Crude Oil Rising Momentum🛢️ CRUDE Oil!
⛽Price rebounds from $83 to $88 amid Middle East tensions and oil supply threats. 🌍 Geopolitical risks loom large; brace for a potential breakout!
Crude Oil Brent
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Will The Gap Be Filled?!🛢️
WTI Oil opened with a huge gap up due to the Israeli - Palestinian conflict.
As you know, the is always up to 80% chance that the gap will be filled.
For us, it can be a nice shorting opportunity.
To trade that with a confirmation, focus on 84.5 - 85.0 area.
That is a minor intraday support that is based on gap close level
and recent historical price action.
My bearish confirmation will be a 4H candle close below that - its breakout.
I will anticipate a bearish movement to 83.1 - gap opening level.
As always, pay close attention to events.
A new higher higher higher close will indicate the escalation of the conflict.
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trifor || XAUUSD-10/09/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The extreme trading idea for gold worked out perfectly. At the moment, the local strengthening of the metal is likely to continue, this will be facilitated by the technical and fundamental factors. We cannot rule out a slight downward movement, as in most major instruments, after which there will most likely be growth with a target of 1870. It is not worth considering higher targets for now, since there is already a high probability of a reversal and a continuation of the fall within the downward trend.
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Strifor || USDCHF-10/09/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: There is a prospect of growth within 1-2 weeks for the USDCHF currency pair. Before this, as we wrote in our last idea for the franc, a slight, shallow fall is expected. You can start shopping now. You can also buy in the area of the level 0.90500. Growth target level 0.91475.
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Strifor || UKOIL-10/09/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: Monday's oil gap surprised everyone, but given this geopolitical background, this is not surprising in principle. The strengthening of oil is most likely short-term and a fall can be expected soon. Most likely it will be in the middle of this week. The goal of the fall will, of course, be closing the gap, and even moving lower.
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Crude Oil (WTI): Preparing For Reversal 🛢️
WTI Crude Oil closed, testing a major horizontal daily support.
The price formed an inverted H&S pattern on that on an hourly time frame.
Your bullish confirmation next week will be a bullish breakout of 83.37 level - its horizontal neckline. Hourly candle close above will confirm the violation.
A bullish continuation will be expected to 84.51 / 85.41 levels then.
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TradePlus-Fx|EURUSD: drop once again💬 Description: The approach to the daily level of 1.05194 has been realized and is currently being tested. Sellers are still strong, and sell-trades are still given priority. It should be noted that the euro resists the fall more successfully than anyone else, but it is unlikely that this currency will ignore the retest of local lows, namely 1.04500 . This area has many purchases; whether they will be able to protect themselves is a big question. Therefore, today's intraday sales are being considered in order to approach the indicated area of support. The idea may take 1-2 days.
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WTI Crude Oil All Time Chart. Does History Repeat Itself..?!I'm writing this article, because of the striking resemblance with Today's oil and the one that has been a lot of times before..
I believe that history repeats itself, and there are lessons to be learned. And since this boom and bust cycle are not new, it might also provide some understanding on where we are heading.
I hope you enjoy.
The time of dinosaurs
In the 1850s the whale fisheries had failed to keep pace with the mounting need for illuminating oil, forcing the price of whale oil higher and making illumination costly for ordinary Americans. Only the affluent could afford to light their parlors every evening.
There were many other lighting options such as lard oil among others but no cheap illuminant that burned in a bright, clean, safe manner.
George Bissell, considered as the father of the American oil industry, had the intuition that oil that was plentiful in western Pennsylvania could be a first rate illuminant. The slimy liquid was so ubiquitous that it tainted well water and plagued local contractors drilling for salt.
In 1855, Professor Benjamin Silliman from Yale produced a report that vindicated Bissell's hunch that oil could be distilled to produce a fine illuminant (like kerosene), plus a host of other useful products. As a result, Bissel and his company, Seneca Oil Company (formerly the Pennsylvania Rock Oil Company) needed to dispatch someone to Pennsylvania to look for large pools of oil.
First oil drilled in America
That man was Colonel Edwin Drake, known as the first to successfully drill for oil. Drake arrived in Titusville, Oil Creek Valley. Oil was known to exist here, but there was no practical way to extract it. Its main use at that time had been as a medicine for both animals and humans. Natives used it for war paint and for soothing skin liniment. It took a couple years but Drake struck oil in 1859.
This was the beginning of a pandemonium. Bands of fortune seekers and speculators streamed into Titusville and other oil-related businesses quickly exploded on the scene.
I guess we can call this the Klondike of oil, as a beginning of Global Industrialization Era.
Mr. Rockefeller was known as the co-founder of the Standard Oil Company and was the world's richest person. Crude oil jumped multi X times in 1860s from approximately 50cents per barrel in early 1860s to over 3 dollars in late 1860s.
Additionally, I would like to note that crude oil fluctuated between $10 and 10¢ a barrel in 1860! Adjusted for inflation, Mr. Rockefeller fortune upon his death in 1937 stood at $336 billion according to Fortune (in 2008 U.S. dollars).
Similar how crypto enthusiasts built their wealth in 2010s, right? 😉
Pump and Dump
By the late 1860s, there was a slump in the oil industry, keeping it depressed for the next five years. Low kerosene prices, a boon to consumers, were catastrophic for refiners, who saw the profit margin between crude and refined oil prices shrink to a vanishing point.
Worse, the oil market wasn't correcting itself according to the self-regulating mechanism described by neoclassical economists. Producers and refiners didn't shut down operations in the expected numbers.
John D. Rockefeller said "So many wells were flowing that the price of oil kept falling, yet they went right on drilling." Rockefeller tirelessly mocked those "academic enthusiasts" and "sentimentalists" who expected business to conform to their tidy competitive models.
One Hundred Years of Resistance for $4
According to the standard model of competition, as oil prices fell below production costs, refiners and producers should have shutdown.
But the oil market didn't correct itself in this manner because refiners and producers carried heavy bank debt and other fixed costs and by operating at a loss they could still service some debt. Each refiner, pursuing his own self-interest, generated collective misery.
Does it sound like today's crypto news, right? 😉
The U.S. drilling activity didn't slow down after hot 1860s as much as expected and a lot of producers are still pumping oil to avoid defaulting on their loans..
There was World War I in 1914-18, and total number of military and civilian casualties was around 40 million - around 20 million deaths and 21 million wounded. 😓
There was World War II in 1939-45, and total number of military and civilian casualties estimated around 50 - 56 million.. 😓
Crude oil prices jumped again, and again. But still remained below $4 until 1970s, as there were no all time peaks in crude oil after super hot 1860s.
Money-printing Era Breaks the Rules
The gold standard was the basis for the international monetary system from the 1870s to the early 1920s, and from the late 1920s to 1932 as well as from 1944 until 1971 when the United States unilaterally terminated convertibility of the US dollar to gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system, that has been resulted with huge inflation all over the world within further decades..
Technical pictures at the main WTI crude oil chart illustrates, oil price are on the sustainable path since then, with huge bullish accelerations within local and global conflicts, like Arab-Israeli War in 1973, 9/11 attacks in 2001 and Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.
Nowadays
Knee-jerk surge’ happens again, and again, so oil experts repeatedly predict market impact of new 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict.
Crude oil price sees a spike on early Monday trading Oct 9, 2023 so the overall impact of the attack on Israel by Palestinian militants Hamas has yet to consider...
In a conclusion.. Does history repeat itself..
Certainly "Yes". As lessons of history still remain unlearned.
Odd things in the oil market, reminiscent of 2022 market topRecently, more and more financial institutions have been upgrading their price targets for oil. Mostly, these forecasts were upward of $100 per barrel, with JP Morgan and some other financial entities forecasting prices as high as $150 in the coming months. About three weeks ago, we tweeted that these statements are very reminiscent of those made in the second quarter of 2022 when many of the same corporations upgraded their forecasts right at the market top (to $150, $200, etc., depending on the entity). While $100 per barrel could be in play if OPEC and OPEC+ (mainly referring to Saudi Arabia and Russia in this regard) manage to maintain production cuts and the U.S. stops releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, we are very skeptical about the ultra bullish calls out there.
The first reason for our view is that if the global economy continues slowing down and heads into recession, we will likely see oil demand falling. The second one, which surprises us, is that the Biden administration has not started filling up Strategic Petroleum Reserves despite planning to do so earlier this year (plus, despite oil falling below $70), which makes us wonder why the administration is not buying. Could it be that they completely miscalculated their game and missed the chance, or are they expecting a better opportunity to come (supposedly better than $64 per barrel)? We honestly do not know, but it is very odd, to say the least.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the monthly chart of U.S. crude oil production. From the start of 2023 through June 2023, U.S. crude oil production has grown by more than 500,000 barrels per day (by more than 4%).
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
UKOIL Wave AnalysisHello Traders, Base on technical and wave analysis we see this scenario for #UKOIL for next move. let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Good Moment to Buy 🛢️
WTI is testing a key horizontal support.
The price formed a tiny double bottom on that on an hourly time frame
and violated its neckline, giving us a nice bullish confirmation.
I expect a pullback from the underlined blue area to 0.894 / 0.900
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The Oil "belong to" UK finally reached 96.80 +/-. 2/Oct/23UK Brent Crude Oil finally reached 96.80 +/- as posted idea on 23/Feb/23. What Next to the "mother of all inflation"?
Crude Oil ~ 4H Swing V2 (Sept-Oct)Updated 30/09/23:
- Revised up-trending parallel (green)
- Added down-trending/consolidation parallel (white)
- Added horizontal lines (yellow/dashed) to mark upper/lower range (94.239-87.829)
Everything else stays the same (chartist holy grail lol).
Notes:
- Further write-up on Daily Swing V2 Chart
- Faded out longer TF parallel lines (light blue)
TradingView has a sh*tty chart bug where any trend-lines drawn on longer TF become misaligned when you switch to shorter TFs.
Temporary workaround = set "Opacity" on affected lines to "0%" before publishing & restore afterwards so you don't have to manually erase/re-draw...just remember where you drew them to begin with lol.
Crude Oil ~ Daily Swing V2 (Sept-Oct)Updated 30/09/23:
- Revised up-trending parallel (green)
- Added down-trending/consolidation parallel (white)
- Added horizontal lines (yellow/dashed) to mark upper/lower range (94.239-87.829)
Everything else stays the same (chartist holy grail lol).
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE has done an amazing job respecting its upward parallel channel since June.
Could see period of consolidation (foreshadowed by prev price action) into lower trend-line before deciding whether to push higher towards Golden Fib (break upper trend-line), or capitulate to global recession fears & collapse towards 200DMA/23.6% Fib, TBC.
Price action would be biased towards upside given OPEC+ bullish manipulation, however OPEC+ would also be hyper-vigilante on excessive Crude Oil prices which could threaten demand destruction - hence why they opted to review production cuts on a monthly basis to maintain price/economic stability.
Strifor || USDCHF-09/29/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: You can also take a closer look at dollar purchases on the USDCHF currency pair. Here, by the way, we also worked out the last short perfectly, and fell even below our target to the level of 0.91475. Today, against the background of the morning sale of the dollar, one can take a closer look at buying it. For this pair, the best setup for this would be to update today's low.
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Strifor || UKOIL-09/29/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The bearish sentiment for oil still continues. We remind you that our last short trading idea worked 100%. Now the seller’s task is to break through the support zone around level 92. Most likely this will happen in the very near future. The more global target of this sale is, of course, the level of 90.72.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI) Detailed Technical Outlook 🛢
I received a lot of questions about WTI Crude Oil.
Analyzing a weekly time frame, we can spot that the market is currently
approaching a significant supply zone.
Even though we see a strong bullish rally since the beginning of summer,
I will anticipate a further growth only after a bullish violation of that entire area: 92.5 - 97.8.
Alternatively, analyzing a daily time frame, we can identify a recent retracement from the underlined red area and a strong daily support that was nicely respected.
At the moment, I also see a completed cup & handle pattern there.
A bearish breakout of its neckline - daily candle close below 87.5 will be your bearish confirmation.
I am monitoring oil closely and if I see a good trading setup, I will definitely share that with you.
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Crude Oil ~ 4H Swing Chart (Sept-Oct)CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE chart mapping/analysis for short-term swing trades.
Crude Oil ~ Daily Swing Chart (Sept-Oct)CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE chart mapping/analysis for med-long term swing trades.
Crude Oil ~ Intraday Inverse H&S PopCAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE inverse H&S development on 15min chart, TBC.
Breakout above ~91.10 for confirmation. Capitulation below ~89.50 (right shoulder) invalidates pattern.
TP target ~93.50 upper trend-line confluence.
Strifor || XAUUSD-09/19/2023Preferred direction: Neutral
Comment: The previous Gold trade worked out perfectly and a profit has already been made here as well. There are not many points left until the final goal and most likely this point will be completed today. At a minimum, the transaction is closed with partial profit and moved to break-even. The market, as was said in the previous idea, is awaiting for the Fed’s decision, so we most likely will not see good setups until Thursday.
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Strifor || EURUSD-09/19/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: In general, the situation with the euro has not changed locally; the instrument is still under the control of sellers, but there is no clear entry point yet. As long as the price is below the level of 1.07500, sales will be a priority in any case. The market is awaiting the Fed's decision on Wednesday, and against this background, no particularly good setups for entering the currency pair have been spotted.
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Strifor || UKOIL-09/19/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The last oil trade aimed at a short-term fall (counter-trend movement) successfully closed with a profit. At the moment, a sell setup has also formed, and here most likely the rollback will be deeper. The correction potential lies at the level of 92.50.
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