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Us500

US500 longEquity rally due to systematic buying and HF short covering. Short interest has halved from the Q4 highs for EU equities, but is still elevated in the US. Macro HFs and CTAs have turned outright long equities, and their exposure is close to 12m highs, yet still below average. Long short funds have also reduced short positions, but their net exposure remains low too. Risk control funds’ exposure has increased only modestly and remains depressed by historical standards. So there is room left for more systematic/HF buying. In contrast, mutual funds remain long cash and have dumped equities in recent months. As a result, their equity beta is close to the lows. Similarly, the bid from retail investors to equities has waned, with US households turning outright sellers of stocks. ©Barclays Equity Research
ULong
by Macrobriefing
2
US500 to hit the weekly support and then bounceUS500 is on the way to revisit the weekly support zone around 3990. Currently it has hit the daily support but it is likely that it will go and at least touch the weekly support zone. But they both are quite close. That will definitely produce a bounce to the upside and might bring the price to daily resistance level. Let us see if this daily produces enough momentum to lead it to the resistance. But I would incline towards it touching weekly first before heading towards resistance and that would also be favorable for a better entry point and a better RR.
ULong
by angela_altair
2
The (4) Four Charts I am watching closely todayPull these charts up on your radar. They are key. With today’s spike on the VIX, we may see key resistance and support lines break. If any one of these critical trendlines/levels are broken, much more caution is warranted on the long side. Let’s quickly run through the charts I am observing. DXY - A break to the upside of that macro uptrend (with confirmation on the daily) indicates a stronger dollar. A stronger dollar price must be calculated into current stock prices, weakening the current stock momentum. US500 - Testing that Macro Uptrend as support. A break below may indicate further downside (pending FED language following FOMC press conference). US Treasuries - Both the 10 year and the 2 year are pushing up against resistance. A break to the topside would indicate that the FED will continue its aggressive rate hikes strategy to tackle inflation. The dollar will follow with strength. The markets will depress even further. Crypto will follow. Treasuries seem to indicate that the FED will continue its aggression against inflation. We must pay attention closely to those purple lines/levels. Also to note, Bitcoin is up against its 200-week ma. I don’t see that be broken immediately without some setback prior. The Bitcoin price battle with the 200 weekly ma may be the earliest indicator we have to what might follow in the next few days/weeks. As always, be cautious. Don’t bite too hard on these last few weeks of bullish price action. Dollar-cost average yourself in. Place those stops. And best of luck to you all! Stew
TVC:DXY
by stewdamus
S&P500 - Temporarily exhaustedHello traders! As presented in previous posts, we believe that price has showed to be in a primary wave (B) to the upside to correct all the downtrend from January 2022 high. Price is likely to ungoing the last leg up of this upside correction. Low volumes and over entusiasm about the soft landing narrative suggest us that this rally can go up to 4300+ before reversing, but we do not take higher highs as our base case. However, price arrived at a big resistance, with the blue wlfe wave still valid, and managed to exhaust the upside steam creating multiple divergences e lower lows. Also, VIX seems to be about to breakout a bullish wolfe wave : We sometimes get insights by looking at VVIX, which is the same algorithm of the Vix applied to the VIX itself: Here we can see that VVIX already broke out, suggesting bullishness for the VIX and bearishness for the index. We are therefore short from @4152. Our stop loss is already placed on entry. Our first target is 3940, we will re evaluate the price action if we get there. Breaking 4090 confirms more downside. Happy trading!
UShort
by GMR-Capital
2
Keep a close eye on this breakout!Traders, Keep a close eye on this breakout on our fear index. So far, nothing significant has followed to the same level of price movement: the dollar is still under its macro-uptrend resistance, the US500 is still using its macro-uptrend for support logarithmically, and the US10yr/US2yr remains under resistance. But we want to track this closely to find out the legitimacy of this spike in fear. Confirmation can be had if one of the indicators mentioned above follows and breaks its support/resistance (see yesterday's video for more). Best, Stew
TVC:VIX
by stewdamus
US500 - Strong Support Zone Ahead!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. US500 is overall bullish trading inside the rising red channel and now retesting the lower red trendline. Moreover, the zone 3900 - 3950 is a strong weekly support zone . 🏹 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue support zone and lower red trendlines . (acting as non-horizontal support) As per my trading style: As US500 approaches the lower purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
ULong
by TheSignalyst
4
SPX in a BEAR Market? Retracement before a BULL TrapIn this Elliott Wave paradigm, I'm assuming that SPX have completed a BULL Cycle with large wave 3 and that a possible Zig Zag correction is currently unfolding. If that's the case then, we shouldn't expect any BULL Market or wave 5 before 2024. However, the AI hype could boost the markets during the end of the year with a test of the 61.8% and maybe above that price level. The PERFECT BULL TRAP will be in play if this case were to play out. Of course, we could already assumed that wave B has already finished but I take DURATION into consideration and other macro economics factors. I'm expecting a correction of of nearly 50% in the short term (next couple of months) to then see a rally up until the end of the year. Maybe November.
SP:SPXShort
by Lord_Of_Dax_
2
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 FEB 20 ES1! SPX500USD 2023 FEB 20 Scenario1 rotation play yielded 120pts gain for week of 13 Feb. Scenario Planning: 1) Rotational play = trade at boundary of 4175-4061 zone 2) Short on test and reject of 4094-4048 zone Volume Analysis: Weekly: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor demand Daily: Ave vol up bar close toward high = Minor demand H4: Ave vol up bar close toward high = minor demand Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4175 4061-4048 3928-3788 3580 3502 3231 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677