Gold Steady; Focus on US Inflation and FedTechnical Analysis with fundamentally
The price has followed its bearish trend, reaching our target of 2290
The price will touch 2302 and then will consolidate between 2302 and 2292 till breaking
Bearish Scenario: The price may correct to 2302. If it remains below this level, it will drop to 2292. A break below 2292 could lead to a further decline towards 2278, a strong support line.
Bullish Scenario: For the bullish trend to continue, the price must break above 2303 and stabilize. This would pave the way for a move towards 2321 and 2328.
Pivot Line: 2302
Resistance Lines: 2320, 2333, 2357
Support Lines: 2278, 2260, 2248
Today's expected price movement range is between the support level of 2278 and the resistance level of 2305.
previous idea:
Gold Steady After Sharp Sell-Off; Focus Shifts to US Inflation Data and Fed Decision
Gold Prices Stabilize:
Gold prices steadied on Monday after experiencing the largest drop in three-and-a-half years in the previous session. This decline was driven by disappointing economic data from China and the U.S., affecting speculators betting on Chinese demand and a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
China's Impact on Gold Market:
Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke noted that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has historically had phases of buying gold followed by prolonged breaks. "As long as the PBOC doesn't resume buying, gold prices could trade sideways since Chinese buying is a key market focus," Menke explained.
Market Sentiment and Volatility:
Menke also highlighted the significant sentimental shift seen last Friday and expressed skepticism about a similar volatility outbreak this week unless there are major surprises from the CPI or the Fed, which he considers unlikely.
Focus on U.S. Inflation and Fed Decision:
Attention has now shifted to the U.S. consumer inflation report, due on Wednesday, coinciding with the Fed's policy decision. The U.S. central bank is not expected to change rates this week. Instead, the focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments and any updates to economic projections from policymakers.
Interest Rate Cut Speculation:
Expectations of a Fed rate cut in September have dropped to 49% from around 70% before the latest jobs data. UBS analysts noted, "We expect the Federal Reserve's median 'dots plots' to show two cuts in 2024, down from three, but inflation should still moderate, and a September cut remains our base case."
