Trends heading into the FOMC Rate DecisionOverheated market trends showing a bull market is basically my findings. I have not held into positions, long or short, going into this last surge. I had a relatively promising month in January and decided I would just end it on that note.
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 4925 Downtrend (1/31/2024) Lower Low
1Hr - 4933 Downtrend (1/31/2024) Higher Low
2Hr - 4925 Downtrend (1/31/2024) Higher Low
3Hr - 4954 Uptrend (1/29/2024) Higher High
4Hr - 4829 Uptrend (1/19/2024) Higher High
6Hr - 4797 Uptrend (1/8/2024) Higher High
12Hr - 4848 Uptrend (1/19/2024) Higher High
Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
As explained, that 30m is showing the first sign of weakness for this surge to come back at all.
Additionally, I read a report with Dow Jones Newswires that most of the insider trading lately has been little to no buying and lots of selling. Basically that means that members with stocks in their own companies are taking profits and not investing further into their company. I wouldn't take this as a sign that they think their company is in trouble, but more as a sign that they feel their stocks are overvalued and it is profitable to sell now and repurchase later.
Economic Data today is going to the FED Meeting Minutes and the subsequent statement by Jerome Powell. I don't foresee, nor does the market, of any interest rate movement today.
Geopolitical tensions continue to worsen in the Middle East. The latest is a Drone strike in Jordan that killed 3 US Servicemembers. I've been very surprised that the market has not priced in any sort of issues coming from the Israel/Hamas conflict or any of the tensions and skirmish fighting in the surrounding area.
Overall, I see a huge threat to potential inflationary pressure disrupting this upward movement in the long term. Not some sort of pressure that would take us to a surge in inflation back to 9% like we were, but certainly not allowing us to reach a 2% target rate and having some minor upward movement instead of continuing the downtrend we have seen over the last year.
Overall, my sentiment is fairly neutral. While I had held a bullish sentiment with spots of bearish profit taking before, I see overall a neutral movement from here, as my estimate for our top over this year was to be 5000 and we've almost reached that already.
