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Trading Plan Build Exercise - Trade off OrderblocksBefore ICT’s Month 6 - Lesson 3 Video → Here is where I’m doing the homework from Lesson 2 (Building an example Trading plan) emagloire.atlassian.net (Page for Homework Sheet) The way Arjo explains there are 5 Foundational Levels within a Trade: Bias Narrative Context Entry Risk Management You work to build through a backward approach where you start from Entry (Risk Management actually lol) and work into what environments/elements/conditions constitute a trade to be executed in your plan This exercise of building an example trading plan is influenced by Arjo’s structure in the above video. How to build a Data Trading Plan PD Array and Time in Focus What PD Array you want to key in What timeframe you want to execute on? Gather Data in Specified Timeframe to understand amount of Trading Opportunities Presented and what was the expected outcomes How many times does the Orderblock form? How many times does the Orderblock hold? Did the Orderblock created a Market Structure Shift? How many times does the Orderblock Fail? Did the Orderblock fail to create a Market Structure Shift? Then based off the data, build your Trading Plan with consideration for what elements made up the winning trades. Starting with a Naked Trading Plan where you consider all entries off the PD Arrays. PD Array in Focus: PD Array: Orderblocks that led to a Market Structure Shift (Break of Structure “Continuation” & Change of Character “Reversal“) Execution Timeframe: 1H Gather Data: Case Study Info Ticker: GBPUSD Time of Study: May 27, 2024 - Jun 16, 2024 How many times does the Orderblock form? 26 times 2 orderblocks have not been traded to 24 useable Orderblocks 5 External Liquidity OBs 19 Internal Liquidity OBs Opportunity Rate: 92.3% How many times does the Orderblock hold? 15 times (Win Rate: 60%) External Liquidity: 4 out of 5 (80% WR) Internal Liquidity: 11 out of 20 (55% WR) How many times does the Orderblock Fail? 9 times (Loss Rate: 40%) External Liquidity: 1 out of 5 (20% LR) Internal Liquidity: 9 out of 20 (45% LR) Risk Management: Stop Loss at opposite extreme of OB or most recent Pullback (second Stop Loss considered when OB is tight) Risk/Reward Summary: 1: +2 RR 2: -1 RR 3: -1RR 4: +2 RR 5: +2 RR 6: +2 RR 7: -1 RR 8: +2 RR 9: -1 RR 10: +2 RR 11: +2 RR 12: +2 RR 13: -1 RR 14: +2 RR 15: -1 RR 16: -1 RR 17: +2 RR 18: +2 RR 19: +2 RR 20: -1 RR 21: +2 RR 22: +2 RR 23: -1 RR 24: +2 RR 25: N/A 21 RR for a month of Orderblock Trading 24 trades of 20 trading days Next Steps: With the same Trading Plan - analyze your Trades and create improved trading plans based off of an aspect that could increase your trading win rate or lower the amount of trades you’re in or total volume of trades?
by EaszzzyE
ETH BROADER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADE PLANPrice Movement The chart shows that Ethereum (ETH) has been moving within a descending trading channel after an earlier uptrend. The channel is well-defined by a series of lower highs and lower lows. The descending channel extends from around early 2024 and continues through the current period. The price seems to be consolidating after bouncing from the lower boundary of the channel. Current Price Action Ethereum is currently trading at $2,582.26, down by 1.50% at the time the chart was captured. The recent movement shows a potential double bottom near the lower channel support, signaling a possible end of the downtrend. The price is at a critical juncture, as it appears to be breaking out of the short-term resistance within the channel, hinting at a possible reversal or continued sideways movement. Descending Channel Structure The chart highlights a descending trading channel where price has respected the upper resistance and lower support levels multiple times, indicating the reliability of this structure. The channel also shows that while Ethereum is in a corrective phase, it still holds the potential for a significant bullish breakout if the current trend continues. Technical Indicators: Waveform Cipher shows a potential bullish divergence at recent price lows, which indicates momentum for a potential upward move. ASL (Advanced Stochastic Line) and HMA Histogram show mixed signals, but the overall sentiment from these indicators points toward a bullish setup in the coming days. Stochastic RSI suggests that Ethereum is currently in an oversold condition, increasing the likelihood of a rebound. The technical setup with momentum indicators and divergences indicates a potential for a price breakout upward, possibly leading toward the top of the channel. Price Targets: Immediate Resistance: The next resistance level is located around $2,750 - $3,000, near the mid-point of the channel. Upper Channel Boundary: The top of the channel is situated near $4,000, a key psychological and technical resistance level. If ETH breaks above this channel, the next major target would be $4,250 - $4,500, indicating a full recovery of the downtrend and a continuation of the broader uptrend. Key Support Levels: $2,400 is acting as immediate support, which aligns with the lower boundary of the descending channel. If Ethereum breaks below this level, the next major support lies near $2,200 - $2,000, which is a strong historical support zone. Trading Plan for Ethereum (ETH) Current Market Position: Given the technical analysis, Ethereum appears to be at a critical level within the descending trading channel, with the potential for a bullish breakout. The recent consolidation near the support line suggests an opportunity for a medium-term bullish trade. Entry Strategy: Buy Zone: Enter a long position between $2,550 - $2,600, once confirmation of a bullish reversal or breakout is evident (preferably on increased volume or further confirmation from momentum indicators like RSI/Stoch). Risk Management: Place a stop-loss at $2,400, which is slightly below the channel support and key psychological level. This mitigates downside risk in case of a bearish breakdown. Take Profit Targets: First Target: $2,750 - $3,000 – This is the mid-point resistance of the channel. Partial profits should be taken here, securing gains while allowing the remaining position to run. Second Target: $3,500 - $3,750 – Full break of the channel with increased momentum can take ETH to this level. This is a key level to exit most of the position or lock in more profits. Stretch Target: $4,000 - $4,200 – Ultimate price target based on the potential bullish reversal. If price approaches this level, full profit-taking is advisable as it would hit the channel’s upper boundary and a significant resistance area. Alternative Plan (If Breakdown Occurs): Short Position: If Ethereum breaks below $2,400, consider shorting ETH with a target toward $2,200 - $2,000 as a corrective phase could push ETH lower. In this case, place a stop-loss at $2,500, just above the breakdown level. Position Sizing: Risk only a small portion of your capital (e.g., 1-2%) based on the calculated stop-loss level to ensure risk management and preserve capital in case of invalidation. Ethereum is at a pivotal point within a descending trading channel. Current indicators suggest the possibility of a bullish breakout, but risks remain due to the general downtrend. The trading plan focuses on a conservative entry with clear stop-losses and take-profit levels to manage risk.
CRYPTO:ETHUSDLong
by elfabiiani
USD/JPY Long Trade: Building into Next Week's OpportunityGetting ready for next week's USD/JPY setup! 🚀 The market is aligning for a potential big move, and I'm positioning myself for the action. Watch closely as I plan my entries and manage the trade—timing is everything! ⏳ If you're into catching high-probability trades and want to see how I approach the markets, make sure to follow and stay tuned. Let’s ride this wave together! 📈 Don't miss out—like, comment, and share your thoughts below!
Long
by trader9224
1
Why TSLA Could Be Set to Rise: Key News and a Great Entry SetupTesla (TSLA) is in the spotlight right now, and several factors suggest a potential bullish trend in the stock next week: Strong Delivery Numbers: Tesla recently reported its Q2 2024 delivery figures, which exceeded many analysts' expectations. While the numbers were lower than last year's, they still indicate solid performance in a competitive EV market, with other automakers also experiencing growth. Upcoming Earnings Report: Tesla is scheduled to announce its Q2 2024 earnings on Tuesday. Analysts are forecasting revenue slightly above last year’s figures, with net income expected around $1.72 billion. Investors will be particularly interested in updates about Tesla's robotaxi plans, which have been postponed to October. This anticipation could drive excitement and boost the stock price. Market Recovery: Recently, TSLA experienced a drop of about 12.4% due to a global market sell-off. However, the stock has started to recover, and this volatility may present a buying opportunity, especially if the market stabilizes. High Probability Setup: According to technical analysis, there is a high probability setup that has already formed, indicating a favorable entry point for bullish trades. This technical signal, combined with the positive news and upcoming events, enhances the likelihood of a price increase. With these factors in play, including strong delivery numbers, an important earnings report, and a favorable technical setup, TSLA could see a bullish trend in the coming week. As always, be sure to conduct your own analysis and manage your risks before entering any trades. 6M: 3M: 1M: 2W: 1W: 3D: 2H: Entry
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Fractalyst
USDJPY Update: Adding LongsI'm building on a USD/JPY long trade that has already met its initial entry criteria and is performing well. The market continues to show bullish momentum, and with price action holding above key support levels, I'm confident in adding to this position. The plan is to ride this trend higher, targeting further upside as long as the bullish structure remains intact. Keep an eye on how the pair reacts to upcoming resistance levels to manage the trade effectively.
Long
by trader9224
How to Develop a Trading MethodYou don’t have to develop your own methods but never just depend on learning somebody else's method as if all you had to do was follow instructions. You need to understand and make it your own. Even if you don’t want to design your methods, approach this as a learning exercise. Let's structure how to go about developing a method. First start with a bassline and then work your way through the process. 1. Start with a repeatable market structure pattern. You can also use an indicator, trendline or whatever it is you relate to and can see 2. Understand the essence of your pattern and use this as a bassline to develop from 3. Structure objective trade rules around that pattern. How are you going to enter, place a stop, manage trade, and exit 4. Test it and learn. Shane
NYSE:BLDREducation
by ShaneBlankenship
NZDUSD | 15m Trade Plan | Intraday15m current market condition : Took entire buy-side liquidity During killzones: Plan A : Take a short position after a 15m bearish confirmation. Plan B : After inducement is taken, take a long position following a 15m bullish confirmation. Plan C : Wait for the entire sell-side liquidity sweep, then take a long position based on a 15m bullish confirmation. note : It's more likely that the marked demand zone will not be respected by the upcoming market session(s).
by arjTradingofficial
BOJ Raises Interest Rates - Monthly Outlook for USDJPYTaking a look at the monthly timeframe, if you look back in the past, whenever we had a strong bearish engulfing candle, there was usually a second bearish candle afterwards. I believe there is a great chance that this pair will break below the green ascending trendline and eventually reach 130. Some key comments made last night from the BoJ's Governor Ueda: * If possible a US rate cut happens gradually, it could lead to strong a Yen. * The weak Yen was not necessarily the biggest reason for the rate hike this time. * Hard to tell when the next rate hike may be * Does not have 0.50% policy rate in mind as a ceiling * I don't believe the latest rate hike will trigger a strong brake on the economy. Later this afternoon we will get the latest US monetary policy decision. Furthermore, as we all know, the US equity market tends to have an inverted correlation with the Yen. This means if US stocks continue to sell off heading into the elections, we might see some additional strength with the Yen and thus push this pair even lower.
Short
by Michael_Harding
USDJPY - Top Down AnalysisStarting with the weekly timeframe, there's some quite noticable bearish Divergence with price action and RSI leading me to believe prices may continue further south. Let's take a look at the daily timeframe. On the daily timeframe, I have 2 bearish targets but first I need to see a bit of a pullback towards the descending level of resistance. Reason I'm looking for a bullish pullback is because RSI is currently in the oversold territory. We also have a BOJ interest rate decision this evening at 11:00pm EST. Let's take a closer look at the 4 hour timeframe On the 4 hr timeframe I'm waiting for a breakout of the current consolidating range. I'm hoping for a bullish breakout which will lead into my AOI (area of interest) to look for a shorting opportunity. Lastly let's take a look at the 1 hour. On the 1 hour timeframe, it's easier to see how much room to the upside I'm waiting for. If we reach the descending level of resistance, I'll monitor the bullish momentum to ensure I'm not entering a short when bulls are strong. For that reason I have an alert set in place and now all I need to do is wait! That's it - That's all Trade Safe
Short
by Michael_Harding
AUDNZD - Bearish Breakout with 1:3 Setup on 4HrTaking a look at the 4h timeframe, we can see price action broke and held below the ascending trendline. For me this indicates potential topping action. This pair is also heavily overbought on the daily timeframe so a correction at this point shouldn't be too much of a surprise. Cooper prices also continue to get slammed which may contribute to some Aussie weakness. Further more, we don't have any further major economic reports on the docket this week for either NZD or AUD which may cause this pair to correct. The Australian dollar does tend to have a correlation as a Risk-On currency with US equities. Today in the US session we saw both the Dow and SPX lose some of it's bullish momentum. Trade Safe!
Short
by Michael_Harding
2