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US10Y

US 10Y yield is eroding a major band of supportIt's pretty much all about Fibonacci today - the market has recent peaked at around 4.24 and is in the process of eroding a key convergence of support at 3.25/3.32 (lows since January, the 55-week ma and the 2018 high). These are looking vulnerable and failure will imply a deeper corrective move lower towards 3.00 and potentially 2.80ish - the 38.2% retracement of the entire rally from the 2020 low. Remember todays close will also constitute a weekly close on the charts so this should be watched closely.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
1
USD/JPY correlation with US yields persists after Fed meetingUSD/JPY registers a fresh monthly low (130.42) following the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with US Treasury yields reflecting a similar behavior as the 10-Year yield gives back the rebound from the yearly low (3.29%). In turn, the correlation coefficient now stands at +0.95 and the indicator may continue to reflect a significant relationship as market participants prepare for a change in regime. USD/JPY Outlook USD/JPY initiates a series of lower highs and lows as it fails to hold above the 50-Day SMA (132.55). A move below the psychologically important 130.00 handle may push USD/JPY towards 128.90 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), with a break below the February low (128.08) bringing the January low (127.23) on the radar. However, USD/JPY may track the flattening slope in the moving average if it holds above the February low (128.08), with a move above the indicator opening up the 133.30 (50% Fibonacci retracement) area.
by FOREXcom
US10Y is on the 1W MA50. Major effect on stocks and commodities!It is only 11 days ago when we called for an immediate drop on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) as it was at the top of both its long-term Channel Down as well as the top of the Diverging Channel Up: The Channel Up now broke to the downside as the US10Y not only hit our 3.550% Target but closed even below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with the Channel Down remaining the only pattern still valid. The important development is that the price is testing the 1W MA50 for the second straight day and for the first time since December 21 2021. If it closes the week below it, it not only validates the 5 month Channel Up but also confirms the way for a new long-term downtrend extension towards the 1W MA100. Needless to say, this will have major consequences on the stock and metals (Gold in particular) markets as well. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
1
The SVB Collapse and Why It Matters To YouInteresting situation with the collapse of SVB (SIVB), the people have yet to realize we control the market not the central planners. and the collapse of SVB is a realization of that power. So , here is what i know from the very little articles and podcasts that I listen to and I will give you guys the why its important. From what i know is that SVB business model was somewhat risky in the first place, and their main consumer base was startups, and tech startups. hence the name Silicon Valley portion of Silicon Valley Bank. Now a little money education... in the world of money and currency (remember currency as current it will become important later) there is a concept called the velocity of money, basically the volatility of money. for my stock traders think the VIX. when the VIX is low there is no money to be made because money is not moving. but when the VIX is high there is plenty of money going around so why not use your dollars as napkins, right or "fun coupons"! this is the velocity of money the faster a person can make money move the more money they stand to make. the banks know this. So when you go to the bank and deposit your check your money is already out the door into something else before you're able to but your wallet in your bag or pocket. this happens because of what is called as the "fractional reserve system" and to be honest its a "F"ed up idea but has worked thus far. what this system means for every dollar you put into the bank, the bank can lend out 10$. A bank is a business it makes its profits by lending money, and when you save your money it cost the bank money, because of your .01% interest rate. the reason for the big push for open accounts is because the more open accounts the bank has means the more money they have liquid, which means the more they can loan out, which means the more they stand to profit. now as an insurance policy the US government makes the banks keep a fraction of their total account balances on site incase of what they call a "bank run" happens (get to what a bank run is later) Now, normally you dont notice this or even care because when you go to the bank and want to pull 100$ from your account its no big deal whats a 100$ when your dealing with 100s of thousands. you want a 100$ you get 100$ instantly. But want to see the system become a problem for you, if you have more than lets say 25,000$ or more in an account go try to pull ALL that money out and see what type of road blocks you encounter. they will make you give ID, reasons for shutting down the account, basically your first born child and your blood type. partly is because they really want to know why you're closing the account, because thats profits walking out the door. but the main reason is, they have to reach out to sister branches and other banks to pool that money together to be able to give it to you and this typically happens like over night. so if you think you're about to waltz into your local bank and demand a 25,000$ check right then and there you're sadly mistaken. the same exact process happens when you take out a mortgage, now your talking $200K and up so now there are more road blocks. whether you're the buyer or the seller. you sell your house for 500K and you think that check you deposited is there right when you get it... yeah its not! back to the currency comment money is now a currency it has to keep moving to keep its value. think of it as a river, mostly you can drink water from a river and be okay because bacteria cannot grow in moving water but drink water out of a pond and you just might catch Syphilis (sarcasm intended). money is the same way, the faster you can make it move the more you stand to make and the healthier the money is, if take money out of the river and stick it in your pond as a savings account inflation will eat it alive making it very unhealthy. Even historically before all this crazy inflation started happening the savings rate in a savings account was like 0.01% and inflation was around 2 percent. Now the importance of this lays with the SVB. When looking at their business model it seems solid... "invest in high beta companies, or higher risk endeavors, then to off set this risk we will load up on the safest paper assets money can buy... the US 10Y bond." Officially the US hasn't defaulted on loans before... i mean we will print more money before we default. I mean it sounds like counterfeiting if you ask me, but who am I just a low key, low level, low volume trader with a computer living in my moms basement :) sarcasm... or is it?! Well from the looks of it it would seem SVB bought a ton of these 10Y bonds in 2021 when the economy was ripping and roaring. So, when bond yields are down their prices are way up. So in the full swing of the "roaring 20's" yields were around 1.12X or keeping it simpler 1.1XX. so that must mean the value must of been sky high. My only rational thought for this type of purchase was the risk manager must of thought he could off load the bonds in the bond market for a nice profit thinking good times were going to continue. On the surface it seems okay high risk business model with a low risk counter weight. But "We the People" were leaving SVB, and going back to what i said about taking your 25,000$ savings out, and they were running out of reserves and their bonds were worth less than the paper they were "printed" on, so they filed a loss on their report. on the surface this was fine, because only die hards read a companies 10Q or 8A but all it takes is one... and there is always that one Guy... and not this Regular Guy either. I personally dont like the instability of the tech industry. i mean i do believe we will make a full blown terminator but i dont want to gamble on which company that is regardless of what the gain is... might as well go gamble in my opinion. So, because there was a mass exodus of accounts they were having a hard time fill orders so file your 8A detailing you're offering more stocks to drum up some money and it falls flat. people read said 8A and see that you dont have cash so the word got out and the consumers made a bank run. Dont get it twisted either this can happen to any commercial bank JP Morgan, BofA, Chase, Citi, Credit Suisse and the like. a bank run is when the majority of depositors want their money back now and they do it in close succession of each other forcing the bank to say "we dont have your money" so they in essence "run" to the "bank" to get their worthless paper. Now, what i just learned is back in '08 our amazing government passed legislation basically stating they will no longer bail out banks. (honestly if you guys know the piece of legislation please post it in the comments) I agree with this legislation because when I lost 15k on a bad USDCHF trade 7-8 years ago the government didnt bail me out. that was all my money... just gone in a matter of seconds. So the US government came out and said " we will make sure all depositors will get their monies back... How? step in Bail-Ins And again a bail in is something i literally just learned about... i swear at this point were just making -ish up at this point... ok so we know what a bail out is... basically the US government funnels all this cash into a failing business(s) and the tax payer picks up the tab. so what is a bail-in?... glad you asked a bail-in is when the depositors pick up the tab... How? well the FDIC picks up the first $250K and anything over that 250K is now funneled into bank to help offset the loss. so if you have $500K in the bank the first $250K is yours... uncle sam gives it back via FDIC (which that money has been long gone spent, so i dont know where theyre going to pull money from to keep this facade of the FDIC up) and the next $250K is the banks... So congratulations you have just become a unwillingly silent partner of a failing bank. -ishy news is that the current administration is trying to give more power back to the IRS and bring it back to its glory days like it was in the 80's so you wont be able to claim those losses on your taxes, if you had a business friendly administration you might actually have a fighting chance. i have a feeling the whole world is watching what is about to happen, because the entire banking system relies on high value accounts. if the US says tough luck that might send uneasy shock waves to all the high income earners and might make them want to pull their funds out of the banking system... there is a very interesting article on Credit Suisse that i want to read so ciao!
TVC:US10Y
by ARegularGuy
1
US02Y: BOND MELTDOWN / 4.00% CROSS / MACD CONVERGENCE / RSIDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a simple MACRO ANALYSIS on current bond market meltdown where the US02Y dropped nearly 25% within FIVE TRADING SESSIONS. POINTS: 1. US02Y deviation is simple & marked at every 1% difference as bonds rise and fall within the same range percentage therefore it has a rubber band like price action relationship with it's lowest 1% points. 2. Overlapping Orange Line represents ES1! a US Market Future. 3. Dotted Green Lines represent continuous downward momentum in past Bear Markets (2002 & 2008). 4. Bubbles overlapping dotted green lines represent initial break of supporting bond percentage %. IMO: In my opinion the most concerning factor to take into consideration when it comes to current bond positioning is the STEEP RISE IN PERCENTAGE especially when the overall US market momentum is tied to BOND PERCENTAGE during both RISES & FALLS & the STEEPER THE INCLINE THE STEEPER THE DECLINE can become. MACD: Notice a complete meltdown of Bonds when MACD confirms convergence to MEDIAN & eventually breaks past median and falls into into negative territory. RSI: Notice that unlike in other recessions RSI levels have seen more consistent exposure to MEDIAN of 50. But as of lately from a MACRO perspective that is not the case as we have seen current RSI levels linger around 70 or above in EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY. SCENARIO #1: In a very BEARISH scenario we come to see BONDS PERCENTAGE go through a complete free fall. SCENARIO #2: In a less BEARISH scenario we come to see BONDS PERCENTAGE go through an extended consolidation phase with PERCENTAGE LINGERING ABOVE 4%. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com TVC:US02Y
TVC:US02YShort
by DGSTBROKERACC
Who would you trust with your money?Spoiler alert: More evidence against NDQ in this idea! US Companies are organized in clusters, some of them are DJI, SPX, RUT, NDQ etc. Some of them are more trustworthy than others. And by that I mean which of these sets one can depend on. DJI is indeed a dependable group of companies, the so called Blue Chips. Composed of the 30 largest US Companies. These companies aren't playing around, they have deep foundations that can withstand the worst of crises. The opposite of foundation is hollow ground. In finance, one hollow ground could be derivatives. More info about the possible repercussions of derivatives in my last idea: Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction. -Warren Buffett I have talked about how you should not blindly trust the price of the main indices. And as we know, the effect of derivatives is embedded in the price we see every day in our Watchlists. Equity price is a victim of derivatives. You know, these derivatives which by default have no foundation and are susceptible to a possible crash like the .com bubble. Let's hope a ".options" crash doesn't come for derivatives. And if it does, let's hope that the "weapons of mass destruction" was a figure of speech! So how big is their effect? BIS warned about the hidden debt, the "everything bubble" we have created and we are comfortably sitting inside it. Buffett has warned about derivatives. The only thing I can analyze is these hyperbolic charts, namely SQQQ (short QQQ) and it's cousins DOG (short DJI) and SPXU (short SPX). To remotely begin to make sense of their nature, we have to reduce their exponent. Dividing a chart by an arbitrary amount doesn't "flatten" it to a lower growth scale. We will have to raise SQQQ to 0.2 for example to bring it down to meaningful and comparable levels. I tried normalizing these 3 beasts, using the following methodology: For the entire history of SQQQ we calculate the SQQQ^-1 chart, and measure how much it grew in this period. As seen above, SQQQ^-1 increased by 17000x. To make it comparable to QQQ, we progressively increase the exponent so as to make QQQ and SQQQ growths identical. If this explanation didn't make sense, the following chart may clear things out. So we come up with the following "balanced" derivative charts. SPX // SPXU^-0.216 DJI // DOG^-0.62 QQQ // SQQQ^-0.244 WIth the // symbol I mean that these charts move in parallel. So what can we infer from them? More speculation maybe, more questions than answers... But still, there seems to be some important difference between them. I will divide these two charts to make some sense. When the chart increases, the "real" part of the index is increasing. When the chart decreases, the "derivative" part of the index is increasing. So in a sense, the chart increases when indices grow fairly , without cheating using derivatives. First SPX Next DJI Finally QQQ (NDQ) Painful... Is this derivative bubble the only reason NDQ is still afloat in this immense QT environment? In an attempt to keep business going and as money gets scarce, Big Tech is pushing prices higher using an immense amount of derivatives. Are these derivatives going to be the doom of NDQ? All of this may be speculative and some charts may not be financially true. But sometimes, price simply discounts everything. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
AMEX:DOG
by akikostas
10
Possible Crash to 1410? (Alternative Bias)Everyone who has been following us since last year, knows we are bullish on Gold & are still holding buy positions from 1600's. We also have a sell position open from 1953 as a hedge against our buys. However, after seeing price action on Gold recently I believe that there is a possibility for Gold to crash lower towards $1410-$1370 over the next 2-3 years. If you look at the 2 week TF, you can see that Gold reached Wave 3 ($1,920) back in 2011, following a peak of Wave 5 ($2,075) in 2022. If this is correct, we should now see the market crash back as a correction towards the $1400 mark. This also makes sense from a fundamental perspective. If the Federal Reserve keep hiking interest rates over the next year, this'll weaken Gold prices, while strengthening the US Dollar. This analysis is only valid as long as Gold remains below the last high of $2070.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
2
Yields are CRATERING - WHy?The Debt Market is significantly larger than the #stockmarket so it's VERY IMPORTANT what happens there. It's way too early to see data but, JUST A HUNCH, this is most likely the #FED stepping in & buying bonds trying to calm the markets. This is not normal to see #yields cratering so much. The 1Yr is off almost 3.26% The 2Yr is off 5.01 The 10Yr is off 5.33% This is causing more of an inversion to the yield curve. On other news, banks faltering isn't helping the case for stability or easing the fears of #economy being in turmoil.
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
SPX | Early AccessI have posted about this chart before, but I wanted to show it more clearly this time. Above we see SPX, the standard chart. Below we see a custom index I invented, which is VVIX/VIX. It is a neat way to make sense of the chaotic nature of VIX. To clear things out, I have hidden both charts and instead I show an indicator called WLSMA. It is tremendously helpful to smoothen the "fog" the standard chart creates. In the end I will add the link to the inventor. I took great care on drawing these trendlines. I tried to get into the mind of the investor back then, and drew the lines that best made sense, and could provide some actual meaning. On the chart, red arrows are drawn. These are the times when the VVIX/VIX chart violates decisively it's trendline. On the same dates, I created arrows on the SPX chart to get an idea of just how early this method warns us. While this method may not be useful for traders (I am not a trader, I am just passionate analyzing charts), I find it incredibly interesting on how these two correlate, and make actual sense. I find VIX by itself completely useless. Don't get triggered by what I said. How on earth is VIX = 20 a good buy-in strategy? It is as about as useful as RSI getting below 80. Again don't get triggered by it and flame comments down below. Numbers and money don't mean nothing. It is perspective and values that make sense. Now onto some charts: In 2008 we were notified from VVIX/VIX all the way back in February of 2007, and got a confirmation on April of 2007. This is not a typo, 1 year before the GFC. Curiously, this happened when FED's tightening schedule was near it's end. Also interesting is the April-September period of 2008, when the VVIX/VIX chart showed signs of hope when it broke above it's trendline. And compared to now: We can conclude similarly for the 2010-2015 period. And the 2016-2020 period. And the 2020-2023 period of course. Are we approaching this hopeful period before the crisis? A comparison between 2008 and 2023, in the period of deadly hope. Link to the inventor of the WLSMA indicator: Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
4
Gold long analysis to 1854 (SHORT TERM VIEW)📉Gold is currently within a corrective phase. We are seeing this correction take place in an expanded triangle, which normally tends to be complicated, as a way to trap both buyers & sellers. I'm personally not taking this buy, unless I get solid confirmations. I am just waiting for this correction to finish playing out, so our downwards move can continue. We still have sells open & running in profit for our Gold Fund investors📉
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
1
SPX | The Everything BubbleSPX vs Inflation is a chart I explained in the following idea. While this chart showed incredible golden-ratio behavior, there are some periods which stand out. The smooth dance of the ratio throughout the last 100 years, has some quirks (the red ellipses). These periods are not random, they all feature a bubble behavior. It is clear as day that in 1996 the .com bubble formed, which caused SPX to return to trend in 2003. The 2004-2008 stock market growth and the Great Financial Crisis are not apparent, since they are part of The Great 2000 Recession. They are in the middle of a long-term downwards trend. So where does this leave us? If this chart has any meaning, we are in the middle of the air, with incalculable drop for the chart in the future... One target can be pinpointed using probable fib-extensions, using retracements drawn from important highs and lows. It is 12 times lower than now, or 92% drop. It depends on how you look at it... PS. I know that charts don't go back in time. The red arrow is drawn towards the left for aesthetic reasons. Who knows how far downwards is the trend now... PS2. I invented a new name for the Head and Shoulders pattern. I call it Cerberus, the three-headed beast guarding the Underworld. Look at it in action: The tail of Cerberus is a dragon's head spewing flames, which in trading would be a bull-flag. Chart taken from SPY_Master Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
6