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URBN

001 Piggish_Play - Bearish Strangle on Urban Outfitters (URBN)NASDAQ:URBN TRADE OVERVIEW: Entry Date: Monday - Tuesday, May 25th - 27th, 2020 Ticker: {URBN} Sector: Retail - Apparel STRATEGY AND POSITION DETAILS: Strategy: Aggressive Bearish Strangle Main Position: 80 PUTS $17.50 Strike Expiration (5/29) N/A Offset Position: 10 CALLS $20.00 Strike Expiration (6/19) N/A FUNDAMENTAL REASONING: Aside from the entire sector missing street estimates by an average of triple digits (both top and bottom line), URBN is the clear choice for worst Q1 performance, missing consensus estimates by over 500%. The only award they won was providing the bleakest Q2 guidance in the sector. This company is either going bankrupt or will be struggling to survive for the next three quarters. I do not see a bullish fundamental argument. Finally, very recent analyst estimates have been slowly teasing down throughout the weekend. Once I see an actual “Sell” rating, it’s all over, in my opinion. TECHNICAL REASONING: Triple-top formed and confirmed on Friday with heavy headline resistance . Volume speaks volumes - red days simply have several times more volume than green days. The gap from 17.50 to prior peaks is simply insurmountably high, given the recent lack of fundamental confidence. To that point, I believe that the sideways trend is now long enough to align with pre-COVID highs where the 3rd Cycle Wave down can begin. Also, I believe that both URBN and the major indices are experiencing heavy buying exhaustion, which leads me to believe that a corrective week is coming. The tailwind from the broader market pullback will likely be the final push down for this stock. POSSIBLE PITFALLS: The stock is broadly oversold and tends to bounce violently at lows. Look back at the 5-year chart for evidence of the power behind these bounces. My logic is that if it does get a sustained and powerful bounce, it will continue to 20 and beyond. The call options have more time value, and thus, act as a perfect hedge in case the broader market surges over the next coming weeks. BOTTOM LINE: Polar Bear Candidate of the Year - I cannot find any reason to be bullish from a fundamental perspective. Buy short-term PUTS & offsetting calls for an aggressive strangle this week that can yield 5-6X given the clear 12 dollar target.
NASDAQ:URBNShort
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
3
Urban Outfitters Technical AnalysisGo short for a short term investment - Most likely it will move sideways as the majority of the stocks in the same business of Urban Outfitters. Fundamental Analysis Urban Outfitters — The clothing retailer’s stock tumbled 5% in extended trading after the company released its first-quarter financial results. Urban Outfitters reported a loss of $1.41 per share on revenue of $588 million, missing analysts’ expectations of a loss of 29 cents per share with revenue of $627 million, according to Refinitiv. The retailer’s comparable retail net sales dropped 28% from the same period last year, a decrease driven by store closures from the coronavirus, according to a company statement. Urban Outfitters also reported that its preliminary gross profit dollars decreased by 95.6% to $11.8 million.
NASDAQ:URBNShort
by Mauriello
$URBN Breaks Trend Line Support, Look Out Below$URBN has broken key trend line support and is set for lower prices. Add in the overwhelming bearish sentiment among retailers and we could go a lot lower than investors think. After reporting Q3 earnings last night, here are the highlights: Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) slides after a slight miss with its Q3 report. Comparable retail segment net sales rose 3% during the quarter, driven by growth in the digital channel which helped to offset negative retail store sales. Comparable retail segment sales: Free People +9%, Urban Outfitters flat growth and Anthropologie Group +4%. Wholesale segment net sales fell 7%. Gross margin was 32.5% of sales vs. 32.7% consensus and 34.7% a year ago. SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales rose 10 bps to 24.9%. Comparable retail segment inventory increased 9% at cost during the quarter. "Looking ahead to Q4, we’re encouraged by positive sales-to-date but realize our highest volume days have yet to be written," says Urban Outfitters CEO Richard Hayne. As always, use protective stops and trade with caution. Good luck to all!
NASDAQ:URBNShort
by InsiderFinancial
URBN Bullish Channel. PT $40-$50URBN is incredibly strong fundamentally and is in a very predictable upward trend. Forming golden cross (when 50 day moving average crosses up and over the 200 day moving average) What makes a company fundamentally strong? Taken from various sources including Warren Buffet, here are some things we should look for: (URBN numbers in parenthesis) A Debt/Equity ratio less than 0.5 ( ZERO ) A Current Ratio >1.5 (1.6) Return on Equity >15-20% (17.8%) Price to Sales Ratio <2.2 (0.72) Price to Book Ratio <3.3 (2.17) Strong stocks usually have a large amount of insider owning. (37.7%) These are just some fundamentals that strong stocks frequently have. Earnings are coming up soon. URBN should have a strong run and has potential to hold through earnings for larger gains. With these amazing financial fundamentals and a clear upward trend on the daily, weekly and monthly chart, I feel confident it will hit at least $40 with the potential for $50 depending on the area of resistance.
NASDAQ:URBNLong
by TheGoatTrade
URBN 1D RANGE TRADERanges, Descending Triangles, Triangles and Ascending Triangle are repeatable trading chart patterns. Ranges and Triangles are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction. Ascending and descending chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend. Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern. What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart). Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place. Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement. When you see descending volume bars and descending atr line (which indicates volatility) this shows a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern. Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close. 1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line). a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size. b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. 2 - Enter two trades. 3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR. 4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR. 5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price. 6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven. 7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price. *8 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open. a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size. b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open. c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade. d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
NASDAQ:URBN
by Tradingstrategyguides
THE WEEK AHEAD: URBN (WHAT?! THAT'S IT?!)Unfortunately, there isn't much next week earnings wise that renders itself to quality premium selling, with nothing appearing in screens where I'm looking for underlyings that are not only liquid from an options standpoint, but also whose implied volatility is at least in the 70th percentile over the past six months and background implied volatility is greater than 50%, as these make for the best volatility contraction plays post-earnings. URBN EARNINGS There is one stock that meets those criteria, however, and that is URBN, with an implied volatility rank of 95 (6-month) and a background implied volatility of 54. It announces earnings on Tuesday after market close, so look to put on a play on Tuesday before the end of the session. Preliminary, here are the possible setups and what they're paying: The March 17th 24.5/28 short strangle (30 delta) brings in 1.40 at the door; its defined risk counterpart (the 21.5/24.5/28/31) iron condor, brings in a 1.00. I would manage these both at 35% max given the "tightness" of the setup. The 23.5/29 short strangle (20 delta) brings in .88 (shoot for 50% max). Going iron condor with the shorts at the 20-delta brings in less than 1/3rd the width of the wings, so I probably wouldn't go that route. The naked short strangle, I would look to manage at 50% max. The March 17th 26/26 brings in 2.80 at the door; its defined risk counterpart (a 22/26/26/30.5 iron fly), 2.33. I'd look to manage these a 25% max. The 23 delta short put at 23.5 brings in .45 at the mid. These are off hours quotes, so the credit received may not be as sexy at NY open ... . OTHER STUFF I keep watching that VIX, either to get into as a stand alone trade or to wade into broad market instruments for premium. Things were looking up in the middle of the week, only to cave in Thursday's and Friday's sessions. With my decaying theta pile thinning out somewhat here, I may throw in the towel, bend to the market's "animal spirits," and consider some low volatility environment setups (diagonals, probably) here ... .
TVC:VIX
by NaughtyPines