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NASDAQ: Dancing on the Edge of a Techno-Financial TightropeMarket Overview The NASDAQ-100 (NDX) has recently corrected by approximately 5.5% from its all-time high of 22,133 on December 16, 2024. This comes after a historic rally driven by resilient megacap technology stocks, robust earnings, and the continued dominance of AI-led innovation. Despite the correction, the index remains up 18% year-to-date, outpacing broader indices like the S&P 500, fueled by optimism around productivity-enhancing technologies. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds could temper this growth into 2025. Technical Analysis Trendlines Short-Term: The NDX remains in a rising trend channel since March 2023, with the lower boundary around 20,500 acting as critical support. A recent breach of its 21-day moving average suggests growing bearish momentum. Long-Term: The index's long-term trendline, extending from the pandemic lows in 2020, remains intact, underscoring investor confidence in the broader tech narrative. Key Levels Support Immediate support: 20,790 (50-day moving average). Strong support: 20,500 (trendline and Fibonacci retracement zone). Resistance Near-term resistance: 21,900 (upper boundary of rising wedge). Critical resistance: 22,133 (all-time high). Momentum Indicators RSI: Declining from overbought territory (currently at 64), signaling potential for further downside before resetting to neutral. MACD: A bearish crossover suggests weakening momentum in the near term. Macroeconomic Context Interest Rates The Federal Reserve has maintained its hawkish stance, with the terminal rate hovering around 5.75%. While inflation has moderated to 2.4%, core inflation remains sticky at 2.8%, keeping rate cuts off the table until mid-2025. Elevated borrowing costs could weigh on tech valuations, particularly for growth companies reliant on cheap capital. Economic Growth U.S. GDP growth is forecasted to decelerate from 2.6% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, reflecting weaker consumer spending and tighter financial conditions. This slowdown could dampen earnings growth across the NASDAQ-100 constituents. Corporate Earnings Analysts expect NDX earnings growth of 8% in 2025, down from the blistering 14% in 2024, as cost pressures and a plateauing of AI-related tailwinds take hold. Geopolitical Landscape China-U.S. Relations Increasing tensions over Taiwan and heightened scrutiny of U.S. tech exports to China remain a wildcard. Any escalation could disrupt semiconductor supply chains and impact heavyweights like Nvidia and AMD. Europe Persistent instability in Eastern Europe and ongoing energy challenges pose risks to multinational tech firms with significant operations or customers in the region. Middle East Geopolitical uncertainty stemming from conflicts in the Middle East has kept oil prices elevated (~$95/barrel). Higher energy costs could indirectly affect tech earnings by squeezing consumer and corporate budgets. 2025 Outlook Base Case The NASDAQ-100 ends 2025 up 8–12%, driven by resilient demand for cloud computing, generative AI, and green technology innovations. Support from stable core earnings growth and moderating inflation provides a favorable backdrop. Bear Case Prolonged high interest rates, coupled with weaker-than-expected global growth, lead to a flat or mildly negative year. Key risks include geopolitical flare-ups, regulatory actions on Big Tech, and waning investor enthusiasm for speculative assets. Bull Case A dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve in H2 2025, alongside breakthrough advancements in AI or biotechnology, propels the index to new highs (~24,000). Conclusion The NASDAQ-100 is entering 2025 with a cautiously optimistic outlook, balanced between robust technological trends and mounting macro/geopolitical risks. Investors should monitor key support at 20,500 and resistance at 21,900 as barometers of sentiment. While near-term volatility is likely, the index remains a cornerstone for long-term growth portfolios. For 2025, the focus is on being smart: diligent monitoring, disciplined allocations, and adapting to shifting conditions. "There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat." – John Tuld – Margin Call (2011)
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by WHSelfInvest
Gold: Multi Tie FrameHello Traders In the weekly timeframe, an ascending channel is observed, showing a good reaction at its upper boundary. We are waiting for a price pullback to the next resistance level. In the daily chart, an ascending trendline has been broken, with two returns to the breakdown area around 2600.700, indicating the strength of sellers. The price returning to this area for the third time also shows the buyers' insistence. If the price can stabilize below 2532.800, the likelihood of further decline increases. Conversely, if the price cannot break through the green zone, we predict an upward movement to 2606.200. At the same time, we anticipate a slow downward trend and fluctuations to around 2568 in the coming days.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AliSignals
Bravura Solutions | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Notes On Session # Bravura Solutions - Double Formation * 1.600 AUD | Trend Line Survey Valid * 0.800 AUD | Trend Line Uptrend Bias | Subdivision 1 - Triple Formation * Retracement 1 | Not Numbered | Consolidation | Subdivision 2 * Median)) | Conditions Entered | Survey Valid At 1.800 AUD * Retracement 2 | Numbered | Subdivision 3 Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; European Session(Upwards) - US-Session(Downwards) - Asian Session(Ranging) Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand; Overall Consensus | Buy
CAPITALCOM:BVSAULong
by TradePolitics
The whole market's going down, pick one and buy it at the bottomI rolled the dice and put in an overnight order for COINBASE:NEARUSD @ $3.675 Runner up was COINBASE:HNTUSD Will it get there? Might be a stretch, but looks possible, looks like everything is about to crash a little bit. What if it doesn't get there? Who cares. I'm never upset about losing zero dollars. But folks, I think it's going there, maybe not overnight, but all kinds of things are headed to all kinds of recent extreme bottoms.
COINBASE:NEARUSD
by Hollywood260AB
Steadfast Group Limited | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Notes On Session # Steadfast Group Limited - Double Formation * (Neckline) At 6.1600 AUD | Subdivision 1 * Retracement | Not Numbered - Triple Formation * Trend Line 1 & 2 | Survey Valid | Subdivision 2 * 012345 | Wave Count | Configuration Entry | Subdivision 3 * Retracement | Numbered At Daily Time Frame Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards) Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand; Overall Consensus | Buy
CAPITALCOM:SDFAULong
by TradePolitics
EU/USD Technical Analysis ReportEUR/USD Technical Analysis Report December 20, 2024, 06:00 GMT Current Price: 1.03628 Recent Market Events & Price Action Recent FOMC rate cut of 25 basis points (December 18, 2024) accelerated bearish momentum Previous range break (1.05927 - 1.04541) signals strong bearish continuation Yesterday's retracement to 1.04235 identified as liquidity grab before continuation Technical Structure Key Trend Points Downtrend initiated: September 30, 2024 Trend confirmation: Bearish daily engulfing candle (November 5, 2024) Range formation: November 13 - November 27, 2024 Range break: December 18, 2024 (post-FOMC) Moving Average Analysis Price consistently trading below Daily 20 EMA Broken below Daily 200 EMA with sustained movement below Historical Key Level Analysis Major historical level approaching: Previous support: May 12, 2022 Previous resistance: August 9, 2022 Last mitigation: November 15, 2022 Potential Scenarios Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability) If current historical level breaks, expect movement towards: 1.00951 0.99599 0.97402 Bullish Alternative If level holds as support: Potential retracement back to range high (1.05973) Would indicate renewed EUR strength against USD Key Levels to Watch Recent High: 1.04235 (December 19 retracement) Previous Range: 1.05927 - 1.04541 Major Support Levels: 1.00951, 0.99599, 0.97402 Risk Management Considerations Monitor price action around historical support level Watch for potential false breaks Consider reduced position sizes due to recent high-impact news event Note: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own analysis and manage risk appropriately.
Short
by FXCapitalClub
AES Corporation - Short term view with strong supportSo first of all both price and indicators are confirming the downtrend. Today NYSE:AES opened with a gap succeeding yesterday's equilibrium in price with doji candles. The price is still in the middle of the regression line and in the next few days the price don't seems to be close to upper 2 SD. In the print above the yellow line shows the support at $11.43. The image's time horizon starts at the end of 2006. Furthermore looking at short ratio available online the value is about 2,7 from mid October as well as more than 22M short interest
NYSE:AESShort
by AFCapital21
Ethereum Fibonacci Strategy SetupThis ethereum setup I use is on the 15 minute chart. The signals are SMA crossovers of the 13/55. And the moving average plots are using Golden Ratio numbers to forecast near term price movements. Lastly I use a sessions indicator to show the New York & Tokyo sessions. As well as a tick value indicator to show me how much the tick value of the futures contract for Ethereum. Crossover Signals: Long - SMA 13 > SMA 55 Short - SMA 13 < SMA 55 Golden Ratio Plots (SMA): 111 - White 233 - Red 610 - Green Timeframe: 15 minute
CME:ETH1!
by sapphire_edge
GBP/USD Analysis:Hello Dear Traders, Take a look at the weekly chart; a clear bullish channel is evident here. We tend to long the pair in this situation, given that we are around the bottom of the bullish channel. However, I don't trade based on the weekly channel. On the daily chart, we see a bearish trend line and a gap towards the bottom of the channel. Breaking above the trend line on the daily chart would indicate more bullish movements in the future. However, examining the 2-hour chart, it appears that there might be a reversal following a strong bearish candle. This candle was formed due to the FOMC voting, and I believe there may be some sell orders left from that. Therefore, I predict more bearish movements on the 2-hour chart during the reversal.
Short
by AliSignals
ETHEREUM → Consolidation after a bearish trend breakBINANCE:ETHUSD is consolidating within the flat boundaries of 4085 3530. In general, there is a bullish trend, the fundamental background is also favorable except for yesterday's news, which creates a small risk... The price is at a strong resistance between 4090 and 4100 and it will take a lot of energy to break this area. Yesterday's news was generally controversial but with a negative bias. Despite the decline in interest rates, there were strong hints of stopping the decline and taking a hawkish course. Bitcoin is giving a small correction against this backdrop, which is negative for altcoins. Ethereum technically did not break the bullish structure, a very strong support area of 3530 - 3440 is formed on the chart and with high probability a retest is possible, a liquidity grab with the aim of further growth. There are risks for further fall, they can be taken into account, but we can consider an attempt of growth as a priority. Resistance levels: 4086, 4100, 4372 Support levels: 3530, 3440, 3261 Since the price is inside the consolidation, our strategy is simple - trading from the channel boundaries. Accordingly, based on the current situation, we should consider a retest of support before further growth. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
5
NZDUSD → The price could fall another 2.5%FX:NZDUSD is forming a return to a strong support zone after testing it after a year. Against the backdrop of a rising dollar, the chances of a support breakout are growing. The downtrend, rising dollar, weak fundamental background for NZD play a key role in forming a bear market. The price is testing the key resistance and trying to enter the selling zone. At the moment the price is restrained by the descending channel support and if the price manages to break this line and consolidate below, strong selling may be formed further, as there are no obstacles below it until 0.562. Resistance levels: 0.577, 0.5817 Support levels: 0.575, 0.562 I do not exclude the possibility of correction if the buyers hold the support. But there is no chance of a trend change. Another retest of the support may lead to a breakdown and further fall to 0.562 Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
2