CHFJPY 4H LONG setup
CHFJPY has been consolidating for a long period of time and finally broke the resistance level recently, which possibly helped to form an upward Break of Structure(BOS) confirmation too, seen on 4H chart. Look at the Daily or Weekly chart, you can see that we are in clear uptrend, it is a good idea to follow the big trend. Now when the price pulls back to the 4H Order Block, we can BUY, this is a classic trend-following trade.
Entry: 172.060
Stop Loss: 171.471
Take Profit: 180.117
Risk Reward Ratio: 13.8
Trendfollowing
EURJPY bearish continuation expected
EURJPY we are have strong bearish push, which is be based on BoJ rate cut which we are have before 2 weeks, when they are raise rates.
Here now on lower TF we can see DESCENDING pat created, this idea is based on TREND follow and still expect to see new higher bearish from here.
Currently price look like its make break, EUR technically with many look bearish and fundamentally tomorrow we will have strong EUR event (German GDP) where expect more weaknes on EUR.
TP1: 157.600 (300)
TP2: 156.100 (450)
PayPal Recovering 42% From Recent LowsStrategic partnerships between major companies like PayPal and Adyen are enhancing consumer convenience with their new project, Fastlane by PayPal. Aimed at revolutionizing the checkout process for U.S. enterprise and marketplace users, Fastlane combines PayPal and Adyen's technologies to streamline guest checkout, significantly reducing purchase completion time.
A key feature of Fastlane is its ability to remember users' payment and shipping details, facilitating quicker future transactions. According to PayPal's data from April to June 2024, Fastlane increased checkout conversion rates by over 80% and decreased checkout time by 32% compared to traditional methods, indicating a boost in customer satisfaction and retention.
Adyen, recognized for its extensive fintech solutions, is the first payment processor partnering in the Fastlane initiative, which supports PayPal’s goal of global expansion. The service now includes more payment options like Venmo and various Buy Now, Pay Later schemes, accessible worldwide through Adyen’s platform, enhancing payment flexibility.
The introduction of Fastlane might influence the financial sector and stock market, especially considering PayPal's stock recovery signs after a significant drop. Strategic developments such as Fastlane could be crucial for further growth as the stock challenges major resistance levels.
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See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Bitcoin bullish case for the weekI did this analysis yesterday. The case is the following. I expected this drop to the current levels of $62,000 to lead to a meanreversion to the EMA50 on the 4-hour time frame. In the bullish case, we hold the EMA50 and see higher prices. The targets for upside continuation would be $66k and $69k for this week.
A Guide on How to Stay on the Right Side of Market RiskStaying on the right side of the market is the only thing that matters in investing. The goal is simple: be long the things that go up and avoid the things that go down. Although this sounds straightforward, investors often focus too much on the upside potential and forget about the downside. In reality, avoiding the downside is by far the most important factor that will have the biggest impact on your total returns. This is because a -50% loss will always require a +100% gain just to break even.
Step 1: Follow the Trend
The most effective method to stay on the right side of the market is by following the trend, primarily through moving averages. The two most common types are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The EMA assigns more weight to recent price movements, making it more responsive and effective for signalling the start of a downtrend, while the SMA offers a clearer view of the longer-term trend.
The simplest way to construct a trend-following indicator is to combine a short-term EMA with a long-term EMA. A buying signal is triggered when the short-term EMA crosses above the long-term EMA, and a selling signal is triggered when it crosses below. This systematic approach ensures clear and actionable signals.
Optimizing this strategy involves backtesting various EMA combinations to strike a balance between minimal trading frequency, lowest maximum drawdown, and highest profit factor. It’s also crucial to select assets that have historically adhered to trends, as these are more likely to continue doing so.
Assets that typically adhere to trends, such as cryptocurrencies, fiat currencies, commodities, and tech stocks, are often driven by speculative or uncertain future expectations. By incorporating a longer-term SMA and adding a safety margin to the calculation, you can help minimize false signals from the EMAs.
It’s advisable to compare asset performance not only against the USD pair but also against the safest investable asset in the selected asset class. This comparison helps determine if the additional risk is worth taking.
Step 2: Draw the Lines
Trend-following strategies are effective only with a clear market trend. Without it, prices may exhibit range-bound movements and generate false signals. Drawing trend lines and identifying horizontal support and resistance levels are crucial for enhancing the accuracy of these signals. The most reliable entry points typically follow a confirmed breakout from these lines, with older lines often indicating more significant breakouts.
When drawing trend lines, it’s crucial to use both normal and logarithmic chart scales. The most reliable trend lines appear consistent across these scales, with a breakout observed on both further confirming the trend.
Additionally, identifying reliable patterns like head and shoulders, inverse head and shoulders or double tops and bottoms can further validate trend breakouts. TradingView’s pattern recognition tools can automate this process and provide price targets, which can be helpful but are not always guaranteed.
Step 3: Understand the Macro
Following current macroeconomic conditions can enhance your understanding of the overall business cycle. The primary macro forces that influence asset markets are growth, inflation, and policy. These factors are subjective and not directly quantifiable, making them unsuitable for direct investment decisions. However, they are useful for assessing the market’s risk appetite, which should influence only your position size and not your systematic approach.
The US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is one of the most informative macroeconomic indicators, providing insights into potential economic growth trends and helping anticipate inflections in the business cycle.
Monitoring the US inflation and unemployment rates is also beneficial, as they significantly influence monetary policy. While minor fluctuations may not provide much insight, sustained trends that align with the Federal Reserve’s targets of 2% inflation and low unemployment are indicative of a healthy economy.
Furthermore, tracking global liquidity can reveal the real-time effects of monetary and fiscal policies implemented by major central banks and governments. This serves as a valuable tool to assess the market’s risk appetite.
In conclusion, this guide helps investors stay on the right side of the market by adopting a systematic approach that captures bull markets while avoiding major downturns. Recognizing that the future is unpredictable and that markets are driven by momentum, this method can both preserve and grow your wealth in a less stressful way. A disciplined, systematic approach, executed dispassionately, is essential for navigating market uncertainties. All indicators discussed are publicly available or can be accessed on my profile.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
EURGBP Start taking profits now! If you are in this trade on the 1 hour demand zone then I would start taking profits and keep a close eye on this one!
Here are the MAIN 2 reasons!
1. The 4-hour chart is in a downtrend on your TrendCloud (shown by the red candle and black cross) Momentum filter is also down with a bearish divergence signal.
2. The 1-hour chart is in a downtrend and CCI is still showing strength to the downside.
There is NO WAY to tell how much of a reaction this demand zone will produce. So if you're in it then start taking profits. And if you're waiting for an entry then start looking for your supply zones on the 15-minute chart.
TRIP.com / Beginning of Up Trend Stock Beginning of the trend Stock, breaking the Wyckoff accumulation Phase
and has Volume Profile Normal Distribution Support
The volume from Accumulation Phase has not yet been sold out. It can continue with accumulated volume with first target at 261.8 Fibonacci Retracement and cluster with 161.8 of Fibonacci Extension.
Strategy Buy on dip at 368 - 390 for buy set 1 and if the price drops to 368, there is still buy set 2 at prices 330-355 by waiting for Reversal Pattern.
Trading in your plan with your faith,
C.Goii Super Trader
IFCI Giving a Strong BreakOutIFCI Ltd. operates as a non-banking finance company, which engages financing activities that cover various projects. It supports projects such as airports, roads, telecom, power, real estate, manufacturing, services sector and such other allied industries.The company was founded on July 1, 1948 and is headquartered in New Delhi, India.
Stop-Loss: 65
Target: 85
Consider exiting half your position after a 10-12% gain and hold the rest to capture the trend.
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions.
ENGINERSIN giving a good BreakoutEngineers India Ltd. engages in providing engineering, technical, and consultancy services. The firm operates through the following segments: Consultancy & Engineering Projects and Turnkey Projects. The company was founded on March 15, 1965 and is headquartered in New Delhi, India.
Stop-Loss: 268
Target: 350
Consider exiting half your position after a 10-12% gain and hold the rest to capture the trend.
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions.
Mastering Market Trends: An Introduction to Heikin Ashi CandlesHeikin Ashi candles, originating from Japan, are a distinct type of candlestick chart used in technical analysis to identify market trends. The term "Heikin Ashi" translates to "average bar" in Japanese, which reflects their method of calculation
This video explains Heikin Ashi candles and how they can be used to improve entrances and exits.
TFEX S50 Swing ShortTFEX S50 Swing Short
Still keeping perspective in all my Trend
Primary, Secondary, Minor : Down Trend
This swing cycle saw another short position order at the Island Gap Reversals and Follow Sell when the price jumped down the next day.
Short only strategy with a price target of 770 along the Standard Deviation of the Volume Profile that forms a Normal Distribution shape.
XAUUSD Swing TrendXAUUSD Swing Trend
Down Trend in my 3 Trends Analysis
Open a Sell position when the price reaches the FVG zone and make a Reversal Pattern which is close to the Cancel Minor Trend line which is a short Stop Loss point and is also a significant line from the POC of Volume Normal Distribution above.
Still looking down And the downward momentum will look better when the price drops below 2280.
The target is to drop in the area of 2200 - 2150 which is the lower support zone.
Things to be careful about: Time Cycle, the latest low was exactly 21 days, so this set of downtrends should break the Low to head down for 34 days, according to the Fibonacci proportion.
Trade with faith in your beliefs and follow your own plan.
C.Goii SuperTrader
Up-trend stocks: ROBINHOODUp-trend stocks, Break accumulated Phase, Market Structure Shift and Break Market Structure.
Volume Profile shows accumulation as Normal Distribution.
When the price can break up, it is a Buy on breakout and Buy on dip point all the way by framing the trend line channel.
Story Support: Robinhood to acquire crypto exchange Bitstamp in $200M deal.
TFEX S50 FuturesTFEX S50 Futures
All Trend is Down in Primary, Secondary and Minor
Strategy 1: Wait for the price to rise to the resistance level (Supply Zone, POC of Volume and Regression Trend) then open Short Position.
Strategy 2: Divide Open Short Position and cut the losses short with Minor Trend
Target at Range Volatile 1 Month and 3 Month Low around 800 -790 point as last opinion.
XAU/USD Swing TrendXAU/USD Swing Trend
- Primary : Down Trend
- Secondary : Down Trend
- Minor : Down Trend
I think now It may be at the end of leg C of 4. and Finished 13 day of Down Trend Already.
However, Trade with the trend, when my Minor Trend looked up, I then waited for the price to adjust down to the EMA line and to the +1 SD line as well.
Therefore, the Buy Position has been opened. The target is to make a profit in the area of 2400, which is the Supply Zone. And place SL when the price breaks the POC of Volume below.
TFEX S50 FuturesTFEX S50 Futures looking down in all 3 Trend
Primary trends
Secondary trends
Minor Trends
At the moment it is at the -2SD support level of the Volume Normal distribution and POC of Regression Trend
Now Volume Profile of last Degree move down to the bottom that might bounce.
If looking down, wait for a bounce and then open a short at the POC resistance level or wait for a reversal at the upper edge.
If you look up and don't care about the trend, open Long at the support level, set Stop Loss at Low.
However, There is a target of going down in the Range Volatile month and 3rd month
At 800 it is still the first target.
Trade with faith in your beliefs and follow your own plan.
C.Goii SuperTrader
TFEX S50 : Swing TrendTFEX S50 : Swing Trend
Case Study : Entry short when the price moves up to the resistance level and makes a Reversal Pattern.
When the Minor Trend returns to Down Trend Bias, aligned with the Primary Trend, it is the entry point for a Short Position. So can take profit at the support Poc of Regression Trend Line.
From Inception to Present: Our Crypto Model's Trades to DateIntroduction
In this idea, we'll analyze the performance of our crypto trend model by breaking down each individual trade made since it went live on 27th July 2023 . We'll delve into key market events that occurred around these trades and the run-up gains or drawdown avoidance achieved by the model.
Trade Breakdown
Short Signal - July 27, 2023
Trade Outcome :
Date : July 27, 2023
Signal : Short📉
Market Context :
Event : In July 2023, Bitcoin faced a significant resistance around $30K, leading to a sharp rejection and subsequent price drop. This resistance level was critical, and the rejection marked the start of a downturn.
Performance : The short signal successfully captured the decline, gaining almost 15% at it's climax on just Bitcoin alone. The model's entry just before the major resistance test was well-timed.
Long Signal - September 19, 2023
Trade Outcome :
Date : September 19, 2023
Signal : Long📈
Market Context :
Event : By mid-September, Bitcoin found solid support around $25,000 after a volatile summer. This support level triggered a significant bounce, making it a prime entry point for a long position.
Performance : The long signal capitalized on the bounce from $25,000, leading to a max run-up of 80% as Bitcoin rallied. Holding positions on altcoins in confluence with this signal would have likely yielded at least twice of what was gained on Bitcoin.
Cash Signal - January 15, 2024
Trade Outcome :
Date : January 15, 2024
Signal : Cash💰
Market Context :
Event : Early January saw a recovery in Bitcoin prices driven by positive macroeconomic signals, such as slowing inflation. However, regulatory pressures and market volatility prompted caution. This pullback was also likely due to the Bitcoin ETFs Launch having a "sell the news" narrative.
Performance : The cash signal helped avoid drawdowns of up to -10.61% and even more on altcoins during a period of increased market uncertainty and regulatory challenges.
Long Signal - January 30, 2024
Trade Outcome :
Date : January 30, 2024
Signal : Long📈
Market Context :
Event :The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024 significantly boosted market sentiment. This approval was a pivotal event, sparking a bullish trend right after a small retracement.
Performance : The long signal leveraged the positive sentiment and regulatory clarity, benefiting from the ensuing price surge and experiencing a max run-up of almost 72% on Bitcoin.
Cash Signal - April 13, 2024
Trade Outcome :
Date : April 13, 2024
Signal : Cash💰
Market Context :
Event :April 2024 witnessed mixed signals with regulatory updates and market corrections. The Financial Stability Board's new regulatory framework added to the cautious market sentiment. And with added FUD coming from Iran's attacks on Israel, the prices of not just crypto but other assets such as stocks started to tumble.
Performance : The cash signal once again helped sidestep market turbulence, preserving gains from earlier trades, essentially avoiding up to -11.51% of drawdowns.
Long Signal - May 17, 2024
Trade Outcome :
Date : May 17, 2024
Signal : Long📈
Market Context :
Event :As of May 2024, the crypto market showed resilience with new institutional interest and advancements in blockchain technology. This renewed interest provided a solid foundation and confluence for a long position
Performance : As the signal came in just 3 days ago as of writing, we will update on the performance of this signal at a later date.
Conclusion
The crypto trend model demonstrated robust performance by effectively navigating through various market conditions and key events. Each and every trade has been overwhelmingly successful, and the model's signals is expected to continue capitalizing on gains and avoid major drawdowns in the future.
Stay tuned for more updates and detailed analyses on our crypto trend model's performance.
A weaker Australian Dollar vs US DollarThe Australian dollar appears reluctant to break above its resistance level, so we consider selling and targeting the support level below. We believe that the current market conditions suggest a bearish outlook for the Australian dollar, as it struggles to gain momentum above the resistance level. By selling at this point and targeting the support level below, we aim to capitalize on potential downward movement in the currency.