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NASDAQ: Dancing on the Edge of a Techno-Financial TightropeMarket Overview The NASDAQ-100 (NDX) has recently corrected by approximately 5.5% from its all-time high of 22,133 on December 16, 2024. This comes after a historic rally driven by resilient megacap technology stocks, robust earnings, and the continued dominance of AI-led innovation. Despite the correction, the index remains up 18% year-to-date, outpacing broader indices like the S&P 500, fueled by optimism around productivity-enhancing technologies. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds could temper this growth into 2025. Technical Analysis Trendlines Short-Term: The NDX remains in a rising trend channel since March 2023, with the lower boundary around 20,500 acting as critical support. A recent breach of its 21-day moving average suggests growing bearish momentum. Long-Term: The index's long-term trendline, extending from the pandemic lows in 2020, remains intact, underscoring investor confidence in the broader tech narrative. Key Levels Support Immediate support: 20,790 (50-day moving average). Strong support: 20,500 (trendline and Fibonacci retracement zone). Resistance Near-term resistance: 21,900 (upper boundary of rising wedge). Critical resistance: 22,133 (all-time high). Momentum Indicators RSI: Declining from overbought territory (currently at 64), signaling potential for further downside before resetting to neutral. MACD: A bearish crossover suggests weakening momentum in the near term. Macroeconomic Context Interest Rates The Federal Reserve has maintained its hawkish stance, with the terminal rate hovering around 5.75%. While inflation has moderated to 2.4%, core inflation remains sticky at 2.8%, keeping rate cuts off the table until mid-2025. Elevated borrowing costs could weigh on tech valuations, particularly for growth companies reliant on cheap capital. Economic Growth U.S. GDP growth is forecasted to decelerate from 2.6% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, reflecting weaker consumer spending and tighter financial conditions. This slowdown could dampen earnings growth across the NASDAQ-100 constituents. Corporate Earnings Analysts expect NDX earnings growth of 8% in 2025, down from the blistering 14% in 2024, as cost pressures and a plateauing of AI-related tailwinds take hold. Geopolitical Landscape China-U.S. Relations Increasing tensions over Taiwan and heightened scrutiny of U.S. tech exports to China remain a wildcard. Any escalation could disrupt semiconductor supply chains and impact heavyweights like Nvidia and AMD. Europe Persistent instability in Eastern Europe and ongoing energy challenges pose risks to multinational tech firms with significant operations or customers in the region. Middle East Geopolitical uncertainty stemming from conflicts in the Middle East has kept oil prices elevated (~$95/barrel). Higher energy costs could indirectly affect tech earnings by squeezing consumer and corporate budgets. 2025 Outlook Base Case The NASDAQ-100 ends 2025 up 8–12%, driven by resilient demand for cloud computing, generative AI, and green technology innovations. Support from stable core earnings growth and moderating inflation provides a favorable backdrop. Bear Case Prolonged high interest rates, coupled with weaker-than-expected global growth, lead to a flat or mildly negative year. Key risks include geopolitical flare-ups, regulatory actions on Big Tech, and waning investor enthusiasm for speculative assets. Bull Case A dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve in H2 2025, alongside breakthrough advancements in AI or biotechnology, propels the index to new highs (~24,000). Conclusion The NASDAQ-100 is entering 2025 with a cautiously optimistic outlook, balanced between robust technological trends and mounting macro/geopolitical risks. Investors should monitor key support at 20,500 and resistance at 21,900 as barometers of sentiment. While near-term volatility is likely, the index remains a cornerstone for long-term growth portfolios. For 2025, the focus is on being smart: diligent monitoring, disciplined allocations, and adapting to shifting conditions. "There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat." – John Tuld – Margin Call (2011)
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by WHSelfInvest
Gold Consolidates Between Key Levels Amid Bearish TrendGold Technical Analysis The price recently reached the support level at 2585 and reversed. However, the bearish trend remains intact as long as gold trades below 2612. Gold is currently consolidating between 2612 and 2585. A breakout in either direction will determine the next trend: Stability above 2612, confirmed by a 4-hour candle close, suggests a move toward 2623. Stability below 2585 indicates a drop toward 2558. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 2612 Resistance Levels: 2623, 2638, 2653 Support Levels: 2586, 2572, 2558 Trend Outlook: Bearish Momentum: Likely below 2623 and 2612. Bullish Momentum: Possible above 2623. Previous idea:
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SroshMayi
How low could BTC drop?Bitcoin prices have dropped sharply over the past three days, making it a tough period for crypto and altcoin holders. At one point, ETH was down 24% from its December 16 high, while Litecoin saw a full 41% drop from its peak. These sharp declines may encourage some buyers to take advantage of the massive pullback in altcoins, but watching Bitcoin's movements is crucial. When BTC finds a low, the chances of a low in altcoins will be greater. So, from which level could BTC bottom out? Since November 12, Bitcoin has been moving within a bullish channel, steadily pushing higher as latecomers joined the rally. However, it has now breached the channel, as the chart shows. And as long as Bitcoin trades below today's high of 98,253, this trendline break remains valid, suggesting the potential for further downside. So, how low could prices go? A 21% correction from the all-time high is reasonable in a typical bull trend. This would bring Bitcoin's price down to approximately 85,000. If that happens, many latecomers who bought since November 12 would likely be stopped out, potentially allowing the price to stabilize and resume its upward trajectory from that level. A stronger support level exists at the March and October highs of 74,000. Hopefully, the market won't test this level, which marked the start of the latest rally after the US election. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:BTCUSDShort
by ThinkMarkets
Using Trendlines on ATR for Trading Strategy:Average True Range: Volatility Resistance: The ATR oscillating at a resistance line suggests that the market volatility has reached a point where it has been repeatedly unable to break through to higher levels. This can mean that despite attempts, the volatility hasn't sustained at higher levels, potentially indicating a stabilization or a ceiling on how volatile the market might get in the short term. Market Sentiment: This oscillation can also reflect a market where there's a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, leading to a stabilization of price movement range. When volatility hits a resistance level, it might indicate that the market is preparing for a significant move or a breakout, or conversely, that it might revert back to lower volatility after some consolidation. Breakout Strategy: Signal for Breakout: If the ATR breaks above the resistance line where it has been oscillating, it could signal an upcoming increase in volatility, potentially leading to a significant price movement. Traders might consider this a signal to prepare for a breakout trade, either buying or selling depending on the price trend. Trade Entry: Following a breakout, traders could use this ATR trendline break as a cue to enter a trade in the direction of the breakout, expecting that increased volatility will lead to a more substantial price move. Stop Loss and Profit Taking: Stop Loss: The resistance line where ATR oscillates can be used to set dynamic stop losses. If the ATR moves above this line, indicating higher volatility, a trader might adjust their stop loss to be a multiple of the ATR away from the current price to account for the increased risk. Profit Targets: Similarly, profit targets can be set based on ATR levels. For instance, if the ATR is oscillating near resistance, traders might aim for a profit target that's one or two ATRs away from the entry point, anticipating where volatility might push the price. Trend Confirmation: Confirming Trends: ATR's behavior at resistance can confirm trends. If the price is trending upward but the ATR fails to move above its resistance, it might indicate that the trend lacks strong momentum or that a reversal could be on the horizon. Risk Management: Adjusting Position Size: High ATR levels near resistance could suggest increasing market noise, prompting traders to reduce position sizes or adjust their risk management strategies to account for potential whipsaws or false breakouts. Counter-Trend Strategy: Reversal Signals: If the ATR repeatedly fails to break through resistance, it might signal that the market is overstretched, potentially leading to a decrease in volatility or even a trend reversal. Traders could look for bearish signals if this happens in an uptrend or bullish if in a downtrend. Incorporating these strategies requires careful observation and should ideally be combined with other forms of technical analysis or indicators for confirmation. Remember, while ATR provides insights into volatility, it does not indicate the direction of price movement, so it should be part of a broader trading strategy.
Education
by stocktechbot
Price Tests Key Levels as Bullish and Bearish Momentum CompeteTechnical Analysis The price dropped as anticipated in the previous analysis. Today, the price is likely to attempt to reach 41,960. A break below this level would confirm further bearish movement toward 41,740. However, if the price stabilizes above 41,970, it could support a bullish move toward the pivot zone at 42,370. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 42130 Resistance Levels: 42370, 42590, 42770 Support Levels: 41970, 41740, 41560 Trend Outlook: Bullish Momentum: Expected if the price stabilizes above 41,970. Bearish Momentum: Likely with stability below 41,970. previous idea:
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
NASDAQ Bearish Momentum Persists as Price Drops 2.7% in 24 HoursTechnical Analysis The price has dropped more than 2.7% in the last 24 hours. The bearish trend, as highlighted in the previous analysis, remains intact. The price is likely to stabilize within the bearish trend, targeting 20,670 and 20,550, as long as it trades below 20,990. However, a bullish correction toward 20,860 or 20,990 is possible, particularly if the price stabilizes above 20,860. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 20860 Resistance Levels: 20990, 21080, 21210 Support Levels: 20780, 20670, 20550 Trend Outlook: - Bearish Momentum with stability below 20990 - Bullish Momentum by stability above 20990 Previous idea:
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SroshMayi
SP500 / Bearish Momentum is under control...S&P 500 Technical Analysis The price dropped another 1.7% and still has bearish momentum. As long as it trades below 5863, it will touch 5803 and 5781. so the consolidation will be between 5863 and 5781 till breaking, it is possible to do a correction till 5863 and then will drop. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5835 Resistance Levels: 5863, 5894, 5932 Support Levels: 5803, 5781, 5734 Trend Outlook: Downward by stability below 5863 Bullish correction toward 5863 previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
XAUUSDUpdate: Friday, December 20, 2024 There is a downtrend line in the form of resistance!!! We are monitoring the expected movement of the current price. The price may encounter resistance and continue the downward movement. If the downward sloping line is broken, and passes through the support level, the rise may be confirmed and the rise has begun. There are suggestions for two Fibonacci corrections indicating the formation of the beginning of the rise!!! In this case, the Fibonacci technique works when the price stabilizes above the 0.74 area for two Fibonacci corrections, indicating a local upward movement or a rising coordination. Conclusion: As long as the price is below the sloping line, or continues in the downward direction, the downward trend is preferred if it does not reverse to the upside. The next possible trading area is 2540, this price is considered a support area and the price may head towards it.
VANTAGE:XAUUSD
by chihaaymen
GOLD → Consolidation after the fall. Trading inside the rangeFX:XAUUSD is forming consolidation in a new bearish plane after a strong fall on Wednesday. The emphasis is on 2622 - 2581. The fundamental background is negative and technically the price is testing the lows. On Wednesday, the Fed adopted a more conservative approach to monetary policy, laying down only 2 rate cuts in 2025, which generally had a negative impact on the whole market except for the dollar, which is breaking through local highs. Today traders await the release of the PCE, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Any surprise in the PCE data or an escalation of political uncertainty could push metal prices up. From a technical point of view, the gold market remains in the previously mentioned consolidation, and prices fluctuate in wide ranges, which is generally logical for the end of the calendar year: reduced liquidity and increased volatility... Resistance levels: 2616, 2622 Support levels: 2589, 2581, 2560 Since the price is inside the consolidation, it is worth considering trading from the boundaries of this range. In the long term, I expect a retest of the key resistance 2616-2622 in the form of a false breakdown and a fall towards local lows Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
6
Don’t worry when buying gold at the bottom The Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday and Powell's subsequent speech, although the interest rate was cut by 25 basis points as expected, its "hawkish" tone had a significant impact on the price of gold. The Fed lowered its expectations for future easing policies, predicting only two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2025, lower than the previous forecast. This shows that the Fed is more concerned about inflation risks and remains cautious about economic growth. This policy shift resonates with strong US economic data, further strengthening the market's expectations for the Fed's future policies. The final value of US GDP in the third quarter was revised up to 3.1%, higher than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims also fell sharply, showing that the labor market is still strong. These data show that the resilience of the US economy is stronger than expected, providing support for the Fed to maintain a relatively tight monetary policy. For the gold market, the Fed's "hawkish" stance has put significant pressure on gold prices. As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold's price is negatively correlated with interest rates. A low interest rate environment is usually good for gold because it reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, the Fed has hinted at a slower pace of rate cuts, or even a pause, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold, dampening demand for the metal. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar index has also had a negative impact on gold prices denominated in U.S. dollars. The market is currently divided over expectations for inflation. While recent inflation data has retreated, it is still above the Fed’s target level. Fed officials have also expressed concerns about persistently high inflation. The upcoming core PCE data (the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator) will be the focus of market attention, and the results will have an important impact on gold prices. If the data shows persistently high inflation, it could push up gold prices; otherwise, it could put further pressure on gold prices. While the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still ongoing, the market has adapted to its impact on the global economy and financial markets. Recently, some geopolitical events have had a relatively short-lived and limited impact on gold prices. Market sentiment plays an important role in gold price fluctuations. Recent stock market volatility reflects investors’ concerns about the outlook for global economic growth, which could boost demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. However, strong economic data and the Fed's "hawkish" stance have eased market concerns about risky assets to a certain extent, weakening the safe-haven function of gold. 1 The Fed hinted that it will slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in the future, which will put some pressure on gold. 2 The speed of global economic growth will affect investors' preference for risky assets, weakening the safe-haven function of gold. 3 The current 1-hour downward trend of gold is clear. In summary, the current short-term trend of gold is weak. Today, investors are paying attention to the pressure area of ​​the 1-hour downward trend line above, and gold will be shorted after adjustment under pressure.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Yuliya1l11
1
Gold: Multi Tie FrameHello Traders In the weekly timeframe, an ascending channel is observed, showing a good reaction at its upper boundary. We are waiting for a price pullback to the next resistance level. In the daily chart, an ascending trendline has been broken, with two returns to the breakdown area around 2600.700, indicating the strength of sellers. The price returning to this area for the third time also shows the buyers' insistence. If the price can stabilize below 2532.800, the likelihood of further decline increases. Conversely, if the price cannot break through the green zone, we predict an upward movement to 2606.200. At the same time, we anticipate a slow downward trend and fluctuations to around 2568 in the coming days.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AliSignals
Bravura Solutions | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Notes On Session # Bravura Solutions - Double Formation * 1.600 AUD | Trend Line Survey Valid * 0.800 AUD | Trend Line Uptrend Bias | Subdivision 1 - Triple Formation * Retracement 1 | Not Numbered | Consolidation | Subdivision 2 * Median)) | Conditions Entered | Survey Valid At 1.800 AUD * Retracement 2 | Numbered | Subdivision 3 Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; European Session(Upwards) - US-Session(Downwards) - Asian Session(Ranging) Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand; Overall Consensus | Buy
CAPITALCOM:BVSAULong
by TradePolitics
The whole market's going down, pick one and buy it at the bottomI rolled the dice and put in an overnight order for COINBASE:NEARUSD @ $3.675 Runner up was COINBASE:HNTUSD Will it get there? Might be a stretch, but looks possible, looks like everything is about to crash a little bit. What if it doesn't get there? Who cares. I'm never upset about losing zero dollars. But folks, I think it's going there, maybe not overnight, but all kinds of things are headed to all kinds of recent extreme bottoms.
COINBASE:NEARUSD
by Hollywood260AB
WIF/USDT: DOUBLE TARGET SETUP - 160% POTENTIAL MOONSHOT Technical Analysis: - Current price: 1.917 USDT - Strong support level forming at trendline confluence - Significant volume spike indicating potential reversal Entry Strategy: ✅ Strategic Entry: 1.500 USDT - Key historical support zone - Trendline support confluence - Oversold conditions on multiple timeframes Target Projections: 🎯 Target 1: 2.930 USDT (95% ROI) - Major resistance level - Previous market structure - Key psychological level 🎯 Target 2: 3.918 USDT (161% ROI) - All-time high retest zone - Major fibonacci extension level - Huge potential reward zone Risk Management (CRITICAL): ⚠️ Stop Loss: -5% below entry - Clear invalidation point - Protected by major support - 1:19 and 1:32 Risk-Reward ratios Key Catalysts: - Major trend line support holding since August - Volume profile suggesting accumulation - Multiple timeframe alignment - Clear market structure for upside Trading Plan: 🚨 1. Scale in near 1.500 USDT 2. First take-profit at 2.930 (50% position) 3. Trail stops after first target 4. Hold remainder for moonshot target ⚠️ Important Notes: - High-conviction multi-target setup - Patience required for entry - Volume confirmation essential - Scale-in approach recommended 🔔 Remember: - DYOR (Do Your Own Research) - Never risk more than you can afford - Set proper position sizes - Follow your trading plan #Crypto #WIF #TechnicalAnalysis #SpotTrading #CryptoGems #MoonShot 🚀 Would you like me to break down any specific aspect of this analysis further?
Long
by Supachai-Taechapisit
AXL/USDT: MAJOR ASCENDING CHANNEL - 85% PROFIT POTENTIAL SETUPTechnical Analysis: 🎯 - Trading within a strong ascending channel since August 2024 - Current price: 0.7145 USDT - Price retesting major channel support - prime entry zone Entry Strategy: ✅ Strategic Entry: 0.7007 USDT - Perfect channel support confluence - Higher lows pattern maintained - Volume profile showing accumulation signs Target Projection: 🎯 Primary Target: 1.3114 USDT (87% ROI potential) - Channel resistance alignment - Historical resistance zone - Clear upward trajectory within channel Risk Management (CRITICAL): ⚠️ Stop Loss: -4% below entry - Protected by channel support - Clear invalidation level - Impressive 1:21.75 Risk-Reward ratio Key Technical Factors: - Ascending channel providing clear direction - Multiple touches validating channel strength - Price action showing healthy pullback to support - Volume confirming key reversals at support Trading Plan: 1. Enter at 0.7007 USDT 2. Stop loss at -4% for capital protection 3. Partial profits recommended at channel midpoint 4. Final target at upper channel resistance ⚠️ Important Notes: - Channel trades require patience - Watch for bullish confirmation at entry - Volume confirmation crucial - Always use proper position sizing 🔔 Remember: - DYOR (Do Your Own Research) - Risk management is crucial - Market conditions can change - Follow your trading plan strictly #TechnicalAnalysis #AXL #Crypto #SpotTrading #ChannelTrading #CryptoTrading Would you like me to provide alternative title options or elaborate on any aspect of this analysis? 🚨
Long
by Supachai-Taechapisit
LTC | ALTCOINS | Sinking Ship? Verdict is inLTC has been a topic of many discussions during 2024, with the biggest question being around it's ability to reclaim past highs (and make a new ATH). Similarly to UNI and ADA (to name a few), Litecoin has been unable to break out above it's immediate major resistance zones. This goes to show that there are bag-holders creating major supply zones. This is NOT GOOD for any coin, as it really damages it's potential for organic growth. ________________________ BINANCE:LTCUSDT
Short
by CryptoCheck-