eyeing UK swaps pricing, a 25bp cut is priced at a 50% probability, so market participants see a cut as finely balanced. Economists, however, see a greater probability of easing, with 24 of 32 polled by Bloomberg calling for a 25bp cut to pull bank rate to 5%. The split in the MPC votes for a hold/cut may also be closely followed. Marquee economic data & consensus expectations: US nonfarm payrolls (Friday 22:30 AEST) – the consensus is for payrolls to come in at 178k (economists’ estimates range from 225k to 70k), with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings at 3.7% (from 3.9%). There may be disruptions that impact the nonfarm payrolls print, notably from Hurricane Beryl, so forecasting the jobs report is typically a huge challenge. An unemployment print that ticks up to 4.2%, with an NFP print below 170k would be a surprise, but it could feasibly bring a 50bp cut onto the table in September, at least in swaps/rates pricing. Other notable US economic data points this week that could move markets include Consumer confidence (Wed) and ISM Manufacturing (Thursday). Australia Q2 CPI (Wed 11:30 AEST) – Headline CPI is expected at 1% Q/Q / 3.8% y/y, with trimmed-mean CPI at 1% q/q / 4% y/y (the economist estimates range from 4.1% to 3.8%). For a more detailed preview on Aus CPI, see my preview EU CPI (Wed 19:00 AEST) – Headline CPI is eyed at 2.5% y/y (unchanged), with core CPI at 2.8% y/y (from 2.9%). The market already sees a cut from the ECB in the September meeting, but China manufacturing & services PMIs (Wed 11:30 AEST) – Manufacturing PMI is expected to come in a little worse than the prior month at 49.4 (from 49.5), with services PMI expected at 50.2 (50.5). Switzerland CPI (Friday 16:30 AEST) – Headline CPI expected at 1.3% y/y (unchanged) with core CPI also unchanged at 1.1% y/y. Good luck to all.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Pepperstone
S&P500 Bottom of the 8-month Channel. Strong buy signal.The S&P50 index (SPX) broke on Wednesday below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 06 and yesterday touched the bottom of the 8-month Channel Up pattern that started after the October 27 2024 market Low. Technically we are on the most optimal buy level on the medium-term and this is possibly the reason that the day has started on a bullish note. The 1D RSI is at the same time at 40.00 for the first time in 3 months, so slightly into the long-term Buy Zone. As long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) holds, we will be bullish, targeting 6200 (below a the +28.56% mark, which was the % rise of the previous Bullish Leg). If the price breaks below the 1D MA100, we will short up to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) where we will buy again heavily for the long-term (same Target). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
2