💡NZDUSD: Will there be a turnaround?NZDUSD witnessed its third consecutive day of decline. However, the downward momentum appears relatively mild, given that three days of decline do not match the intensity of the preceding single day of increase. The price is currently undergoing a retest, suggesting a potential stabilization. The chart structure on NZDUSD D1 indicates a cumulative sideways movement.
On the H1 timeframe, NZDUSD is forming a price range, indicative of a cumulative sideways phase. The primary strategy for today involves selling NZDUSD on the H1 chart from higher levels. Alternatively, there's a reserved approach to wait for a potential buy opportunity if NZDUSD on H1 breaks above and successfully retests.
Trendtrading
#EURCAD selling possibilityHello, dear traders and friends. Let's take a closer look at the EURCAD chart and examine the potential selling opportunity in this pair together.
Firstly, we can clearly observe a bearish trendline in the 1-hour timeframe, connecting lower highs. This trendline suggests the possibility of a bearish bias for this currency.
Secondly, when you examine the Daily timeframe for this pair, you'll notice that the price broke above the bearish trendline last week but failed to follow through and has since consolidated around the bearish trendline. This appears to be a false breakout.
Furthermore, the price's bullish moves seem to occur in a corrective manner, indicating a lack of clear intention for a bullish move, at least for now.
For a more conservative trading approach, you can consider waiting for a bearish breakout of the short-term bullish trendline or simply waiting for a candlestick confirmation to validate a downward movement.
It's also worth noting that there's a possibility that the price may test the previous top formed and extract liquidity from there before reversing to the downside.
by the way If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
💡 EURUSD: On the way to a slight correctionThe corrective momentum on EURUSD halted at the 1.0700 level, with the price currently forming a bullish pin bar candle. This creates a double pin bar pattern near the resistance level, indicating a potential resurgence of buying interest. Therefore, it's advisable to maintain your existing long position. If the price manages to break above the 1.0750 resistance level, you might contemplate adding a new order.
💡GOLD: Overwhelmed by the strength of the USDThis morning, the global gold prices extended their drop, as spot gold decreased by 8.8 USD to reach 1,968.7 USD per ounce. Gold futures were last recorded at 1,973.5 USD per ounce, marking a 15.1 USD drop compared to yesterday's morning prices.
The resurgence of the USD during the evening trading session on November 7 reduced gold's attractiveness to buyers using different currencies.
Investors are eagerly awaiting a series of upcoming speeches by officials from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this week, with particular anticipation for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's address scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday.
Gold prices are under pressure from a strong USD#XAUUSD: Bearish Comments - November 9
🔴ENTRY SELL: 1960-1964(STOP: 1973)
✅Target date: 1931
✅Distant goal: 1900
---H4 frame, gold fell sharply and completely broke through the 1960 support zone yesterday, clearly identifying a downtrend. Meeting yesterday's expectations, gold reached 195x.
---On the H1 frame, the price is currently showing signs of a short correction. Today it is possible that gold will recover slightly to the 1959-1960 resistance area and then continue to go down.
=> Today, to have more safe selling points, traders should wait for gold to test again to officially confirm an upcoming strong downtrend.
=> Wishing all traders a productive new trading week
XAUUSD: Fed Chairman: No signs of interest rate cuts in the shorPatrick Harker, President of the Philadelphia Fed, stated:
At the most recent FOMC meeting, supported a steady interest rate approach.There are no immediate plans by the Fed to lower interest rates, so they will remain high for longer.It's time to evaluate the effects of previous interest rate rises.Depending on the statistics, the Fed may decide to raise or maintain interest rates in the future.A better equilibrium is being reached in the labor market.In 2024, the unemployment rate will increase to 4.5% before declining.Assured of a gentle landing
Though not yet in a recession, growth may slow
After steadily declining to 3% in 2024, inflation drops to 2%.
This is My Favourite ICT Day Trading ModelHello traders,
This is the complete breakdown of my favourite ICT Day Trading Model.
This is so easy to replicate on any two time frames. One must be higher, while the second one which is for entry should be lower.
The higher time frame is for market direction, orderflow, trend.
Identify your discount and premium levels on higher time frame.
above 50% of your fib is premium, while below 50% is your discount.
If price is bearish, you are to look for sell opportunities when price retrace back to your premium levels.
Then go to your lower time frame to look for selling opportunities.
Your entry should be taken mostly within London kill zone.
For you to have a quality A+ trade setup, time and price must align together with your trade idea.
Your trade idea have a high probability of working out if you take your entry within London Kill Zone.
Look at my chart diagram to understand the model.
💡 GBPUSD: Next week predictionBoE Governor Andrew Bailey stressed the importance of maintaining stable interest rates to combat inflation in the UK. Given the repercussions of prior rate hikes, tightening policy conditions could potentially exacerbate inflation and further weaken the job market in the UK.
Earlier this week, currency markets adjusted their expectations for a potential rate cut from 40 basis points to 51 basis points by December 2024. Upcoming economic data releases will provide traders with greater insight into the BoE's interest rate trajectory.
The initial focus on the economic calendar will be the release of the UK's services PMI figures. Subsequently, attention will shift to US data. The consensus in the market is that the PMI data will likely remain below the 50-point threshold and have limited impact on the GBP/USD currency pair. The subsequent NFP report may introduce heightened volatility to the pair, following preliminary figures such as ADP data and unemployment claims earlier in the week.
#GBCAD selling opportunityHello, everyone. I hope you're all having a great start to the week.
Let's analyze the GBPCAD chart and explore a potential selling opportunity in this pair. However, please keep in mind that since we've also posted another idea for EURCAD, it's advisable not to take both of these ideas simultaneously, as it could increase your risk and disrupt your money management.
The price is currently situated at a Daily Clean break area, which serves as a supply zone in the daily timeframe. Additionally, the price has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and appears to be forming a rising wedge pattern. Moreover, in less than 10 minutes, a bearish hammer candlestick formation will likely occur in the 4-hour timeframe, further supporting the potential for this trading zone.
It's essential to note that in the forex market, there are times when the price presents clear patterns. However, it often initially moves against the pattern to trigger traders who trade in the direction of those patterns and then reverses in the direction of the pattern. I believe that the bullish breakout from the wedge pattern is a false breakout, and the price will eventually return inside the pattern.
For entering a position, you can either trade based on the 4-hour bearish hammer candlestick formation or wait for the price to return inside the wedge pattern. In any case, your stop-loss should be placed above the high formed in this candle.
Wishing you all the best.
💡 NZDUSD: On the declineNZDUSD is experiencing its second consecutive day of losses. The D1 candlestick chart from yesterday displayed a downward trend with a modest lower shadow, indicating that selling pressure was relatively subdued. The price is currently rebounding from these declines. NZDUSD's daily chart continues to exhibit a sideways consolidation pattern.
While the hourly H1 chart still maintains a bullish price structure, today's trading may witness a potential selling opportunity at higher levels. Should the price breach this level, it could signify a revival of bullish momentum, presenting a chance for re-entry into long positions.
💡 GBPUSD: Pressure from sellersSelling pressure came back into play for GBPUSD in the recent session as the price got closer to the 1.2400 resistance zone and produced more clear bearish indicators. Nevertheless, the earlier reversal signs, such as the double bottom pattern and the breakdown of price structure, remain intact. Therefore, it's advisable to maintain your current long positions with the target still set at around the 1.2600 level.
💡 XAUUSD: Gold reversed and dropped sharplyAccording to Heraeus analysts, one of the key factors supporting the current strength of gold is the consistent and robust buying power of central banks. This remarkable level of central bank acquisitions may account for why gold prices have shown resilience, even in the face of downward pressure from a strong dollar and rising bond yields so far this year.
Experts point out that central banks have increased their gold reserves by 800 tons, representing a 14% rise compared to the same period in 2022.
Furthermore, experts anticipate that central banks will continue to show a strong inclination towards gold purchases this year, although it is unlikely to match the purchasing power seen in the previous year. Nevertheless, if the fourth quarter performs as well as the previous one, global central banks' net gold acquisitions are poised to surpass the record set last year, which stood at 1,082 tons.
Possible bearish movement US30English
In my last idea published, I was waiting for a bearish reaction in the 50% fibo´s zone, but the price is going up. What do I see right now? We have a bearish structure on a daily timeframe and I hope to continue selling this index.
In adittion to that, all the retracement we saw, were "healthy" for the price and we don´t have any GAP or something like that which is good. In this retracement we´re having, I´ll be waiting for the price to go to the 79-89% fibo levels to see the reaction and waiting for a price action confirmation to start selling this index, let´s see how it goes in the next days.
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En mi última idea publicada, estaba esperando una reacción bajista en la zona del 50% del fibo, pero el precio siguió subiendo. ¿Qué veo ahora en el mercado? Tenemos una estructura bajista en una temporalidad diaria y espero seguir vendiendo este índice.
Adicional a eso, todos los retrocesos que vimos, fueron saludables para el precio y no tuvimos GAPs o algo parecido, lo cual es bueno. En el retroceso actual, Estaré espeando que el precio vaya hasta el 79-89% del Fibo y ver qué reacción tiene y a la espera de una confirmación de acción de precio para comenzar a vender este índice, vamos a ver cómo se mueve en los próximos días.
Selling Signal: GOLD Retesting Key Support AreaDiscover an enticing selling opportunity in GOLD as it undergoes a critical retest of a key support area. With market analysis, technical indicators, and price action as your allies, evaluate the potential downside move. Stay vigilant and informed to capitalize on this precious metal's market dynamics.
XAUUSD current as Gaza news saturated, long term trendXAUUSD h1 price is still sideways in the 1965-2000 range. In the short term, it is possible that gold will sweep down to the 1970 support zone again and then reverse upward. Currently, traders can buy up the 1971 price when there is a clear confirmation signal of a reversal. Production: 1963, City: 1990
Please keep selling, everyone . Gold has returned 6x
You can wait to get back to the 198x area to set up a sell order. Or if you break deep to 3x-4x and then bounce back to the 6x area, you can sell. After many days of price increases, it seems we are about to see 1900
However, everyone paying attention to the 1960-1964 area is also quite important. It may still be slightly turned on in that area.
Whoever is selling, just sell, if you buy, just browse and exit
#CHFJPY Buying opportunityHello, everyone. I hope you are all doing well.
Let's dive into the CHFJPY chart and explore a potential buying opportunity in this pair.
As depicted in the chart, the price initially formed a bullish impulsive move, but it has since been undergoing a corrective descent for the past three days.
Today, it appears that the price has cleared out liquidity from the low created yesterday and established a bullish engulfing candle. Additionally, the price is currently situated at a static support area and is backed by support from the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
Given the price's current position at this significant level and considering the favorable risk-to-reward ratio, we are opting to open a position at this price. However, for a more conservative approach, you can choose to wait for the price to break above a short-term bearish trendline that has been constraining the price during this corrective descent.
💡 USDJPY: Waiting for the opportunity to turn backFollowing three consecutive sessions of sharp decline, buying strength has resurfaced as the price nears the lower boundary of the ascending price channel. While the overall bullish pattern remains intact on the H4 and daily timeframes, it's worth noting the emergence of a bearish signal. A notably robust bearish pin bar has taken shape on the weekly chart, manifesting at levels not seen in decades. Consequently, there exists a potential for a price reversal in this resistance zone. Therefore, it might be advisable to consider selling opportunities once the recovery phase concludes.
Gold Prices Navigate Uncertainty Dollar Rates and GeopoliticsGold prices, represented as XAU/USD, started the new week on a weaker note, extending the decline that began on Friday from the $2,004 level, which marked a multi-day high. This initial rise was in response to softer jobs data from the United States (US). A slight increase in US Treasury bond yields helped alleviate some of the bearish pressure on the US Dollar (USD) and had an impact on the precious metal. Additionally, a generally positive tone in the equity markets pushed the safe-haven commodity below the $1,985 level during the Asian trading session.
However, it's important to note that there are growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep things unchanged in December and may not raise interest rates any further, which could limit the upside potential for the USD. This, in turn, might offer some support to gold, which is considered a non-yielding asset. Moreover, the ongoing risk of an escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict is another factor that may prevent a significant decline in XAU/USD. Therefore, it might be wise to wait for strong sustained selling pressure before considering a substantial correction from the year-to-date peak reached on October 27.
The US Dollar is making a modest recovery from a six-week low it hit on Friday, thanks to a decent increase in US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, is contributing to the downward pressure on gold. However, the prevailing market sentiment is that the Federal Reserve won't raise rates again, especially given the softer US macroeconomic data released on Friday. For instance, the non-farm payroll (NFP) report showed that the US added 150,000 jobs in October, falling short of the estimated 180,000 and revised down from the originally reported 336,000 for the previous month. The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI also dropped to a five-month low of 51.8 in October, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain its current stance at the December policy meeting.
On the geopolitical front, there's ongoing tension in the Israel-Hamas conflict, with Israel rejecting calls for a ceasefire and intensifying military operations against Hamas in Gaza. This situation continues to influence the dynamics of gold prices.
From a technical perspective, any further decline in gold prices may find support around the $1,980 level, followed by the previous week's high near $1,970. If there's a continued downward trend, the price of gold may face additional pressure, potentially dropping towards the $1,964 area, with the next significant support in the $1,954-1,953 range.
Conversely, if gold prices rebound, the $2,000 mark could serve as an immediate resistance level, followed by the Friday swing high around $2,004, and the year-to-date peak near $2,009. If gold manages to break through this resistance, it could potentially head towards the $2,022 resistance zone.
#GBPJPY buying opportunityHello, traders and friends. Let's analyze the GBPJPY 1-hour timeframe chart and explore a potential buying opportunity in this pair.
Yesterday, the price successfully broke above a Daily bearish channel that had been pushing the price lower since August 21st. This impulsive breakout to the upside suggests the potential for the price to move higher, possibly reaching at least the high established yesterday.
Another factor supporting our belief in a potential buying opportunity is the bearish corrective move that followed the breakout, indicating no strong overall bearish bias in the price for now.
There are several bullish confluences that reinforce our bias, including:
The bearish channel's upper line, now acting as support.
A demand area on the 1-hour timeframe, coinciding with a static support zone.
The price is currently above the 4-hour, 1-hour, and 30-minute 200EMA, all of which serve as critical support levels.
The price is currently at the 38% Fibonacci level, and if it reaches the support line, the 50% Fibonacci level will also provide significant support.
To consider a long position, we recommend waiting for the price to break the short-term bearish trendline to the upside or looking for candlestick confirmation around the supporting area.
by the way If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
6% Surge For Apple Following Positive Earnings!Apple Inc. has managed to carve out a silver lining in its latest financial performance, with iPhone sales witnessing a 2.8% increase despite a general downturn in hardware sales. This growth stands in stark contrast to the significant declines in Mac and iPad sales, with Mac sales plummeting by nearly 34% over the year, highlighting the fierce competition and shifting consumer preferences in the tech industry.
On the financial front, Apple's revenue dipped slightly to $89.50 billion, a 1% decrease. However, the company's net income tells a more positive story, surging by 11% to $22.96 billion. The Q4 earnings report brought more good news, with earnings per share reaching $1.46, comfortably beating the $1.31 estimate and fueling a 1% gap up in stock price at market open, followed by a 2% rise at close.
Despite a tumultuous journey with a 16% drop from a July peak of $198, Apple's stock has rallied 36% over the year. The stock found support at the weekly 50 simple moving average in October and has since rebounded with a 4% rise in November, now 6% above the October low. Looking ahead, the stock faces a critical test at the $182 resistance level, which if breached, could set the stage for a new all-time high.
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💡 USDJPY : Waiting for recoveryThe Bank of Japan has expanded the scope for adjusting short-term interest rates and has increased its inflation target for fiscal year 2024 to 2.8%. This means Japan's inflation will exceed the 2% target for three consecutive years and is closer to achieving sustainable price stability. If the Bank of Japan (BOJ) wants to have a clearer view of wage increases next year before making a decision on adjusting negative interest rates, it may need to postpone this decision until April/ 2024 or even longer.
Regarding developments in the foreign exchange market, we see USD/JPY falling sharply after the release of non-farm payroll data in the US and it is currently running below the 48-hour moving average on the H4 chart. However, it appears the price has found support near 149.00. If inflation in Japan fails to meet expectations, it is likely that the US dollar will continue to recover against the Japanese Yen.