Us500
GOLD → The market is ready to continue to growOANDA:XAUUSD is standing still on Thursday, which we were prepared for. The TVC:DXY opens with a subsequent decline on Friday, which gives bullish hopes for GOLD to strengthen. Let's breakdown:
On the local timeframe, the prolonged consolidation is forming a symmetrical triangle, but as a strong support area is forming below the pattern and the price is consolidating above the key liquidity zones, the market may try to realize a bullish scenario. This will be facilitated by a break of the triangle resistance, in which case our target will be 2005 and 2010.
Also, due to the fact that the price did not test the liquidity area below 1993, 1984, we have a chance to start another correction before further growth.
On D1 gold is in a range and since support was tested earlier, resistance is still our prospect. The target is the upper boundary of the range - the area of 2010.
Key support: 1993-1992, 1990, 1984
Key resistance: 1998, 2005, 2010
I expect a break of the pattern resistance with further growth to these targets, but since a large liquidity area was formed below the support, the market may test this area before further growth.
Regards R. Linda!
SPX500 to see a fakeout?US500 - Intraday
A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 4549.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Due to an Ending Wedge formation, we continue to treat extended gains with caution.
The formation has a measured move target of 4507.
Bespoke support is located at 4465.
We look to Sell at 4573 (stop at 4598)
Our profit targets will be 4513 and 4493
Resistance: 4569 / 4575 / 4600
Support: 4545 / 4507 / 4465
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GOLD → Support retest and low volatility is expected OANDA:XAUUSD may be low-volatility on Thursday ( today ) and form a narrow range as it is Thanksgiving Day in the US and in Canada, which I would like to congratulate the people of these two countries!!!
Moving on to gold : The market continues to test the 1984 area. False breakdowns, prolonged trading in this area indicates that buyers and sellers are fighting for this area. A prolonged consolidation of the price above 1984 will form a bullish potential, which will indicate medium-term prospects for us.
The TVC:DXY will stand still today, which will affect the forex market accordingly.
Gold makes a false break of the local support 1994 and bounces from 0.5 fibo, but the important liquidity area has not been tested yet. It is likely that the dollar may continue to strengthen slightly on Friday, while gold may go lower to 1984 or trend support, but the fundamental background is still on the side of gold and we are still waiting for the continuation of the rise.
Support levels: 1993, 0.5 fibo, 1984
Resistance levels: 1998, 0.236 fibo
Today the price will trade within the narrow range of 1998 - 1993, 1990. A range trading strategy can be used for trading.
Do not consider gold for medium-term selling at the moment, there is no reason to do so, the market is still technically and fundamentally strong for growth.
Regards R. Linda!
SPX500 FRACTAL may 2010. MEGA PUMPThank you to all those who put out fires in space. I wonder what it would be like to be in outer space? Thank you for your work and I want to say that I'm going back to stargazing and exploring the deep galaxies.
And, uh, here's a clear fractal from May 2010. According to it, we have already formed a bottom and we will have a stronger growth of the spx500 and the whole American economy. It will surely burst, but not now).
SPX500 - THE BIG SHORTThis is basic numerology, the values of the price from which the price turns downwards if it is on the highs, the same was the case with bitcoin recently, those who were attentive could notice this pattern on the chart. By the end of this week I will start to build up a large short position
S&P500 How high can this rally go?The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a relentless 1-month rally since since the October 27 bottom, having grown already by more than +11%. Since the August 16 2022 High, the index has entered into a long-term Channel Up sequence. The last two breaks below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) have been the Higher Lows and the best medium-term buy entry. The recent (October) one in particular was the first that was on a Higher Lows 1D CCI Bullish Divergence.
We can see that all rallies since August 2022 have been around the same range (+19.31% to +20.79%). As a result, we expect another minimum +19.33% (from the October bottom). Along with the (dotted) Channel Up top, which gives us a first Target at 4700, that +19.33% expectation gives a second long-term target at 4900, which would be above the 4820 (Jan 04 2022) All Time High (ATH). The latter Target will also make a perfect Higher Low at the top of the Diverging (dashed) Channel Up and hit the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (as all previous rally did), while the former (Target 1) will price a Higher High on the (dotted) Channel Up.
As a result, if the index enters a consolidation for a few days within the orange ellipse pattern (as it did during April 2023 and November 2022), it will give you another opportunity to enter in case you missed the rally from its start.
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GOLD → Beginning of correction, possible test of support OANDA:XAUUSD forms another micro rally on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the price tries to test the high but fails to reach the area amid a strengthening TVC:DXY ahead of the news.
Several important news are published today, I am interested in Initial Jobless Claims - as one of the inflation indicators. Analysts expect a slight improvement in this indicator, which may strengthen the dollar in the short term. But as we remember, the last 3 times the data was worse than the previous one. If they are better than expected, gold will show a slight correction and vice versa.
From the last FOMC meeting: Fed members are not ready to cut the rate yet, but there is a high probability that they will not raise it again.
From a technical analysis point of view: Gold looks quite strong despite the indicators data, we are judging on a fundamental basis. High interest, weakening dollar and geopolitical basis suggest further price growth.
The 1984 level still plays an important role for the market. At the moment the price is in the range of 2004-1993-1984. Since today's retest failed to update the high, the price is forming a correction. The market is aiming to test the nearest support. We highlight several most important scenarios regarding the overall situation:
The main sense of which is either consolidation or retest of resistance after a small correction. But in the long term, I expect a breakout of the local resistance and the direction of further growth towards the global targets.
Support levels: 0.236 fibo, 1993, 0.382 fibo, 1984
Resistance levels: 2000-2004
I am expecting a correction and news data that may determine the short to medium term outlook. I still see gold as an asset that can strengthen its price in the near term.
Regards R. Linda!
S&P500: Channel Up is holding on 4H.The S&P500 maintains its steady uptrend since the October 27th bottom, inside a Channel Up pattern. This (on a projected +7.15% 2nd bullish wave) targets above the R3 July 27th High (TP = 4,650). Being however overbought on the 4H technical outlook (RSI = 70.276, MACD = 22.060, ADX = 31.456), we will be ready to short if the price crosses under the 4H MA50 and target the 4H MA200 (TP = 4,400).
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S&P500 INDEX (SPY): Bullish Outlook Explained
S&P500 violated a solid daily horizontal resistance and closed above that.
The broken structure turned into support now.
We may anticipate a further growth on the Index.
Next resistance - 4595
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Dow Jones Index (US30): Top-Down Analysis & Trading Plan
Dow Jones Index is consolidating on a key daily horizontal resistance.
Analysing an intraday price action, we can spot a horizontal range on a 4H.
I would suggest waiting for a breakout of the support of the range -
4H candle close below 34760 - as a solid bearish confirmation.
A bearish continuation will be expected at least to 34500 then.
Bullish violation of the resistance of the range will make the setup invalid.
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S&P500 The final pull back before Santa's rally!The S&P500 index / US500 has been on the strongest 2 week rise since October 2022, which was at the very start of the Fibonacci Channel Up you see on this chart.
The index has established the 1day MA50 as the new long term Support and may test it soon if we expect it follow a similar course as the October-November 2022 rally, which made a short term pull back after rising by +12.20%.
That pull back happened after reaching the 0.618 Fibonacci level and declined slightly under the 0.382. Typical technical retrace. It then resumed the rally to complete a +17.30% rise.
Buy that pull back as it will most likely be the last before Santa's rally to +17.30%. Target 4800.
Note: The price is currently on the same 1day CCI level as October 25th.
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Dow Jones Index (US30): Important Update After Payrolls Report
Multiple time frame analysis for Dow Jones Index.
Bearish outlook explained.
Important key levels & price action analysis.
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SPX at a decisive point Against our expectations, the rollover in the Chinese stock market has not materialized, and the SPX broke above the downward-sloping channel. Currently, the SPX trades near the $4,500 price tag. In the following days, we will pay close attention to whether it will manage to hold above the upper bound of the channel. If it fails, it will raise our suspicion over the potential reversal. Contrarily, if the SPX succeeds, it will be positive in the short term. On top of watching the channel, we will monitor RSI, Stochastic, and MACD on the daily chart. To support a bullish thesis, we would like to see Stochastic and MACD keep rising and the RSI break above 70 points. However, a flattening of MACD and Stochastic combined with a failure of RSI to perform a breakout will act as a warning sign.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 portrays the daily chart of SPX within a downward-sloping channel. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above the channel’s upper bound.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of SPX and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500 Cup and Handle paid off. Now brace for Xmas rally.The S&P500 index (SPX) fulfilled our previous Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern, as even though it had a week closing below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it eventually bottomed and has since been on a 3-week rebound that broke above the Handle, turning the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) into a Support again.
Perhaps the strongest technical development of the week is the emerging formation of a Bullish Cross on the 1W MACD. Historically those are formed in the middle of strong rallies, even during a Bear Cycle correction (such as on July 18 2022). Even though a 1 week correction similar to the October 31 2022 1W candle is possible, we expect a new All Time High (ATH) at 4900 (Target 2) at least, as every rally since the October 10 2022 market bottom, has completed at least a +20.19% rise.
Even on the short-term, we expect a 'Christmas rally' to test the bottom of the ATH Zone at 4700 by the end of December, assuming the 1D MA50 of course supports.
Our longer term perspective has the psychological 5000 target in frame as it is slightly below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension from the July 24 High. This projection is made based on that July 24 High itself, which was been on the 1.5 Fib extension from the January 30 High.
Are you looking for a 1 week pull-back to buy or you are already on board for a 'Santa rally'?
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S&P500: Over July's Channel Down. Big bullish breakout.S&P500 crossed over the Channel Down that started in late July, turned bullish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.269, MACD = 21.240, ADX = 31.244) and ahead of the U.S. CPI report is targeting the R2 level. If today's 1D candle closes over the top of the Channel Down, aim at the R2 without a pullback (TP = 4,530). If it closes under it, buy after a pullback near the 1D MA50, with the same target.
Long term, we are targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 4,690), as this is the technical target of the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which was validated by the 1D RSI Double Bottom on October 27th.
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Trouble lies aheadAs the Chinese stocks are starting to show signs of weakness after a few days of upside movement, we expect the same scenario to play out in the U.S. market. With that said, the setup we introduced in a previous article remains valid. To support a thesis about a bearish reversal, we want to see MACD fail at breaking into the bullish zone on the daily chart; in addition to that, we want to see RSI and Stochastic continue declining.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows two Chinese stock market indices we are paying close attention to.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the weekly chart of MACD. A breakout below the midpoint is something to watch in the following weeks. If MACD succeeds in breaking below zero points, it will be very bearish.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Slightly bearish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
US500 - Break or Make ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
DAILY: Left Chart
📊 From a long-term perspective, US500 has been trading bearishly within the confines of a descending broadening wedge marked in red. Currently , it is approaching the upper boundary, which acts as a non-horizontal resistance.
📈 For the bulls to maintain control and assume dominance from a macro perspective, a breakthrough above 4420.0 is essential.
Meanwhile , there's still potential for the bears to exert influence and drive the price lower.
H1: Right Chart
From a short-term viewpoint, US500 remains bullish; however, the momentum appears to be weakening as the recent price action has been relatively flat, occurring within the boundaries of the orange channel.
📉 For the bears to seize control and trigger a bearish scenario, a drop below the last low in the orange channel, around 4360.0, is necessary.
Meanwhile , the bulls will retain control unless this key level is breached.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
NAS100 – up 8 straight days & the chase is heating up We see the NAS100 up for 8 straight days, with price breaking the July downtrend and testing the 12 Oct swing high – a record closing high for Microsoft clearly helping. Naturally, we don’t see the NAS100 up for 8 days in a row too frequently, and since 2010 we’ve seen this run of form 32 times. It can be quite compelling to short a market having had such a stretch, but running the backtest I find if I bought the NAS100 on the 8th up day, 53% of the time I would rally for a 9th – in fact, five days later the index would be higher 65% of the time. Granted, in many of those years the US equity markets were in a bull market and pullbacks were buying opportunities, but it still suggests momentum favours the brave. Let’s not forget the NAS100 futures haven’t closed lower in the month of November since 2011 – although a 6.4% rally MTD is punchy.
S&P500 and VIX. A tale of two opposites.It's no secret that the stock market and in this particular example, the S&P500 (chart on the left), is negatively correlated to the Volatility Index (chart on the right). What we do want to bring to your attention however is how tightly this correlation has been in the past 12 months with VIX's Falling Wedge having the price on its middle, almost on perfect symmetry with the S&P's Bullish Megaphone.
See the recurring sequences within both patterns (tops/ red, bottoms/ greens, consolidations/ blue arcs) and how inversely correlated they are. Right now VIX is headed for its Support where it ends to rebound and consolidate for around 1 month, before sharply declining for a new Lower Low.
Similarly we expect the S&P500 to rise some more before peaking for the short-term, then pull-back to consolidate and then stage an aggressive end-of-the-year rally. Can it repeat a +20% rally as the previous 2 rally legs of the past 12 months? Doubtful, but potentially taking profits when VIX bottoms is certainly a good indicator to have in mind.
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US500 ES Supply Demand Analysis-See the Chart above for an analysis
-Price reaching off of daily/weekly supply
-Shorts valid with confirmation
-Personally will be trading smaller timeframes
but still interesting levels. buy still valid
for day-trading/scalping to the upside
Sentiment ping-pongAs the bearish setup we introduced last week was not triggered, we continue to watch the SPX on the sidelines and wait for a better trade opportunity to emerge. In the meantime, we want to highlight a persistent positive correlation between the U.S. and Chinese markets. It is amazing how, once again, the reversal in the Chinese stocks preceded the same price action in the U.S. stock market (by just a few days). Therefore, we will keep paying attention to what is happening overseas in the foreseeable future as well. With that said, we will update our thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of the SPX and simple support/resistance levels. If SPX breaks above Resistance 1, it will further bolster a bullish case in the short term. However, a failure to break above this level (and hold above it) will raise our suspicion about the potential reversal.
Illustration 1.02
The image above displays daily charts of the HSI (Hang Seng Index) and the SSE (Shanghai Composite Index).
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Dow Jones Index (US30): Your Trading Plan Explained
Daily/4h/1h time frames analysis for Dow Jones.
Price action & important key levels.
Trading plan.
Scenarios.
Thoughts.
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