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Tp

USDCAD long-term is SO bearishAs We all know nothing goes up/down in a straight line, and with all the bearish sentiment for Oil and CAD we are sure that the turning point is near. Of course, one of the most important rules is not to try to catch the turning point (TP) "do not catch a falling knife" *****So we are not saying to short USDCAD now****** In the monthly chart it is clear that since 2007 the pair has done a 5-3-5 correction "(a)-(b)-(c)" for the impulsive downward move that started in 2002 and lasted 5 years. and as a confirmation, that this price action is corrective, we can see it is moving within parallel lines. "impulsive waves do not move in parallel lines". In addition, I highlighted a potential resistance box where we could see the turning point happening. In the weekly chart, we present the RSI divergence, which is the best indication for exhaustion of a trend. Plus, the red box represent an area where a cluster of fibonacci extensions fall which would act as a great resistance for the TP. Again, this analysis is in line with with our analysis for Oil which is almost finishing the bear trend. *******AFTER THE TP****** Elliott Wave analysis and Cyclical analysis is not about predicting the future; its more about adjusting and benefiting before its too late. So we don't know the actual price path after the TP but we are sure that the price will go lower in at least 3 waves "which could be wave (x) (5-3-5) towards the lower trend line in the monthly view" or it could go impulsively down beyond the trend line Happy trading :)
Short
by ResonanceTrading
USD/TRY D1 Perspective I had a request from a friend to analyze USD/TRY: On daily perspective I saw a nice classical Elliot Wave with double zigzag till point E correction waves. Before starting the analyze I want you to eliminate the harmonic pattern that I draw there; First we start with trends and the potential of opening trade. PA (Price Action) creates trend and trends give us opportunity to open a position trade by its steep. On S2 line we had 2 potential of Buy and why we do not Sell on R1.2 is because of its upward steep and we will never Sell on upward trend and never do amateurish scalping and we do not close our deal until either S2 breaks or we see a PA TP Signal which we had it on the top and Also a good Sell Signal at the same time. Remember as a good trader how we open Sell Position is not when ever we see double top just sell on it. Even though we have seen a bearish PA on the top we still should wait ti S 1.1 trend to break and then we can open Sell position with SL of above R 1 + Spread. Since price follows our expectation we will sell any time if price touches the R1.1 with SL of above it. (Remember you must first observe that does the price are going to touch and pull back or it will breaks the trend. You never Sell if your trend is broke out. You follow the price till you reach the Future Expected Price A (FEPA) and if price does not change direction; you will follow the same strategy till you reach FEPB. (If R 1.1 dose not break). Since we have S 2 Trend line seems to be stronger than R1.1 you also can expect an uptrend around that area. If we see S 2 Breaks R 1.1 we get ready to see a harmonic pattern in future. Our expected Patterns and Elliot are not our signal, it's just a map and idea that we can look at them some time. We trade based on your best friend (trend) and PA. Any time if the harmonic pattern is completed you can expect for a bullish movement. Remember you will close all the sell position if R 1.1 breaks and will not open any position till you reach on 1 safe trend. Hold is also an option. FEP are found by Orbits strategy that I have explained in many of my previous perspective. If you are new to it please read my previous analysis and if still you have problem with it feel free and email me at farsi.masoud@gmail.com
by mspdash
1