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DXY + Federal government Interest payment | BRICS The problem with raising rates to deal with inflation is if you have debt the entire system will seize up. We should be understanding why on earth there is so much interest on Russia at the moment, its because the USA is literally stuck with too much debt, not low enough inflation, BRICS *Russia* notices this and has made a move right in our faces. And honestly Russia have done nothing but want to help throughout history they just want their fair share of resource profits, rightly so too. Middle east / Petrodollar. Russia / BRICS. This will mean the more BRICS + currency is adopted the less power QE in the USD will have meaning more QE until hyperinflation, good luck trying to stop a country with more nuclear weapons than all of us combined. The end of the dollar in its current form could be here before 2030. Gold / BTC sniffing this out. . .
TVC:DXY
by FederalXBT
Tit-for-tat in the green arms race should tighten metal suppliesThe energy transition - the process of moving away from greenhouse gas intense energy consumption towards more renewable energy sources - presents a significant positive demand shock for the metals needed to build out grid infrastructure, distribution and transmission cabling, vehicle charging infrastructure, battery components, solar panels, and wind turbines. However, many nations who are trying to deliver on their promises to meet ‘net zero’ pledges have come to the realisation that much of the supply chain to produce the metals and the green energy components is currently far out of their jurisdiction and sphere of influence. The Covid 19 supply chain disruptions clearly highlighted vulnerabilities in the status quo. That crisis had already started the process of ‘reshoring’ or ‘onshoring’, i.e., moving more of a product supply chain closer to the consumer market. The energy transition is accelerating this trend. Inflation Reduction Act catalyses a global green arms race The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the USA aims to spur investment in domestic green technology. The majority of the $394 billion in energy and climate funding in the IRA is in the form of tax credits with strings attached to local sourcing. While other nations and regions have had some form of domestic sourcing incentives in place, the sheer size and scale of the US approach has inspired others to double-down on their strategies. The European Union’s CRM The European Union has maintained a list of Critical Raw Materials (CRMs) since 2011. CRMs combine raw materials of high importance to the EU economy and of high risk associated with their supply. The list sharpens the focus on supply security. In 2011, the list contained 14 materials and by 2017, in its fourth iteration, the list was 30 strong. In March 2023, the European Commission proposed adding four more raw materials to the list. Aluminium has been added to the list1. In the previous iteration, bauxite – a key ingredient for aluminium production – was included, but the now the finished product of aluminium is on the list. Critical Raw Materials Act In addition to Critical Raw Materials, the Commission has defined Strategic Raw Materials (SRMs)2. Copper and Nickel are additional SRMs (although they are not CRMs). Aluminium is both a CRM and SRM. The European Commission’s Critical Raw Materials Act proposal sets hard targets for domestic capacities in SRMs by 2030: at least 10% of the EU’s annual consumption for extraction at least 40% of the EU’s annual consumption for processing at least 15% of the EU’s annual consumption for recycling no more than 65% of the EU’s annual consumption from a single third country On 30th June 2023, the European Council published its negotiating position3. It wants to raise the bar higher for processing and recycling: at least 40% 50% of the EU’s annual consumption for processing at least 15% 20% of the EU’s annual consumption for recycling The European Parliament has not yet adopted its position and the full negotiation process will likely take time. But based on the Council’s position, negotiations are likely to focus on higher rather than lower local sourcing. China flirts with new resource restrictions China said on 3rd July 2023 it would restrict exports of two metals - gallium and germanium - used in semiconductors and electric vehicles, escalating a technology war with the United States and European Union. However, rather than banning the export of the materials, the proposal is to put in place regulations for companies to obtain export licences for foreign shipments of the metal. The curbs follow USA’s blacklisting of Chinese companies in recent years, aimed at cutting them off from access to US technologies, including the most advanced chips. Our understanding is that EU and Chinese officials are locked in negotiations at the moment to keep the trade channel of these metals open. Conclusions While a slowly evolving process, last week saw several key markers for resource trade restrictions surface. While it’s understandable that many countries want to ensure resource security by controlling more of the supply chains, we believe the process of adjustment will tighten material supply especially as tit-for-tat counter policies are adopted. Sources 1 single-market-economyeceuropaeu/sectors/raw-materials/areas-specific-interest/critical-raw-materials_en 2 17 of the 34 materials are labelled as SRMs 3 consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/06/30/critical-raw-material-act-council-adopts-negotiating-position/ This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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by aneekaguptaWTE
What Events Will Affect Your Trading This Week?Despite a quiet start to the week for the US holidays, there is still plenty going on. The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly kept interest rates at 4.1%, sending the Aussie dollar lower before flying back like a boomerang to where it was trading, at 0.6680 against the USD. On Wednesday (21:00), we get to see the minutes of the FOMC's last meeting, where they held rates at 5.25%. However, the market is pricing in at least two more rate hikes by the end of the year, so traders will be looking for clues in the minutes as to if and when this might happen. With Saudi Arabia announcing an extension to their oil production cuts through to August (and possibly further) and Russia following up with a 500K cut of its own, the price of WTI rallied on Monday before slipping back to $70 a barrel. Keep an eye on US oil inventories (18:00 Thursday) as there was a massive 9 million drawdown last week which surprised the market and could further support the price. On Friday (15:30), the US will release its latest unemployment numbers. Despite seeing an increase of 339K in Non-Farm payrolls last month, there was a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. Canadian unemployment data is also released at the same time, which makes USDCAD particularly volatile over this period. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
Bearish Gold WEEK ?Gold took a hit this week as the dollar rebounded after the Bank of England raised interest rates by half a percentage point — twice more than forecast — saying it needed to act against "significant" indicators that British inflation would take longer to fall. U.K.’s main interest rate is now at 5%, the highest since 2008 after the largest rate increase since February. For me the gold metal will go a little bit down . Wha do you think traders , Am I right ?
TVC:GOLDShort
by ZumixFX
USDJPY LONG & SHORT SETUP - US NEWSDuring the European session, the US/JPY pair remains stagnant, trading within a limited range just below the significant resistance level of 140.00. The market is characterized by volatile fluctuations as investors adopt a cautious approach in anticipation of the upcoming release of US inflation data. In London, S&P500 futures have gained as investors hope the Fed will delay interest rate hikes and weaken the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index reached a two-week low at 103.21 due to expectations of a neutral interest rate policy and softening US inflation. Analysts predict May's CPI will remain unchanged, but core inflation will stay strong. The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its interest rate policy, aiming for inflation above 2%. Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
US 10Y yield chart - key levels to watch ahead of dataWe have a big week of data US inflation figures are released tomorrow and are likely to show a continued disinflationary trend, with the headline rate falling to 4.1%. This will help the Fed remain on pause for the Wednesday rate decision. The major level to watch to our mind is the tentative downtrend drawn from the October 2022 high. This comes in at 3.88. The market has been sidelined for months but is building a potential bullish consolidation pattern and that idea will be reinforced should a close above the 3.88 downtrend be seen.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
USDCAD Potential Forecast | 7th June 2023 Fundamental Backdrop BOC monetary policy statement today, expected to maintain. Potential bearish pressure coming into USDCAD if BOC hikes. Technical Confluences Near term resistance level at 1.36374. Near term support level 1.33166. Idea We believe that the BOC will maintain interest rates and this will solidify the notion that USDCAD will remain in a range-bound market. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
by OlympusLab
AUDUSD Potential Forecast | 6th June 2023 Fundamental Backdrop RBA hike rates by 0.25bps today, resulting in strong bullish momentum. RBA hiking rates highlights the stubborn level of inflation that AUD faces. Technical Confluences Near term resistance level at 0.67066 where price can potentially react to. 0.67066 will serve as a point of target. Idea Will wait for retracement before entering onto longs. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Long
by OlympusLab
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 5th June 2023 Fundamental Backdrop ISM Services PMI forecast at 52.6 with 51.9 previous. EUR Services PMI along with ECB Lagarde speaking may induce volatility in the market. Hawkish tone will result in bullish momentum in EURUSD, vice versa. Technical Confluences Resistance level at 1.0765 where price has rejected. Support level at 1.0533 which could be a potential target. Price is currently on a downtrend and we will be looking for shorts. Idea Will wait for retracement before entering onto shorts. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab
XAUUSD Potential Forecast | 5th June 2023 Fundamental Backdrop ISM Services PMI forecast at 52.6 with 51.9 previous. Technical Confluences Resistance level at 1983 Support level at 1946 Price is currently hovering around the support level and we could potentially see rejection off this level Idea Monday asian session, hence will wait for price to stabilise before entering onto any trade. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OlympusLab
US-Oil 28th mayTurning our attention to US-Oil as our second highlighted pair this week, we've witnessed a complete reversal in order flow. However, I anticipate another change in the upcoming week. There are two possible scenarios: either we continue with the current bullish momentum, further accumulating liquidity, or we reach the upper range boundary and switch to a bearish outlook. Our strategy involves monitoring the 15-minute swing range and assessing if it aligns with the order flow on lower time frames. If there is confirmation, we will consider shorting oil, aiming for the significant weekly level (SWL) on the 15-minute chart as our primary target. Considering the overall fundamentals, over the weekend, the US has reached a deal to extend and increase their debt default. This development suggests the potential for a substantial market movement upon the opening. We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
TVC:USOIL
by PipSurfingSociety
Macro Catalysts Looming over BTCThere are several macro catalysts looming that are expected to play out in the next days and next couple of weeks. - DEBT Ceiling - FEDNOW launch - SEC vs Ripple FED and US TREASURY - DEBT Ceiling The United States Treasury is going broke, the FED is broke and banks are crumbling. The market crash actually started back in September 2019 when the yield curve inverted (www.investopedia.com). The "Debt ceiling" cannot be raised indefinetly and at some point US will most likely have to default unless they reach a deal like they did in 2011. Image 1: fred.stlouisfed.org The FED is basically a bank that has assets and liabilities. Their profits are funnelled into the US government. Since August 2022 they have recorded over $60 billion in losses. Image 2: Image 2 The balance sheet of the Treasury shows how much money the US government has. After the COVID printer went crazy the balance sheet reached $1.8 trillion and has now plummeted to $100 billion. The US government is the ultimate PONZI, in order to pay their debts they need to keep borrowing. To make it worse the borrow estimates for Q1 2023 where about $500 billion but ended up being double that at about $1 trillion. This goes to show how the US is no longer in control and cannot predict what is to come. Image 3: www.bloomberg.com Bloomberg did a piece on Gold and assets that according to their survey will do well if US defaults. Data is based on 670 participants. Interesting to see that Bitcoin is considered to be a good BUY in that event. During a financial crisis, commodities such as Gold, Silver and Platinum have been the "go to" assets along with the YEN and Swiss Franc. It seems like Bitcoin is moving from a Risk-On asset to more of a commodity. FEDNOW Launching www.federalreserve.gov Another important upcoming catalyst is the FEDNOW banking system which goes live July 1st. This is kind of a precursor to CBDC. The question here is, how well will this function and is there any risk of bugs? All software is vulnerable, and a small bug can lead to huge implications because banks will not be able to move money if a bug happens. It is important that the system runs smoothly because on the same date another major catalyst is at play. - LIBOR to SOFR transition. LIBOR (London Inter Bank. Overnight Rate) is a group of banks that determines the interest rate on loans, this has been done in London as per the LIBOR The US wants to move to SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) , they want to have more control. We are talking about approximately $650 trillion worth of assets that will have to migrate. The rate on the SOFR is set by the Overnight Rates. Taking the FEDNOW and SOFR together, if a bug happens with the FEDNOW software, banks will not be able to move money. This would mean that the Rates will skyrocket. SEC vs RIPPLE - Hinman documents cointelegraph.com Another potential catalyst is the 2.5 year long case between SEC and Ripple. Recently Ripple convinced the court to force the SEC to reveal the Hinman documents. Hinman is a former SEC director who reportedly stated that ETH is not a security because "it is sufficiently decentralized." But since the documents are sealed it is uncertain what is exactly ment by this statement. Ripple believes revealing this document can help them win their case. Ripple winning this case could potentially be one of the most bullish catalysts to have impacted the crypto market. The public release was supposed to be June 6 but is now set for June 13. Important Dates: JUNE 1 Yellen states that it is likely that the treasury will not be able to satisfy all obligations as early as June 1 JUNE 13 - Hinman Documents made public - Inflation figures for May released JUNE 14 - FED announcement on interest rates decision JULY 1 - LIDOR to SOFR migration - FEDNOW launches
by Suneater69
U.S. National Debt U.S. default A topic that has been stirring people's minds in recent months is the U.S. debt ceiling. The general public is asking the question: "Will the national debt ceiling be raised or will the U.S. default?" The national debt is the result of the government's financial borrowing to cover the budget deficit. And, as you might have guessed, these borrowings must be paid for. For the last ~100 years, the U.S. has existed on borrowed capital by placing Treasury bonds. And there is a purely nominal borrowing limit, which in fact America has raised 45 times in the last 40 years so that it can borrow more and more and more. And if they don't, the Treasury will no longer be able to issue debt securities and will only have to cover their expenses with cash balances from their balance sheet. Spoiler: no money to pay off your own debt 💡Logical conclusion. The national debt ceiling will be raised anyway, and all the current discussions have only political overtones and have nothing to do with the real economic model of the states. Consequently, no teeth-grinding default and collapse of the global financial system should be expected How will the increase in state debt affect the cryptocurrency market? -If you're interested, put + www.usdebtclock.org Best regards EXCAVO
FRED:GFDEBTNLong
by EXCAVO
29
ASTROLOGY REPORT: Buy Bitcoin BEFORE June 8th!!!!!!!!!!!!I am using astrology to let you know that this is extremely serious. This video is NOT about technical analysis. This video is 100% about what is going on with the world news at the moment. The US default glooming news at the doors is real, and I am using astrology to prove it is indeed real and needs to be taken serious. You have to Buy bitcoin NOW, or at least before June 8th. This date will mark the start of the most BULLISH movement ever happened for bitcoin. Balaji was right, but not 100% right. Watch the video. Follow me for more ideas like this, and share your feedback here. thanks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ChemastroOfficial
3
XAUUSD Potential Forecast | 17th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop US Retail Sales comes out at 0.4% compared to previous print of -0.7%, highlighting the continued resilience of the US economy. This further supports the hawkish stance from Fed and is bearish for GOLD. Technical Confluences Liquidity building at 1970 where price can potentially tap into H4 support level at 1960 which can serve as a potential target zone Idea With the DXY expected the strengthen in the short term, we are anticipating XAUUSD to continue its bearish momentum to test the support at 1960. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by OlympusLab
1