US500 (SPX) Outlook 4/16Bullish on indices, but I don't trust those lows. Want to see them taken out before the move up. FVG below is added reason to expect them to fail.
Us500
US500 H4 | Bounce from 38.2% FiboUS500 is approaching a key support and potentially bounce from here. We could see price move up to our take profit target.
Entry: 4132.55
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss: 4086.65
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement
Take Profit: 4173.45
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance
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4-19-23 [spy]good afternoon,
been playing around with many variations of this count over these last few days, and i really like this one.
we call these "sharp double zig-zags" in my world, and they are designed for the sole purpose of squeezing out all the bears out of the bear market.
i have theorized for awhile that the spx would end up going back near ath before the next major leg down - and this is precisely how i think that happens.
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Wave B target = HKEX:464
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S&P500 Still bullish but sell under this level.S&P500 is extending its rise inside the long term Channel Up.
The MA100 (4h) is supporting as it did in the previous two Higher High waves.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy as long as the price is closing over the MA100 (4h).
2. Sell if it closes under it.
Targets:
1. 4220 (+11.00% rise).
2. 3950 (Channel's bottom).
Tips:
1. Both medium term corrections inside the Channel Up, started when a candle closed under the MA100 (4h).
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Notes:
This is a continuation of this trading plan:
Stock Markets Trend Analysis - US30, US100, US500, UK100, GE40By analysing the stock markets at different timeframes, ranging from the three-monthly chart down to a four-hour chart, I have noticed that they have reached a significant resistance level on several higher timeframes. Furthermore, on the lower timeframe, the trend seems to display indications of weakening, and the charts seem to be range-bound. Could this signify that a stock market selloff is looming? If it is, this will undoubtedly affect the currency markets. In the video we look at the following charts on multiple time frames: US30, US100, US500, UK100, GE40, VIX. I would like to clarify that this video is simply an observation and a sharing of my thoughts, and should not be interpreted as financial advice.
S&P500 Don't sell before this line breaksThe S&P500 (SPX) has had an excellent run following our buy call exactly one month ago:
The confirmation for the buy was given by the 1D RSI Bullish Cross. As the price is approaching the top of the Channel Up, which is projected to be within 4230 - 4250, we start looking for signals to sell. Naturally the 1D RSI giving the opposite signal (Bearish Cross) will be a confirmation. As you see, the previous two RSI Bearish Crosses have been the two major sell signals within this 6-month Channel Up and have been formed straight after the price broke below the Higher Lows trend-line from the previous Higher Low.
Right now the price as supported by the Higher Lows trend-line and as long as it does, we will continue taking small buys towards the top. We will sell after its breaks below the Higher Lows and the RSI makes the Bearish Cross. Potential target 3930.
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Volatility in decline - why the VIX index is so lowHaving only recently traded through the most volatile (vol) environments in interest rates and bond markets since the GFC, we are now seeing far more subdued conditions in vol. Many have expressed disbelief at how the VIX index (S&P500 30-day implied volatility) is below 17% when the US is eyeing a possible recession this year, the credit crunch is yet to really bite, earnings estimates are likely due to be revised lower, and Treasury yields curves are still deeply inverted.
It’s not just the fact we haven’t seen the S&P500 close 1% lower since 22 March (18 sessions), but we also see the 5-day (exponential) moving average of the high-low trading range for S&P500 futures at a meagre 41-points. This is not far off the lowest levels since 2011, so traders are getting less and to work with intraday.
There isn’t one reason for the lower vol, so I have put some views on the considerations I see as causing these calmer conditions. I am sure there are others, but these jump out.
1. S&P500 realised volatility is impacting the VIX index – we see that S&P500 10-day realised vol is now 8.2%, with S&P500 20-day realised vol at 11.7%% - both are the lowest levels since Nov 21 – options market makers will typically look at how volatility is realising as the basis for pricing implied volatility. The fact the S&P500 just refuses to fall has also limited the demand for downside hedges- hedges cost money.
2. CTAs (trend-following funds) have been getting progressively longer and their estimated net exposure is ‘max long’ US S&P500 futures. Volatility-targeting hedge funds are adding equity exposure as equity realised vol falls – lower vol begets lower vol.
3. Why sell your equity longs? Funds are taking advantage of the grinding price action in stocks and selling S&P500 index calls and using the premium to buy OTM (out of the money) S&P puts – this means they can essentially hold their core equity holdings and utilise optionality with a cheap/free hedge.
4. Reduced interest rate risk – the Fed are now fully data dependent and the market prices a 25bp hike in May, with an extended pause through to November – with a far more normal distribution in the skew of expectations for bond price/yields (i.e. yields could go either way and not just higher), we’ve seen bond vol (we use the MOVE index) fall from the highs on 15 March. Probable lengthy inaction from the Fed has lowered volatility.
5. A weaker USD has helped lower broad market volatility - The USD index (DXY) fell 4.8% from 8 March to 14 April – in that time the VIX index fell 9 vols from 26% to 17%
6. The Fed’s response to managing instability risk through the rollout of emergency credit facilities was truly meaningful – the market is becoming comfortable that there will be consolidation in the US banking sector ahead of us, but the Fed has cut the systemic event risk.
7. Increased liquidity - Reserve balances held with the Fed are +12% since March. We also see that since January the TGA (Treasury General Account) has been drawn down by $450B to sit at $109B.
8. Corporate share buybacks authorisation hit a new record and nears $400b – companies are the biggest buyers of stocks, and this is suppressing vol.
9. BoJ gov Ueda said on 10 April that YCC is still the best policy for the current economy – the has reduced JGB and JPY implied vol, which again has spilt over into G10 FX volatility.
10. The Fed funds rate was hiked aggressively from 0.25% to 5% - Yet while the US real policy rate (fed funds adjusted for headline CPI) has moved from -8% to -0.2%, it is still negative and to some that are not restrictive enough.
11. The rise of 0DTE (days to expiry) options – fewer traders are trading 20–40-day expiries and the volume in ultra-short-term options means we see less volume in the strikes that feed the VIX calculation.
Trading Strategy – traders adapt their strategy to lower volatility and range compression. Recognising the market environment is pivotal for day traders – this means understanding if it’s a range/mean reverting session or more of a trending and possible momentum day. We can see that when the close-to-close percentage changes are low, and the trading ranges are compressing mean reversion strategies are preferred. Traders are selling strength intraday and buying weakness.
What changes this low-vol regime?
If we knew then everyone would be buying volatility – we can look at the known risks and anticipate, but we wait for the market to react and show it is now a factor – being early can hurt. To cause a material drawdown in risk and higher vol I think it must stem from liquidity. While we can’t rule out a renewed move to hike interest rates, I see the debt ceiling as a real risk – not because the US govt is going to miss a debt payment and technically default; the probability of that is incredibly low. But the actual negative event may come from once we see it resolved and the US Treasury aggressively rebuilds the TGA, and issues close to a $1t of short-term US Bills – this will act as a massive liquidity drain and QT on steroids. This comes at a time when the US could be moving into recession and the ECB balance sheet will be falling faster. A scenario many are starting to look at very closely now as liquidity is the oxygen in the market's lungs.
US500 BEARISH FOR A LONGER RIDEPlease check out the big timeframe i.e 12 months and see how this market looks, its very strongly bearish, or rather with technical analysis it looks like its still going to be bearish for a long time so no rush, there will be more selling opportunities than we thought. Just wait for resistances breaks and get on the sellers with a tight stop loss because the sellers will rally crazy.
SPX 500 LONGLooking for SPX to make its next extension to -23.6% Fib and beyond... I think we easily see 4200 in this market...
US30 DJI LONG SetupSee chart for analysis.
-Looking fro buying opportunites with price inside
demand zones.
-Overall trend = uptrend + short term = sideways
-Price above 200MA
-Look for buys with Lower timeframe confrimation.
4-17-23 es gm,
unlike the nasdaq which has put in a clean looking 5 waves up from the lows -
the spx did not.
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what this opens the door for, is a raid of the lows.
in this case, based on my current primary trajectory on the us dollar, i am going to be anticipating an expanded flat.
aka -> raid of the low to trip the accumulated liquidity down below, followed by a slingshot to 4700+
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if you are interested in learning more about flats - i do highly recommend checking out this post about them:
US500 The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear subscribers ,
This is my opinion on the US500 next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 4127.6
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 4202.2
Recommended Stop Loss - 4085.8
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
US500: Will Keep Growing! Here is Why:
The recent price action on the US500 pair was keeping me on the fence, however, my bias is slowly but surely changing into the bullish one and I think we will see the price go up.
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S&P500: One last bullish leg before a new correctionThe S&P500 is pulling back today after it hit the 0.5 Fibonacci level on Friday. The 1D technicals remain bullish (RSI = 61.663, MACD = 33.310, ADX = 42.403) as the current rise is the bullish leg that started on the Higher Low of the Channel Up and technically peaks near 4,250. That is our short term target and don't see a correction before that.
Of course we need to take into account the R1 Zone, which has formed tops 4 times already since June 2022 but this time the 1D RSI looks more like the July 29th-August 8th 2022, which was a stepping stone before a blow off top at 4,330.
Prior idea:
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Quick overview of banking results: JPM, Citigroup, WFCThe last week brought earnings from three major U.S. banks, including Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase & Co., and Wells Fargo. Overall, the results for the first quarter of 2023 were mixed, with indicators pointing to positive and negative trends. All three banks showed solid growth in revenue and non-interest income. However, declining deposits and loans paint a worrisome picture for the industry (together with rising provisions for credit losses). As a result, we believe the theme of banking earnings will be “big capitalized banks that can make money even in the current environment versus small, less resilient banks facing obstacles ahead.”
Citigroup
Citigroup Inc. reported a net income of $4.6 billion (up 7% YoY but down 19% YoY when excluding divesture-related impacts) for the first quarter of 2023, compared to $4.3 billion for the same period in 2022. The bank’s revenues grew 12% YoY (or 6% YoY excluding divestiture-related impacts) and 19% QoQ. Operating expenses rose by 1% YoY and 2% QoQ. Citigroup's end-of-period loans were $652 billion at quarter end, down 1% YoY. Deposits remained unchanged versus the prior year, standing at $1.3 trillion.
JP Morgan Chase & Co.
For the first quarter of 2023, JPMorgan Chase & Co reported $12.6 billion in net income (up 52% YoY and 15% QoQ) and record managed revenue of $39.3 billion (up 25% YoY and 11% QoQ). Its noninterest expenses rose to $20.1 billion (by 5% YoY and 6% QoQ). The Consumer & Community Banking division had an ROE of 40%, with average deposits down 4% YoY and client investment assets down 1% YoY. The Commercial Banking division saw its average loans grow 13% YoY and 1% QoQ. However, it experienced a decline in average deposits of 16% YoY and 5% QoQ. Meanwhile, the Asset Wealth Management division saw average loans drop by 1% YoY and 1% QoQ, with average deposits declining as much as 22% YoY. The bank’s total deposits dropped by 7% YoY and average deposits by 14% YoY and 3% QoQ.
Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo reported $4.9 billion (up 32% YoY and 52% QoQ) in net income and $20.7 billion in total revenue (up 17% YoY and 3% QoQ) for the first quarter 2023. Net interest income rose by 45% YoY, while noninterest income dropped 13% YoY. Period-end deposits decreased by 8% YoY and 2% QoQ. Furthermore, period-end assets fell by 3% YoY.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
US500 - Wait for more Monday CloseON US500 I would not trade in the next few days, more information and more movement is needed because from this area it can both go up and down.
In practice, I closed the day above the support but it is below the trend line (the blue one), if on Monday it does not close above the trend line and possibly confirms on Tuesday above the trend line, then in that case I would go long but in the given situation, we have to take into account that on Monday it could close below the trend area and thus it could go to the next support area down.
Including the RSI shows us that it is overbought, which would be related to the resistance trend line in the downward trend.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 APR 17 WEEKCME_MINI:ES1!
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 APR 17 WEEK
Friday's bar closed below 4175 and showed a rejection
of higher prices.
Scenario Planning:
1) Rejection short at 4175
2) Market rotation continues = trade at boundary (80pt range)
of range (grey box)
3) Rotation breakout long at support of 4175
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = minor weakness
Daily: High vol narrow spread S>D bar = weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4303 4175 4096
3928 3788
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Have a profitable trading week.
S&P500: Breaking key Resistance but the 1W MA50 has to holdThe S&P500 crossed this week over the LH trendline of the August 15th rejection on the 1W MA50. Proportionally this can be compared to the April 18th 2016 breakout. The key for a sustainable uptrend on that occasion was the 1W MA50. It held twice and sustained a long term uptrend. With the 1W technicals turning marginally bullish (RSI = 56.614, MACD = 37.390, ADX = 36.682) and the RSI on a similar HL trendline with 2016, we expect a few weeks of sideways trading and if the 1W MA50 holds, we have a legitimate case for a new long term Bull Cycle.
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SPX to find support at trend line?US500 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 4096 (stop at 4066)
Posted a Bullish Outside candle on the Daily chart.
There is no sign that this bullish momentum is faltering but the pair has stalled close to a previous swing high of 4153.
The bias remains mildly bullish but there is scope for a move in either direction at the open.
Trading within a Bullish Channel formation.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 4091, resulting in improved risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 4166 and 4186
Resistance: 4155 / 4196 / 4230
Support: 4091 / 4047 / 4018
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S&P500 starting an expansion the likes of which we've never seenThe S&P500 index (SPX) is trading on a multi-year Channel Up pattern that started on the March 2009 bottom of the Housing (subprime mortgage) Crisis. With all the talk lately on whether or not the index is out of its Bear Phase, this chart can offer great insight on the long-term trend.
As you see, it shows that the Bear Market's bottom was priced in September 2022 exactly on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), which has served as a Support both on December 2018 (peak of U.S. - China trade war) and January 2016 (China's slowdown, VW scandal, Oil crash). As we are all aware March 2020 was an exception (black swan event) that happens once in a hundred years. Still the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) supported.
The key here is the 3W RSI. It is trading within a Channel Down and every time the price hit its bottom, a multi-month rally started. The last two times that rally peaked on the 3.0 Fibonacci extension. Calculating the new 3.0 Fib from the 4840 top to the 3500 bottom, it gives roughly a 9000 projection. So since this is only the start on this Expansion Phase within the multi-year Channel Up pattern, it is not at all unlikely to expect steady growth from the current levels and a rough 9000 peak by 2027.
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SP500 a short term uptrend 🦐SP500 on the 4h chart after the test of the weekly support at the 3840 structure started a series of higher highs higher lows move.
The price that already tested a few times the 4000 level has retraced over a previous support area exactly at the 50% retracement and is now looking for a potential break .
How can i approach this scenario?
I will wait for the EU market session and monitor the price action for a possible break that will possibly happen in the US session and i will look for a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
SPX 500 Will Target $4180 Quickly. BE PREPARED!This week we are expecting price to move upwards near TADAWUL:4180 and make its way near TSE:4237 by the end of next week.
All timeframes above H4 are currently bullish. Our outlook is to make several long positions within the H! towards the intended targets.
With inflation data and quarterly earnings being released this week, we can anticipate that stocks will most likely start a bullrun.
