TESLA: 2-Hour Order Block Support - Green Close Expected! 📈🟢Explore the potential of Tesla stock on a 2-hour timeframe, where it might find support at an order block, signaling an upside move. There's optimism for a green close today, adding an exciting element to the market dynamics.
Trading decisions should align with thorough research, and market conditions can change rapidly. Keep an eye on Tesla's 2-hour chart for potential opportunities and adapt your strategy accordingly.
Note: We are not responsible for any profit or loss resulting from trading decisions. Trade responsibly and consider consulting a financial advisor. Dive into the Tesla market, navigate the charts, and stay informed with this analysis. 🚗💹 #TESLA #StockAnalysis #UpsidePotential #GreenCloseExpected
Tesla Motors (TSLA)
tesla ---> short position hello guys...
I had previously signaled the Tesla shorts, but the previous series reached $102:
as you can see tesla engulfed two supply and demand zones and it is so possible if it touche next one! ($70 level)
now the price is on the descending trendline and QML as well
I believe the downward is so probable!
let's see what happens,
by the way, the first target is $107
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If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them.
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$SPY $470 Target by 3/1 💭 $483 by Friday 2/8 $470 by 3/1 $460?
Essentially it might be extremely dangerous trying to swing weeklies but it could very well be beneficial to swing Monday $490 Puts. Depending on SPY price by Wednesday, they could pay large amounts as I see the move happening in just 2-3 days, somewhere between Tuesday 2/6 and Monday 2/12, expect $478.
This image here is from the March 23' BTFP run into the end of July 23'.
Resemblance should not be ignored.
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TESLA: Long Trading Opportunity
TESLA
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long TESLA
Entry Point - 187.87
Stop Loss - 172.92
Take Profit - 217.98
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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"Tesla Stock Teeters at Critical Levels" - TSLATSLA Stock: Navigating Critical Support Amidst Growing Concerns
Tesla Inc. (TSLA), once the darling of Wall Street and a symbol of disruptive innovation in the automotive industry, finds itself at a critical juncture as it grapples with mounting pressure from investors and market dynamics. With the stock facing significant headwinds, analysts are closely eyeing key support levels, with $165 emerging as a crucial threshold that could determine the fate of TSLA's trajectory.
Testing Support:
The $165 mark represents a major area of support for TSLA, a level that, if breached, could unleash a cascade of selling pressure, potentially triggering a sharp decline in the stock price. Analysts and market participants have long viewed this level as a critical pivot point, given its historical significance and its role in shaping investor sentiment.
Technical Analysis:
Drawing on technical analysis, TSLA's current price action paints a concerning picture. The stock has encountered staunch resistance at the top of the market, forming what appears to be a triple top pattern. This pattern, characterized by two lower peaks (shoulders) and one higher peak (head), is often interpreted as a bearish signal, suggesting a potential reversal in trend.
Moreover, the $165 level holds added significance as it coincides with the start of the bull run in June 2019, signifying a pivotal point in TSLA's ascent. What was once a stronghold of support has now transformed into a formidable barrier, acting as a barrier to further upside momentum.
Market Sentiment:
Investor sentiment towards TSLA has soured in recent months, as concerns over valuation, execution challenges, and macroeconomic headwinds weigh on the stock. The previous bull run, characterized by extreme growth and exuberance, has left TSLA vulnerable to a correction, with many market participants anticipating a pullback of significant magnitude.
Outlook:
Looking ahead, the consensus among analysts suggests that TSLA is poised for further downside, with the $165 level serving as a make-or-break point. Should the stock fail to hold above this critical support level, the potential for a sharp downturn looms large, with some forecasts suggesting a correction of more than 50%.
While such projections may appear dire, they underscore the importance of risk management and prudent decision-making in navigating turbulent market conditions. Investors are advised to exercise caution and closely monitor TSLA's price action in the coming days and weeks, as developments unfold.
In conclusion, TSLA's stock finds itself at a crossroads, with $165 emerging as a pivotal level that could determine its future trajectory. As market participants brace for a potential breakdown, the need for vigilance and preparedness has never been greater.
Massive Recovery 1/29 and thoughts for TSLA through WeekA huge surprise with a massive recovery today, ending the day with a cup-handle formation, and there is plenty of upside left for TSLA. We may even potentially close up the gap to $208; but I believe it is dependent on a few factors. Here are my thoughts on price action for TSLA this week:
Possibility #1: Run up to 0.5 Fib level $195.41 Tuesday. (Orange arrow)
With major earnings coming (such as MSFT/GOOG on Tuesday) I expect the entire market to go up in anticipation to positive earnings. Since TSLA just bounced off a major support of $180, TSLA is a candidate to move faster than the market (such as today with a 4.3% run vs the S&P500 under 1%.)
We may also have a run up compounded with an anticipation to positive news from Wednesday's FOMC meeting (buy the rumor sell the news.) If given positive news (anything not already priced in) we may even have a run up to closing the gap at $208 later in the week.
Possibility #2: Choppy trading through Tuesday until FOMC (purple line) for the following reasons:
Per Yahoo Finance: "Markets see rates unchanged in January and Predict 48% probability of a rate cut at the next meeting in March." If some expectation is priced in, we may have a low volume day until further confirmation.
Since we just hit ATH on S&P500, investors may be more reluctant in trading and we go side ways until the FOMC meeting. If nothing major comes from the FOMC meeting, we may have continued sideways trading for the rest of the week, bouncing off $188.
I believe possibility 2 is a bit more likely, but not much more than possibility 1. Coming off a recent ATH on S&P500 we may see a retracement overall tomorrow, but options flow on TSLA indicate to me that we are bullish for the week. There is a strong possibility that the market has already priced in rate cuts, so this may lead to a sell the news scenario (we may bounce down to $185-$190 before moving to the next level.)
As of writing, options expiring 1/30 on SPY put/call volume ratio sits at 1.18, open interest ratio at 1.47. (Figures from Barchart)
TSLA options expiring 2/2 have volume put/call ratios at 0.87, open interest ratio at 0.74. (Figures from Barchart)
S&P Futures at -0.025% in the PM. 1/29.
In the news:
First Neuralink chip has been implanted for the first time. (This may bring positive views on Elon and by proxy to TSLA.)
Capital Expenditure of Tesla may decrease from $10 Billion from current fiscal year to $8-10 Billion by fiscal 2025 and 2026 (per Yahoo Finance.)
Two Tesla executives to sell stock, up to 281,116 and 115,500 respective shares (per Yahoo Finance.)
Lastly, my own plan: I may or may not take a position depending how we open in the AM. From the graph, the lines you see to the left of the cup-handle were my previous possibilities I set up from last week. Friday, I was expecting TSLA to retest it's lows and I took some put positions through the weekend. (See ) Sold them immediately in the AM today when a strong bull signal was built, and went calls on SPY (should have gone calls on TSLA instead with that massive recovery, but hindsight is 20/20) I don't plan on holding anything through FOMC for personal risk tolerance reasons. I am a bit reluctant because TSLA has the potential to swing hard, so I may have relatively small positions. This week will be crucial for knowing if we will try for breaking through the upper channel at $240 in the medium to long term (see: ) -OR- we bounce back down to $180.
Those are all my thoughts, I'll update this if I see any interesting news that I find relevant to TSLA this week.
TESLA made a Channel Down bottom. Buy but watch these breakouts.Tesla (TSLA) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the July 19 2023 High (which was an emphatic Lower Highs rejection on the ATH Lower Highs trend-line of the November 04 2021 All Time High) and on our last analysis (January 12, see chart below) we called for a tight SL buy but mentioned the importance of taking the loss quickly if the April 27 2023 trend-line broke and reverse to a sell on a $180.00 Target:
The price did make that bearish break-out and hit $180.00, a level that has been holding since last Thursday. Even though the fundamentals surrounding the company are very volatile, this is a strong medium-term buy opportunity from a technical perspective. Not only is it at the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 7-month Channel Down, but also the RSI is forming an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which is a structure that has been formed on every single bottom since the December 27 2022 market bottom.
In fact the 1D RSI reached last Thursday those exact vastly oversold levels (17.50) it has last seen on that global December 2022 (price bottomed on January 06 2023) market bottom. As a result, there are much more reasons to consider the current level a strong medium-term opportunity than not. The technical target is $245.00, which represents a Lower High level slightly lower than a projected +41% rise (last Lower High was +36%, the one before +31%, so we estimate a +5% progression). We will book the profit earlier though if the 1D RSI hits its Resistance Zone before the price reaches $245.00.
If the uptrend is extended and the price breaks above the ATH Lower Highs trend-line (already has 5 rejections since November 2021), we will take it as a bullish break-out signal and target $315.00, which is the September 21 2022 Triple Top. On the other hand, if the stock closes a 1D candle below the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line of the 7-month Channel Down, we will sell and target $152.50, which is the Support 2 level.
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Advanced Candlestick Pattern AnalysisAdvanced Candlestick Pattern Analysis
Welcome to the intricate world of advanced candlestick patterns, a realm where subtle shifts in market sentiment are captured in the form and structure of candles on a chart. This article delves into some of the more sophisticated patterns that, while less common, offer insightful signals to those who can identify them. For readers eager to try spotting these patterns themselves, FXOpen's free TickTrader platform provides an ideal canvas to practise and observe these formations in real-time markets.
Island Reversal Pattern
The Island Reversal pattern is a distinct formation in advanced candlestick patterns, marked by a gap on both sides of a cluster of candles. This pattern signifies a possible reversal of the current trend. It appears as a small 'island' of trading activity separated by gaps from the larger price movement, indicating a sudden shift in market sentiment.
Traders often view the Island Reversal as a strong signal. They typically wait for confirmation in the form of a price moving away from the 'island' before executing trades. For instance, traders might buy once the price moves above the pattern in a bullish island reversal. Conversely, in a bearish reversal, selling occurs when prices drop below the island. Stop-loss orders are generally placed on the opposite side of the gap, limiting potential losses if the expected trend reversal does not materialise.
Hook Reversal Pattern
The Hook Reversal pattern forms part of advanced candlestick analysis and is characterised by two candlesticks, where the first one aligns with the trend and the second is the opposite. Also, the second candlestick opens and closes within the first one. It can indicate a potential reversal in the current trend, particularly in a highly traded market.
In response, traders often seek additional confirmation before acting, such as a continued movement toward the reversal. For instance, in a Bullish Hook Reversal, they might enter a long position when subsequent candles continue to rise. Stop-losses are commonly set just below the low of the second candle in a bullish reversal or above the high in a bearish reversal to manage risk effectively.
Triple Gap (San-ku) Candlestick Pattern
The Triple Gap (San-ku) candlestick pattern is a notable formation in candlestick chart pattern analysis, often signalling an impending trend reversal. It emerges through three consecutive candlesticks, each marked by gaps between them, reflecting a buildup of momentum. Typically, at least two of these sessions feature notably large candles.
In recognising the San-ku, traders view it as a caution against the prevailing trend's sustainability, acknowledging that such accelerated momentum cannot persist indefinitely. This pattern does not pinpoint the exact reversal moment but indicates its likelihood shortly. Prudent traders often wait for further confirmation, such as a change in direction, before adjusting their positions. Stop-loss orders are strategically placed above a swing high/low to minimise potential losses if the anticipated trend reversal does not materialise promptly.
Kicker Candlestick Pattern
In stock analysis, candlestick patterns like the Kicker play a crucial role. This pattern is characterised by a drastic change in market sentiment, reflected by two candles moving in opposite directions. The first candle follows the current trend, while the second moves sharply in the opposite direction with a price gap, which strengthens the reversal signal.
The Kicker is considered one of the most powerful reversal indicators. For a bullish kicker, traders might initiate a buy when the second candle's upward trend is confirmed, while in a bearish kicker, a sell is considered when the market continues trading downwards after the second candle. Stop-losses are often placed just beyond the start of the second candle to manage risk.
Three Line Strike Pattern
The Three Line Strike pattern, in the realm of trading candlestick analysis, is a unique trend continuation signal. It consists of three consecutive candles following the current trend (either bullish or bearish), followed by a fourth candle that strikes through the range of the first three.
A bullish Three Line Strike starts with three rising green candles, followed by a long red candle that closes below the first candle's open price. This reflects a temporary pullback before the uptrend resumes. Conversely, in a bearish pattern, three falling red candles are followed by a green candle that closes above the first candle's open price, indicating a brief upward correction before the downtrend continues.
Traders typically use this pattern to reinforce their confidence in the prevailing trend. Stop-loss orders are placed just beyond the fourth candle's extreme to protect against unexpected reversals.
Belt Hold Pattern
In the candlestick chart technical analysis, the Belt Hold stands out as a key reversal indicator. It’s characterised by a single, long candlestick that signals a shift in market momentum. In a downtrend, a bullish Belt Hold is represented by a long green candle, opening at its low and closing near its high. This reflects a possible shift to an upward trend. Conversely, during an uptrend, a bearish Belt Hold is identified by a long red candle, opening at its high and closing near its low, indicating a potential reversal to a downward trend.
Traders typically look for additional market confirmation after a Belt Hold emerges before executing trades. For risk management, stop-loss orders are commonly placed just past the extreme end of the Belt Hold candle.
Concealing Baby Swallow
In candle technical analysis, the Concealing Baby Swallow is a rare but noteworthy bearish continuation formation. It consists of four candles in a downtrend, where the first two are black Marubozu candles (candles without shadows), indicating strong selling pressure. The third candle, also black, opens with a gap down. The fourth candle completely engulfs the third and closes within the first candle's body.
This pattern may reflect a strong continuation of the bearish trend, with the fourth candle's engulfing nature indicating the concealment of any bullish attempt to reverse the trend. Traders often interpret this as a signal to maintain or initiate short positions, with stop-loss orders set above the high of the fourth candle.
On-Neck
The On-Neck is a bearish continuation formation in candlestick charting. It typically emerges in a downtrend and is composed of two candles: the first is a red candle, followed by a green candle. The second candle opens lower than the first candle's close and closes near the low or close of the first candle but not below it, creating a pattern that resembles a neck.
This pattern indicates that selling pressure remains dominant despite a brief bullish interlude. Traders often view the On-Neck as a confirmation to continue or initiate short positions, expecting the downtrend to persist. For risk management, a stop-loss is usually placed just above the high of the second candle to protect against potential trend reversals.
The Bottom Line
In conclusion, mastering these advanced candlestick patterns may potentially enhance trading strategies. Each pattern provides unique insights into market dynamics, offering traders valuable tools for decision-making. To apply these concepts in real-world trading, consider opening an FXOpen account, a broker that provides robust platforms and resources to support your trading journey.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
4 Accurate Predictions Made by AI for Tesla (TSLA)In the rapidly evolving landscape of financial markets, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as a pivotal force, transforming traditional trading strategies into sophisticated, data-driven methodologies. This article delves into the role of AI in identifying and capitalizing on market trends, focusing on recent successes in detecting bearish stock patterns in Tesla (TSLA) shares. Through a detailed analysis of three distinct patterns—Cup-and-Handle Inverse, Head-and-Shoulders Top, and Broadening Wedge Ascending—this discussion illustrates how AI technologies, particularly those developed by Tickeron, are reshaping investment approaches.
The AI Revolution in Stock Market Analysis
The integration of AI in stock market analysis marks a significant shift from human-driven decision-making to automated, algorithm-based strategies. AI's capacity to process vast datasets, recognize patterns, and predict market movements is unparalleled. These capabilities enable traders and investors to make more informed decisions, often with higher accuracy and speed than traditional methods.
Tesla's Bearish Patterns
Prediction #1. Downtrend Detected
Cup-and-Handle Inverse Pattern
On December 7, 2023, Tickeron's AI advisor, A.I.dvisor, detected a Cup-and-Handle Inverse pattern in Tesla's stock, indicating a potential bearish turn. Initially priced at $242.64, the stock was monitored closely until December 12, when the bearish trend was confirmed, and a target price was set. By January 12, 2024, Tesla's stock reached the target price of $223.07, offering a 9.83% gain for those who shorted the stock based on the AI's prediction.
Prediction #2. Downtrend Detected
Head-and-Shoulders Top Pattern
Simultaneously, A.I.dvisor identified a Head-and-Shoulders Top pattern for Tesla on the same dates, with the stock also priced at $242.64. This pattern, another indicator of a potential price decline, led to a similar outcome. On January 12, the stock price hit the target of $222.45, again resulting in a 9.83% gain for traders who acted on the AI's advice.
Prediction #3. Downtrend Detected
Broadening Wedge Ascending Pattern
A more recent analysis began on December 14, 2023, when a Broadening Wedge Ascending pattern was detected in Tesla's stock, then priced at $251.05. This pattern, confirmed on January 3, 2024, signaled another bearish trend, culminating in the stock reaching a target price of $233.59 by January 9. This pattern offered traders a 6.44% gain, further showcasing AI's prowess in predicting market movements.
The Role of Tickeron Patterns and AI Robots
Tickeron's innovative approach to market analysis encompasses the development of AI robots capable of scanning the market for specific patterns. These patterns, such as the Cup-and-Handle Inverse, Head-and-Shoulders Top, and Broadening Wedge Ascending, are key indicators of potential market movements. Tickeron's AI robots not only identify these patterns but also provide actionable insights, including target prices and potential gains, thereby equipping traders with the information needed to make strategic decisions.
New Robot factory from Tickeron Trading Results for last 12 months
TSLA
AI Robots (Signals Only)
AI Robot's Name P/L
Swing trader: Downtrend Protection (TA) 73.57%
Trend Trader: Popular Stocks (TA&FA) 37.41%
Day Trader, Popular Stocks: Price Action Trading Strategy (TA&FA) 36.66%
AI Robots (Virtual Accounts)
AI Robot's Name P/L
Swing Trader ($700 per position): Hedge Fund Style Trading (TA&FA) 77.75%
Swing Trader, Popular stocks ($1.5K per position): Mixed Strategy (TA&FA) 65.65%
Swing Trader, Popular stocks ($700 per position): Mixed Strategy (TA&FA) 59.95%
Conclusion
The integration of AI in financial markets represents a paradigm shift towards data-driven investment strategies. Through the lens of recent bearish patterns identified in Tesla's stock, it's evident that AI technologies like those developed by Tickeron are at the forefront of this transformation. By leveraging machine learning algorithms and AI robots, investors can navigate the complexities of the stock market with greater confidence and precision. As AI continues to evolve, its impact on financial markets is poised to deepen, offering promising prospects for the future of trading and investment.
PYTH:TSLA
TESLA My Opinion! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the TESLA next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 183.23
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 207.92
My Stop Loss - 170.39
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Tesla's $55.8 Bil Pay Package Voided: A Legal Blow to Elon Musk
In a legal setback for Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) CEO Elon Musk, a Delaware judge has invalidated the astronomical $55.8 billion pay package awarded to him by the electric vehicle giant in 2018. The ruling, following a shareholder lawsuit, not only impacts Musk's financial standing but also prompts questions about corporate governance and executive compensation practices. As Bernard Arnault surpasses Musk to become the world's richest person, the court decision sheds light on the intricacies of Musk's compensation, revealing a flawed process and raising concerns about the board's susceptibility to Musk's influence.
The Contested Compensation:
The $55.8 billion pay package, granted to Musk in 2018, faced scrutiny when shareholder Richard Tornetta filed a lawsuit, alleging its excessiveness and lack of alignment with shareholders' interests. During the week-long trial, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) directors defended the massive payment, arguing it was crucial to retain Musk's dedication to the company. However, Judge Kathaleen McCormick highlighted the board's vulnerability to Musk's "superstar appeal" and the extensive personal ties between Musk and the officials negotiating the package.
Judge's Ruling and Criticisms:
In a 200-page ruling, Judge McCormick described the $55.8 billion sum as "unfathomable" and criticized the flawed process leading to its approval. The judge emphasized Musk's influential position within the company, citing his "Superstar CEO" status and the close relationships between Musk and the officials responsible for negotiating the compensation. The ruling not only voids the compensation package but also prompts a reevaluation of the corporate governance practices at Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ).
Market Impact and Musk's Response:
Following the court decision, Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) share price experienced a more than three percent decline in after-hours trading. Musk, responding on X (Formerly Twitter) (x.com), advised against incorporating companies in Delaware, the state where Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is incorporated. The market's response indicates the potential ripple effects of this legal blow on Tesla's valuation and raises questions about the company's future leadership and strategic decisions.
Implications for Corporate Governance:
The court ruling raises broader questions about corporate governance practices within Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ). Judge McCormick's critique of the flawed negotiation process and Musk's extensive ties with the decision-makers highlights the need for transparent and independent decision-making in corporate boardrooms. The case serves as a cautionary tale for companies relying heavily on charismatic leaders and emphasizes the importance of rigorous governance structures.
Conclusion:
The voiding of Elon Musk's $55.8 billion pay package by a Delaware judge sends shockwaves through the corporate world, prompting discussions about executive compensation, corporate governance, and shareholder interests. As Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) navigates the aftermath of this legal blow, the case serves as a reminder for companies to reevaluate their compensation practices and governance structures to ensure transparency, independence, and alignment with shareholder interests in an era where corporate leadership is under increasing scrutiny.
it's time to going up for TSLAbefore buying, please check for being sure about your opinion about this CRYPTOCURRENCY!!!
(in every target you want, closed the position but our target is the third one)
*Guy's the entry place is importance things in enter in a position and be careful do not going up your leverage over 7x ,all things it's about risk management*
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if you want to enter in this position:
Enter Price: 237.90
Target1: 253.88
Target2: 272.02
Target3(Final Target): 289.90
Stoploss: 212.99
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TSLA in -12.68% downward trend, declining for three consecutive Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where TSLA declined for three days, in 206 of 266 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
PYTH:TSLA
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on December 29, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TSLA as a result. In 55 of 72 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TSLA turned negative on December 29, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 74%.
TSLA moved below its 50-day moving average on January 09, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TSLA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on January 12, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator for TSLA entered a downward trend on January 29, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 10 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 18 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +4.57% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSLA advanced for three days, in 292 of 349 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
TSLA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Opening: TSLA Feb 16th 180/190/230/240 Iron Condor... for a 3.55 credit.
Comments: Earnings announcement volatility contraction play.
I ordinarily put these on right before earnings, but will probably space it out, so am putting it on today. Earnings will be announced on Wednesday, 1/24, after market close.
Here, selling the 25 delta short option strikes and buying longs 10 strikes out from the shorts, resulting in 10 wide wings on which I've collected more than 1/3rd the width of the wings in credit, as well as a net delta setup that's about as delta neutral as you can get.
I'm using the next available monthly here so that I've got a little time to manage the setup in the event that that the move is bigger than the options market is anticipating here (around +/- 19 handles, which would be around 225 on the call side, 190 on the put, given current price). The basic notion here is that (a) TSLA IV contracts post-earnings; and (b) it stays within the expected move.
The Metrics: 3.55 credit on buying power effect of 6.45; 55.04% ROC at max; 27.52% at 50% max; delta/theta 1.00/8.02; 186.45/233.55 break evens. Since this is a defined risk setup, the BPE is the same regardless of whether you set it up in cash secured account like an IRA or on margin.