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Tradewar

A partial war-trade deal? / Semiconductors +Trump has said many times before, he did not want a "partial" trade deal. There seems to be real volume and buying, sending the whole market to highs. There is a possibility that this "partial deal" is just a delay of tariffs (october 15th, and December?) and buying of agricultural products (soybeam, pork). Which we have seen before, unfortunately, to mean nothing. ------ Have a great long weekend. Trading starts Tuesday because of Columbus day on Monday 14th.
NASDAQ:SOXX
by dorfmanmaster
Brexit breakthrough and markets bet on the breakthrough in US-ChThere were no major breakthroughs at the meeting between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Irish counterpart Taoiseach Leo Varadkar over the Irish border backstop. Recall that today it is the main sticking point that stops signing an agreement with the EU. As a result, the GBPUSD soared more than 250 points. However, this is not the end so you should not relax. Next week, the EU summit will take place, from which markets are waiting for a final decision on Brexit. Current options for the development of events include an agreement with the UK, another delay or exit without a deal. We have been supporting pound purchases for a long time since we believe in Brexit deal. Negotiations between the USA and China continued to be the hottest one. Trump said the talks went well. Today, Trump will host Liu He, Vice Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, in the White House, so surges in volatility in the financial markets are still likely. The markets seemed to be imbued with Trump's confidence, as demand for the Chinese yuan in the options market sharply increased (over the past 24 hours, traders bought two-month options in the dollar/yuan with a strike at 6.95 for $ 650 million). That is, traders are trying to prepare for the success of the negotiations and are waiting for the renminbi to strengthen. trading decisions have to be made with an eye to a possible change in the existing fundamental background. Regarding our position on safe-haven assets, today we will not recommend buying gold or the Japanese yen. The situation is too unpredictable, and the risks are too high. Our recommendation for today is the adaption to any negotiation outcome. The success of negotiations between the United States and China, in theory, will be accompanied by haven assets sales. Accordingly, you can act respectively, with that. Yesterday, pound dynamics showed that even a late call could bring significant profits. If negotiations fail, you can act respectively purchasing gold and the Japanese yen. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, Employment Change in Canada is what we are interested in. So today is an interesting day to work the Canadian dollar.
Long
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX: GBPUSD, USDCAD: Surprise on the US-Sino and Brexix FrontsIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPUSDand #USDCAD FX Majors! GBPUSD records best day in months - Johnson-Varadkar see "pathway to deal" by end of October - Despite GDP and MAnufacturing data disappointed USDCAD down on tradewr optimism - Trump changed mind and now is open to a partial deal - Willing to and will meet He on Friday to resume talks - Cad stronger as oil supported by positive headlines (China is big oil importer) Looking forward to Canada's employment report! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
Why partial trade agreement won't help China in a long/termSince the trade war started, investors were anxious to see an agreement between USA and China. But there is one huge problem, if we analyze SHCOMP behavior since 2015.mid, it will become quite obvious that China has overdebt problems. Earleir this year Chienesee Central Bank had to bail out at least 3 major banks.. Since 2018 major newspapers were publishing articles about upcoming recession in china. In order to prevent this from happening, they began injecting billions of dollars in its economy. However, the results were minimum, meaning that collapse is not so far. Eventually chinese debt bubble will burst and it will affect nmot only the asia/pacific region but the world's economy. All i say is that in a short term this tradeagreement may help chinese markets but there are problems to be solved on internal level..
SShort
by Market_Referee
ORBEX: GBPCHF, AUDJPY - Tradetalk & Brexit Signals Mixed! In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #gbpchf and #audjpy minors! Both pairs are showing an identical pattern and are indeed influenced by: AUDJPY - Tradewar tensions but latest from positive developments on the back of a potential partial deal Chinese are willing to do - Positive Home Loans in AU and negative BoJ Corporate Goods Price Index figures GBPCHF - Blury Brexit developments with the risk of an election following an extension increasing - UK-EU talks not looking good despite EU announcing otherwise Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
Nothing has changed! All eyes on trade meetings.Let me clear some things up: I am not a day trader. So, my charts are what I see from a swing trading perspective. I look for opportunities that might not play out today, tomorrow, or even next week. Rather, I look for opportunities that I think might play out anywhere from today to a month (or a little more) from now. Not long term, but short to mid-term... I'm a swing trader. Please keep that in mind when you view my charts. As always, I appreciate each and every comment and follower! Good luck to all, and may we ALL profit!! YouTube: Dumb Money Trader www.dumbmoneytrader.com www.twitter.com www.facebook.com
AMEX:SPYLong
by Bankuur
5
On current market fears, Brexit failure and oil purchasesThis week, markets have completely focused on the negotiation process between the US and China. We will closely monitor as well as the dynamics of safe-haven assets, which fully correlates with a market statement regarding the outcome of the negotiations. It is already obvious that the success of negotiations would affect gold - a decline in the are of 1420 +/- seems very likely. But the failure in the negotiations process with a high probability will end with a re-test of the highs of the beginning of September, that is, 1550. It is difficult to say which variant is more likely. Yesterday, the markets supported the second one. This was evidenced by the dynamics of safe-haven assets, the VIX Fear Index and the general news background - the parties took quite similar positions and whether they can get a compromise is not yet clear. This refers to the news that the US blacklisted 8 Chinese companies, and China in response promised to take the same measures. In general, not the best background for successful negotiations. Total: the situation is developing, but it is extremely favourable for trade in gold and the Japanese yen. Patience and approach from good points practically guarantee earnings. As for the direction, we tend to buy both gold and the Japanese yen. But once again we note: purchases are relevant in the absence of fundamental contraindications. If there is news of a breakthrough in negotiations appears, purchases should be postponed at least until the details are clarified. In addition to the United States and China, the EU and the United Kingdom exchange mutual claims. The negotiation process is also far from a successful end and there is a chance that it would lead to paralysis. Johnson is infuriating the EU. And his last call Merkel, for many created the feeling that there would be no deal. But we continue to believe in common sense and the victory of global economic interests over local personal ambitions. Also, Johnson's failure to make a deal does not mean an automatic exit without a deal. Recall, Parliament obligated him to ask for a postponement if the deal was not agreed before October 17. So the purchase of the pound after yesterday did not become hopeless. Rather the magnitude of risks per position decreased, while profits increased. In the oil market, WTI prices meanwhile have come to basic support around 51.20. Although we are medium-term oil bears, buying with current prices seems like a good deal. The stops - below 51, but the profit set up in the area of 56 (if the correction begins, then this will be its minimum goal). But again, we’ll warn you f breakdown of negotiations between the US and China could hit oil value - in this case, support 51.20 will not stand. So we are acting with an eye on the news background.
Short
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX: Gold, Oil: Affected by Trump, BoJo, Powell!In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #wti #oil and #gold Gold and Oil affected by (what moves gold up, weakens oil): - Tradewar tensions after Trump imposed visa restrictions to Chinese officials - A worsening growth outlook for global economies - Potential early election in the UK as hopes of Oct resolution fade away - Fed's short-term bond purchase expansion to credit banks (not QE) Oil also affected by: - Poor API but was offset by Equador disruptions - Tradewar anxiety ahead f Thursday talk resumption Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Orbex
US and China getting ready for negotiations, Brexit stuckU.S.-China trade talks kick off again this week. Negotiations between the United States and China are set to begin on Thursday. China is not going to reform industrial policies or government subsidies, that is, wanted to continue to ensure the competitiveness of its products by any means, including not very honest ones. Trump said that any agreed deal would be a 100% victory for the United States. Despite the fact that the US negotiating position is deteriorating every day (the US economy is signalling a slowdown, which is the result of the trade war, which means that the United States are interested in the deal), and the impeachment procedure does not contribute Trump to growth of his bravado and aggression in the negotiations. So the outcome of the negotiations does not seem predictable. As for the state of the world economy and the US economy, in particular, it is worth noting information about the upcoming personnel retrenchment in HSBC (up to 10,000 jobs), as well as the news that General Electric will freeze pensions for 20,000 workers. All these are extremely unpleasant signals. Recall, dollar sales remain our basic trading idea. At least this week. Our recommendation is to buy gold and the Japanese yen, despite their yesterday's decline, remain relevant. Today's entry points are close to ideal ones. Entering positions is necessary consciously, taking into account the fundamental background at that time, and also do not forget about the stops. These positions are good and prospective, but the fundamental background to relax. Any news on negotiations between the US and China will provoke a sale of gold - keep in mind. Another promising position, in our opinion, is the purchase of the British pound. A version of the agreement from Johnson was rejected by the EU and essentially sent for rework. On the one hand, the very fact of substantive negotiations suggests that the parties intend to conclude a deal. And on the other, Johnson is unpredictable. However, we believe in common sense, as well as the British Parliament, and advise to take advantage of the current uncertainty for purchases of the still cheap pound. Until October 31 (the deadline for Britain to exit the EU) there is not much time left.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Short USD Long Yen Is the Hot New FX Bet During Trade WarFundamentals point towards a bullish Yen and with recent Non-Farm numbers showing up lower than expected, we should see a rally in the Yen and a decline in USD pairs. It may not happen suddenly and take time before we see this happens, perhaps towards the end of the month, but if my technicals give me a signal before the news hits, then I am in. Anything can happen so I am also prepared to long this pair if underlying circumstances presents themselves.
by bajapips
XAUUSDEven though the markets show a high level of uncertainty, the charts still show that technicals are still very good drivers to indicate where price is turning to next. After the 2019 rally of gold, bears get their selling opportunity. Price is trading toward the downside to find support somewhere around 1434.26 or possibly, 1132.82 Temporary short until price can conform back to bull-ish momentum. Despite horrible economic data that serves as great catalyst to go long, gold still continues to make lower highs off the daily time frame. It's safe to say I will stick to a technical bias for the time being, until gold has proven to reject a serious level of support.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by JohnAlmighty
GOLD SHORT SETUPLooking at Gold for a probable short trade Opportunity On weekly timeframe Price was rejected from a Supply zone aligned perfectly with the 3rd touch of an Ascending channel on the daily time frame price formed a Head and shoulder pattern signaling a Trend reversal dropping on the 4 Hour timeframw we have Double top at the Top of the structure(HEAD) and currently looking for a Bear flag confirmation retracing the neckline for the downward momentum to be confirmed
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KLETUS_KUNDY
BTC | Correlation doesn't assume causationIt sure doesn't. But in BTC's case, it seems as though the two go hand in hand. And despite the rhetoric of BTC being a hedge against risk on assets, since 2011, BTC has a correlation coefficient of about r=0.78 compared to that with gold of about r= -0.14. Go figure. And then again, when all shit breaks loose, all asset classes converge to 1. But BTC has never experienced a macro econ recession. If it does, will it also be gaining? As CNBC's Thomas Lee once stated BTC is ambidextrous, we all hope so. And although BTC is volatile as f*ck, compared to the S&P, BTC's Sharpe Ratio once again steals the show: BTC YTD Sharpe: 42.9 S&P YTD Sharpe: 20.8 So what's is going to take for BTC to pump again? Do we need the S&P to also pump some? Well as the eve of the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China creeps up on us, it's easy to say getting a trade deal done will be the catalyst. But with comments from US officials on Friday threatening to delist Chinese stocks from US exchanges...HOLD on tighter.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by jiamijiang
ORBEX: EURUSD, USDJPY - The Risks Of A US-EU TradewarIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #EURUSD and #USDJPY #EURUSD weak on: - US-EU potential trade conflict (airbus illegal state aid - WTO depended) - ECB's Germans board member resignation Medium-term #Euro led flows will hang on Lagarde's policy. A potential transition to fiscal tools will be euro positive #USDJPY strong on: - Dovish Evans turned neutral - Positive home sales - No GDP revision - No safe-haven flows - Dollar seen as risk positive Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex